Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Silentk]

Hmmm, I seemed to have gained a reputation

TUI: Trading Under Influence... some of my best trades were TUI

You may want to google Stephen Perkins and the oil-futures drunk trading incident

 

[2daMoon]

Looks like the roller coaster is on the uphill cogs this morning. Wheeeee

I like listening to the clunk, clunk, clunk as it ascends.

Not as keen as I was as a kid on the drops any more.

 

[Unpilot]

Pre-Market likes the Wedbush upgrade. $856 so far

 

[thx1139]

Just as a data point, I asked the Princeton, NJ showroom for a model X test drive and they said they don’t have one and don’t expect to until March...

Just looked at Chicago (within 200 miles) Inventory. 1 S and 2 X.

 

[Chocochip]

New video from Sandy Munro. They have a 2021 Model 3 that they may or may not tear down (not really clear, Sandy suggested just taking a few bits off). For a TSLA investor, it's a bit of an emotional rollercoaster:

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/2021/01/14/tesla-planning-south-austin-show-room.html

"Tesla Inc. plans to build out a showroom and service center in South Austin, public records show."

"Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) intends to spend an estimated $2.5 million to renovate a 30,000-square-foot facility at 500 E. St. Elmo Road, according to a Jan. 12 Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation filing."

"The newest Tesla facility will be located in The Yard, a 200,000-square-foot complex in the redeveloped St. Elmo warehouse district in South Austin...The complex has become a hot spot for up-and-coming Austin businesses...Juiceland has warehouse space in the complex, along with Still Austin Distillery, St. Elmo Brewing Co., The Austin Winery and a coffee shop called The Spokesman."

(more info in the Journal article- subscription required but there may be a few free articles per month. Anyone interested in business in Austin should subscribe..)

I smell Texas Automobile Dealership Association capitulation. New state legislative session has begun. I’ll try to keep a lookout for upcoming news.

 

[amolina]

The German government is working hard on that health warning label....albeit in a stupid way by limiting the losses that can be written off against gains (for tax) in options trading (and other derivatives) to €20K / annum . Absolute madness!

Imagine a year where you have 100.000 in trading losses vs. 150.000 in trading wins. So you made 50.000 for the year. In the new system, however, you can only apply 20.000 of the 150.000 wins to the 100.000 losses, and thus have to pay taxes on 150.000 - 20.000 = 130.000

Complete nightmare.

It is an absolute show. Their logic of trying to protect the retailer money from falling into Offshore Market makers is soooo flawed. We can no longer hedge our positions anymore. They haven't thought this through properly.
Maybe we german residents should migrate to Belgium or a phony Krugennd island with tax incentives

 

[traxila]

Tesla is liquidating Model S and Model X inventory by the end of the month as refresh nears - Electrek

'Electrek has learned from sources familiar with the matter that Tesla has instructed employees to sell all Model S and Model X inventory in stores across all markets.

Tesla aims to have absolutely no Model S or Model X in inventory by the end of the month.'

I find this exciting!

How many shares for a Plaid?

 

[Mengy]

I find this exciting!

How many shares for a Plaid?

At current valuations, more shares than I'm willing to give up.

 

[winfield100]

The German government is working hard on that health warning label....albeit in a stupid way by limiting the losses that can be written off against gains (for tax) in options trading (and other derivatives) to €20K / annum . Absolute madness!

Imagine a year where you have 100.000 in trading losses vs. 150.000 in trading wins. So you made 50.000 for the year. In the new system, however, you can only apply 20.000 of the 150.000 wins to the 100.000 losses, and thus have to pay taxes on 150.000 - 20.000 = 130.000

Complete nightmare.

@FS_FRA
How is it a nightmare if it forces you to just a bit more _prudence_ with your gambling losses and become more of an investor?

stopping the rest of we _investors_ from having to literally subsidize a gambling habit instead of disciplined systems.

If you want to learn to _play_ options, then accept _paying_ for the education 100%, not 20%

You have a hard number , €20K / annum. That should help you focus refine your strategies with outside imposed discipline, and perhaps as an added benefit, reduce by an infinitesmal scintilla volatility in TSLA share price

 

[Drezil]

@FS_FRA
You have a hard number , €20K / annum. That should help you focus refine your strategies with outside imposed discipline, and perhaps as an added benefit, reduce by an infinitesmal scintilla volatility in TSLA share price

For me this is gone after trading 1 Spread.
The current ruling basically prohibits the use of spreads in any form. No hedging, no downside-protection, no nothing.

But hey! the "rest" you can take against your gains in the future. At a rate of 20k/annum. In Total.

 

[colettimj]

I think that "Street High" technically refers only to Wallstreet Analysts. ARK Invest, although they have their own analytics dept, is more likely classified as an "Institutional Investor" with their portfolio of ETF offerings.

ARK Invest is in the same category as Ron Baron's fund, who have an equally high TSLA PT, although possibly an even longer investment horizon. Ron had this to say on June 9, 2020, when the SP closed at $188.13 (split-adjusted):

Tesla investor Ron Baron expects exponential growth for Elon Musk's car company and SpaceX

Hmm that's 10x from $188 so just 2.2x to go on Leg 1 to $1,900/share ($9,500 pre-split)

So, Q4 2022 anyone? Models 3/Y on 3 continents? Sounds golden to me.

Cheers!

Just a reminder that ARK's price target from Jan 31, 2020 (Tesla’s Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years) had an Expected Value of $1,400 in 2024 ($7K pre-split). While we all wait for ARK to update their price target, it is worth noting that Cathie was featured on a Market Rebellion roundtable on Oct 12, 2020 where Tesla was one of the topics discussed. Starting at 8:41 in the video she mentions that, with a five-year timeframe, she expects a compound annual rate of return for TSLA to be around 45%. TSLA closed that day at $442.30 which (if my math is correct) then means she's thinking around $2,800 in 2025.

 

[Nocturnal]

Just a reminder that ARK's price target from Jan 31, 2020 (Tesla’s Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years) had an Expected Value of $1,400 in 2024 ($7K pre-split). While we all wait for ARK to update their price target, it is worth noting that Cathie was featured on a Market Rebellion roundtable on Oct 12, 2020 where Tesla was one of the topics discussed. Starting at 8:41 in the video she mentions that, with a five-year timeframe, she expects a compound annual rate of return for TSLA to be around 45%. TSLA closed that day at $442.30 which (if my math is correct) then means she's thinking around $2,800 in 2025.

I'm dying to hear their new targets. I think more people will pay attention this time.

 

[Mengy]

Just a reminder that ARK's price target from Jan 31, 2020 (Tesla’s Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years) had an Expected Value of $1,400 in 2024 ($7K pre-split). While we all wait for ARK to update their price target, it is worth noting that Cathie was featured on a Market Rebellion roundtable on Oct 12, 2020 where Tesla was one of the topics discussed. Starting at 8:41 in the video she mentions that, with a five-year timeframe, she expects a compound annual rate of return for TSLA to be around 45%. TSLA closed that day at $442.30 which (if my math is correct) then means she's thinking around $2,800 in 2025.

Cathie's original bull case was $15,000 in five years, which would be right around your $2800 prediction there. Given Tesla's execution this past year I feel you might be right, Cathie could make her previous bull case the new base case somewhere around $3000 by 2025. If so, then I wonder what the new bull case alongside that would be?

 

[bkp_duke]

New video from Sandy Munro. They have a 2021 Model 3 that they may or may not tear down (not really clear, Sandy suggested just taking a few bits off). For a TSLA investor, it's a bit of an emotional rollercoaster:

OOF. Those are some of the worst panel gaps and mis-alignments of panels I have seen in the past few years from Tesla.

Sandy is right, if Tesla wants to take more market share, this is a stupid easy thing to fix, and frankly is just unacceptable.

 

[phantasms]

OOF. Those are some of the worst panel gaps and mis-alignments of panels I have seen in the past few years from Tesla.

Sandy is right, if Tesla wants to take more market share, this is a stupid easy thing to fix, and frankly is just unacceptable.

I'm guessing once these things are rolling out of Austin it'll be fixed. It seems the China ones are near perfect. It's probably just the issue of not wanting to shut down or slow down the line to fix it. I'm sure all future lines will be mint.

 

[bkp_duke]

I'm guessing once these things are rolling out of Austin it'll be fixed. It seems the China ones are near perfect. It's probably just the issue of not wanting to shut down or slow down the line to fix it. I'm sure all future lines will be mint.

My understanding. But that beckons the question that after building cars in Fremont for 8+ years, WTF is going on there that they cannot fix properly in terms of fit an finish?

 

[UltradoomY]

Just checked after a few comments - here in Tampa and the maximum 200 mile search radius - zero new model S or X available.......

 

[ZsoZso]

Jeff Dahn battery research prof (who collaborates with Tesla) is about to start presentation:
StorageX International Symposium Registration | Energy

(free to register and watch)

 

[Nocturnal]

Cathie's original bull case was $15,000 in five years, which would be right around your $2800 prediction there. Given Tesla's execution this past year I feel you might be right, Cathie could make her previous bull case the new base case somewhere around $3000 by 2025. If so, then I wonder what the new bull case alongside that would be?

Their top case was 22k pre split.

OOF. Those are some of the worst panel gaps and mis-alignments of panels I have seen in the past few years from Tesla.

Sandy is right, if Tesla wants to take more market share, this is a stupid easy thing to fix, and frankly is just unacceptable.

They should fix it because that suggests there will be issues down the road but I'd bet a lot of shares that 90% of car buyers don't even know what a panel gap is.