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This raises several questions:
  1. Will there be 18650 / 2170 versions of these structural packs?
  2. Will tabless cells be manufactured in 18650/2170 form factors?
  3. Who will be manufacturing these packs?
  4. How close to mass production is the dry electrode coating process?
  5. Does Tesla expect to use 4680 form factor for its entire fleet eventually? If so, what is the timeline?
seeing reports on Twitter and elsewhere that along with the Model S and X, the Skateboard chassis that occupy many showrooms are also disappearing -- another piece of circumstantial evidence that implies the S/X refresh includes the structural battery pack design.
This brings up a question: Using 4680s requires another 10mm of height. It’s not a hugely significant amount, but with other possible changes (structural pack) wouldn’t another full crash test regiment be required? Would someone be able to find test requests/results from the applicable governmental organization?
 
Clearly it’s a people problem on the line. Somebodies don’t care to do their job properly. That happens everywhere and it’s not like California is a hotbed of traditional/classic values such as an upbringing of hard manual labor, if you’re going to do something do it right the first time and other such olden days belt whoopings.

Sandy might just as easily gotten another car that was assembled by people who really care. There are plenty of customers getting cars without these issues.
Funnily enough he said that the driver's side was pretty much perfect. So whoever works on that side of the line needs a raise, and the other side...

Unless you're a mormon when would you ever be trying to get seven adults into a car?

When the grandparents are visiting.
That's the only time I ever used the 3rd row in my Highlander. Those seats were barely larger than the Y from what I can tell. It's a choice between being squeeze a little or taking two cars.
 
This brings up a question: Using 4680s requires another 10mm of height. It’s not a hugely significant amount, but with other possible changes (structural pack) wouldn’t another full crash test regiment be required? Would someone be able to find test requests/results from the applicable governmental organization?

While Tesla will likely have the crash tests redone, because the car should fare better with a structural pack, they could integrate the structural pack without any change in height parameters. Remember, while the cells are 10mm higher, there are other things being removed from the non-structural pack that easily gives them the 10mm back to work with.
 
Assuming the 4680-cell structural pack architecture is confirmed for the Model S (and X), it just occurred to me that these product lines will have completely skipped the 2170 cells, and will not have benefitted from all the advantages that accompanied the 18650 -> 2170 transition.

And so, while still on the 18650s, the Model S continued to be at the top in terms of EV performance; that is very telling for the amount of energy efficiency and power output Tesla's engineers were able to squeeze out of that drivetrain.

But it also means that transitioning to the 4680s will bring HUGE benefits in terms of range and power performance for an equivalent battery pack (100 kWh).

We're in for some very nice surprises if the 4680-cell pack is confirmed, I think!
Isn't range/100kwh on the efficiency of the car and not the battery? When it comes to energy density, it's about putting more kwh per similar weight. So a 100kwh wouldn't improve range for a model S that much as any range improvements would come from weight savings only which is something but not dramatic. The true range increase is from a 150kwh pack that is the same weight as the old 100kwh pack..this will yield the most range improvement.
 
I'm not buying it. [batteries, I'm buying the dip!]

The articles confirming Elon saying 4680 batteries on Plaid. Link to a tweet of him saying "yeah" to Whole mars blog asking ~"will plaid use structural 4680 pack". That tweet is now deleted and the convo is shot.

Also someone in the know [maybe bill wright] said there are 18,560 different ways to get Plaid on an S.

Also, they're short on batteries and the 18650 works great, why quit them.

My guess is they use a much improved 18650 on the S and X. Same size pack physically but higher kwh. The cars are all MUCH improved faster/longer range, with Plaid being the top of the line. Then, they upgrade the power on the current Y and 3. We all know that they're capable of more. For example we finally get the ludicrous Model 3 which was promised in the past. Another example is when you purchase the acceleration boost it increases the front power but decreases the rear. There's more in the tank there for sure. No one can currently compete with the current 3 and Y, wait until they're uncorked. They've been held down because you can't have a Model 3 faster than a Model S. Bad for biz. By the time every human wants a 3 and Y, Austin will be up and running producing farrrrr more cars than one can believe.

Those two S and X lines went to one making room for another. They start the Roadster in Freemont in the next couple of months and that uses structural 4680 cells.

Then I'm left with the extremely difficult first world problem of Ludicrous 3, Plaid S, or the full Monty.


...all the restaurants will be Taco Bell. ;)
 
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tesla has been churning out 4680 batteries for some time now. Which means they have been stockpiling. These batteries have to go somewhere. Best to start with a relatively small volume product. That avoids to have a single GF from producing two structural variants of a high volume product. So, my bet would be that the S and X will have structural 4680 packs. Other options for the batteries would be the roadster and the semi, but I don’t think we are close to those.

Or, there's the option that Elon actually brought up, namely sending the 4680s to Berlin for initial Model Y production there until local battery production is scaled.

Unless you're a mormon when would you ever be trying to get seven adults into a car?

Right now we'd put the two younger kids in the back, two older in the middle. But the two older are already taller than their mom and they all keep growing... how many years are we supposed to get out of this?

Besides, target price for purchasing an X was $700, so now we're just waiting to see what the refresh brings. :)
 
I'm not buying it. [batteries, I'm buying the dip!]

The articles confirming Elon saying 4680 batteries on Plaid. Link to a tweet of him saying "yeah" to Whole mars blog asking ~"will plaid use structural 4680 pack". That tweet is now deleted and the convo is shot.

Also someone in the know [maybe bill wright] said there are 18,560 different ways to get Plaid on an S.

Also, they're short on batteries and the 18650 works great, why quit them.

My guess is they use a much improved 18650 on the S and X. Same size pack physically but higher kwh. The cars are all MUCH improved faster/longer range, with Plaid being the top of the line. Then, they upgrade the power on the current Y and 3. We all know that they're capable of more. For example we finally get the ludicrous Model 3 which was promised in the past. Another example is when you purchase the acceleration boost it increases the front power but decreases the rear. There's more in the tank there for sure. No one can currently compete with the current 3 and Y, wait until they're uncorked. They've been held down because you can't have a Model 3 faster than a Model S. Bad for biz. By the time every human wants a 3 an Y Austin will be up and running predicting farrrrr more cars than one can believe.

Those two S and X lines went to one making room for another. They start the Roadster in Freemont in the next couple of months and that uses structural 4680 cells.

Then I'm left with the extremely difficult first world problem of Ludicrous 3, Plaid S, or the full Monty.


...all the restaurants will be Taco Bell. ;)

18650s will never not overheat after about 4 minutes of track use. That'll only get you halfway around the Nürburgring. That may be fine for standard Model S / X vehicles, but it's not acceptable for Plaid. It's got to use the tabless design to dissipate enough heat to work as a track car and compete with the Taycan.
 
18650s will never not overheat after about 4 minutes of track use. That'll only get you halfway around the Nürburgring. that's not acceptable. Plaid has to use the tabless design to work as a track car and compete with the Taycan.

I don't disagree and that exact point is my biggest question mark. I won't be using my Plaid S reservation if it uses 18650 as I plan on tracking my next Tesla. Never the less I stand by my guess.
 
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