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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I don't know about that. I feel like I can extract a lot of 'color' from light banner. My takeaway after the first 20 minutes, is that Elon is in prime form, relaxed, comfortable and happy with his current situation. As an investor, that's important to me. As someone who likes Elon and appreciates his contributions to humanity, that's priceless.
Indeed, Elons mood should not be taken for granite.
 
Agreed. Maybe there's Cybertruck update and FSD subscription around the corner. I expect 2021 to be the year of FSD and 2022 to be the year of "now watch what we can do when we have enough batteries".

I for one will continue to be aggressively buying dips. But personally I wouldn't go on margin now.

FSD leasing (and maybe initial uptake %) could be a nice announcement, but Q1's are typically low on deliveries (and why I think they held back with the Model Y in China until Jan). I still find it odd that only (edit: corrected 1-2%) Chinese purchased FSD. Maybe the traffic is crazy-er over there.
 
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https://twitter.com/deitaone/status/1356250226760278017?s=21
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As others have noted, having the top spot with regulatory credits and EV popularity (not to mention Tesla's Supercharger network) means Tesla can be fast and loose with pricing to be super competitive. This makes it harder for the competition to enter the space ICE makers to compete and shows other EV makers the way to success.

FTFY

It's important to never forget the real competition is comprised almost entirely of outdated internal combustion vehicles. EV's have so many inherent advantages and a built-in cost advantage that are increasing every year such that only EV makers will win and the total market is large enough that there will almost certainly be a number of winners that are not named Tesla. The market will pick the winners. These EV producers will primarily compete with ICE as well. I see no evidence they will compete with Tesla to any significant degree. But they don't have to be competitive with Tesla to succeed. Tesla cannot make enough cars or expand their product line fast enough to fill all demand. The other "winners" will only be winners because the competition is so handicapped with outdated and inefficient internal combustion technology.

Even though these truths have been obvious to any one paying attention over the last several years the market is, just now, starting to recognize that these truths are undeniable. That's not to say Tesla is incapable of making huge missteps that could result in a different outcome, but I just don't see any evidence that has much chance of happening. This is what people with real money on the line have been starting to realize.
 
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TipRanks - 5-Star - Alexander Potter: https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/alexander-potter

StreetInsider - this morning: Tesla (TSLA) PT Raised to 'Street High' $1,200 at Piper Sandler; 'Don't Sell the Stock Despite Surge'

Excerpt:

Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter raised the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to a 'Street High' $1,200.00 (from $515.00) while maintaining an Overweight rating.

Potter said while 2020 was a breakout year for TSLA, they believe "the fireworks aren't over."

Despite a 10x return over the past 12 months, they don't think investors should be selling this stock.

"To defend our new price target of $1,200, we are publishing a 100+ page report entitled The Definitive Guide to Investing in Tesla," Potter commented. "While it is more exhaustive than anything we have published to date, even our expanded model does not capture all potential revenue streams. Indeed, with Tesla's target industries still embracing outdated business models, it may be decades before this company runs out of new opportunities to pursue."
 
FSD leasing (and maybe initial uptake %) could be a nice announcement, but Q1's are typically low on deliveries (and why I think they held back with the Model Y in China until Jan). I still find it odd that only 10% Chinese purchased FSD. Maybe the traffic is crazy-er over there.
Wasn't the number more like 1-2%. I don't think we have a number from Europe at all but it's got to be much lower than the US as well.

A combination of different regulations and Tesla simply not spending the same resources, as they shouldn't, developing versions in a bunch of different countries before they have a fully working version in the main market. Since FSD gives a lower perceived value in countries other than US (and maybe Canada?) less people buy it. Totally expected.
 
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Wasn't the number more like 1-2%. I don't think we have a number from Europe at all but it's got to be much lower than the US as well.

A combination of different regulations and Tesla simply not spending the same resources, as they shouldn't, developing versions in a bunch of different countries before they have a fully working version in the main market. Since FSD gives a lower perceived value in countries other than US (and maybe Canada?) less people buy it. Totally expected.
Plus we have longer commutes on average, more highways/suburbs etc.
 
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FSD leasing (and maybe initial uptake %) could be a nice announcement, but Q1's are typically low on deliveries (and why I think they held back with the Model Y in China until Jan). I still find it odd that only (edit: corrected 1-2%) Chinese purchased FSD. Maybe the traffic is crazy-er over there.
My guess is that offering FSD subscription will occur after FSD Beta is on general release (in the US). Not sure it will have much impact on the share price until there is some visibility on uptake.

It also raises the question of how FSD will be treated in the accounts. I will make another post on this aspect in the Near-Future Quarterly results thread.
 
I think a lot of this is down to the poor perception of American manufactured cars that we have in Europe, which I'm sorry to say, has been reinforced by Tesla over the years. I'm not saying that EU designed/built cars aren't without issues, but my Model S and Model X were not even to the same level of build or fit-and-finish and my pre-Tesla Volvo or pre-Volvo Renault.

You are comparing Tesla's first 2 real products (Model S and X) with car companies that had been in business for a century.

Step forward to the Model 3 compared to a top of the line 2020 Volvo S80 T6 built in Sweden. Pricewise, the Volvo was between my wife's RWD Model 3 and my Performance Model 3. But both of our Model 3's are better built cars than the Volvo. Both are faster than the twin-turbo straight six cylinder Volvo. Both handle better. Both are more reliable. Both cost less to operate and maintain. Both are more fun to drive. And the top of the line Volvo was no slouch in any of those areas. The Volvo was quieter and slightly more "luxurious" if that's what you want but the newest Model 3's have moved closer to that already. It's not that Tesla doesn't know how to match the Volvo in those areas, it's that it comes down to weight, efficiency and cost as the BEV powertrain had a built-in cost disadvantage that is rapidly evaporating. Obviously, early Tesla buyers put a premium on things other than luxury.

I question whether you really are a S3XY old man when you say things like that. New car buyers are getting younger and know what they want. And it's not their parent's old-world view of what's really important in a car.
 
My guess is that offering FSD subscription will occur after FSD Beta is on general release (in the US). Not sure it will have much impact on the share price until there is some visibility on uptake.
That depends on how they present it. With some specific wording regarding how they see this changing customer behaviorism just starting subscription could push share price significantly.

Not sure Tesla wants that at this time though. So they might actually downplay it initially.
 
Model X/S first possible delivery in Norway is now September...That's eight months without any supply!

I'm actually very curious as to what the order rate and also the mixture of trims with the Plaid. Hopefully they're prioritizing Plaid orders first. That's nearly double the revenue(at higher margin) than the old LR S. Could make a significant difference in terms of keeping S/X revenue stable while actual deliveries is lower until they're fully ramped.
 
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Agreed. Maybe there's Cybertruck update

We just got one.

Major design work is done- but Tesla will be "very lucky" to build any this year, likely volume production in 2022- both per Elon and the Q4 call.


and FSD subscription around the corner. I expect 2021 to be the year of FSD and 2022 to be the year of "now watch what we can do when we have enough batteries".

Agreed on FSD, though that's mostly be an NA thing as we just learned take rates are terrible in China, and that the new FSD will likely be heavily nerfed in the EU for the foreseeable future.


Other "news" things to expect this year will be more details on Plaid Plus...First Y production out of Berlin and Austin... updates on how the battery scaling is going as they work on producing outside Kato... and, probably given the gaming PC in the S/X- more details on the Tesla App store with potential to be another major almost-all-margin revenue stream.