I don't really get Smeagol at all but that's not really relevant, the real question i have is who the hell are his investors and just how does he convince them to let him keep losing their money year after year?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
What? No mention of Tesla? How can that be? Where am I going to get all of the research on all of the competitors? 
Good point. But there’s nothing stopping the TMC crowd from buying GM and shutting down its ICE business, eh? Should be doable with our newfound riches!
Thank you! I hadn't thought about this. As more people invest in the ARK funds, they get an influx of capital. If they just invest the new capital in their other holdings, they might be able to keep TSLA within bounds without selling it off. Their trades are public. Could someone look at the trades and figure out whether there was net buying? (I could do this if I was sober. Maybe tomorrow. Or the next day.)
I recall when this was discussed here and between youtubers the consensus was: if Spacex valuation is low then $TSLA will go up, and will go down if Spacex has a higher than expected valuation. Over the long term $TSLA should be better off without the holding company. But if without the holding company and without additional Tesla share bonuses mean Elon is highly likely to decide to focus his time on Spacex/Mars and relinquish his Tesla CEO role then I would imagine most Tesla investors would rather have him as the CEO of the holding company.
Of course, others feel differently on the holding company concept.
I don't agree with the general sentiments on this board about Lidar.
If one day Tesla adds Lidar to its FDS, I will be super happy. And I think it is one of Elon's strength.
Of course I don't know the state of Elon's great mind. But it is not necessary to expel Lidar just because Elon used to make fun of it.
If Elon decided to add it, then it will be for the best of FSD. He did that with FSD software stack rewrite. He ditched the idea of excessive automation in Model 3 ramp up. He discard the idea of developing another chasse for Y and instead share Y's with 3's, which avoided basically another attempt of suicide.
It is a strength, not weakness to revise, backtrack, rebuilt, and reshape the design.
Not gonna hit disagree cause you're already gonna get plenty of those. In your post, you didn't list a single reason, valid or not, as to why Lidar is necessary. Do you know how Lidar works and why many of us believe its fools gold?
One of the reason sited was that Lidar is too expensive. I don't think that's a good argument. Tesla and SpaceX is built on the strength of cutting costs. If it is an obstacle that kills Lidar, then how do you value Tesla 's relentless effort of cutting down battery's cost, which a lot of people believed that was one of the factors to make EV a no go to begin with.
To say Lidar is useless because it is too expensive fall into the same category.
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There is a fine difference I am not sure if I made it clear. I really am not so familiar with Lidar, only know that it has draw backs, such as it cannot penetrate fog, and will treat plastic bag as solid material.
But can anybody say that they know 100% of FSD in Tesla and that Lidar will add absolute no value to it down the road?
My point is not so much about whether Lidar is good or bad. My point is if Tesla decide to add Lidar later on, then it is a show of strength, not so much of an engineering failure.
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Buckminster
Well-Known Member
When will we find out how much the benchmark funds are holding? If they are holding very little, this explains S&P inclusion being muted. We still have a sizeable short squeeze to come in addition - 6% of float.
They are all geniuses. Holding TSLA has taught me the importance of offsetting gains with losses. The more you lose the less tax you pay.
This thread might suit your needs better:
Autonomous Car Progress
@diplomat33 will help you with your arguments.
I think adding extra radars (i.e. to "see through" obstructions behind/to the side of the vehicle, like how most automakers handle their backup warning systems and lane change warnings) would be more useful than adding lidar, which doesn't offer enough additional functionality over merely processing the existing cameras to determine depth from motion.
Wow. Without counting, it looks like they plan to double the number of Superchargers in Germany (and likely everywhere else, didn´t check).
Mo City
Active Member
This is not the correct thread to debate the technical merits of Lidar, but Elon just tweeted Level 5 would happen this year, even without Dojo. This doesn't leave much room for Lidar.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1344810193952014336
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1345208391958888448
Perhaps Lidar could be added several years from now after Level 5 on Tesla's is taken for granted if the additonal cost becomes relatively small.
Dear Mom and Dad,
I am happy to update you that your net worth has only dropped 10% this quarter.
You can keep track of the ETF based funds here: 199 ETFs with Tesla Inc (TSLA) exposure | ETF.com
For the mutual funds I think you have to wait for the quarterly 13F filings. (Which is 45 after the end of the quarter.) So in the middle of February we will find out what they did by the end of 2020, and then in the middle of May we will see what they did in Q1.
The next 13F is also when we will probably see what Berkshire bought and wanted to keep secret.
Well yes. I always start with Rembrandt when introducing strangers to the cultural delights of the Low Countries. But this will do fine.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
@truth_tesla
·
4h
This is huge news: if GF3 alone makes 550k Teslas, then Fremont alone would bring 2021 Tesla production above 1 million units. Current Street expectations for 2021 are 777k units. Big TSLA price target upgrades if Tesla guides for 1m 2021 units in their Q4 earnings report.
https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1346276277771243521
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
From Gary Black:
$8T S&P-bm’d active mgrs who hold no $TSLA (vs 1.7% bm) because they think it’s overpriced are the new shorts. At 1.7% bm, S&P active mgrs would need 190M shares = 25% of float. With TSLA already surging, buying begets more buying as active mgrs fear falling behind bms and peers.
https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1346265693021470720
Anyone here think that that the benchmarks still need to buy 25% of the float? Plus 6% shorts from the old shorts...
I just love $TSLA - the gift that keeps on giving.
I'm hoping that any remaining squeeze is delayed to the summer so that I can tax efficiently roll out my LEAPS (and leverage up). I was going to deleverage post inclusion but won't now as long as there is still a chance of a squeeze.
if correct, yes, over 1 million vehicles in 2021 would seem well beyond market expectations
that said, looking at a couple of descriptions to me it is unclear whether this is a reference to the targeted capacity run rate to be hit at some point in 2021 or the total 2021 production targeted
a few people on twitter, and that Tesmanian post take this to be the latter
I’m agnostic with somewhat of a lean to the former
I think it’s more likely that Tesla’s instructions to suppliers are to provide parts for X vehicles per week by Date A and Y vehicles per week by Date B. Now, you might ask, what if the 550K rate at Giga Shanghai is just where adding up such targets gets you to for the year as a whole?
- that is possible, but I doubt the most likely scenario because
- it is a very round number, particularly the asserted original 500,000 (adding up a series of ramp stages for varying numbers of weeks would be unlikely to hit a very round number)
and
- if Tesla were to average 550k rate for the year, they’re either there now (in which case I think we’d of heard leaks re massive ramp, and given Y deliveries started recently IIRC that would be a massively steeply executed ramp) or, they expect to be considerably higher by year end than a 550k/yr rate. latter is not impossible, but I believe would involve new lines not discussed to date. With Giga Berlin setting up the first Roadrunner/Body Structure late this year, I doubt Tesla would ramp additional lines on older vehicle and battery design.
I’m all for Tesla announcing 1M guidance in a few weeks or turning out to overdeliver to 1M as the year progresses, but, for now I have some doubts re these reports on Shanghai 2021 production.
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