Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MTL_HABS1909]

They weren't positive they'd continue having the high class of demand problem that they do, so filled the pipe with products to grow their TAM.

Fortunately they still have that problem, so the smart thing to do is make as many of their amazing cars at they can.

This is demonstrably false. Elon always stated Model 3 demand would be at least 500K and that Model Y would be more than S3X combined. They’ve known about battery constraints for a long time.

 

[MP3Mike]

Surprised no questions on chip production and supply since other manufacturers are having to slow vehicle production due to short supply and inability to ramp up at chip mfgrs now given current orders needing to be filled.

Maybe because they didn't need to ask because Zach specifically covered it. (And Jerome covered it as well toward the end when answering another question.)

 

[joh01652]

Dojo as a business. This company is mind blowing. Tesla is so much more than automotive and energy (and those are multi trillion dollar business).

I don't know what that means? Does it mean Tesla will contract Dojo out to other companies that don't have access to a neural net?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

It’s shame they forgot to answer the question about the Model 2 timeline (it felt like forgetting, not ignoring)

 

[Tyler34]

nm

Its over, its done. Go watch the Rob Maurer tesla daily video on youtube to re-see it.

 

[Todd Burch]

I think Tesla has now better distinguished the S/X as a higher echelon product compared to the 3/Y.

 

[MP3Mike]

This is demonstrably false. Elon always stated Model 3 demand would be at least 500K and that Model Y would be more than S3X combined. They’ve known about battery constraints for a long time.

But Panasonic had said that they could ramp battery production faster than they actually could. So Tesla was basing production schedules based on when suppliers said they could supply the cells. And the suppliers were wrong. So yeah, the Semi has been delayed.

But, Jerome said there will be more on the road soon, and they will be awesome, and that the first Semi will be delivered before the end of 2021. But volume production totally depends on getting lots more cells. (So really it depends on 4680 production at Giga Texas.)

 

[mejojo]

I don't have a link handy, but I did a calculation here a few weeks ago on how much those early Roadsters reservations really cost based on the appreciation of TSLA.

Those folks got hosed. Deliveries probably won't even start until 2023 soonest.

Did you calculate how much better off they are by NOT paying for the roadster between then and now and having it in TSLA for '20 ?

 

[Pezpunk]

So the "Plaid" they released today is really just 18650 battery with a tri-motor drivetrain, while the "Plaid+" is the vehicle they initially described as "Plaid" on Battery Day. (i am making an assumption here that Plaid+ will use 4680, but that's not confirmed)

Seems like a little bit of a bait-and-switch.

The timeline for "Plaid+" is in line with what was announced for "Plaid" on Battery Day --- end of 2021.

I realize I'm making a few sketchy assumptions, so don't get too worked up over any of this. Hopefully we'll know more after the impending "Refresh Conference Call" Elon mentioned tonight. Can't wait to hear more about the powertrain as well as details regarding brakes, tires, steering wheel, and the extensive interior refresh.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I love how FSD is all the same system with only physical constraints and maneuverability. They just tell the computer it's a Semi and it will adjust. Here I thought Semi would need to relearn, but now it sounds like just some changing parameters.

I'm sure nobody cares about how FSD is causing the stock do about nothing today, but this beast is imminent. I do watch those beta videos everyday and it's the change in improvement that's impressive. Then I heard 1,000 users and growing? That's beyond beta, it's running now. FSD is THE biggest margin boost there could possibly be.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

But Panasonic had said that they could ramp battery production faster than they actually could. So Tesla was basing production schedules based on when suppliers said they could supply the cells. And the suppliers were wrong. So yeah, the Semi has been delayed.

But, Jerome said there will be more on the road soon, and they will be awesome, and that the first Semi will be delivered before the end of 2021. But volume production totally depends on getting more cells. (So really it depends on 4680 production at Giga Texas.)

I get that. I’m an engineer in a large manufacturing company and we have supplier issues all the time. But at the end of the day, our customers/shareholders don’t care about the reason for delays. It’s our fault for not delivering on time.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Surprised no questions on chip production and supply since other manufacturers are having to slow vehicle production due to short supply and inability to ramp up at chip mfgrs now given current orders needing to be filled.

Zack mentioned this during his summary. At 26:37 mark on Tesla Investors Page link, Zack states: "...additionally we are working extremely hard to managing through the global semi-conductor shortage as well as port capacity, which may have a temporary impact."

 

[Todd Burch]

My biggest disappointment of the day was that there weren't more external styling differences with the S. I drive an S, love it--was one of the first in the world to have one, and think it's timeless and beautiful. But having said that I'd like to see a few more styling cue changes to keep things fresh.

 

[SpaceCash]

I guarantee you can’t afford to buy my shares....Sucks putting down that kind of money

Pick one, sir.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Pick one, sir.

Do you know anyone who has made money who likes to park it for years rather than get a 10 or 20x return? Move along....sir.

 

[Tyler34]

So the "Plaid" they released today is really just 18650 battery with a tri-motor drivetrain, while the "Plaid+" is the vehicle they initially described as "Plaid" on Battery Day. (i am making an assumption here that Plaid+ will use 4680, but that's not confirmed)

Seems like a little bit of a bait-and-switch.

The timeline for "Plaid+" is in line with what was announced for "Plaid" on Battery Day --- end of 2021.

I realize I'm making a few sketchy assumptions, so don't get too worked up over any of this. Hopefully we'll know more after the impending "Refresh Conference Call" Elon mentioned tonight. Can't wait to hear more about the powertrain as well as details regarding brakes, tires, steering wheel, and the extensive interior refresh.

This is correct. I have 2 assumptions. 1 sketchy, 1 not:
1. A bunch of people had model s performances ordered, and Tesla doesnt want to honor that price so they changed the name, forcing people to pay the new price.
2. Theyve switched all their motors to be model 3 motors, and 2 of them werent powerful enough to meet model s performance specs so they had to add a third, and then call it plaid.

 

[Krugerrand]

No that’s not what I was referring to. It’s not that they are keeping their cards close to the chest, it seems like they aren’t sure themselves about the near term. Like the Tesla Semi. The date keeps getting pushed back again and again. Why was it revealed over 3 years ago with deliveries promised in 2019? We are now still over a year away from it being produced. It just makes Tesla lose credibility.

Batteries. Making changes based on what potential clients.

 

[Pezpunk]

I love how FSD is all the same system with only physical constraints and maneuverability. They just tell the computer it's a Semi and it will adjust. Here I thought Semi would need to relearn, but now it sounds like just some changing parameters.

this is because the bulk of the "learning" as far as AI is concerned is not in how to drive, it's in identifying the environment and situation. Most of the actual driving is human-written code.

 

[Todd Burch]

RE the steering wheel yoke, when I think about where I put my hands when I drive (which is less than half of the time), it's almost always on the bottom or right where the horizontal piece meets the wheely-part. So I think on net, not having the top half of the wheel could be nice. (Looking through the wheel to see the IC behind it is always a pain). I think I'd have to try it before I decide, but I ain't gonna knock it just because I haven't tried it.

 

[phantasms]

So the "Plaid" they released today is really just 18650 battery with a tri-motor drivetrain, while the "Plaid+" is the vehicle they initially described as "Plaid" on Battery Day. (i am making an assumption here that Plaid+ will use 4680, but that's not confirmed)

Seems like a little bit of a bait-and-switch.

The timeline for "Plaid+" is in line with what was announced for "Plaid" on Battery Day --- end of 2021.

Yeah I think you've got that right.

My Plaid reservation is now Plaid+. I feel like the naming convention could be better.

OH DAMN! I just realized. My license plate is PLAID. Serious first world problems here. I'll have to put a + sticker or something. . Although the way things are looking I'm thinking Roadster. LandYachts are cool but I'm a driver baby. "I'm a driver. I'm a winner. Things are gonna change. I can feel it."