Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

Breaking News:

We have the first ever look at Apple's EV:

Spoiler

 

[dhanson865]

Elon kind of told Sandy to not buy an early production run Tesla
"either buy it right in the beginning or when production reaches a steady state"
I mean I appreciate the honesty but not a great way for the CEO to support his product.

It's more like he said

* if you can preorder / get in on the very early production run do it
* if you can order when production is stable do it
* if you order while production is ramping quality might be lower.

that in no way means not to buy an early production run. It means an early production run is better.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'll be interested to see if the Roadster includes 42V and/or carbon-fiber.

Lol, Sandy said "42V" and Elon immediately corrected him "48V". You watched the video, right?

Cheers!

 

[insaneoctane]

GM has a pretty great commercial

Would you agree that this GM commercial increases EV awareness and therefore likely benefits Tesla sales in a net positive way? Hmmm.

EDIT: Sorry, but I responded to this before reading many similar comments.

 

[larmor]

Tesla China-Designed New Model from Giga Shanghai Is Moving Forward, G (tesmanian.com)

Tesla has received environmental report approval for Gigafactory Shanghai that shows that new manufacturing processes have been added for a “new model early launch project.” It may indicate not only that the company has already developed a new model, but also intends to begin production soon.

New model incoming it seems.

This is likely the unnamed product mentioned by thestreet.com from the conference call

 

[Discoducky]

I am very confident Hummer will sell as well for as long as Model S.

It is what many want without the guilt or public scorn of the ICE Hummer.

What are the target sales for each vehicle? I can't imagine more than 20k/yr for the Hummer; unless their are massive discounts. If they sell it at a loss then of course they could sell more.

I don't want them to fail and I'm glad they are investing. FYI

Moving conversation about Hummer to dedicated thread: All discussion of the Hummer EV

 

[Tyler34]

So something that I've been wondering since the earnings call and may have missed if it was discussed here. What ever happened to all that deferred tax credit revenue we were supposed to pull forward once the auditors thought we would be profitable moving forward? Does tesla think there could be non-profitable quarters going forward? Are we going to get it in q1? What gives? @The Accountant @FrankSG

 

[kbM3]

What really caused the S/X sales to drop was Tesla’s removal of the lower variant. Many of those sales most likely went to the higher end model 3. Newer tech.

Now the S/X are back to being flagship vehicles.

And GM’s ads will help.

‘That’s not what happened. Sales of SX dropped first, and then the elimination of the 75 kWh trim was Tesla’s response.

 

[johnm6875]

Not sure about the validity/accuracy but I like the visualization.

The information was based on what is known about battery and vehicle production and what is expected. Pretty exciting growth. I hope the raw materials can keep up with manufacturing capability.

 

[The Accountant]

So something that I've been wondering since the earnings call and may have missed if it was discussed here. What ever happened to all that deferred tax credit revenue we were supposed to pull forward once the auditors thought we would be profitable moving forward? Does tesla think there could be non-profitable quarters going forward? Are we going to get it in q1? What gives? @The Accountant @FrankSG

I had suspected we would not see it in Q4 2020. I wrote about it here:
Near-future quarterly financial projections

 

[JRP3]

that in no way means not to buy an early production run. It means an early production run is better.

I see it as buy the first low volume vehicles, avoid the early increasing volume production run, buy when we figure out how to do it right. Production run for a model covers many years, Tesla apparently took 3 years to figure out the Model 3 according to Elon. He basically said the January 21 build was better than December 20 build that Sandy had.

 

[SO16]

‘That’s not what happened. Sales of SX dropped first, and then the elimination of the 75 kWh trim was Tesla’s response.

‘That’s not what happened. Sales of SX dropped first, and then the elimination of the 75 kWh trim was Tesla’s response.

Hm. 2018 sales were decent. 2019 dropped. Word was spreading about a refresh and Elon tweeted on Jan 9th that they were stopping the 75 version. So if not this, then what?

https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1083141248872075265

Tesla Model S US car sales figures

 

[insaneoctane]

Thanks for that. Tesla really should be sending these to warmer climates it sounds like. Not really a good look even if they solve the problems quickly since first impressions matter.

Model 3 with LFP cells: The big nextmove winter test

Detailed charging-report from Germany for the MIC M3 with LFP-Battery (all SR+ RWD).

(Including video with reports of people where i.e. the car goes from 14% to 0% instantly)

Main Takes:
- LFP still seems to be shaky & customers are used as "test-subjects"
- Dial-in of the BMS takes time & is much harder than with NMC (in China people got asked to charge up to 100% once a week)
- 440km WLTP-Range -> drops to 150km in Winter under bad circumstances
- 250km in winter under "good" conditions.

This has the potential to be a train wreck IMO. Unless they’ve got a “bad” car, the terrible cold weather performance (range, efficiency, and charge rates) demonstrated in this article is abysmal and leaves the door wide open for other Chinese companies to exploit an apparently weak battery offering (LFP) by Tesla. I really hope Tesla jumps on this and performs appropriate information or damage control. I think one of Tesla’s key differentiators is their superior battery tech. Keep an eye on this one.

 

[Cattledog]

For those of you who have not yet viewed Elon interviewed by Sandy Munro, it is a must listen. Elon is at his best.
My favourite part is at 14:57 when Sandy states "THIS (Tesla's FSD) will save more lives than air bags, seat belts and anything else that anyone else has gotten. I was so impressed, I couldn't believe it...I want the rest of World to know what the new standard is."

I think at 48:11, when Elon gets emotional about saving lives, that's our differentiator.

 

[Nocturnal]

I think at 48:11, when Elon gets emotional about saving lives, that's our differentiator.

He did the same in that video where the interviewer pointed out that many people even in Australia have trouble affording power and food. He paused, thought for a second, and said "Sure, I did not expect that. Hmmm. We'll work harder". My investment gains aside, it's so gratifying to know that I'm invested with someone like that.

 

[mongo]

‘That’s not what happened. Sales of SX dropped first, and then the elimination of the 75 kWh trim was Tesla’s response.

That is what happened. From the delivery data, the drop occured after the cancellation. 2018 total sales were only 2% lower than 2017 with Q2 and Q3 higher year over year. The US EV credit drop didn't help either.

S/X deliveries:
Q1 2016: 15,510 (X ramping up)
Q2 2016: 14,402 (upgradable 60 kWh packs and S refresh)
Q3 2016: 24,821
Q4 2016: 22,252
2016: 76,958

Q1 2017: 25,051
Q2 2017: 22,026
Q3 2017: 25,915
Q4 2017: 28,425
2017: 101,417

Q1 2018: 21,815
Q2 2018: 22,319
Q3 2018: 27,710
Q4 2018: 27,607
2018: 99,475 (per Q4 letter)

75kWh S/X discontinued Jan 2019
Q1 2019: 12,091
Q2 2019: 17,772
Q3 2019: 17,483
Q4 2019: 19,475
2019: 66,821

 

[MC3OZ]

This has the potential to be a train wreck IMO. Unless they’ve got a “bad” car, the terrible cold weather performance (range, efficiency, and charge rates) demonstrated in this article is abysmal and leaves the door wide open for other Chinese companies to exploit an apparently weak battery offering (LFP) by Tesla. I really hope Tesla jumps on this and performs appropriate information or damage control. I think one of Tesla’s key differentiators is their superior battery tech. Keep an eye on this one.

My understanding is the LFP pack is essentially provided by CATL.

There are plenty of very cold places in China, and Tesla should have done cold weather testing, especially before shipping to Europe.

The main competitor to CATL on LFP is probably BYD.

There might be issues with the BMS and integrating the CATL pack into the car.
So we need to see what the actual problems are and if they can be fixed.

LiFePO4 (Lithium Iron) Powersports Batteries & Cold Weather.

LiFePO4 batteries have an operating temperature down to about 0°F and we’ve heard of people using them at temperatures below this. We’ve even tested them ourselves right out of a freezer, and they worked, but that doesn’t mean they will always work! Most customers can start their vehicle on the first try when above 20°F if you keep in mind some cold weather starting tips.

Once temperatures start to reach the mid-40s it is often helpful to warm the battery before starting. This doesn’t mean you need to wrap your battery in an electric blanket, or take a blow dryer out to heat up the battery! Instead we suggest running your headlights, running lights, or an accessory such as the radio for 30 seconds prior to starting your ATV.

 

[tinm]

If I'm not mistaken, I recall it was @tinm.
Who seems to have left TMC

Have not posted since September 2020 due to moderator threats and harassment and repeated deleted posts (no doubt this will vanish too). I’m still around TMC but refuse to participate anymore because of you know who.

Been working on a Tesla book for 3 1/2 years. Seen and have learned a ton that is not widely known about many facets of the Tesla story. Bizarrely, Tesla has been completely uncooperative, lied to me since day one, they seem intent on sabotaging the project at every opportunity even though it is a very pro-EV, pro-Tesla Mission, pro-Tesla, “Pravduh” type book. Utterly unlike Higgins’ book. Elon himself has been a complete d***, toying with me for at least a year about an interview but remaining steadfastly uncooperative while granting shallow interviews with fanbois but rarely any serious journalists. So it goes. Onwards.

Love to you all (minus a few).

 

[Thekiwi]

Have not posted since September 2020 due to moderator threats and harassment and repeated deleted posts (no doubt this will vanish too). I’m still around TMC but refuse to participate anymore because of you know who.

Been working on a Tesla book for 3 1/2 years. Seen and have learned a ton that is not widely known about many facets of the Tesla story. Bizarrely, Tesla has been completely uncooperative, lied to me since day one, they seem intent on sabotaging the project at every opportunity even though it is a very pro-EV, pro-Tesla Mission, pro-Tesla, “Pravduh” type book. Utterly unlike Higgins’ book. Elon himself has been a complete d***, toying with me for at least a year about an interview but remaining steadfastly uncooperative while granting shallow interviews with fanbois but rarely any serious journalists. So it goes. Onwards.

Love to you all (minus a few).

Have you offered to provide a list of typed questions instead of an interview? you might have more luck that way.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Have you offered to provide a list of typed questions instead of an interview? you might have more luck that way.

I agree, to a point. Tesla has probably been burned before by such an arrangement, if not by the interviewer themselves, by people later taking questions out of context. Take the 60-minute interview where he stated, factually, he was the largest share holder so not many ways to "baby sit" him after he was removed as CEO of Tesla. People later took it to run going that it was he did whatever he wanted with the company, disregarding other shareholder's vote.