Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

So where are the CoD improvements coming from? I'm not seeing enough body changes to justify that drop. Maybe I just can't see the changes in the pictures?

Edit: They say "Attention to detail on all exterior surfaces makes Model S the most aerodynamic production car on Earth."

So probably lots of small tweaks.

Edit: I also just noticed the areas below the headlights (where on older Ss you have the baffles for the air intakes) are different. That's probably a big contributor.

 

[capster]

1. Lots of uncertainty because there's a lot of huge stuff coming down the pike. Naturally.
2. Glad he mentioned he won't be CEO forever. Plant the seed. The guy's only (mostly) human, people can't expect him to be around until he's 100.

Elon may just be planting the seed for the next round of negotiations for his next set of tranches.

I don’t expect those will come cheap.

 

[phantasms]

From the S details page: "New module and pack thermal architecture allows faster charging and gives you more power and endurance in all conditions."

Yeah I saw that but it also says 250kW max so hard to say. It'll be nice to see if it can lap the Ring without it pulling power.

So probably lots of small tweaks.

Edit: I also just noticed the areas below the headlights (where on older Ss you have the baffles for the air intakes) are different. That's probably a big contributor.

I think that's a major visual improvement. Those lines are what dated the car the most in my eyes.

 

[Prunesquallor]

hydrogen is the new lidar!

Yes! Hydrogen-powered robotaxi using lidar! What could possibly go wrong?

 

[capster]

hydrogen is the new old lidar!

FTFY

 

[Unpilot]

So where are the CoD improvements coming from? I'm not seeing enough body changes to justify that drop. Maybe I just can't see the changes in the pictures?

Edit: They say "Attention to detail on all exterior surfaces makes Model S the most aerodynamic production car on Earth."

So probably lots of small tweaks.

Edit: I also just noticed the areas below the headlights (where on older Ss you have the baffles for the air intakes) are different. That's probably a big contributor.

Yeah the constant improvements are a reminder of how great this company really is.
My 2017 MS is better in many ways than when I got it.

That new plaid+ though...OMG!

 

[geometro]

Just seems odd to have such a large price gap between LR and the next step up (Plaid).

The CT, M3 and MY have reasonable pricing “steps”.

 

[Sancho]

I don't know what that means? Does it mean Tesla will contract Dojo out to other companies that don't have access to a neural net?

Yes, and to companies that don’t have access to this powerful a NN.

In the call Musk reiterated that Dojo is an “order of magnitude” more powerful than anything else out there. So a company that needs to train an NN with gobs of data will send the data to Tesla to do the training.

As just one example, there’s a revolution coming in medicine, which is going to need ever more powerful NN’s. The stakes are so high that Tesla may be able to charge a pretty penny for the service.

As soon as Musk first discussed Dojo somebody tweeted asking if his company could use it, and Musk replied that yes, a Tesla service offering for this is coming. I just hope the person asking understands “Elon Time.”

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Just seems odd to have such a large price gap between LR and the next step up (Plaid).

The CT, M3 and MY have reasonable pricing “steps”.

Model S and X are boutique models, they aren't going to make a bunch of steps for them.

Elon himself has said they keep S and X around for emotional attachment, they haven't been relevant to the company's financial success since the 3 launched.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I don't have a link handy, but I did a calculation here a few weeks ago on how much those early Roadsters reservations really cost based on the appreciation of TSLA.

Those folks got hosed. Deliveries probably won't even start until 2023 soonest.

That's OK. I probably need another 4x before I can justify getting one.

 

[phantasms]

Just seems odd to have such a large price gap between LR and the next step up (Plaid).

The CT, M3 and MY have reasonable pricing “steps”.

Check this out. The new McLaren 765LT just ran a 9.4 @ 151mph and earned the title of quickest production car ever. That car starts at $358k. The regular Plaid should beat it in a roll race on the highway and probably at the drag strip. Just like I was saying earlier the trap speed of 155 is the most staggering thing about the car.

Most anyone and everyone should and will get the regular long range version. It's a great car at a great price. The Plaid is only for performance and from a performance perspective it's a steal at that price. The Plaid+ will be a whole other thing. I'm guessing they'll get rid of the Plaid when the Plaid+ comes out. No need to have both. Zero people will get the regular Plaid. If you're making the $40k jump for performance you're going to make the $60k jump for the fastest, plus a 120+ jump in miles per charge. People will either get the long range one or you get the Plaid+ for another 20k over Plaid. And this further supports my guess that the Plaid+ will be out sooner than late 2021. Get the speed freaks with cash to burn to get the Plaid and then they'll upgrade to the Plaid+. If they said Plaid+ coming this Summer more people would wait for it.

Video of that McLaren that's no longer the quickest production car ever.

 

[kbM3]

Meeting performance and cost standards! Re in house battery coating
100Gwh 2022 goal on target!

THAT WAS THE ONLY QUESTION I CARED ABOUT!

Biggest news of the day IMO is that the new battery stuff is on-track. That's bigger even than S/X refresh. That's huge news. It guarantees Tesla will kick ass well into the future.

‘Agree about the batteries.

At Battery Investor Day I just assumed they were targeting a run rate of 100 GWh per year by the end of 2022. To hear them now state that their goal is to deliver that many during the year, while approaching 200 GWh / year by the end of 2022, is completely staggering!!!

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

But does't that count as a distribution if your shares are in IRAs?

Yes. You can't get a loan on your shares without either being blocked or taking the whole IRA as a distribution: Can Retirement Accounts Be Used As Collateral?

 

[Mengy]

I'm sure nobody cares about how FSD is causing the stock do about nothing today, but this beast is imminent. I do watch those beta videos everyday and it's the change in improvement that's impressive. Then I heard 1,000 users and growing? That's beyond beta, it's running now. FSD is THE biggest margin boost there could possibly be.

Yeah, I really think we'll see full FSD released in the last half of 2021, and I also think the SP is going to go absolutely bonkers when it does.

 

[kbM3]

So where are the CoD improvements coming from? I'm not seeing enough body changes to justify that drop. Maybe I just can't see the changes in the pictures?

Edit: They say "Attention to detail on all exterior surfaces makes Model S the most aerodynamic production car on Earth."

So probably lots of small tweaks.

Edit: I also just noticed the areas below the headlights (where on older Ss you have the baffles for the air intakes) are different. That's probably a big contributor.

So the Aero improvements plus heat pump plus undoubtedly other improvements in efficiency, while maintaining constant range must indicate a base S/X battery pack <= 90 kWh for even more margin improvement!

‘Now I can’t wait for the S/X call!

 

[Opus BC fan]

My reservation automatically updated to Plaid+
It has been a good day.

We are all on an epic journey here folks!

 

[EVWatcher]

Yeah, I really think we'll see full FSD released in the last half of 2021, and I also think the SP is going to go absolutely bonkers when it does.

FSD is a specific set of features. Full Autonomy is when the steering wheel is no longer necessary. I'm under the impression FSD will be complete by the end of the Q. Could be wrong. Full autonomy sounds like as much a regulatory issue as a technical one.

Sounds like Full Autonomy could be worth far more to Tesla as a licensing deal with other OEMs than for robotaxis. This will certainly be an exciting year.

 

[scaesare]

I guarantee you can’t afford to buy my shares. Regardless, it’s just funny that we can be so hypocritical here. The delays of the roadster and semi are laughable. Go back and watch the roadster reveal. Elon says “we’re making it now”. Sucks putting down that kind of money and still be waiting 4 years later.

I believe that was a reference to designing it and staying the planning for production at that point, not being on the cusp of production.

 

[Todd Burch]

Brooks' take:

 

[heltok]

Some of my additions to what everyone else said:

50% growth:
”Meaningfully above 50%. I think here he meant meaningfully above 750k, not for example ”above 50%” or some other interpretation. Is 800k meaningfully above 750k? Imo no. 850k yes. 1M yes. So I take this to mean that Tesla believe they will do 850k+ vehicles, which is above their 50%/year CAGR that they aim to have for the next decade. Later he said that they will be meaningfully above 50% for the next years, so I assume this means that they intend to do >50% growth for the next 4+ years. At some point I think they intend to do less than 50% but to a CAGR of 50%

DOJO:
He said Dojo is the best neural net training computer in the world by an order of magnitude. I assume this means performance per watt is ~10x that of Google TPUv3 for video labelling. Which is insane! They will offer this as a service if other companies need neural net training. Then he said something inaudible about video, waiting for transcript, but I assume that he means that Dojo is for video, not for other ML-applications. Dojo will be useful for getting the number of miles per accident from 100% of human to 2000% of human.

Licensing FSD/Autobidder:
In discussion with Auto OEM to license FSD. I wonder if this is to Germans who given up and are now considering if they should sell their soul to Tesla or Google. It should be to some company that has not comitted to having Lidar in their next flagship product, so don’t think it’s Lucid or NIO. Probably not GM. Maybe Ford, Volvo or heck even Toyota.

4680:
Tesla think they can achieve 50% of 200GWh in 2022. That is 100GWh. Let’s assume they manage to get to 90% in Q4, 70% in Q3, 30% in Q2 and 10% in Q1 for an average of 50%. If that is true that is 2.5GWh in Q1 2022. Enough for 25000 100kWh cybertrucks? Plus whatever they managed to make in 2021.

Service:
Be able to track where your service technican is on his way to you. This sounds a lot like they have done the software for ridesharing and just decided to reuse the code for service. Which indicates that they have gotten pretty far on developing their ridesharing app. It also sounds like Tesla intends to have some custom hardware/software in their service cars, maybe even make their own service cars? Cybertruck service cars?

FSD Subscriptions:
1% takerate in China. Not great for margins. I think they will hope that subscription will save them, give every customer 1month for free then they have to pay say $299/month or pay $10k for lifetime. But they will probably wait with offering subscriptions until they have wide release that they believe is good enough to charge money for. Which will be in ”next month” in US I assume. Which I take to mean wide US release of FSD and subscription in Feb/March.

Regulatory for FSD summary:
US: Dynamic space, overall not limiting on rule basis. They are working with regulators to demonstrate high relability.
RoW: ”fairly dynamic”
EU: Slowdown, not reaching past lvl3 now
China: interest on working on lvl4 and lvl5 later this year
Leadership in US looking for reliability.

China lvl4/lvl5 this year?! That would be pretty awesome on so many levels. If China allows it and it works there I assume pressure on EU and US to not be backwards will be high.

Battery suppliers:
They will take as much as they can produce. I assume that means that Tesla are willing to start storage production in China as soon as suppliers have saturated their demand for vehicle cells.