Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

I am repeating the claims of the drone pilots, they simply call it GA.
I doubt that they have the full picture.

The area they call GA on the western side stretches a long way with many loading docks.

If we get loading docks on the east side that might be Model Y GA. My original assumption matches yours, the maps the drome pilots put up have GA on the western side.

Another consideration is with castings and a structural pack, the process flow might be different. The structural pack being married to the castings before the regular body shop process.

If that was the case I imagine at Austin, that marriage would happen south of the castings area, but before the body shop zipper.

I am not sure if that impacts on Model Y GA being on the east side.

My thoughts:
South east is stamping (big pit), north east corner is casting. Between the two is body assembly (welding by stamping, casting bolt on by casting). Then shift (sideways or new floor) to paint. Line flow then goes south through GA (not the state, that's east). Whole thing could fit in the east half of the building.

No loading docks on east side due to the machinery and processes being all raw metal fed in from north and south ends. West side is recieving/ warehouse(on some level).
Centerline is an acces road that could feed both sides:

There’ll be lots of green space around factory, but building itself is continuous. The “open” areas inside are covered. They’re internal semi truck roads inside a giant monolithic building.

https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1307780443157258240


Subassembilies likely on the upper floors and feed to the line on the ground floor.

 

[Driver Dave]

When people ask me “how did everyone miss Tesla?” I reply because everyone has been given absolutely wrong info on the reality of Tesla and the EV business.

Guys like Neil Boucette at the Times and his recent article today are a great example.

The article is:

* subtlety and overtly anti Tesla

* vastly overstating Ford and other’s EV business and the very real challenges they have trying to break into the market

* not giving their readers a clear view of the reality of Tesla’s cars, business and success that is going to be very hard to beat

* ignoring all the benefits of buying and owning a Tesla that are far greater than any other gas car maker putting out “an EV car”

* presented as reporting.

No wonder so many investors missed Tesla and continue to do.

see here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/15/business/ford-mustang-ev-tesla.html

Tesla Might Finally Have Some Competition. From Ford.
Traditional automakers have struggled to sell electric cars. That could change as Ford, Volkswagen and others introduce new models.

...


Example of disinformation, a world where the Model Y doesn’t exist:

“
The company is betting that the car will succeed where others have failed in part because, while it is called a Mustang, it is a roomy and high-riding S.U.V., which many American car buyers prefer over sedans. Most of Tesla’s sales come from its Model 3 compact sedan. Other automakers, including Volkswagen, Nissan, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo and Hyundai, are also planning to introduce electric S.U.V.s in the coming months.

“

 

[ZeApelido]

Weekend stuff. I was comparing returns from march bottom and found this surprising. This is for people who say Tesla has grown too fast in one year!!
View attachment 627977

I hope TUP doesn't stand for Tulip Bubble.

 

[Rarity]

I expect Phase 2 at Austin to be around 1 year behind Phase 1, maybe a bit less.
Phase 2 can be an improved version of Phase 1, most car making needs stamping, casting, paint and GA.

A recent trend is contractor trailers moving from the East closer to the site, a good option is phase 2 in the area where the trailers have been moved from. Trailers don't have to move again for Phase 2 and are between both sites, other gear can be left on site for Phase 2 when that makes sense.

Phase 2 might include more site rain water management, especially if earthworks are done in times of more seasonal rainfall.
Rain on the site has slowed down Phase 1, for Phase 2 they have time to consider that risk and develop a strategy.

If they want three gigafactories abreast, they will probably need to build Phase 2 on the area where the trailers are now. When they moved the electrical switchyard, that immediately came to mind as the area where Phase 2 might happen.

They don't seem to mind moving the trailers frequently to be close to the action. As is apparent in Shanghai, they also don't mind pouring concrete and then ripping it up soon after.

Another possibility is a Phase 2 that is larger than Phase 1. I don't know the sweet spot on the size-complexity curves.

 

[Krugerrand]

In case people don’t know, the 100 M is not a payment. It is a guarantee. A bank guarantee is fine as well.
In Europe people typically like partners to keep there word. Corporations acting like there is no need for them to do that, especially if they are big. Such behavior can easily lead to resentment among the general public, which is not good for the environment (there is a mission), sales and shareholders.

Meh. Comes across more like bs to me. Give us 100m to hold in case we decide not to let you build and everything can be put back, but go ahead and build while we twiddle our thumbs thinking about it.

Here’s a thought, just bloody well decide yes or no in a not-a-half century time frame. Guess what — no need for 100m then.

 

[heltok]

Is it just me or does it look like Tesla are planning to do major increase of the footprint in Shanghai?

Is that enough space for a battery plant? Or semi? Or Model 2?

 

[joh01652]

When people ask me “how did everyone miss Tesla?” I reply because everyone has been given absolutely wrong info on the reality of Tesla and the EV business.

Guys like Neil Boucette at the Times and his recent article today are a great example.

The article is:

* subtlety and overtly anti Tesla

* vastly overstating Ford and other’s EV business and the very real challenges they have trying to break into the market

* not giving their readers a clear view of the reality of Tesla’s cars, business and success that is going to be very hard to beat

* ignoring all the benefits of buying and owning a Tesla that are far greater than any other gas car maker putting out “an EV car”

* presented as reporting.

No wonder so many investors missed Tesla and continue to do.

see here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/15/business/ford-mustang-ev-tesla.html

Tesla Might Finally Have Some Competition. From Ford.
Traditional automakers have struggled to sell electric cars. That could change as Ford, Volkswagen and others introduce new models.

...


Example of disinformation, a world where the Model Y doesn’t exist:

“
The company is betting that the car will succeed where others have failed in part because, while it is called a Mustang, it is a roomy and high-riding S.U.V., which many American car buyers prefer over sedans. Most of Tesla’s sales come from its Model 3 compact sedan. Other automakers, including Volkswagen, Nissan, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo and Hyundai, are also planning to introduce electric S.U.V.s in the coming months.

“

There's no other way to say it: NYT is anti-Tesla, and has been since I've been paying attention to the EV space these past couple of years. The NYT used to be one of my go-to news sources, but I've stopped since their coverage of EVs either ignores Tesla's impact or writes overt hit pieces about them.

Yeah, I get it, NYT has been receiving Big Auto ad money for decades so they're somewhat beholden, but for a publication that is fairly climate-aware, I can't give them a pass on this. Tesla is doing far more to actually try to solve climate change than any other entity that I can think of, so I give the NYT an 'F' and don't visit their site any more. There are too many other sites that are trying to cover Tesla, EVs and climate change more thoroughly.

 

[FS_FRA]

Meh. Comes across more like bs to me. Give us 100m to hold in case we decide not to let you build and everything can be put back, but go ahead and build while we twiddle our thumbs thinking about it.

Here’s a thought, just bloody well decide yes or no in a not-a-half century time frame. Guess what — no need for 100m then.

With all due respect, it seems you have no idea what you're talking about in this instance (bring on the disagrees....) or you're just being polemic....

Tesla is building in Germany, so they need to follow German (and EU) rules. They are being allowed to leap-frog normal regulatory requirements in good faith (e.g. continuing construction before environmental impact assessments have been completed, or before other formalities have been completed which take longer than Tesla's timeline, etc. ). Pretty arrogant to suggest the officials are twiddling their thumbs.

Consider someone asking to build on your mountain - you'd expect them to follow your rules, no? And you'd manage your expectations as you see fit, I'm sure.

Thank f. it's the weekend...

 

[kanweg]

Meh. Comes across more like bs to me. Give us 100m to hold in case we decide not to let you build and everything can be put back, but go ahead and build while we twiddle our thumbs thinking about it.

Here’s a thought, just bloody well decide yes or no in a not-a-half century time frame. Guess what — no need for 100m then.

From the fact that one of the options was not to money to the German government but to provide a bank guarantee, indicates that the we want to hold the money is not a relevant factor.

Most European democracies are of a type where lots of people have to be satisfied or the people in power are sent packing. Which they don’t want to so they apply the (many) laws set into place to satisfy the demands of the voters, for example those concerning the environment. one of the things that voters (tax payers) don’t like is to be the bag holder if something goes wrong. (Tax payers typically end up with the tab, for example in case of nuclear plants where at the end there is a radioactive plant and waste, but not much eagerness to clean it all up).

Satisfying the majority of voters is in contrast to dictatorships where a small group benefits from the people in power. The US is in between these two (it is not necessarily the person who gets the popular vote that becomes president), which has not been hard to see during the last four years where special interests got a lot that was not in the general interest of the population. More on this in the excellent book The Dictator’s handbook by de mesquita et al, which I happen to be re-reading right now. Highly recommended reading for anyone desiring to have a better understanding how the world works.

if Tesla wants to get things done quickly, don’t stall and don’t sow distrust by not sticking to your end of the deal. In any case, I’m happy it is arranged now. Build, build, build!

 

[traxila]

There's no other way to say it: NYT is anti-Tesla, and has been since I've been paying attention to the EV space these past couple of years. The NYT used to be one of my go-to news sources, but I've stopped since their coverage of EVs either ignores Tesla's impact or writes overt hit pieces about them.

Yeah, I get it, NYT has been receiving Big Auto ad money for decades so they're somewhat beholden, but for a publication that is fairly climate-aware, I can't give them a pass on this. Tesla is doing far more to actually try to solve climate change than any other entity that I can think of, so I give the NYT an 'F' and don't visit their site any more. There are too many other sites that are trying to cover Tesla, EVs and climate change more thoroughly.

Have been posting for years about the yellow rag that the NYT is. I consider it one of the top tier levels of journalism left in the US, but it talks its book like the rest of them. It is the most sanctimonious of all of the so-called news sources, a trait which I personally despise. Just tells you how sad the whole state of affairs is.

The NYT is actively and virulently anti Tesla. I prefer it much more from the WSJ and other sources that don’t pretend to be a friend and supporter of Tesla’s mission.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/15/business/ford-mustang-ev-tesla.html

Tesla Might Finally Have Some Competition. From Ford.
Traditional automakers have struggled to sell electric cars. That could change as Ford, Volkswagen and others introduce new models.
...

Example of disinformation, a world where the Model Y doesn’t exist:

“
The company is betting that the car will succeed where others have failed in part because, while it is called a Mustang, it is a roomy and high-riding S.U.V., which many American car buyers prefer over sedans. Most of Tesla’s sales come from its Model 3 compact sedan. Other automakers, including Volkswagen, Nissan, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo and Hyundai, are also planning to introduce electric S.U.V.s in the coming months.

“

The biggest lie and FUD of all for me, although some here disagree, is that the introduction of competent BEVs is somehow an issue for Tesla at this point. It is most assuredly not. Or any other BEV manufacturer for that matter.

What I have yet to see answered from any of the articles is what happens when the Ford buyers agree that the BEVs that Ford is offering are superior to their ICE cars. The only result I see there is that the company enters the express lane to bankruptcy. The OEMs know this and are writhing around on the floor incoherently in response.

Make no mistake. The overwhelming majority of the ICE OEMs are still praying to slow down the transition as much as possible. Consumers are not playing along and it is infuriating them.

 

[Coolio2000]

With all due respect, it seems you have no idea what you're talking about in this instance (bring on the disagrees....) or you're just being polemic....

Tesla is building in Germany, so they need to follow German (and EU) rules. They are being allowed to leap-frog normal regulatory requirements in good faith (e.g. continuing construction before environmental impact assessments have been completed, or before other formalities have been completed which take longer than Tesla's timeline, etc. ). Pretty arrogant to suggest the officials are twiddling their thumbs.

Consider someone asking to build on your mountain - you'd expect them to follow your rules, no? And you'd manage your expectations as you see fit, I'm sure.

Thank f. it's the weekend...

It would be interesting to see a comparison between Giga Berlin vs Texas and all of the regulatory rules and red tape that Tesla has had to go through to build a factory. Didn't Elon just say that their needs to be a department in Germany that does nothing but eliminate out-dated regulations? I'm thinking Texas is much more business friendly.

 

[MP3Mike]

The western side is, IMO, probably for cybertruck. The current construction has shown no indication for stamping or paint - it looks more like just a big shed with no areas that look particularly unique so far. It's comparably narrow with loading docs all the way down the side - which would make sense for cybertruck - steel comes in one end and gets shaped - then parts from the loading docs get added as it moves down the line.

I can't see the western side being used for M3 or Semi as we should see a paint shop being installed - if it's not cybertruck it could be for powerelectronics, cells or seats+warehousing - but if that was the case it would be a deviation from Shanghai and Berlin where there are separate smaller buildings for these sorts of items.

Elon has said that it is one large building, not two. Also, notice no loading docks on the right side, so it can't be the full area for the Model Y. The North end of the left side is the General Assembly area for the Model Y. (I think recent videos have even showed all the areas.)

And there are many other area that need to be in their: drive unit, seats, battery pack, etc. Giga Berlin seems to have gone with lots of separate buildings instead on one huge one.

 

[bkp_duke]

Slow 3-day weekend Tesla news cycle. . . we need some leak about S/X refresh, 4680 timeline accelerating, Semi "coming soon" . . . or something.

 

[Opus BC fan]

There's no other way to say it: NYT is anti-Tesla, and has been since I've been paying attention to the EV space these past couple of years. The NYT used to be one of my go-to news sources, but I've stopped since their coverage of EVs either ignores Tesla's impact or writes overt hit pieces about them.

Yeah, I get it, NYT has been receiving Big Auto ad money for decades so they're somewhat beholden, but for a publication that is fairly climate-aware, I can't give them a pass on this. Tesla is doing far more to actually try to solve climate change than any other entity that I can think of, so I give the NYT an 'F' and don't visit their site any more. There are too many other sites that are trying to cover Tesla, EVs and climate change more thoroughly.

The NYT lost me with Broder around 2013.

 

[Krugerrand]

With all due respect, it seems you have no idea what you're talking about in this instance (bring on the disagrees....) or you're just being polemic....

Tesla is building in Germany, so they need to follow German (and EU) rules. They are being allowed to leap-frog normal regulatory requirements in good faith (e.g. continuing construction before environmental impact assessments have been completed, or before other formalities have been completed which take longer than Tesla's timeline, etc. ). Pretty arrogant to suggest the officials are twiddling their thumbs.

Consider someone asking to build on your mountain - you'd expect them to follow your rules, no? And you'd manage your expectations as you see fit, I'm sure.

Thank f. it's the weekend...

Oh, the excuses for more bureaucracy than TSLAQ supporters. It’s Tesla, not Enron. Ask Elon to plant trees and he says he’ll plant 3x what he took down. That’s literally a 30 second conversation. X is how much water you can have. That’s another minute discussion.

He’s for you, for Germany, for endangered species, for us all. Tell him what needs to be done now and then get out of his way already. The whole idea of needing months to study the situation and talk about it at length is ridiculous. Yes it is. There are factories all over the world that have been studied for decades and in Germany of all places. If you don’t know by now what you do and do not want to happen at said factory, you’ve not been paying attention. And I’m quite sure Elon feels the same given his past comments about what government should be about. I agree with him.

I’m German, married to a German. There’s truth in German stereotypes and those honest enough will readily admit to them. Giga Austin is going to be advancing the mission before Berlin. Shame on the bureaucrats and those who support them.

 

[Krugerrand]

From the fact that one of the options was not to money to the German government but to provide a bank guarantee, indicates that the we want to hold the money is not a relevant factor.

Most European democracies are of a type where lots of people have to be satisfied or the people in power are sent packing. Which they don’t want to so they apply the (many) laws set into place to satisfy the demands of the voters, for example those concerning the environment. one of the things that voters (tax payers) don’t like is to be the bag holder if something goes wrong. (Tax payers typically end up with the tab, for example in case of nuclear plants where at the end there is a radioactive plant and waste, but not much eagerness to clean it all up).

Satisfying the majority of voters is in contrast to dictatorships where a small group benefits from the people in power. The US is in between these two (it is not necessarily the person who gets the popular vote that becomes president), which has not been hard to see during the last four years where special interests got a lot that was not in the general interest of the population. More on this in the excellent book The Dictator’s handbook by de mesquita et al, which I happen to be re-reading right now. Highly recommended reading for anyone desiring to have a better understanding how the world works.

if Tesla wants to get things done quickly, don’t stall and don’t sow distrust by not sticking to your end of the deal. In any case, I’m happy it is arranged now. Build, build, build!

Meh. More excuses for foot dragging.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Hope the new hired robotic inspection engineer and the computer automated camera-based inspections system at Fremont will make Sandy satisfied with fit and finish. He wished to be impressed but the passenger side 1 mm and 5 mm gap left him with something to be critical about.

 

[Krugerrand]

Hope the new hired robotic inspection engineer and the computer automated camera-based inspections system at Fremont will make Sandy satisfied with fit and finish. He wished to be impressed but the passenger side 1 mm and 5 mm gap left him with something to be critical about.

It’s his job to be critical. So no shock he finds things to be critical about. Meh.

If there was a way to track down the worker who put that door on, I’m quite sure they’d be out of a job last week. Hopefully, they’ve since quit or been fired or reprimanded or become more skilled (maybe it was their first day ), orhave decided to do the job properly for which they are being paid.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Here is the Wedbush note. Dan Ives was previously forecasting only 2 million vehicle deliveries in 2030. That has now been increased to 5.5 million.


View attachment 627702

Could these generally bullish analysts sandbag estimates purposely to keep their job relevant? If they are continuously increasing/ modifying their forecasts then they are essentially providing valuable regularly scheduled contents. In turn then security for their job. Imagine had you had ARKs forecast and price target for the last two years. What new info are you providing their clients paying $$$$ clients? I mean there bears with almost higher forecasts in 2030.

 

[winfield100]

Have been posting for years about the yellow rag that the NYT is. I consider it one of the top tier levels of journalism left in the US, but it talks its book like the rest of them. It is the most sanctimonious of all of the so-called news sources, a trait which I personally despise. Just tells you how sad the whole state of affairs is.

The NYT is actively and virulently anti Tesla. I prefer it much more from the WSJ and other sources that don’t pretend to be a friend and supporter of Tesla’s mission.




The biggest lie and FUD of all for me, although some here disagree, is that the introduction of competent BEVs is somehow an issue for Tesla at this point. It is most assuredly not. Or any other BEV manufacturer for that matter.

What I have yet to see answered from any of the articles is what happens when the Ford buyers agree that the BEVs that Ford is offering are superior to their ICE cars. The only result I see there is that the company enters the express lane to bankruptcy. The OEMs know this and are writhing around on the floor incoherently in response.

Make no mistake. The overwhelming majority of the ICE OEMs are still praying to slow down the transition as much as possible. Consumers are not playing along and it is infuriating them.

@traxila
well, back in very late 2012/early 2013 NYT editor drove a Tesla from around Washington DC to NYC
(not charging an EV) they wrote a piece about it that was refuted by 8 members and friends of local washington DC EV club by recreating the run starting at the Gaithersburg, maryland Tesla shop (one had car automatically tweet interior temp, a comfy 72 degrees F)
8 made the run to the Delaware supercharger then 4 did the run to NYC since superchargers were few and far between and S-60's could not, only S-85's 1 was a young couple just for fun.