Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

Jason's a guy who got excited about Tesla and put everything into it. He got unlucky in that it didn't go up when it should have, but was pretty much flat for years. He got lucky in that he stuck it out and was there for the 2020 boom in TSLA. He especially got lucky that the great product was being made by what's turning out to be a great business. There's really nothing to be learned from that. There are no doubt dozens of Jasons just at Google who did more or less the same thing and made little or nothing or lost their shirts. If Dave keeps at his search for a few decades, he'll discover it's all survivorship bias. That is if he interviews the other guys, the ones who lost, and discovers they give the same answers.

Me, I've lost a ton of money on TSLA over the years. And I've made a ton of money. Right now, things are very positive. But a year ago, things were very negative. I don't think I'm any different now, nor did I change anything significant about how I was betting on TSLA, nor is Tesla particularly different. All that's really different is that Tesla's last decade of hard work is turning it into an overnight success.

I agree.
I have some merits, but they dwarf in comparison to the sheer luck to have been able to find this forum, learn from others's expertise, and stick to the advice of not selling.
At the moment, I'm the only one I know who bought and held. The guy who got me into Tesla (and had 10x shares than me, and now a Model S) has sold everything in the window of time between covid in Italy and covid in US. We had an "head start" about what was coming: I tried my luck with 7 shares, sold well but bought back only 5. He never did.

I've preached Tesla far and wide for years, I even wrote articles about that online and on paper. I am a nobody, and nobody listened to me. Friends and family didn't buy, and everyone just told me to sell when I was +30%.
When Tesla will be more established and "mainstream" in 5-10 years, I'll be viewed as a genius investor and people will ask for my advice, and unfortunately I will have none, because I only understand one company, and I can't offer no wisdom about anything else than a "buy and hold".
I'm just happy that my father bought a few shares on Friday, it's his first and only stock, but I basically forced him ;-)

 

[StealthP3D]

He seems to be projecting a runup to over 1000 and then a big correction. No clue if he has been right in the past or not. He follows Trendtrader so for many that would be a warning sign , although he (TT) probably owns his own archipelago by now!

That seems like a reasonable or plausible prediction to me. Having said that, I don't think anyone can predict these things with any consistency. For that reason it's pretty meaningless to me.

 

[StealthP3D]

LOL. I was talking about TSLA with my brother-in-law and I told him how scary the pandemic “crash” was and how close I was to margin calls. He pulled up the SP chart on his phone, and you could barely see that little dip.

Who woulda thunk?

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1353564655088619520?s=21

View attachment 630477

Let’s digest this one a little regarding hardware.

Tesla has two different hardware products relevant for this quote:
1. HW3/HW4(for inference)
2. Dojo training computer, possibly dojo inference computer(for generating labels)

Waymo/Alphabet has
1. Unknown hardware stack in cars, possibly using some form of Edge TPU(feel free to correct me if there is any known info on this, before they were using Intel: Waymo and Intel Collaborate on Self-Driving Car Technology | Intel Newsroom)
2. TPUv3(training and inference) which is well known and available to rent on the cloud

So my guess is that Elon is confident in that Dojo training computer is better* than TPUv3 and/or that HW3/HW4 is better* than whatever Waymo has in their vehicles.

*”Better” I assume means higher performance per watt, better safety, better integration etc.

As for having better software this is trickier to define, so I will not analyze this too much. It could mean pretty much anything.

 

[StealthP3D]

Edit: I should note that I always find Dave's podcasts to be a waste of my time. He's clearly talking to a different audience.

Yes, he is talking to a different audience. That's probably why Dave has a lot more unrealized TSLA gains right now than you will likely ever have. I haven't been watching his recent videos but I do know that he's someone who understands the proven way to build wealth.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think everyone got lucky when Tesla had logistics issues that was spun as demand issue by everyone. That was the best time to load up but of course many feared for Tesla's life due to cash burn and limited cash on hand.

And that is where skill was required - being able to seperate fact from fiction during the middle of 2019.

I don't buy the argument that since Elon said they were weeks from bankruptcy that it was an "iffy" situation. They would have re-capitalized (at a high interest rate) and continued on. In the bigger picture the additional debt would have been almost meaningless.

 

[MXWing]

Thumb up if you think TSLA will break 900 per share next week

Forget the thumbs up.

I'd like to know who is buying 900 strike calls and funding it with 880 short puts!

Anyone putting their money where their mouth is with bullish position adds?

Holding is acceptable position but that's letting the world come to you instead of you going at it.

My trading account which I would normally flatten in the face of uncertainty I'm staying invested. Going to sell some puts as well to scared people (maybe some of them are here) LOL

LETS GO TSLA.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Yes, he is talking to a different audience. That's probably why Dave has a lot more unrealized TSLA gains right now than you will likely ever have. I haven't been watching his recent videos but I do know that he's someone who understands the proven way to build wealth.

Maybe. I have no idea how much money he has in TSLA. Do you? Does he publish this, or encourage people to guess? From his demeanor in talking to Jason, I would guess that he doesn't hold as many shares as Jason does, but that's not a particularly strong impression. I'm not very good at reading people.

I'm fairly sure I have way more in realized losses than Dave does. And likely far more in realized gains. A lot of trading will do that. But put together they net out to about the same as my unrealized gains. At the moment.

But seriously, what is this proven way to build wealth you speak of? And why do you think he understands it?

 

[Bet TSLA]

And that is where skill was required - being able to seperate fact from fiction during the middle of 2019.

Can you really claim that "skill was required" when sleeping through 2019 would have served perfectly well?

 

[WarpedOne]

Can you really claim that "skill was required" when sleeping through 2019 would have served perfectly well?

Sleeping through the crysis is easy only for the masters, it is next to impossible for everyone else.

 

[Favguy]

Maybe. I have no idea how much money he has in TSLA. Do you? Does he publish this, or encourage people to guess? From his demeanor in talking to Jason, I would guess that he doesn't hold as many shares as Jason does, but that's not a particularly strong impression. I'm not very good at reading people.

I'm fairly sure I have way more in realized losses than Dave does. And likely far more in realized gains. A lot of trading will do that. But put together they net out to about the same as my unrealized gains. At the moment.

But seriously, what is this proven way to build wealth you speak of? And why do you think he understands it?

I'd assume he's referring to long term buy and hold, that's worked exceptionally well for me, but you know what they say about assuming!

 

[MABMAB]

Anyone who made spreadsheets before buying their first Tesla shares raise your hand.

I actually read some earning reports and spent a week reading and watching Tesla stuff on the net. Before I started investing my measly sums. Bet that is much more preparation than most here. Still feel like I just got lucky. Not sure who Bet TSLA expects to hear from who are much different.

It is not exactly a spreadsheet but it was my start of trying to figure this out. Stardate 8/2/2011

 

[WarpedOne]

I'd assume he's referring to long term buy and hold, that's worked exceptionally well for me, but you know what they say about assuming!

"Buy and hold" is a transformation of anther much more basic and important rule: identify the right company.
Why would one sell the right one, why would one hold the wrong one?
No point in either.

One sells when one needs cash or the right company changes into the wrong one.

 

[MABMAB]

It's not a private network. Name one manufacturer who has been stopped from using it. Has Tesla gone around rooting out manufacturers who have been trying to use it and stopping them?

It's my understanding that no manufacturer has elected to use it. Bollinger might have come close. I think those new Aptera BEVs might be able to use it.

(USA-specific comments begin here) Using taxpayers' money only for what IN PRACTICE are minority standards, is not going to happen. I think they will allocate monies to improve the Supercharger network.

Nobody complained in 2008 when the U.S. Government loaned Ford FIVE BILLION DOLLARS of our money for unspecified future product development. (I think Ford used it to keep afloat and develop the EcoBoost turbocharger for ICE) We have not got that money back yet - and in fact, Ford has successfully lobbied to delay the repayments, 12 years later! It could be argued that Ford blew the money on projects that weren't particularly advanced - especially when compared to what Tesla did with our $465million - which we got back, with $12million in interest. The government could do better than force Ford to pay back the $5,000,000,000 by installing Superchargers.

I had no idea Ford still owed money! Ford's $6B government loan debt haunts company as cash supply shrinks

F seems to be running more emotional ads on TV, first responder trucks and we are American kind of stuff. I get it. Without delving into their financials, I consider the ads a sign of the toilet bowl swirling. I think they will survive for a while, mainly as a big diesel company, perhaps post bankwuptcy.

 

[MC3OZ]

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainves...ung_and_tesla_to_work_together_on_a_5nm_nano/

The Korean article is from 5 hours ago, and there is no English news article about it yet.

Summary:

Samsung Foundry will work with Tesla to manufacture 5nm chips that will play a significant role in FSD, and it is currently in the R&D phase. The new chip will be made using the EUV process, which is different from the 14nm chips, which Samsung is currently supplying to Tesla, that were produced using the ArF process. The new chip belongs in the in-vehicle infotainment product family, and it will be utilized for processing various types of information and displaying them on the screen.

Single source so not verified at this stage, but if true not a big surprise.

 

[MABMAB]

https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018011.pdf

 

[mrdoubleb]

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainves...ung_and_tesla_to_work_together_on_a_5nm_nano/



Single source so not verified at this stage, but if true not a big surprise.

These Korean papers are usually very well informed in all things Samsung and LG. The only confusing part for me is the infotainment vs FSD chip distinction. But this could be due to the google translate though - maybe some of you K-Pop fans can help us out .

So AFAIK:

• Samsung is currently making the HW3 FSD chips at its Austin, TX fab, using 14nm tech.
• According to an earlier report HW4 (Tesla chip Gen 2) was supposed to be built by TSMC suing 7nm

This report now says Samsung and Tesla are working together on 5nm chips that will be used in infotainment but also mention self driving. So which is it?

• TSMC will make HW4 FSD, while Tesla will ditch Intel for the infotainment/instrument cluster and it will be replaced by Samsung 5nm chips, or
• Tesla has stopped working with TSMC, skips 7nm, and will use Samsung 5nm tech for both FSD and infotainment, or
• The Samsung cooperation is next-next gen stuff, call it HW5 for simplicity.

 

[MXWing]

I am thinking once all the rampaging in GME, BB and CCIV is done it’s going back over to TSLA.

TSLA safe a spot as any in this market to park.

 

[lascavarian]

https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018011.pdf

Smart investing and interesting almost as much for what she did not buy. Not buying social networking. Two companies that make objects vs just SW and a play for IP/content in DIsney. Optimistic.

 

[chrsk]

So a positive pre-market, currently at 861$. The big question is if it will be like last week. Pushed up in the morning, before dropping during regular hours on low volume...