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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Ahh thanks. Are LEAPS part of long term holdings or sold on a bounce?

Also over time, this is further concentrating more and more TSLA as part of your total networth?

Not that there is anything wrong with that. :D

Leaps sold at 100-300% profit or so, and yes long-term concentration in TSLA is the goal with side revenue to stay retired.
 

I think that "Street High" technically refers only to Wallstreet Analysts. ARK Invest, although they have their own analytics dept, is more likely classified as an "Institutional Investor" with their portfolio of ETF offerings.

ARK Invest is in the same category as Ron Baron's fund, who have an equally high TSLA PT, although possibly an even longer investment horizon. Ron had this to say on June 9, 2020, when the SP closed at $188.13 (split-adjusted):

Tesla investor Ron Baron expects exponential growth for Elon Musk's car company and SpaceX

Hmm that's 10x from $188 so just 2.2x to go on Leg 1 to $1,900/share ($9,500 pre-split)

So, Q4 2022 anyone? Models 3/Y on 3 continents? Sounds golden to me. :)

Cheers!
 
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Here is the Wedbush note. Dan Ives was previously forecasting only 2 million vehicle deliveries in 2030. That has now been increased to 5.5 million.


upload_2021-1-14_22-14-27.png
 
Not to mention the ultimate wild card that could nuke every price target (Ark being the only exception): FSD becoming legit
Rob Maurer has an extensive discussion today on new NHTSA safety regulations for autonomous vehicles:

Tesla Asks US Gov. to Consider Phones/Tablets as “Driver Controls” | Tesla Daily

 
Rob Maurer has an extensive discussion today on new NHTSA safety regulations for autonomous vehicles:

Tesla Asks US Gov. to Consider Phones/Tablets as “Driver Controls” | Tesla Daily

Anyone who's ever tried to play a video game on a phone or tablet screen versus using a dedicated controller can tell you touch screen controls suck. Give me a steering wheel any day of the week that ends in "y" thanks.
 
Suppose this also happens tomorrow, is it then correct that both call and put options with that strike and expiry that day expire worthless?

If so, that would make this a bit like 'number 0' on a roulette, where everyone but the house loses, or no?

I used to think the same but now I'm not sure that it is this simple. Pin risk -- if I understood it correctly -- implies that it's hard to make the right hedging decisions when the underlying price hovers around the strike.

h/t @FrankSG who brought this concept to my attention.

However, given the many Fridays where we've seen TSLA pinned very close to a certain strike price (and that pin being maintained AH), I cannot fathom that the strong forces in the market do not collect an upside on this. The question is, is the dog wagging the tail or the tail wagging the dog. I assume the net result of

(- hedging risk due to pin) + (all premium collected) >> 0

i.e. that the fact that all the premium MM's collected they can keep by far outweighs the long-term realized cost of the pin risk (which makes intuitive sense -- if it did not, MM's would raise implied volatility and thus option prices until this condition is fulfilled)
 
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"Holdier than thou." I like that.

In fairness, there is a lot of chatter about options on this thread. I agree there is something to be learned from it.

I also think some folks may be led down the garden path and think options are somehow the preferred way to invest especially given the amount of this chatter and the crowing about successes. We don’t hear so much about the folks who have blown the bottom out of their financial boat with options.

I had FOMO in the winter of 2018 and thought the market would soon cotton on to Tesla’s great future. If I had traded options instead of buying shares on that thought about the market clueing in soon, I would have been sunk.

Predicting the future well ahead of others is notoriously difficult.

Timing options successfully is notoriously difficult.

For success, both require talent along with access to the right information and tools as well as experience. Excelling in one, especially at the upper reaches of performance, will pull you away from peak performance in the other in my opinion.

I believe each requires different ways of thinking, different states of mind, and probably different personality types because they are very different investment practices. In other words, people have to choose what suits them.

You can be proud of your investing track record. Though and not to put too fine a point on it, the early in, meaningful buy, and long hold strategy will in my experience stack up favorably against it; quite so in fact. Plus, one gets more delicious REM sleep. ;)

edit: This is not to say a hold strategy is without risks or strain. Far from it. The summer of 2019 saw my winter of 2018 investment cut in half. Earlier purchases were down though not quite as much. That was a hard period to go through, but at least ‘all’ I needed to do was hold so my investment survived. I was truly glad to be a member of TMC and following this thread at that point. In fact, I even bought a few more shares at that point with some couch money. But, yeah, I might’ve lost some sleep then. :oops:

Agreed to all of the above. Some points to consider:
- I have no skill or talent for buying options. I use no fancy trading tools, just common sense and "best guess"
- I lost on nearly every options trade for the first 6 months, mostly weeklies, I think I had 1 in 10 success, was small money at that time
- I was phenomenally fortunate to buy mis-priced LEAPS in 2019, nevertheless I had to take the position and that part wasn't luck
- Almost anyone can make big gains on a stock that goes up 700% in a year (some notable exceptions)
- in a "normal" situation and stock, i.e. up/down/sideways, majority of options buyers will lose all their money, majority of option writers will gain

But yes, it's a recipe to get rich and also to lose everything. Needs a government health warning on the packet
 
Hmmm, I seemed to have gained a reputation :oops:

TUI: Trading Under Influence... some of my best trades were TUI

You’re not the only one. NicoV’s attempts to de-liver are also well known. Plus, there is a guy who had to restrict his champagne consumption which he had linked to SP gains because the echo in his cellar quickly became unbearable (or some other reason). There are more.

love your contributions to this forum.
 
Yeah. Folks not familiar with the inverter space may be interested to know that there are essentially two companies that dominate, Solaredge (string inverters, used by Tesla) and Enphase (micro inverters). I have been an investor in ENPH at various times throughout the last two years. My understanding from following the space is that SEDG has been gradually losing marketshare to ENPH, and many installers are switching to ENPH because SEDG inverters have a higher failure rate and less-than-ideal customer support. I can understand from Tesla's perspective why they would want their own solution, especially for Solar Glass, where microinverters don't make practical sense and a continued partnership with SEDG could be considered a liability for the product.

EDIT: Another important point is that when it comes to solar, the bulk of the profits are at the inverter, not the panels or installation, hence why SEDG and ENPH have rocketed to $18b and $25b marketcaps.

SolarEdge are not exactly a string inverter (like, e.g. SMA or Fronius), nor are they an on-module inverter (like e.g. Enphase). Instead with SolarEdge you can put a DCDC converter (aka 'optimiser') on each module and couple to the central inverter (which can then treat them as strings). In principle that can give you the best of both worlds, i.e. the optimisation of each module and the data availability at module level, plus the economies and reliability of centralised inverters. Outside of North America my observation is that SolarEdge have been winning the argument, whereas in USA mostly Enphase were winning the argument.

All that said, it is a logical step for Tesla to integrate the inverter(s) into their offering. Do we know who actually designed them ? And who is manufacturing them ? And the extent to which their is commonality with any of the other Tesla power electronics design family ? Also do we know the design architecture ?
 
On the other hand, I expected some slight negative reaction after the Q4 P&D numbers were released (just because Tesla fell slightly short of that 500k number) but instead TSLA took off like a rocket.

This is why I preach: Do not attempt to use logic for short term movements--on that time scale, it does not apply.

I think you've missed the bigger picture.

The 450 unit miss on deliveries (on a 500,000 goal from 6 years ago) is HUGE plus for all TSLA investors.

Why? Because it's a proxy for integrity.

Think of how much internal pressure there was to meet that goal . . . yet they missed by a fraction of 1%. In any normal, but less honest, company, that goal would have been "met" by fudging the numbers.

Frankly, I am thrilled they missed the goal by such a small amount as it allows us a rare glimpse into the internal workings at Tesla. What we see is tremendous integrity, something that's very much NOT a given in so many other firms (Nikola) and in entire countries (fill in the blank ________), where IP is considered a "suggestion" and that mindset seems to extend into other areas as well . . . .
 
But yes, it's a recipe to get rich and also to lose everything. Needs a government health warning on the packet

The German government is working hard on that health warning label....albeit in a stupid way by limiting the losses that can be written off against gains (for tax) in options trading (and other derivatives) to €20K / annum :eek:. Absolute madness!

Imagine a year where you have 100.000 in trading losses vs. 150.000 in trading wins. So you made 50.000 for the year. In the new system, however, you can only apply 20.000 of the 150.000 wins to the 100.000 losses, and thus have to pay taxes on 150.000 - 20.000 = 130.000

Complete nightmare.
 
The German government is working hard on that health warning label....albeit in a stupid way by limiting the losses that can be written off against gains (for tax) in options trading (and other derivatives) to €20K / annum :eek:. Absolute madness!

Imagine a year where you have 100.000 in trading losses vs. 150.000 in trading wins. So you made 50.000 for the year. In the new system, however, you can only apply 20.000 of the 150.000 wins to the 100.000 losses, and thus have to pay taxes on 150.000 - 20.000 = 130.000

Complete nightmare.

Ah, this is what you are referring to the other day. Doesn't sound like a warning, more like a money-grab. This is the sort of nonsense the Belgian government would try, I hop they don't pick up on it.

Right now you can deduct the costs paid for options against the sales, to get an absolute amount, which seems fair. On shares you pay tax on all profits, but cannot claim against any losses - kind of encourages options trading, I'd say. Plus there's a tax at the moment of shares trade, but not on options, so yeah, leverage up!

Again, no capital-gains on private trading accounts, yet... was expected to be introduced this year as an olive-branch from the right side of the coalition government to placate the left, but didn't materialise yet.
 
Anyone who's ever tried to play a video game on a phone or tablet screen versus using a dedicated controller can tell you touch screen controls suck. Give me a steering wheel any day of the week that ends in "y" thanks.

My guess would be the phone is not for the rider, (or owner) to actually drive the car, but more aid it in situations where it gets stuck. E.g. draw a path around some weird obstacle onto a weird surface.
 
I think you've missed the bigger picture.

The 450 unit miss on deliveries (on a 500,000 goal from 6 years ago) is HUGE plus for all TSLA investors.

Why? Because it's a proxy for integrity.

Think of how much internal pressure there was to meet that goal . . . yet they missed by a fraction of 1%. In any normal, but less honest, company, that goal would have been "met" by fudging the numbers.

Frankly, I am thrilled they missed the goal by such a small amount as it allows us a rare glimpse into the internal workings at Tesla. What we see is tremendous integrity, something that's very much NOT a given in so many other firms (Nikola) and in entire countries (fill in the blank ________), where IP is considered a "suggestion" and that mindset seems to extend into other areas as well . . . .

*I* haven’t missed anything. The whole point of my post was that the market often does not react as logic would lead you to believe.
 
Tesla is liquidating Model S and Model X inventory by the end of the month as refresh nears - Electrek

'Electrek has learned from sources familiar with the matter that Tesla has instructed employees to sell all Model S and Model X inventory in stores across all markets.

Tesla aims to have absolutely no Model S or Model X in inventory by the end of the month.'

Just as a data point, I asked the Princeton, NJ showroom for a model X test drive and they said they don’t have one and don’t expect to until March...
 
SolarEdge are not exactly a string inverter (like, e.g. SMA or Fronius), nor are they an on-module inverter (like e.g. Enphase). Instead with SolarEdge you can put a DCDC converter (aka 'optimiser') on each module and couple to the central inverter (which can then treat them as strings). In principle that can give you the best of both worlds, i.e. the optimisation of each module and the data availability at module level, plus the economies and reliability of centralised inverters. Outside of North America my observation is that SolarEdge have been winning the argument, whereas in USA mostly Enphase were winning the argument.

All that said, it is a logical step for Tesla to integrate the inverter(s) into their offering. Do we know who actually designed them ? And who is manufacturing them ? And the extent to which their is commonality with any of the other Tesla power electronics design family ? Also do we know the design architecture ?

Dedicated thread here in the Tesla Energy forum: Tesla Unveils New Tesla Brand Solar Inverter

Would be a good place to ask this without getting too off topic.
 
Tesla is liquidating Model S and Model X inventory by the end of the month as refresh nears - Electrek

'Electrek has learned from sources familiar with the matter that Tesla has instructed employees to sell all Model S and Model X inventory in stores across all markets.

Tesla aims to have absolutely no Model S or Model X in inventory by the end of the month.'

Makes sense - they haven't released anything yet as they don't want to Osbourne-effect their current stock whilst they have some left to sell.
Hoping that the official refresh news will come out on the 27th with the earnings call, or very soon after :)
 
I think all IRAs allow covered puts to be sold and all require you to fill out a form. It's not in the account by default.
This is my wife's IRA account which is the first and only brokerage account she's ever had. I actually had her fill out the forms to get approval for options last year but it was denied because of her lack of experience and the "conservative" goal she described when originally opening the account. The truth is she is not keen on "risk" which is why she had me sell the TSLA in her account. It was to "protect" her enormous gains. I convinced her to put in the order to re-buy at a lower price because with it being the same number of shares at a much lower price there would still be a pile of cash in the account after the buy (should it happen) that still had over 12% CAGR from the original contributions.