Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Featsbeyond50]

I know it was said in jest, but this is the most amazing idea I've heard in some time.

My impression is Elon loves this sort of thing. If the idea got back to him, it just might happen.

 

[DFibRL8R]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2021/01/08/tesla-brakes/

Not surprisingly, NHTSA found no evidence of vehicle defect as cause of unintended accelerations.

From the article:
Brian Sparks, the investor who filed the petition, said the rates of complaints about sudden acceleration incidents in Teslas were “astonishingly high” compared with other kinds of vehicles but that he accepted the findings of the federal review.
“If NHTSA says there is no defect then I consider the matter settled,” Sparks said. “I appreciate NHTSA’s work.”

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

For those that haven't seen it, I highly recommend the video where the very first Model S owners got their key(fobs) handed over. I'll admit it - I was crying (tears of joy). People that had put down big deposits (I think they were 40k, but they might have been more), many 2+ years before Model S shipped, on the hope that a real EV might come along and that this would be the one, and that it'd be more than half decent.

Such a setup for a complete letdown.

And then those first owners went driving and started reporting back - it wasn't just good, or as good as they hoped it would be; it was AMAZING!

That was one of the pieces that got me invested (and a $40k Model X reservation).

Who is the guy MCing the event? I like Elon's style so much better. No offense to whoever you are. You did a lot better job than I would have done.

 

[reardencode]

Smart money is going to exercise most of those options so as to postpone capital gains tax. That won't pressure the stock at all.

Exercised my remaining Jan 15 550c Friday morning. Couldn't stomach the taxes of selling. Sold basically all other equities to finance the exercise.
Still have some Jan 29 750c that I can't afford to exercise. Gonna be a painful tax quarter (oh the troubles we face).

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Smart money is going to exercise most of those options so as to postpone capital gains tax. That won't pressure the stock at all.

I've been wondering if we'll start getting pressure on the stock after March. The idea is, the gains for people who jumped on the train after the Corona dip will start turning to long term gains.

 

[dl003]

I've been wondering if we'll start getting pressure on the stock after March. The idea is, the gains for people who jumped on the train after the Corona dip will start turning to long term gains.

IMO, people who could weather 2020 in TSLA are not in it for the short term gain, well most of them anyway.

 

[Singuy]

Looking at Nio I now realize this is not a company designed to make money. It's a company backed by government money to established a tech race with Tesla. If there's one ev company that MUST focus on getting their margins up is nio, considering they are allowing customers to buy the car without paying for the batteries. So you would think they want to reduce the cost of battery pack manufacturing, not by complicating things by chasing solid state and a bunch of expensive equipment on a car powered by a computer that doesn't even work for such equipments just so they can put up some marketing numbers like "7x faster than tesla fsd".

Tesla has one focus, cheaper, faster, easier to produce, increase margins, increase profitability. Everything they do is geared to this. And if your company is not focused on this, then you are missing the point as being a publically traded company.

Nio is looking to be the opposite. They will continue to lose massive amounts of money or price their cars so high that it's not competitive just to chase after Tesla. This is Tesla's pace of innovation at work..other competitors are destroying themselves just to stand out which is crazy to me.

 

[dl003]

Looking at Nio I now realize this is not a company designed to make money. It's a company backed by government money to established a tech race with Tesla. If there's one ev company that MUST focus on getting their margins up is nio, considering they are allowing customers to buy the car without paying for the batteries. So you would think they want to reduce the cost of battery pack manufacturing, not by complicating things by chasing solid state and a bunch of expensive equipment on a car powered by a computer that doesn't even work for such equipments just so they can put up some marketing numbers like "7x faster than tesla fsd".

Tesla has one focus, cheaper, faster, easier to produce, increase margins, increase profitability. Everything they do is geared to this.

Nio is looking to be the opposite. They will continue to lose massive amounts of money or price their cars so high that it's not competitive just to chase after Tesla. This is Tesla's pace of innovation at work..other competitors are destroying themselves just to stand out which is crazy to me.

Nio doesnt even have its own factory floor for the CEO to sleep on. Checkmate.

 

[hacer]

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry predicts Tesla stock will collapse like the housing bubble: 'Enjoy it while it lasts'

what is everyone's take on this article while we all celebrating here

It could collapse but not until after Burry capitulates. So that's probably TSLA $2200 or so. It could collapse back to $1400 then.

 

[AudubonB]

Maybe a bad idea. A little too “red pill”.
Q is also other things.

I side with @lafrisbee here. Think of....

Q: in mathematics, the Set of Rational Numbers Those of us in the investment world have to love that connotation

Q: In physics, it is the symbol for Coulombs. More prosaically expressed, the fundamental electric charge. Oh, yes.

Q: In thermodynamics, it is the symbol for how much heat is transferred in any thermodynamic process (only subtly different from a joule)

Q: In engineering, it is the volumetric flow rate. A critical element when understanding renewable energy.



On the other hand, Nissan’s ‘s Infiniti line has a Q50 and Q60, and there was a Q70.

 

[Discoducky]

If you've heard of ARK, but haven't yet invested in their ETFs or just haven't heard Cathie speak, this video is particularly good as she covers all her bases including where she was wrong on several points.

Such a great free resource for investors.

 

[kanweg]

Looking at Nio I now realize this is not a company designed to make money. It's a company backed by government money to established a tech race with Tesla. If there's one ev company that MUST focus on getting their margins up is nio, considering they are allowing customers to buy the car without paying for the batteries. So you would think they want to reduce the cost of battery pack manufacturing, not by complicating things by chasing solid state and a bunch of expensive equipment on a car powered by a computer that doesn't even work for such equipments just so they can put up some marketing numbers like "7x faster than tesla fsd".

Not selling the battery but renting it plus charging for charging is an interesting business model. The following disadvantages perceived by the general public are addressed. Quicker change than pumping gas possible. No worries about battery degradation. That also goes for resale of the value and for purchasing a used vehicle. The initial price of the vehicle is lower. In case better batteries with better range are invented, you get to use those over time too.

For an EV company adopting this strategy the advantages are a competitive edge with the lower sticker price, plus revenues over the lifetime of the vehicle. While the disadvantage is that the battery has to be pre-financed by the EV company, the revenue could well make up for that. Don’t forget that Chinese companies/government have a long term view.

A disadvantage of this business model is that this requires more batteries than cars,

Also with respect to charging there are advantages. It can be done more gradually. No need for Powerpacks for peak shaving like Tesla does at SuPerChargers. The batteries in store could also be used in a virtual grid, earning money despite not being rented out. Great for more renewables in the grid.

 

[Fobble]

Curious what folks think a realistic value for Tesla is in the next year or so. I always believed they would be a trillion dollar company but to me it seems the stock may be a bit ahead of itself. Don't get me wrong, I am big Tesla fan and I definitely want them to succeed on all fronts (energy, FSD, cars etc). However, I am interested in what folks think about the rationale behind the current valuation and how much more growth to expect.

Every company's stock price reflects future expectation of the company's success. Most companies are looked into for the next 1 or 2 years due to lack of visibility beyond that point. For Tesla, investors see (pretty) clear path to sustained growth of about 50%/yearly in the next 5 years, possibly 10. There has been multiple "rough" calculations on future Tesla value in this forum in the past. The latest one is from Youtuber "Financial Education", Jeremy showed current TSLA SP is about half of what is going to be in 5 years. Keep in mind that every day, week, month and year goes by, the SP will be always adjusted to the relative future of 1/2/3/5 years (or whatever), as long as Tesla still shows clear path to growth.

 

[RandyS]

Who is the guy MCing the event? I like Elon's style so much better. No offense to whoever you are. You did a lot better job than I would have done.

That would be George Blankenship, former VP Worldwide Retail at Tesla (Sales and Ownership, and Store Development and Design). He worked for Gap, Microsoft, and Apple and was responsible for designing the retail store experience for Tesla (among many other things). I got a chance to chat with him at a Supercharger event in Hawthorne in 2012...Nice guy...

 

[CorneliusXX]

Not selling the battery but renting it plus charging for charging is an interesting business model. The following disadvantages perceived by the general public are addressed. Quicker change than pumping gas possible. No worries about battery degradation. That also goes for resale of the value and for purchasing a used vehicle. The initial price of the vehicle is lower. In case better batteries with better range are invented, you get to use those over time too.

For an EV company adopting this strategy the advantages are a competitive edge with the lower sticker price, plus revenues over the lifetime of the vehicle. While the disadvantage is that the battery has to be pre-financed by the EV company, the revenue could well make up for that. Don’t forget that Chinese companies/government have a long term view.

A disadvantage of this business model is that this requires more batteries than cars,

Also with respect to charging there are advantages. It can be done more gradually. No need for Powerpacks for peak shaving like Tesla does at SuPerChargers. The batteries in store could also be used in a virtual grid, earning money despite not being rented out. Great for more renewables in the grid.

there can still be peak shaving concerns but it works out slightly different to supercharger peaks. If too many people swap batteries in too short a period of time then the swap station will be out of action until new batteries charge. This can be designed out by sizing the grid connection to the rate of battery swapping (e.g. if it takes 5 minutes to swap a battery and 60 minutes to charge a battery then you need to size the connection to be able to charge 60/5=12 batteries simultaneously) but that could still be expensive to buy energy at the time the peak demand is needed.

 

[Singuy]

Not selling the battery but renting it plus charging for charging is an interesting business model. The following disadvantages perceived by the general public are addressed. Quicker change than pumping gas possible. No worries about battery degradation. That also goes for resale of the value and for purchasing a used vehicle. The initial price of the vehicle is lower. In case better batteries with better range are invented, you get to use those over time too.

For an EV company adopting this strategy the advantages are a competitive edge with the lower sticker price, plus revenues over the lifetime of the vehicle. While the disadvantage is that the battery has to be pre-financed by the EV company, the revenue could well make up for that. Don’t forget that Chinese companies/government have a long term view.

A disadvantage of this business model is that this requires more batteries than cars,

Also with respect to charging there are advantages. It can be done more gradually. No need for Powerpacks for peak shaving like Tesla does at SuPerChargers. The batteries in store could also be used in a virtual grid, earning money despite not being rented out. Great for more renewables in the grid.

You explained why the business model is good for the customers..but how is it good for the business when NIO has to carry the weight of inferior batteries when new tech comes out when in Tesla's case, the customers are the one left holding the bag(and they should). Also revenue from superchargers to Tesla in China will be great as most people can't charge at home. So that's like selling them the inferior battery pack AND charging them rent.

Nio's has every incentive to SLOW battery innovation while decreasing manufacturing cost or else they end holding too many bags as customers only want the best. They are doing the exact opposite.

 

[ggr]

Not selling the battery but renting it plus charging for charging is an interesting business model. The following disadvantages perceived by the general public are addressed. Quicker change than pumping gas possible. No worries about battery degradation. That also goes for resale of the value and for purchasing a used vehicle. The initial price of the vehicle is lower. In case better batteries with better range are invented, you get to use those over time too.

For an EV company adopting this strategy the advantages are a competitive edge with the lower sticker price, plus revenues over the lifetime of the vehicle. While the disadvantage is that the battery has to be pre-financed by the EV company, the revenue could well make up for that. Don’t forget that Chinese companies/government have a long term view.

A disadvantage of this business model is that this requires more batteries than cars,

Also with respect to charging there are advantages. It can be done more gradually. No need for Powerpacks for peak shaving like Tesla does at SuPerChargers. The batteries in store could also be used in a virtual grid, earning money despite not being rented out. Great for more renewables in the grid.

This was the fundamental model of the long-failed Israeli company Better Place. I was a consultant to a venture company that wanted to bring the model to Australia. I can't go into detail, but the conclusion was that the only thing going for that way of doing things was that it capitalized on people's range anxiety and familiarity with gas stations. As soon as customers got familiar with EVs in day to day life, they'd buy something else. Also the specifics of the chosen vehicle for the Oz market was just plain stupid (they wanted to convert Holden Commodore/ Opel Senator to BEV).

 

[mickle]

Not selling the battery but renting it plus charging for charging is an interesting business model. The following disadvantages perceived by the general public are addressed. Quicker change than pumping gas possible. No worries about battery degradation. That also goes for resale of the value and for purchasing a used vehicle. The initial price of the vehicle is lower. In case better batteries with better range are invented, you get to use those over time too.

For an EV company adopting this strategy the advantages are a competitive edge with the lower sticker price, plus revenues over the lifetime of the vehicle. While the disadvantage is that the battery has to be pre-financed by the EV company, the revenue could well make up for that. Don’t forget that Chinese companies/government have a long term view.

A disadvantage of this business model is that this requires more batteries than cars,

Also with respect to charging there are advantages. It can be done more gradually. No need for Powerpacks for peak shaving like Tesla does at SuPerChargers. The batteries in store could also be used in a virtual grid, earning money despite not being rented out. Great for more renewables in the grid.

Another disadvantage for a swappable pack is that you can't make it a structural pack and integrate it into the car body like Tesla will be doing. So their cars will be heavier and more costly to manufacture.

 

[Fobble]

You explained why the business model is good for the customers..but how is it good for the business when NIO has to carry the weight of inferior batteries

That's why they push for solid state battery for reliability and re-uses, stated in post #235084

#235084 heltok, Today at 4:49 AM

 

[Discoducky]

Another disadvantage for a swappable pack is that you can't make it a structural pack and integrate it into the car body like Tesla will be doing. So their cars will be heavier and more costly to manufacture.

Agreed, it seems they are competing with the 2015 S as opposed to the 2022 S. So about 7 years behind.