Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

By that logic - why do Tesla sell cars in Norway? Robotaxis won't work here half the year. Snow and slush make the autopilot blind. So much better then to restrict sales to areas with a milder climate? So that the cars can work all the time and not only a few months per year?

That's only true for now. I expect it will be solved after a while (likely with better cameras and devices to keep the cameras clear. Anyway, human drivers aren't much better in the snow.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The Chinese New Year's holiday is Feb 12-22, 2021. Giga Shanghai will be shut down over that period (indeed most of the country), as it was last year, as it is every year.

Cheers!

I can't seem to remember where I read this(it was a couple weeks ago) but it was a source saying Giga Shanghai will not be shutting down for CNY this year. Can't remember where I read that for the life of me and I'm far to lazy on this Saturday to dig it up.

 

[Mo City]

Already connected:

Joe just released this about 15 mins ago. He takes the first 8 mins to summarize what he understands about the main facility, including possible internal roadways. Another must watch.

EDIT: At 13:00, he shows the west structure joining eastward.

 

[RobStark]

But they were always Foxconn of cars. Produce ICE engine and transmission internally while buying every other thing from somebody else including software. Assemble the car and sell it to a dealer.

This is the current business model of any legacy auto.

Plus a BEV does not need an ICE engine and transmission.

Now they want a part of software/subscription revenues? Hilarious.

The OEMs design the car like Apple.

It is their brand on the product like Apple.

They produce the sheet metal and do final assembly.

They have a mix of company stores and dealers like Apple. Not in the US because it is not allowed.

They famously/infamously produce some of their software and buy some from vendors.

Mercedes, BMW, and VW are nothing like Foxconn.

BTW OEMs manufacture about half their transmissions and buy about half from outside vendors.

Toyota buys most of their transmissions from Aisin but Toyota owns 51% of Aisin.

 

[RobStark]

I'd be surprised if a $25k vehicle was being exported to the EU or US long term. Transport costs would be too large a fraction of the sale price. Far more likely to be build domestically in a highly automated line.

My guess? Model 2 built in Poland or other East EU country for EU and in Mexico for North America. In India for India.

Everybody has stopped shipping their Corolla equivalent around the world.

 

[RobStark]

Maths tells us: that can only be true after the point where the world market for robotaxis is saturated. Until then, a Tesla working all hours will displace more fossil fuels than a Tesla working just a few hours per day.

Yes, we must enjoy this guilt free period of private ownership of electric mobility. It may not last long.

Someone will sell me a BEV well after Tesla achieves Level 5.

Lucid,Rivian,Xpeng.....General Motors.

IF BEVs have million mile battery nobody is dumping that BEV into the Ocean after 100k miles. Eventually those miles will get driven.

 

[Mo City]

My guess? Model 2 built in Poland or other East EU country for EU and in Mexico for North America. In India for India.

Everybody has stopped shipping their Corolla equivalent around the world.

What do you think the chances are the next factory in Europe is also in Germany?

I doubt Tesla builds a factory in Mexico for export to the USA.

 

[hobbes]

https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1357725537683333120

Hm, does not seem to be as significant as it seems:

News that $BLK owns 50M $TSLA shares as of 12/31 is not the reason for TSLA surge. BLK owned 38M TSLA shares at 9/30. The entire diff (+12M) can be explained by iShare S&P-bm’d index funds that now have to own TSLA (e.g. $IVV and $IVW together bought ~10M TSLA shares).

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1357733189838655491

 

[ammulder]

I need a little help appreciating Tesla insurance model and upside if someone is willing to explain it... I am being serious.
I got a quote from Tesla that was approximately 30% higher than what I’m paying. Granted, I have both a multi car discount as well as multi policy discount that helps my current price, but I think many do. How exactly is Tesla insurance going to disrupt the industry?

Well, if the whole principle is that Tesla knows what kind of driver you are, whereas a regular insurance company just treats you as pretty much average... then if Tesla wants to charge way more than a regular insurance company does, that would suggest...

 

[WattsHappening]

I need a little help appreciating Tesla insurance model and upside if someone is willing to explain it... I am being serious.
I got a quote from Tesla that was approximately 30% higher than what I’m paying. Granted, I have both a multi car discount as well as multi policy discount that helps my current price, but I think many do. How exactly is Tesla insurance going to disrupt the industry?

Same experience for us. We currently have both auto and homeowner's insurance with Ameriprise through Costco, and we get both the multi-car and multi-policy discount. Tesla's quote was 20% higher than what we're currently paying. Disappointing.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Maths tells us: that can only be true after the point where the world market for robotaxis is saturated. Until then, a Tesla working all hours will displace more fossil fuels than a Tesla working just a few hours per day.

Yes, we must enjoy this guilt free period of private ownership of electric mobility. It may not last long.

This assumes that local regulatory approval will be swift or at least timely for robotaxis. Europe alone proves that laws will always lag the technology, and that large portions of the world will continue POV/human operated taxis for decades to come.

You're also ignoring Tesla's financial model for robotaxi. They will use robotaxi fleet purchases to manage their profits, thereby minimizing taxes and maximizing the growth of Tesla's revenue stream.

 

[RobStark]

What do you think the chances are the next factory in Europe is also in Germany?

I doubt Tesla builds a factory in Mexico for export to the USA.

1) I would say low. Hergestellt in Deutschland was somewhat necessary to sell Model 3/Y to retail customers. Completely not necessary for Model 2/ robotaxi.

2) I fully expect Tesla Model 2/robotaxi to be built in Mexico for the USA/North America. It just makes too much sense. Elon is a hyper rational engineer. Not a hyper nationalist.

 

[mongo]

Obviously goods come in with different transportation methods. But Elons not gonna be able to change that most goods will come on semis/containers that are unloaded from the end. There's a reason for this. It saves space. Not sure why you think leaving the container while the truck takes off is expanding on efficiency, that's how it's done at most factories in the world. Take a look at some Shanghai videos. That's how almost every loading dock is used. Which is much easier to handle if it's unloaded straight onto a floor that is level with the rest of the factory.

Normal method:

1. Truck arrives
2. Driver gets dock #
3. Truck backs into position
   
4. Driver disconnects trailer (or waits for unload, in which case skip 5&6)
   
5. Go and find empty return trailer
6. Hook up trailer
7. Truck leaves
8. Workers unload trailer to factory storage
   
9. Empty trailer moved to holding area (hook up, move, unhook)

Internal method:

1. Truck arrives
2. Truck pulls in and stops at unload point
3. Container is removed
4. Truck may reposition at load station
5. Empty container is placed on truck
   
6. Truck leaves
7. Container is placed where the goods would have been stacked, floor is raised slightly or ramps used for forklift access. Cargo is moved in full container units instead of pallets and stays in container till needed. The containers can even be stacked to make 3-D storage. No need for shelves.

Much less time and hassle for drivers, one could almost imagine no driver (interaction) at all...

 

[Intl Professor]

Well Austin metro area is 2.5 million or so, Berlin metro area is a about 6.1 and much of the Shanghai sprawl means that someone on one side of the city might as well be from another metro region. The real question is how many people live within an hour commute of the factory. I can't answer that for any of them but I would guess that the Austin facility it is 100% . Austin is just not that big. I would think they are going to be relocating lots of people there. Eventually Tesla gets heavily burned in China. For my planning and forecast I'd discount China long term. They are letting Tesla run because it is good to push the local companies along, give it 4 years and then the interference will start and then they will get the google treatment and be cut off at the balls.

Why would they want to change attitude on Tesla? Top leadership mostly educated in engineering, as opposed to law, here. That's why they are so much better at business. Cf Harvard Business Sch. "managing our way to decline," several years ago (compared to Europeans).

Bezos and Musk–-great exemplars.

 

[hobbes]

Great video! I watched it through google translate, just use the app, select camera and point it at the screen. Didn’t learn too much useful information, it seemed like a great team from all over the country. They use networked torque wrenches and record every torque, not sure if that is standard in the industry, they said the wrench costs 10x more than normal wrenches if I understood it correctly. People seemed very hardworking and happy to be there, some came there because they had family there so I assume word of mouth is good.

I wonder if it will be as easy to hire skilled staff in Austin and Berlin as it seemed to have been in Shanghai. Berlin has 4M people, Austin 1M, Shanghai 24M. And I assume it was pretty easy to find people willing to relocate to Shanghai to work at the factory, will it be as easy in US/EU?

At Berlin there is a Mercedes plant nearby that is about to be all but shut down (20% of 2500 employees remaining). The plant´s head has already switched to Tesla along with several other managers. Should be a good source of workers, too.

 

[hobbes]

Spoiler

Starlink terminal at Giga Berlin!
https://twitter.com/tobilindh/status/1358014831937355778

 

[ZeApelido]

@tinm Elon is now ready for you!

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1358176884312272898?s=20

 

[PeterJA]

Maths tells us: that can only be true after the point where the world market for robotaxis is saturated. Until then, a Tesla working all hours will displace more fossil fuels than a Tesla working just a few hours per day.

Yes, we must enjoy this guilt free period of private ownership of electric mobility. It may not last long.

You can have your cake and eat it too. You can own your Tesla and let it work all hours too, in Tesla Network during hours when you don't need it.

After Tesla eliminates owner worries about loaning their car (such as fear of interior abuse), many owners will do it IMO. Maybe not the multimillionaires in this forum, but many other people will prefer the income.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Normal method:

1. Truck arrives
2. Driver gets dock #
3. Truck backs into position
   
4. Driver disconnects trailer (or waits for unload, in which case skip 5&6)
   
5. Go and find empty return trailer
6. Hook up trailer
7. Truck leaves
8. Workers unload trailer to factory storage
   
9. Empty trailer moved to holding area (hook up, move, unhook)

Internal method:

1. Truck arrives
2. Truck pulls in and stops at unload point
3. Container is removed
4. Truck may reposition at load station
5. Empty container is placed on truck
   
6. Truck leaves
7. Container is placed where the goods would have been stacked, floor is raised slightly or ramps used for forklift access. Cargo is moved in full container units instead of pallets and stays in container till needed. The containers can even be stacked to make 3-D storage. No need for shelves.

Much less time and hassle for drivers, one could almost imagine no driver (interaction) at all...

A much better description of what I was envisioning. The positioning of the containers via bridge cranes eliminates the traffic of fork lifts traveling to/from the loading docks and eliminates/reduces the transfer aisles. High factory packaging density.

It's also possible that the timing of the initial Tesla Semi rollout and the start of Giga Texas production is not coincidental. (Well, it IS “coincidental”). The Tesla Semis would hitch the trailer at an external marshaling area for transport into the factory.

 

[Krugerrand]

The Chinese New Year's holiday is Feb 12-22, 2021. Giga Shanghai will be shut down over that period (indeed most of the country), as it was last year, as it is every year.

Cheers!

I thought there was information out that Tesla would not shutdown and was offering OT pay for workers to stay on?