Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RAM_Eh]

I agree with almost all of your sentiment, but cool and drop dead sexy? They are all cool tech, but sexy? Let's take a look...

The Roadster, absolutely, but not here yet.

The S, yes.

The 3, well... Meh...

The Y, looks like a potato, so no!

The X, looks like a bigger potato, again, no!

(Note: I really only like coupe styling, so may be biased. Looks are subjective, your taste and needs may vary, always read the label)

LOL Potato.... well what do you think of the Cybertruck....

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Ask 100 people which engine their ICE car has, they'll say "dunno, don't care". Only the 1% of Tesla nerds/geeks like us care. The rest just want a reliable car that's cheap on gas. Wait, no gas? Well, sold.

Most 'car people' way overestimate the importance for most people for things like horsepower, acceleration, top speed or almost any other technical achievements.

Most people obviously have a budget. But apart from that ...

95% of times I've ever discussed what car someone bought it came down to how well it worked with the kids (if any). The only other factor I ever heard before EVs came around was color, yeah really. Color is so important for many. If Tesla ever needed more demand just introduce a few more colors. Instant demand.

True, for EVs range is discussed. But it's often more like an excuse for not getting an EV at all.

 

[Buckminster]

Do you frequent r/WallStreetBets, perchance?

What's the difference?
WSBers - retards and autists
TMCers - just autists?

 

[OrthoSurg]

Volume is VERY low, guys. We're on track for just over 75% of an average day. So these drops don't typically last. And I think most of today's weakness is macro-related, due to shenanigans. Damn I hate shenanigans.

This actually reminds me of the response to one of Tesla's other quarters in 2020. Remember we all heard a bunch of good news, and the stock went down significantly, then held? Then all of a sudden BOOM, it rocketed up? This feels like that again. Price is held steady in a range, the bands narrow on the charts, then boom.

Edit: I think the big boys, seeing the upgrades, are waiting for the Gamestop nonsense to subside before their big buys.

I placed an order to add extra shares at $780.

I am just trying to factor in how much of a possible sell off could be expected of the big boys to cover their short positions before the expected big buys resume with the excellent news with the quarter earning, Plaid announcement, and all these new Model 3 and MIC Y orders filling in like there is no tomorrow.

I might try to catch half at $780 and another half of it dips further.

with the shenanigans going on, it’s a big more difficult.

 

[Yuha]

A few days after battery day, one of Jeff Dahn's colleagues at Dalhousie mentioned that the most limiting factor in charge rate is thermal.

His opinion was that the 4680 hollow center opens up the possibility to get down to 5 min full charge time eventually.

Tesla Bjørn has tons videos where he monitors the parameters of his Model 3 using an OBD2 tool while driving, supercharging etc. The observation from those videos is that the Tesla BMS likes to keep the battery temperature at about 30 C while driving but about 50 C when supercharging. If the temperature is substantially lower, the charging speed is reduced. Before or during supercharging, the battery is actively heated using the motors to produce heat which is then pumped to the battery, and the battery is quickly cooled down after supercharging has finished.

My interpretation of that is that the higher temperature reduces lithium plating allowing faster charging. On the other hand, a high temperature accelerates battery degradation, but Tesla has figured out that supercharging is short enough and rare enough event that they can afford to heat up the battery for it.

 

[Off Shore]

What's the difference?
WSBers - retards and autists
TMCers - just autists?

I feel seen!

 

[lklundin]

A few days after battery day, one of Jeff Dahn's colleagues at Dalhousie mentioned that the most limiting factor in charge rate is thermal.

His opinion was that the 4680 hollow center opens up the possibility to get down to 5 min full charge time eventually.

A heat pipe is cheap, has no movable parts and can transfer heat at a rate well above the heat flux through the _surface_ of the Sun,
Heat pipe - Wikipedia

In the context of the 4680 cell, I have been thinking about how a heat pipe is preferable to a hollow space:

1) Properly spinning the jelly roll at the center may be a challenge for getting a consistent cell quality, instead starting from some kind of mini-cylinder should be easier,

2) Giving up the central 4mm of the cell will reduce electro-chemically active volume by 0.75%,

3) This central 4mm-mini cylinder can be occupied by a heat-pipe - allowing for super-high rate of transfer of heat from the cell center towards the top+bottom of the cell,

4) The enclosed working fluid/gas can be chosen to have a boiling temperature at the optimum working temperature of the cell itself, effectively locking that optimum temperature in place for a wide range of (dis)charging speeds,

5) The heat pipe itself could be made of two copper halves - glued together at the middle with an electrically insulating glue - and could in this manner contribute also to the flow of electrons from/to the cell bottom/top.

PS. 1) + 2) + 5) would be achieved by a cheaper, open pipe thereby simply allowing the battery coolant to flow through the cell center.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Color is so important for many. If Tesla ever needed more demand just introduce a few more colors. Instant demand.

So true. My wife thinks its dumb how few color options tesla have. Hell, even I think so. As the number of them go up, I don't want to have the exact same color & car and trim as the other 36 teslas in the car park... FFS how hard can paint color choice be?

 

[RobsJester]

Can't quite figure out how the original post got disagrees, unless @Evoforce and @RobsJester know of a way to go from East of Austin to Pagosa Springs or Cortez through San Angelo, Abeline, or Lubbock, then on through Roswell before finally getting to a Supercharger in Albequerque or Santa Fe.

I “disagree” with the assumption made by someone considering an EV that a long trip isn’t possible - the limitations of driving electric are fewer than expected and hurdles much lower - once you own an EV, range anxiety is no longer a thing.

The supercharging network is vast and expanding, I accept rare corner case exists where there remains a supercharging desert in Texas, and well, in the worst case, stop by a campsite and charge for a night and sleep in the trailer - after all, that’s why you’re towing a trailer, to camp. Campsites are surprisingly ubiquitous in rural America. That’s it, THE worst case, you charge at a camp site. Besides, if there remains a hole in the supercharging map, I promise you, stations will role out there soon.

In the summer of 2013 I charged at the same Delaware supercharger discussed up-thread on a 15,000 mile trip to the furthest Six Corners of the United States in a 60kwh Model S — gleefully watching TSLA run-up from
$30 to $118 (presplit). There were only 7 supercharger stations on the Continent, and yet, I never ran out of charge, with only 227 mile of range on that 60kwh battery, and yes, I sought out all the Kitch: large balls of twine, BioSphere2, building sized potatoes, the towers of NYC and Devil’s in Wyoming. Never ran out of power.

From the launch of Tesla’s Customer Stories :
Cross-Country Trip

So, yeah, I “disagree” whenever I read a post by someone who doesn’t own an EV stating long trips aren’t possible. In EVERY instance, you’ll figure it out. I’ve never heard of someone stranded and dying of starvation because they took their BEV rather than an ICE... that’s because there is power running to virtually every structure in America - no matter how rural. If it has lights, odds are, you can charge there.

8 years after that 15k mile trip I’m kinda surprised that I still need to say this, especially on the investor form : you’ll overcome the rare corner case where driving an EV could cause inconvenience... every time... the OP said that he had enough money to buy a Model Y, then do it... have faith, order your dream and own the best, safest, quickest vehicle ever made - you’ll love every electrified mile!

 

[JRP3]

So true. My wife thinks its dumb how few color options tesla have. Hell, even I think so. As the number of them go up, I don't want to have the exact same color & car and trim as the other 36 teslas in the car park... FFS how hard can paint color choice be?

Seems as if people who want a special color go with wraps these days, so I can see why Tesla might not want to bother.

 

[RobStark]

FFS how hard can paint color choice be?

Switching between paint colors takes time and slows production rate.

I think that is the more important factor than complicating logistics a bit.

Tesla used to have custom colors like Audi and Porsche.

Now Tesla has less choice than Honda.

 

[Drumheller]

What's the difference?
WSBers - retards and autists
TMCers - just autists?

Plenty of us are tarded, scro

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

So it's all good now?

View attachment 632113

Wow you sure have a lot of time to waste. You think I’m a bear? Look me up on Twitter:

@TeslaHab

Cheers!

 

[RobStark]

Seems as if people who want a special color go with wraps these days, so I can see why Tesla might not want to bother.

People that want to switch colors every 2-4 years get wraps these days.

Plenty of buyers buy cars other than White, Black, Grey, Red, and Blue(electric)

 

[Drax7]

Late posting this update: With all the GME macro issues, I was expecting a nice Friday dip. So, I set up a series of 10 share buys in roughly $5-$10 lower increments in multiple accounts to round out in 100 share increments. I managed to catch 90 total shares at $805.10, $800.50, $795.10, $790.50, and $780.50. I still think there’s a low probability, but more serious 20% drop possible next week. Therefore, I saved some cash to buy another 30 shares to finish my last lot, and maybe buy back some sold Mar19 covered calls. While TSLA will eventually recover, this may be a GME-induced Black Swan event that will test the whole market. HODL, 2022 will be here soon.

It seems the Hedge fund shorts are unwinding their position, buying back their shorts and selling their s&p and qqq index positions.
Hence, the largest mkt cap components of the s&p index and the qqq index get sold.
Those of course include the faangs and Tesla.

Frankly msft and apple had blow out earnings, why would anybody be selling
Those positions unless they are the main components of the indexes . The same
Applies to Tesla.

Once msft and aapl go positive, should imply a signal to buy Tesla.
And furthermore, add a maybe to my hypothesis, as nothing is certain.

 

[S3XY]

Yes, that has always been what drives availability of goods and services. Even in the ICE age. The CT should be a better fit for me too.

I've always avoided crowds like the plague (turned out to be a useful behavior) and have preferred living as far as reasonably comfortable from urban centers. For about ten years I lived where I'd have to drive a hundred miles just to find a traffic light that changed colors.

Sure, I realize I'm an outlier and will be far down the list to be accommodated for all the reasons mentioned. Folks prefer to run in packs and the interstate is there for them. That has always been okay with me using ICE, but I could plan for fuel easier on the back roads than I can with a Tesla. Harder to carry the miles equivalent of a five gallon can of gas as a spare battery.

Once EVs are owned by a more significant portion of the public, those rural commercial entities will want to attract EV customers to their stores. It will happen.

I've got a few more years left in me to wait, and was only a tad disappointed not to be able to replace my ICE with a Tesla, especially now that TSLA is willing to buy one for me.

Have you tried abetterrouteplanner.com? You can try out different routes to see where and how long you need to charge. You can also test it with different BEV's. It's actually pretty accurate. You can add a weight load to your vehicle to simulate pulling a trailer but I'm not sure how accurate that part is. You'd probably have to overstate the weight to account for the extra drag and road resistance of the tires. To force it along a certain path you prefer you can just add waypoints at the small towns you want to pass through. Who knows, maybe you'll find you can get there from here right now rather than having to wait.

 

[S3XY]

LOL Potato.... well what do you think of the Cybertruck....

Wedge of cheese? Doorstop?

 

[S3XY]

So true. My wife thinks its dumb how few color options tesla have. Hell, even I think so. As the number of them go up, I don't want to have the exact same color & car and trim as the other 36 teslas in the car park... FFS how hard can paint color choice be?

The issue is the down time to switch colors. Maybe that's something the new paint shops will reduce and could allow for more colors. One can hope.

 

[Driver Dave]

Now this Crazy.

In the New York Times, GMs fluff PR announcement about having electric by 2035 got not one but 2 front page featuring stories above the fold both Friday and Saturday.

Same story. Two days. Front page news. Above fold!

Wow.

With all that is going on in the world, this non story BS press release gets two days of front page???

How does this happen?

Man, whoever is paying Neal Boudette to spin these legacy auto propaganda articles to the front page editors at the Times, give him a raise.

Friday front page:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/business/gm-zero-emission-vehicles.html

Saturday front page:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/29/business/general-motors-electric-cars.html

No wonder TSLA takes it dips. There still is so much misinformation about the auto business out there being peddled as front page news.

People still have no idea the sea change that is happening.

The front page headline should be:

GM’s Decision To Go Electric By 2035 Will Be Too Little Way Way Way Too Late.

and then

GM In 2035, Hoping To At Least Be The Next GME.

Update.

This NY Times Auto reporter must get paid somehow by GM right?
I mean that is the only thing that makes sense.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I “disagree” with the assumption made by someone considering an EV that a long trip isn’t possible - the limitations of driving electric are fewer than expected and hurdles much lower - once you own an EV, range anxiety is no longer a thing.

The supercharging network is vast and expanding, I accept rare corner case exists where there remains a supercharging desert in Texas, and well, in the worst case, stop by a campsite and charge for a night and sleep in the trailer - after all, that’s why you’re towing a trailer, to camp. Campsites are surprisingly ubiquitous in rural America. That’s it, THE worst case, you charge at a camp site. Besides, if there remains a hole in the supercharging map, I promise you, stations will role out there soon.

In the summer of 2013 I charged at the same Delaware supercharger discussed up-thread on a 15,000 mile trip to the furthest Six Corners of the United States in a 60kwh Model S — gleefully watching TSLA run-up from
$30 to $118 (presplit). There were only 7 supercharger stations on the Continent, and yet, I never ran out of charge, with only 227 mile of range on that 60kwh battery, and yes, I sought out all the Kitch: large balls of twine, BioSphere2, building sized potatoes, the towers of NYC and Devil’s in Wyoming. Never ran out of power.

From the launch of Tesla’s Customer Stories :
Cross-Country Trip

So, yeah, I “disagree” whenever I read a post by someone who doesn’t own an EV stating long trips aren’t possible. In EVERY instance, you’ll figure it out. I’ve never heard of someone stranded and dying of starvation because they took their BEV rather than an ICE... that’s because there is power running to virtually every structure in America - no matter how rural. If it has lights, odds are, you can charge there.

8 years after that 15k mile trip I’m kinda surprised that I still need to say this, especially on the investor form : you’ll overcome the rare corner case where driving an EV could cause inconvenience... every time... the OP said that he had enough money to buy a Model Y, then do it... have faith, order your dream and own the best, safest, quickest vehicle ever made - you’ll love every electrified mile!

But in the end this is the same thing as most people being more interested in color than acceleration or topspeed. Not only don't they care. More importantly they DON'T WANT to care. It's not about that it only takes 5 minutes to figure out for a whole trip once a year. It doesn't matter if it's only an issue that one time. They absolutely do not want to ever have to think about it.

By now I even think most of those at least thinking about getting an EV knows this. Many of those still don't want to ever have to think about it. For those on the fence it's what's holding them back.

In the end it doesn't really matter. For Tesla at least since they still sell all the cars they can make. As long as Tesla production doesn't surpass the demand which I doubt for the next couple of years.