Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

What are the maths on the recall cost?
185k screens at $1000 each
185k hours of work at $200/h each?
Around 200M cost? Any estimates plus or minus or that’s in the ballpark?

Nope, already covered above. The screen isn't a problem. The repair currently costs ~$450 out of warranty. ($120 parts, $330 labor.) Figure that parts/labor are probably marked up 100%, so it would cost Tesla $225/car. Or ~$35M to replace them all. (Which would come out of the warranty reserves.)

And a significant portion have either already been replaced, upgraded to MCU2, or have been totaled. So it would be less expensive.

 

[UrsS]

" . . . it is the Tegra daughterboard that Tesla charges $120 for. Total cost, including labor, is closer to $400."

Wait a minute. If Tesla sells the daughterboard for $120 it should cost them somewhere between $12 and $60. Normal mark-up for parts between manufacturing and end user are 100% or more.
Labor is what? About 2 hours? (I really do not know) that would be $40 to the mechanic and about the same in payroll expenses, add $10 per hour for the shops space = $100 total labor. So total cost to Tesla per replacement is more like $150 or so. Also not all 158,000 cars manufactured with this defect are still on the road, and many have surpassed the 100,000 miles mark.
My guess is 50,000 actual warranty repairs at a cost o $150 each = $7.5million.

That is how I see this, no big deal.

 

[Tyler34]

My guess is 50,000 actual warranty repairs at a cost o $150 each = $7.5million.

So the members of this thread could cover the cost of this from todays gains alone. Got it.

 

[MP3Mike]

many have surpassed the 100,000 miles mark.

There is no time, or mileage, limit on recalls.

 

[Drumheller]

They charged me $1700 to replace mine a few years ago, but I'm pretty sure the actual cost of doing the replace should actually be closer to your number. I informed them that i knew that it was the chip issue but there was no acknowledgment of a general problem at the service level.

They have told us in a recent email that the cost will be refunded in the near future.

I paid nearly $2500. I have not received an email regarding reimbursement. Does anyone have a contact email for information at Tesla regarding this recall? Thank you.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wu Wa: 【Jan 14】"A batch of MIC MODEL3 with protective film appeared in the Shanghai factory. Obviously, these M3 will be exported to overseas markets and they are right-hand drive vehicles."

So, perhaps MiC LFP Models 3 headed to Oz? Or Japan? Maybe even the UK? Anybody hear anything from their local showroom?

Cheers!

 

[Watts_Up]

It seems that the computers could be easily refurbish by replacing the faulty ship using a specially designed soldering device:

 

[Curt Renz]

Bloomberg - 2 hours ago:

 

[gabeincal]

Flyover done with no obvious results. I've concluded a couple basic observations based on today in Fremont:

- Roadrunner is still being actively built. Top small building is being actively worked on, who knows what this is for?
- Parking lots of Roadrunner are still very busy and full of materials
- Factory delivery lot is full of 3 & Y's, very very few S & X can be seen. Perhaps last deliveries of these before refresh?
- Hardly any S & X visible inside the factory lot.
- Gigapresses are most likely operational by now, though we cannot observe operation during the flyover
- Interestingly there is more concrete mixing going on near the gigapresses.
- The large cranes near the presses are still present though I never see them operating...?

Enjoy

 

[MXWing]

Part of me wonders if ARKX is a play to do away with 10% holding limitation of TSLA in the other ARK funds.

They can pull a Ron Baron and don't care if its 90% of the fund. LOL

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

What’s everyone’s estimates on how much the stock will tank from the NHTSA recall?
Hopefully a lesson for Tesla to be proactive in future, as it would have cost less

 

[StealthP3D]

What’s everyone’s estimates on how much the stock will tank from the NHTSA recall?
Hopefully a lesson for Tesla to be proactive in future, as it would have cost less

It would have cost more in actual dollars and they had fewer of them back when this issue became known.

In either case the amounts are not worth worrying about and anyone who hadn't already priced this in hasn't been paying attention.

 

[mekberg]

What’s everyone’s estimates on how much the stock will tank from the NHTSA recall?
Hopefully a lesson for Tesla to be proactive in future, as it would have cost less

The care bear is back.

IMO the stock will be less impacted by the recall than by the Model Y crash test results.

 

[WattsHappening]

What’s everyone’s estimates on how much the stock will tank from the NHTSA recall?
Hopefully a lesson for Tesla to be proactive in future, as it would have cost less

Dude.....

 

[goinfraftw]

Reminded myself today:

14 days into 2021.
6 days until a full, competent (for the 1st time in 4 years) US government with a forward-facing EV mandate.
345 days in 2021 with a full, competent US government with a forward-facing sweeping EV mandate.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

It would have cost more in actual dollars and they had fewer of them back when this issue became known.

The email from Tesla about an extended warranty on the MCU1 eMMC went out after the NHTSA investigation
They could have acted well before
Tesla has a rep for poor service & this just adds fuel, costing them future sales

Check the comments section from S/X owners - it’s pretty ugly
NHTSA asks Tesla to recall Model S and Model X over MCU fiasco - Electrek

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Self-Driving Teslas Expected in Musk’s Boring Co Tunnels Next Year + Tesla Solar, TSLA Shorting" | Tesla Daily (15:55)

 

[StealthP3D]

The email from Tesla about an extended warranty on the MCU1 eMMC went out after the NHTSA investigation
They could have acted well before
Tesla has a rep for poor service & this just adds fuel, costing them future sales

Check the comments section from S/X owners - it’s pretty ugly
NHTSA asks Tesla to recall Model S and Model X over MCU fiasco - Electrek

The primary way Tesla could have reduced their costs on this is by catching and acting on the problem more quickly (by switching to a board that had more durable memory chips a little sooner). But these things can take time. The total number is not that high in the bigger picture, recalls are a cost of doing business, the trick is to keep them a minor cost. And it does seem Tesla has done exactly that since the ramp of their first real mass production car, the Model 3. Despite having been in production a bit over 3 years, I believe there have been zero recalls. As production volumes are constantly increasing, this kind of relatively minor Model S recall is not really significant. You also haven't provided any compelling reason why you think it will cost more to do now (as a recall) than to have replaced them as a matter of course a couple of years ago when the new boards with better memory probably would have cost 20% more. Now they can buy them in volume and they have more service centers with which to perform the work.

 

[capster]

Part of me wonders if ARKX is a play to do away with 10% holding limitation of TSLA in the other ARK funds.

They can pull a Ron Baron and don't care if its 90% of the fund. LOL

I never mentioned this to anyone. In early 2018 before I was a member of TMC and right before I made my largest TSLA purchase, I had a dream that I recalled on waking.

It was very brief. I was in a corridor with a gray wall that had a large red Tesla logo on it. The only other thing I was aware of was that this corridor was in space. That’s it.

I try to make very sure that my brain and my gut are aligned before I make any investment. I took this dream to mean my subconscious was fully on board with my conscious mind and my gut. Also, I did and still do take the dream as having been a literal forecast by my subconscious: Tesla will have business in space too.

I took the plunge on shares immediately thereafter. Aaaand, those shares spent most of the following two years under water.

Fortunately, they, um, recovered.

Now I make it a point to get plenty of quality REM sleep. I’ve a Duxiana 6006 bed, linen sheets (which are absolutely the bomb), neck memory foam as well as down pillows, and a down duvet from Feathered Friends.

Mmmm, good REM sleep — one of life’s great luxuries and it can pay dividends in more ways than one.

edit: Which, now that I think about it, is another good reason for me to avoid options: Trading options would most likely keep me awake at night.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

You also haven't provided any compelling reason why you think it will cost more to do now (as a recall) than to have replaced them as a matter of course a couple of years ago when the new boards with better memory probably would have cost 20% more.

I did actually explain why, but maybe this from the comment section of the article linked makes it a bit clearer:

“Seems the ‘let the fires burn’ philosophy is starting to catch up with them. I wager more delays, deferrals and then parts shortages, appointment re-schedules... the forums are already blowing up with service centre issues.”

Clearer yet?