Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[insaneoctane]

Never a bad time to remind ourselves how VW themselves regard Tesla. When setting up a strategic project to position VW for the new electric/digital auto world, the project they set up became know as "Mission T", explained here by VW CEO Herbert Diess:

"31 senior executives from Volkswagen, Audi and Porsche were involved in ‘Mission T’, as it was dubbed. The event revolved around how we can catch up with Tesla – a company focused exclusively on the future, without a traditional car business."

I think it's safe to say, they haven't yet caught up.

No, but acknowledging the problem IS the first step!

 

[ice]

@ice, We welcome your posts to TMC, although you may need to change that moniker of yours.

I went through the account preferences, but I can't seem to change my name even if I wanted to. Haha.

 

[insaneoctane]

I am convinced the legacy auto makers are hyping their planned EV launches far enough in the future to raise their current market cap without having to actually deliver on their promises.

Agreed. Feels like an "oh" moment for many legacy auto makers. They have somehow finally stared into their impending doom and realized if they don't hit the emergency EV eject button that they will quickly go down with the ship in a spectacular financial implosion. Hitting that button buys them a little more time so it will be interesting to see which ones do something necessary with that time.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Agreed. Feels like an "oh" moment for many legacy auto makers. They have somehow finally stared into their impending doom and realized if they don't hit the emergency EV eject button that they will quickly go down with the ship in a spectacular financial implosion. Hitting that button buys them a little more time so it will be interesting to see which ones do something necessary with that time.

You mean like this?

 

[JRP3]

SA bears came out of hibernation early and rabid. Must be hoping to cause some damage in the traditionally weak 1st quarter. Nothing worth reading IMO but in case anyone is interested:
Tesla: Trouble In Europe Is A Sign Of What's To Come (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4399915-tesla-shares-floating-on-thin-air
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4399931-why-teslas-shares-are-in-bubble-right-now
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4399791-tesla-elon-musks-growth-aims-cost-170-billion
https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...e-raises-questions-teslas-brandenburg-factory

 

[Rockster]

You mean like this?

View attachment 629221

Someone really needs to go back and tabulate all of the EV's that have been "announced" over the past decade, along with their planned release dates.

 

[AudubonB]

I went through the account preferences, but I can't seem to change my name even if I wanted to. Haha.

~~~MOD NOTE: Check your "Conversations", please. And: welcome!~~~

 

[UkNorthampton]

SA bears came out of hibernation early and rabid. Must be hoping to cause some damage in the traditionally weak 1st quarter. Nothing worth reading IMO but in case anyone is interested:
Tesla: Trouble In Europe Is A Sign Of What's To Come (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4399915-tesla-shares-floating-on-thin-air
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4399931-why-teslas-shares-are-in-bubble-right-now
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4399791-tesla-elon-musks-growth-aims-cost-170-billion
https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...e-raises-questions-teslas-brandenburg-factory

I read something on Seeking Alpha today - a paragraph of a FUD article & then straight to the comments, mix but more positive for Tesla & calling out the repeated cherry picking FUD than I remember. Not everyone is fooled all the time it seems.

When the FUD finally clears, that will add extra to $TSLA upwards trajectory, the FUD really has been a drag (IMO), useful to buy shares at a discount, but personally I'd rather share price goes up from now on as I'm all in.

 

[thx1139]

Someone really needs to go back and tabulate all of the EV's that have been "announced" over the past decade, along with their planned release dates.

And production amounts for the 1st and 2nd years. How many Tesla killers are vehicles that have planned production volume in 5 digits, low 5 digits.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I went through the account preferences, but I can't seem to change my name even if I wanted to. Haha.

You better figure it out cause we are highly suspicious of trolling ice posters. Especially those clever enough to register their account 7½ year before making the first post. You might be part of the final masterplan to convince us to sell.

 

[StealthP3D]

Agreed. Feels like an "oh, $h!t" moment for many legacy auto makers. They have somehow finally stared into their impending doom and realized if they don't hit the emergency EV eject button that they will quickly go down with the ship in a spectacular financial implosion. Hitting that button buys them a little more time so it will be interesting to see which ones do something necessary with that time.

Are you suggesting the legacy manufacturers should lobby for an auto bailout?

I'll be pissed if they are able to use public funds once again to invest to go green but it looks like that is where this is going.

 

[Tyler34]

I don’t see the checkbox. I’ve wondered about this, is there a discounted price? Seems like a lot less labor (lack of tear off) for a new build.

I put in a random address above. And then there is this right above the payment section:

 

[FireMedic]

I’m sure most of you already follow Jordan at the limiting factor… But if not it’s definitely worth your time to watch his videos. He has a deep understanding of battery chemistry and shares a lot of knowledge. Let’s show him some love.

https://youtu.be/LgU3uIgJvAU

 

[Duffer]

Are you suggesting the legacy manufacturers should lobby for an auto bailout?

I'll be pissed if they are able to use public funds once again to invest to go green but it looks like that is where this is going.

Legacy manufacturers have been announcing multiple upcoming EV models for how many years now? The only thing that will change is that the Gov will be throwing huge sums of money at them... to announce multiple upcoming EV models.

 

[Unpilot]

A "sadder looser" what?
(Keep it clean or Momma Mod will get a switch.)

While english is my native language.....my "post from my phone and don't worry about autocorrect" skills are not native to me.

At least that is my after hours OT reply.

 

[lafrisbee]

Call it what you want.
But Tesla had the ability to deliver MIC Model Y's in 2020, and held them till 2021.
Gamesmanship.
Why? Once again I feel...
Tesla wants to have the headline at the end of this year that they went from LESS than 500,000 vehicles to MORE than 1,000,000.
(This won't age well if the Earnings report has an adjusted number starting with a "5.")

And come on...all this FUD for no good reason? What a waste? TSLA traded only 20 million shares today.
My thought. The earnings report is going to be better than better.

 

[Singuy]

Call it what you want.
But Tesla had the ability to deliver MIC Model Y's in 2020, and held them till 2021.
Gamesmanship.
Why? Once again I feel...
Tesla wants to have the headline at the end of this year that they went from LESS than 500,000 vehicles to MORE than 1,000,000.
(This won't age well if the Earnings report has an adjusted number starting with a "5.")

And come on...all this FUD for no good reason? What a waste? TSLA traded only 20 million shares today.
My thought. The earnings report is going to be better than better.

Actually someone commented that they wouldn't recognize depreciation on the machines/capex in q4 earnings if they don't deliver in q4, or else the few thousand deliveries will trash earnings.

 

[st_lopes]

Actually someone commented that they wouldn't recognize depreciation on the machines/capex in q4 earnings if they don't deliver in q4, or else the few thousand deliveries will trash earnings.

Only an issue if they would report segmented earnings by vehicle or by location.

Realistically the depreciation in question would have been spread across the M3s coming out of Shanghai as well.

Likely more to do with smoothing delivery expectations in to Q1 knowing they would come close enough to annual target in 2020.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Wed, Jan 20, 2021: (Pre+Main Session Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Range Narrows"

Pre-Market Volume: 878,505
Data as of 01/20/2021 09:30:00
SP: $858.95 +14.4 +1.17%

Traded: (Pre+Main Session) $20,770,713,151.25 ($20.77B)
Volume: (Pre+Main Session) 24,446,574
VWAP: (Pre+Main Session) $849.64

Close: $850.45 / VWAP: 100.10%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $800 (N/C from Tue)

TSLA S&P 500 Weight: 1.998794% (Jan 19)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / FB $806.142B / 761.861B = 105.81%
Note: Yahoo Finance yet to update TSLA Mkt Cap re shares issued Dec 11th (SEC Filing)
​

CEO Comp. Status: (est'd Mkt Cap including Dec 11th shares)

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $728.28B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $461.41B

Mkt Cap req'd for 8th tranche ($450B) likely achieved yesterday Tue, Jan 19, 2021
Nota Bene: Operational milestones are req'd for this tranche.
​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 48.6% (47th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 56.9% (54th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt ratio was 0.79% of Short Volume (49th Percentile Rank Exempt)

Comment: "Mkt photocopies yesterday; mails it in."

QOTD: @Chunky Jr. "Holding onto TSLA is the investor version of the marshmallow test."

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!​

 

[generalenthu]

Are you suggesting the legacy manufacturers should lobby for an auto bailout?

I'll be pissed if they are able to use public funds once again to invest to go green but it looks like that is where this is going.

They should be raising capital about now and stopping dividends. GM is up some 35 odd percent year to date. My trading finger is itching to sell calls.