Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AudubonB]

~~~The collective mass of the above posts bears just slightly enough on Tesla to remain on-site. MAKE SURE IT STAYS THAT WAY.

One way to achieve this is to answer the following question: the sum of new purchases of GME can be ascertained. To what extent could those funds, going into a stock with a market cap changing from around ~$2bn to around ~$25bn, rather having been invested instead into TSLA, with its ~$800 bn market cap, and what would thereupon have been the effect on TSLA shorts?

As a follow-up, to the extent that current investors in GME, now possessing a paper value far larger than their collective investment, were to invest in TSLA, how does that change the answer to the above question?

The reason this gendankenexperiment is of use is to demonstrate the efficacy or lack thereof of an army of minuscule investors to alter the fortunes of a large-cap company.~~~

 

[Knightshade]

After doing a search through FMVSS legislation, I found amazingly few requirements regarding steering wheels. Main item was rearward displacement in a crash.

Seems regulators could check themselves, just like Tesla most likely did.

The most relevant rule I found at a glance was one prohibiting anything that can snag clothing or jewelery- which an open wheel could potentially do that a round wheel does not.

There's also some about methods of both manually and automatically (via wheel action) actuating or turning off turn signals and other controls.

Honestly the issue seems to be there's a LOT of relevant rules but they're kind of all over hundreds of pages of regulations in random spots... (like the rules relevant to steering wheels show up in pieces under a bunch of OTHER places instead of just a single "here's all the rules for a wheel" section).

Seems the most likely reason the NHTSA was talking about the fact they said they'd need to reach out to Tesla and get more info before saying more- because with tesla both using a different shape, and also consolidating a lot of different controls, there's a number of different rules that might be relevant to check.


The fact there's pics on tesla.com (even if not easily found) showing a round wheel suggests Tesla has a plan if they somehow run into a genuine regulatory issue.

?? Tesla did a stock split, but it wasn’t a dividend. It was just a stock split. Stock splits are capital neutral, they make no difference to the market, except they allow people to buy one share easier.

Ah, I guess that’s what you mean. If they did a 10-1 stock split and made GME shares worth $30 or whatever, more smaller investors would be able to buy without buying fractional shares. There are legit reasons why they don’t want to do that though. Eventually when all this blows over (like in a year), the stock price will come down and no company wants their stock price below $5/share since there could be punted off the exchange if the per share price got too low.

The split was issued as a dividend.

Much debate ensued if this was a material thing or not.

There was a theory here, from Artful Dodger among others, that this fact is WHY it spiked the stock so much- shorts suddenly needing to deliver real shares as shorts are responsible for paying issued dividends.


AFAIK the folks supporting that theory believe it's still correct (and certainly the share price spike and significant decline in short interest in this period suggest they might have a point)

 

[SpaceCash]

Must we go over this debate again? My memory may be going, but I'm pretty sure that tsla did do a dividend split. Without checking any notes; can't see your data here either. And that's why shorty had such trouble finding the true new stock, valued at exactly the same level but only issued to registered share owners. It took some dealers a week to come up with the freshly issued items.

It was a standard stock split. The "dividend" language is purely technical in these instances and standard in all splits.

Anybody making arguments to the contrary looks exactly like this:

 

[Jack6591]

In my view, all CEO Compesation should be tied to long-term market capitalization.

Why CEOs make so much money

 

[corduroy]

So sick of seeing shorts get to publish their BS on the front page of major websites.

Tesla's dirty little secret: Its net profit doesn't come from selling cars - CNN

Excerpt from the foremost expert on Tesla :

"These guys are losing money selling cars. They're making money selling credits. And the credits are going away," said Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research and one of the biggest bears on Tesla shares."

 

[coolmanfever]

less than 24 hr market opens tmr, thumb up if you think Tesla will hit 900 tmr

 

[Lessmog]

So sick of seeing shorts get to publish their BS on the front page of major websites.

Tesla's dirty little secret: Its net profit doesn't come from selling cars - CNN

Excerpt from the foremost expert on Tesla :

"These guys are losing money selling cars. They're making money selling credits. And the credits are going away," said Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research and one of the biggest bears on Tesla shares."

So, what is the dirty little secret between CNN, CNBC and Gordon then? When will that one be splayed all over prime time, eh?

 

[canoemore]

One of the frustrations of being a TMC Mod is that correcting for errors of usage is not on the table.

FORTUNATELY THIS DOES NOT APPLY TO COPIED TWEETS! And especially when emanating from the NYTimes.

Or perhaps Neal is from the North Country, as only an Alaskan or Yukonner would think that a cache has cachet:
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View attachment 632417 View attachment 632418
I guess this must be Neal's vision of the Right Bank Hotel.....

Is that Dick Proenneke's food cache at Upper Twin Lake?

 

[Lessmog]

It was a standard stock split. The "dividend" language is purely technical in these instances and standard in all splits.

Anybody making arguments to the contrary looks exactly like this:

View attachment 632628

Alright, it be technical, but it got the job done, mopping up a lot of fake shares (naked shorts?) and produced a pretty squeeze.
I have no wish to rehash the debate of late summer, so let's all just agree to disagree on that technicality. OK?

 

[scaesare]

Weekend Speculation

it is interesting how they are setting up at least 1 possibly 3 (or more) Gigapresses very early in Austin, and I don't think they did that at Berlin.

Could these be the bigger machines for the Cybertruck?

Well the machine they are setting up sure is big, but it might be hard to compare to the size of the Fremont presses.

I've been thinking about this since Elon mentioned the 8,000 ton casting machine in the Q3 call... if the CT is an exoskeleton engineered vehicle make from folded/bent stainless sheet steel. What would a casting machine... er... cast?

And similarly, the sheet steel isn't stamped/pressed, it's laser-cut then scored/bent...

 

[scaesare]

I'm finding some of the commentary about the steering yoke, in the media, and on social media very comical.

People are sure it is not legal and unsafe, and that Tesla has tossed it on at a whim, without checking the safety regulations.

In all cases these people:-

1. Haven't tried it
2. Probably don't know the law.
3. Haven't thought about how it could work.

From a quick Google check on laws, I found no definite evidence it would be illegal anywhere.

As to how it could work, it could have a variable ratio which other cars have had in the past. FSD also knows the speed the car is travelling and the curvature of the road. When Autopilot is engaged, FSD has to take corners. So if it has a variable ratio, FSD can assist in choosing the right ratio for the situation.

Next we come to the turn signals and a thought experiment I did yesterday, IMO there is a good chance I can hit these signals with my thumb without taking my hand off the wheel, or by not taking my hand far off the wheel. I also think with practice there is some chance I can hit the turn signals without looking at them hence not taking my eyes off the road.

If that is correct, I hope the most important controls on the other side of the wheel are closest to normal hand position.

As to exactly how well this would all work, I would have to try it.

Yeah, it's not like Tesla could not have researched the pertinent regulation and made sure their design complies...

I wonder what regulations exist around steer-by-wire? Currently there's mechanical linkage between steering wheel and steering unit... FSD is just able to mechanically actuate that via the power-assist unit.

Is that mechanical linkage required? Or is it simply historically been engineered that way as a basic safety fallback?

Interestingly, throttle/accelerator used to also be mechanical for years... but some time back many (most?) vehicles transitioned that to a drive-by-wire system...

 

[Lessmog]

I've been thinking about this since Elon mentioned the 8,000 ton casting machine in the Q3 call... if the CT is an exoskeleton engineered vehicle make from folded/bent stainless sheet steel. What would a casting machine... er... cast?

And similarly, the sheet steel isn't stamped/pressed, it's laser-cut then scored/bent...

Having absolutely no idea, it appears to me that maybe even an exoskeleton vehicle needs an undercarriage/chassis where wheels etc are connected, and that might not be made our of bent SS? For a heavy vehicle the chassis may also need to be pretty hefty, so why not a super-casting?

 

[Darkfox021]

I've been thinking about this since Elon mentioned the 8,000 ton casting machine in the Q3 call... if the CT is an exoskeleton engineered vehicle make from folded/bent stainless sheet steel. What would a casting machine... er... cast?

And similarly, the sheet steel isn't stamped/pressed, it's laser-cut then scored/bent...

The rear underbody

 

[SpaceCash]

Alright, it be technical, but it got the job done, mopping up a lot of fake shares (naked shorts?) and produced a pretty squeeze.
I have no wish to rehash the debate of late summer, so let's all just agree to disagree on that technicality. OK?

Amen! I'm not arguing about its positive effects, just trying to put to rest (as I did when the issue was current) conspiracy theories about the nature of the split being different or "special".

Moving on...

 

[capster]

Lets call GameStop for what it is. 1700% increase in two weeks over little change in their business outlook. This is plain and simple a pump and dump game of monstrous proportions. Fundamentals be damned. Yes, I get it. The small Retail Investors sticking it to the big bad Hedge Funds. With a coordinated effort, buy shear volume of players, the Retail Investors are now able to fight back.

GameStop
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I don't like the comparison of GME with TSLA. Yes, Tesla was and is continued to be targeted by Hedge Fund short selling, however this is where the similarity ends. Tesla's business model is constantly and continually progressing massively to the upside, making great products and helping to save our planet, justifying their share price run up.

Gamestop needs our help? Not from me. I am fighting the big bad Hedge Funds by continuing to hold and buy more Tesla. Hedge Funds have lost $40B shorting Tesla in 2020 alone. I am doing my part fighting without feeling the need to buy an overinflated, outdated bricks and mortar business with a run up musical chair mentality which will end badly once the game stops and another target is chosen.

It is morally distasteful to bet whether some poor guy is going to get hit by a bus.

It is murder to push the fellow in front of the bus.

The short trade on TSLA was for a long time an attempt to kill Tesla the company. This was done in part by attempting to deny it access to capital. The papers also participated by publishing hit pieces to discredit Tesla, Musk, and their cars.

The SEC knowingly turns a blind eye on these attempts to kill companies and, in the case of Musk’s tweets for example, sometimes lends a hand. Hmm, that seems like regulatory capture.

Broadly speaking, the ability of shorts to strangle fledgling companies in the crib stifles innovation in the country and insulates entrenched players from the need to adapt. This saps the competitive strength of the US.

When our government fails in such a way, it is entirely right and correct as well as necessary for its people to exert a rectifying action. Indeed, it is our patriotic duty. Yes, even if we have to make a small sacrifice.

If the predatory shorts who were caught out in the GME trade can be ruined and their wealth transferred to our youth, so much the better.

Perhaps our federal regulators will wake up to the threat posed by the modern short playbook. Perhaps they will make short action more transparent. Perhaps they will restrict or eliminate the ability of market makers to abuse their power to naked short.

One can hope. One can also chip in a few bucks.

 

[Hock1]

?? Tesla did a stock split, but it wasn’t a dividend. It was just a stock split. Stock splits are capital neutral, they make no difference to the market, except they allow people to buy one share easier.

Ah, I guess that’s what you mean. If they did a 10-1 stock split and made GME shares worth $30 or whatever, more smaller investors would be able to buy without buying fractional shares. There are legit reasons why they don’t want to do that though. Eventually when all this blows over (like in a year), the stock price will come down and no company wants their stock price below $5/share since there could be punted off the exchange if the per share price got too low.

Apparently you are not aware of the havoc that the stock split, in the from of a dividend that TSLA issued, caused to many of the shorts who had to deliver 4 shares for every one they had shorted. You really don't know what you are talking about.

Edit: Thanks Lessmog.

 

[scaesare]

The rear underbody

So non-structural, but rear drive/suspension carriers? Otherwise it's just truck bed back under there, right?

 

[scaesare]

Having absolutely no idea, it appears to me that maybe even an exoskeleton vehicle needs an undercarriage/chassis where wheels etc are connected, and that might not be made our of bent SS? For a heavy vehicle the chassis may also need to be pretty hefty, so why not a super-casting?

Yeah, replied to similar post about the underbody perhaps being the drive/suspension carrier pieces.

For an exoskeleton vehicle where the vehicle skin is the frame as well, what is a "chassis"?

 

[Joe F]

Let’s really call GameStop what it isn’t: It’s not Tesla, nor should it be taking over this thread.

Please take it where it belongs. You all should know better...

 

[Lessmog]

So non-structural, but rear drive/suspension carriers? Otherwise it's just truck bed back under there, right?

Yeah, replied to similar post about the underbody perhaps being the drive/suspension carrier pieces.

For an exoskeleton vehicle where the vehicle skin is the frame as well, what is a "chassis"?

Yes, like I said, what the wheels etc connect to. Seems kind of structural? Unless whompy wheels ...
Not at all into automotive engineering, but in no car of mine did the wheels attach in any direct way to the mudguards.
We seem to converge on a definition here