Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jhm]

Same. I doubt it's gonna hit though

I consider that a successful deflection.

 

[MartinAustin]

Just realized there's no mention of charge rate on new S. Any guesses on that?

It's still 250kW because that's what V3 supplies. Maybe they can bump it up when something more powerful is available...dunno. 250kW seems like a pretty nice wattage, and perhaps these redesigned cells have some ability to take it until higher SOC before taper. However, once you get into the Plaid+ with its 4680 cells and much larger capacity pack, you really need more than 250kW and the Cybertruck was stated to take more than that, so the Plaid+ definitely will too. So by the end of the year we will probably see higher wattages than 250kW somewhere. Elon described 350kW as a child's toy.

 

[Singuy]

Part of the reason software development estimates are bad is that humans are optimistic when estimating the future. The estimates rarely account for the unexpected, such as a pandemic.

It's been my observation that this group tends to hype ourselves up and then get disappointed when Tesla's amazing achievements don't match our hype.

I'm setting my estimate at 850,000 deliveries for 2021.

If Energy keep pace with current growth, and FSD revenue gets recognized then your deliveries estimate plus all that other revenue should equate to 100% yoy.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If Energy keep pace with current growth, and FSD revenue gets recognized then your deliveries estimate plus all that other revenue should equate to 100% yoy.

Surprisingly( or guess not).....a lot of analysts do not seem to comprehend this. We don't even know how many Semi's will be delivered this year which disproportionally affects revenue since the first Semi's will be 200k each.

 

[printf42]

That's the ONLY way it works and Elon confirmed that yesterday. FSD stays with the car. Once they offer a subscription, that will likely be monthly and will expire unless the next buyer chooses to keep/add it. This means a subscription of FSD will result in zero additional value for the future buyer and no increase in price for the seller.

This is a bigger news than people realized I believe.
AFAIK, yesterday was the first time Elon clearly dismissed the idea of transferring FSD license.

This likely means they are going subscription only model in the future, and want to slowly take fully paid FSD packages out of circulation.

I think it makes sense, given Elon’s repeated remarks over the company should be evaluated based on the utilization of the products.

We might see dramatic FSD price increase soon, or, if they stop selling it outright, the subscription price probably makes the value of fully paid FSD package rocket up.

Anyways, when they solve FSD, make sure you put your head on the headrest, someone is about to step the pedal.

 

[Singuy]

Surprisingly( or guess not).....a lot of analysts do not seem to comprehend this. We don't even know how many Semi's will be delivered this year which disproportionally affects revenue since the first Semi's will be 200k each.

I do wonder IF 4680 cells are being put into production cars, will we see a massive hit to margin? Some one should ask that question next time so then it wouldn't be shocking if margins for q4 is like 17% or something.

 

[brantse]

Since the market's closed.

 

[mickificki]

I do wonder IF 4680 cells are being put into production cars, will we see a massive hit to margin? Some one should ask that question next time so then it wouldn't be shocking if margins for q4 is like 17% or something.

not sure if this has been answered but what is Tesla currently doing with the 4680s it’s producing now, if the new s/x still have 18650’s?

plaid + doesn’t arrive till late 2021, same for semi...so where are the current 4680’s going?

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

not sure if this has been answered but what is Tesla currently doing with the 4680s it’s producing now, if the new s/x still have 18650’s?

plaid + doesn’t arrive till late 2021, same for semi...so where are the current 4680’s going?

Best guess seems to be that they are stockpiling to help Berlins model Y. Seems unlikely that they will have the german battery factory ready when they start so they need some batteries from somewhere and Fremont seems to be the only ones making any.

 

[printf42]

Since the market's closed. View attachment 631756

I gets it the bird is Tesla, who is GME then?

 

[ammulder]

not sure if this has been answered but what is Tesla currently doing with the 4680s it’s producing now, if the new s/x still have 18650’s?

plaid + doesn’t arrive till late 2021, same for semi...so where are the current 4680’s going?

To Model Y production from Giga Berlin, until their own cell production is ramped.

 

[phantasms]

I gets it the bird is Tesla, who is GME then?

...

 

[jhm]

Am Boomer. Can confirm love for the steering wheel.

Am Xer. Can confirm love for ship steering wheels.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm giving out "love" ratings like candy to anyone who transfers their robin hood accounts out. In case you didnt have enough incentive already

I’ve never had an account there. What do I get?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I'm giving out "love" ratings like candy to anyone who transfers their robin hood accounts out. In case you didnt have enough incentive already

But I've always had Schwab. Should I create a Robinhood account just so I can close it tomorrow?

 

[Prunesquallor]

I'm afraid you're giving VW a bit too much credit. It's true that ID3 deliveries only started in September, but VW had been building those cars since Spring and storing them on large parking lots awaiting a solution for their software problems. That puts that feat in a different light. There are also indications that many of the ID3s that VW registered in December had not been sold to customers. Thousands of them can still be found on dealer lots. By registering them in 2020 VW managed to lower the EU penalties for selling too few low and zero emission cars.

That is a horrible hole in the EU regs if sales to dealers = sales. I guess it will catch up to them eventually, but I see sales to dealers -> sales to customers -> sold to used car lots -> lost in the system. Looks like another compliance scam.

 

[hacer]

Just did my transfer as well. Even if they go belly up, I think the common shares you own will still trace back to you. I don't think you can transfer until all margins are paid and all options are closed.

I transferred out of RH in March last year including open options contracts.

 

[Sancho]

And while all that talking was going on, Tesla have been quietly doing this

View attachment 631540

That graph is gonna really pop when you add a column for 2021.

 

[mickle]

Sure seems like Tesla is going to have a large battery problem later this year. Where will they get enough batteries to grow 50%?

Berlin hasn't even started building the battery factory yet and apparently still needs environmental reviews.

Austin is apparently doing geo-pier work for the battery building already, so it seems this one will get built first.

Austin and Berlin will both need large volume of cells in 3-6 months, presumably 4680 size.

Maybe Panasonic, LG, or CATL start making 4680 size cells for both of these factories until Tesla can get their lines up and running?

I don't see how stockpiling 4680's from Fremont would help out with the volume of Y's both of these factories will need.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I’ve never had an account there. What do I get?

Fancy Feast.