Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kanweg]

I bet that the car would be able to tell who is driving by the way it is driven. How often strong is the wheel nudged, the accelerator pushed down etc will probably be enough to distinguish the few drivers of the car.

 

[lascavarian]

You can have your cake and eat it too. You can own your Tesla and let it work all hours too, in Tesla Network during hours when you don't need it.

I would like to see this be more clever. For instance, Tesla Network participation could have option of being paid in X Corp shares. X Corp shares could be a combo of Musk companies (see Dave Lee). Builds ownership loyalty, appreciates equities and might even include a portion of a digital coin. Being creative here could compound the opportunity, excitement and growth as well as be an experiment for a Martian system.

 

[HG Wells]

OT:
Noob question: is it safe to store more than $4m worth of TSLA in 1 brokerage? or is it better to divide the stocks up to multiple brokerage?

That will vary by broker but there is a standard SIPC (500K for stock 250K for cash). More important is if you sold, how much cash is covered.
It's less than stock coverage. This insurance is meant to cover for a few bad brokers. If we had a 1928 style crash or a Carrington event it would go bust.

SPIC is meant to cover for criminal or really stupid behavior of your broker. Not if your stocks just go to zero.

SIPC - What SIPC Protects

Sept. 2, 1859: Telegraphs Run on Electric Air in Crazy Magnetic Storm

Also don't invest here.
Madoff investment scandal - Wikipedia

 

[Yuha]

An informative article on short sellers. Not TSLA specific but includes a tweet by Elon.

Naked Short Selling: The Truth Is Much Worse Than You Have Been Told | OilPrice.com

When you have the ability to sell an unlimited number of non-existent phantom shares in a publicly-traded company, you then have the power to destroy and manipulate the share price at your own will.

And big banks and financial institutions are turning a blind eye to some of the accounts that routinely participate in these illegal transactions because of the large fees they collect from them. These institutions are actively facilitating the destruction of shareholder value in return for short term windfalls in the form of trading fees. They are a major part of the problem and are complicit in aiding these accounts to create counterfeit shares.

The funds behind this are hyper sophisticated and know all the rules and tricks needed to exploit the regulators to buy themselves time to cover their short positions. According to multiple accounts from traders, lawyers, and businesses who have become victims of the worst of the worst in this game, short-sellers sometimes manage to stay naked for months on end, in clear violation of even the most relaxed securities laws.

Still, it gets even more sinister.

According to Christian, “global working groups” coordinate their attacks on specifically targeted companies in a “Mafia-like” strategy.

Journalists are paid off, along with social media influencers and third-party research houses that are funded by what amounts to a conspiracy. Together, they collaborate to spread lies and negative narratives to destroy a stock.

 

[nativewolf]

Why would they want to change attitude on Tesla? Top leadership mostly educated in engineering, as opposed to law, here. That's why they are so much better at business. Cf Harvard Business Sch. "managing our way to decline," several years ago (compared to Europeans).

Bezos and Musk–-great exemplars.

Oh bull, they have no ethics or morals and they are not that great at business, in fact bankruptcy heaven in China. CCP will shut it down so a ethnic Chinese Han owned company that is lockstep with the chinese royal family can take over the EV space. They steal. Hey don't take my word for it ask Ma. Ask the Uigers, ask Tibetians. Ask anyone that is out of lockstep. When lockstep requires a Chinese leader EV company Tesla is f'd in China. Just like google, or dupont, or Bell or any other company. To be clear, this post is meant to reflect badly on the CCP. Lots of good friends from China. CCP is running concentration camps...enough said in my book.

 

[SO16]

Oh bull, they have no ethics or morals and they are not that great at business, in fact bankruptcy heaven in China. CCP will shut it down so a ethnic Chinese Han owned company that is lockstep with the chinese royal family can take over the EV space. They steal. Hey don't take my word for it ask Ma. Ask the Uigers, ask Tibetians. Ask anyone that is out of lockstep. When lockstep requires a Chinese leader EV company Tesla is f'd in China. Just like google, or dupont, or Bell or any other company.

The more plants Tesla builds outside of China, the less Tesla is dependent on China.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I've been impressed with how well Autopilot drives in the snow and slush already (including other low visibility conditions like a drenching rain). As the system improves I believe it will eventually be more safe than most humans. Tesla might need to retrofit side camera heaters in order to handle the nastier snow/slush conditions.

The last week the road conditions were slushy and I had the front sensors warning me to stop when I wanted to accelerate at every red lights when the front camera clearly saw there was no car or anything in front of the car. The rear sensors and camera also completely covered by calcium. These are all critical points they will have to retrofit sensor washers and heaters

 

[mongo]

I think it should be clarified, Tesla doesn't know how YOU drive, they only how a specific car is driven. There could be multiple drivers sharing the vehicle. Or if you were the only driver of two different Tesla's, you might drive them very differently.

If the phone is used as the key, they have a pretty good idea who is driving. (Could even make that a requirement for the best rates)

1. Funny I have seen robots in Freemont videos doing the same thing I see humans doing such as installing the Instrument panel.

Yeah, version one of the model 3 assembly line had a lot of automation (per Elon, too much). The next lines reduced the levels of automation with the spung structure FA line having only mechanically assisted placement. Giga China is similar in letting humans do what humans are good at.

Chinese New Year is the most important holiday in China, I would imagine most workers will want to travel home and see their families. Many of these people literally only see their families once a year during this holiday if they left a village, town, or smaller city to work in Shanghai. They won't care about 2x or even 3x pay compared to that.

Maybe, maybe not. If the workers:

• Are not from a far off village
  
• Started this job recently
• Have no close family
• Would rather avoid travel during the pandemic
• Are willing to punt on one visit to help out financially
  
• Can take take vacation at other times

They will take the deal.

Not quite the same, but many in the nursing and other fields sign up as soon as possible for the Christmas and New Year's shifts due to the pay bump and their families just celebrate around the normal day/time.

As to logistics, if they get all the incoming goods space filled ahead of time, and the outbound lot empty, they can churn out a bunch of cars. Every extra car over break even puts the (adjusted for labor) gross margin on the bottom line and also increases the overall margin.

 

[ammulder]

My understanding is that since Tesla knows how you drive, they can give low rates to the drivers they judge as least likely to have a claim. This, of course, necessitates charging more for those drivers that Tesla determines are more likely to have a claim. We do know they base it on much more than age, sex, marital status and driving record because they use their driving data.

What we don't know is how they determine the likelihood of a claim from the driving data. but I would suggest they use artificial intelligence to identify for 'markers' that are highly correlated with risk. Then they assign a level of risk to each driver by running that driver's data through their filters. They have access to the traction control data, they know the speed limit and your actual speed, they know how hard you brake and accelerate, how often you talk on your phone, what kind of roads you spend most of your time on, and in what situations your driving behavior meets certain criteria.

For purposes of illustration and for the sake of simplicity, let's assume all cars on the road are Tesla's. All this implies to me that they can only take about half the market initially. However, that will leave the riskiest drivers to the other insurers who will have to raise their rates as they figure this out. At that point, Tesla will be able to capture more of the customers in the middle risk group which will cause the other insurers to have to raise premiums again and so forth until other insurers have either gone out of business or are only insuring the very riskiest drivers with very high premiums.

However, in the real world, Tesla will only have driver data on a fraction of all drivers (those who drive a Tesla). Unless Tesla runs a more efficient insurance company than the competition, they will not be able to make big gains into the portion of the market that they don't have driver data on. Of course, this could be wrong because maybe Tesla will be able to us AI to better assess the true risk of each driver using traditional metrics and this could allow them to acquire more low-risk drivers by offering them lower premiums than traditional insurers.

I know how I drive and I think my antics might place me in a high risk group (regardless of whether I belong there or not). Perhaps your premiums are so high for similar reasons. Tesla has to WANT to insure you in order to offer lower premiums than the competition.

You know, we're acting like Tesla invented this, but for what it's worth, Progressive has had a program like this that changes your rates based on driving behavior:

Snapshot Rewards You for Good Driving

If I remember right originally it was a box you installed in the car, though that page makes it look like maybe you can do it with an app? I didn't watch the video so maybe you still need a box. It could make a difference if we only had it track trips by one driver not the other... and it would certainly show less "hard acceleration" if we had it track the minivan instead of the Tesla.

Nevertheless, I haven't yet decided to take my chances on being in the unlucky 20%.

 

[st_lopes]

The last week the road conditions were slushy and I had the front sensors warning me to stop when I wanted to accelerate at every red lights when the front camera clearly saw there was no car or anything in front of the car. The rear sensors and camera also completely covered by calcium. These are all critical points they will have to retrofit sensor washers and heaters

Same conditions, though mostly highway driving for me in last few weeks. I needed to be deliberate to wipe off front sensors and radar before driving and at charging stops. Was able to have autopilot and FSD available or on for most of the driving, but there were some instances where it was lost entirely. That sucks on a highway, where now you can’t even use basic cruise control because Tesla doesn’t default to that. It’s adaptive cruise or nothing.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Some rumours for Gigafactory Shanghai:

https://twitter.com/DKurac/status/1358240347466256384

Tesla GF3 plans to reach 1.6K unit/day production in Q4, #China media citing unnamed GF3 source revealed ramp-up plan.
Mar: 300 units/day
Apr: 800 units/day
May: 1K units/day
Post Sep: 1.6K units/day

https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1358348358562287617

Tesla Shanghai Model Y factory expansion leak: Tesla plans a production ramp to 580k/year by the end of the year (!). The new Tesla Shanghai Model Y factory is almost twice the size of the Model 3 factory, which has a capacity of ~250k/year. Combined: 830k/year. In China alone.

The new Model Y factory is almost twice the size of the Model 3 factory and has higher capacity:
--> 1.5 times the footprint
--> bigger building heights, more floors.
--> "Megacast" casting machines that reduce body shop factory floor footprint by ~40%.

Here are the Shanghai capacity figures that we know:
--> Model Y (leak): ~100k/year now, ~580k/year end of year.
--> Model 3: last disclosure >250k/year.
--> Model 3: actual production 21,534 in November, 262k/year annualized. Model Y ramp leak looks credible.

 

[ZeApelido]

OT:
Noob question: is it safe to store more than $4m worth of TSLA in 1 brokerage? or is it better to divide the stocks up to multiple brokerage?

Not safe, divide.

Plz send $1m to TDAmeritrade account 5673a85k0.

I am very trustworthy.

 

[ZeApelido]

Some rumours for Gigafactory Shanghai:

https://twitter.com/DKurac/status/1358240347466256384


https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1358348358562287617

 

[heltok]

Some rumours for Gigafactory Shanghai:

https://twitter.com/DKurac/status/1358240347466256384


https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1358348358562287617

Here are the Shanghai capacity figures that we know:
--> Model Y (leak): ~100k/year now, ~580k/year end of year.
--> Model 3: last disclosure >250k/year.
--> Model 3: actual production 21,534 in November, 262k/year annualized. Model Y ramp leak looks credible.

Lets say 100k/y now, 580k/y end, linear ramp -> average 340k, 20% downtime, so only 275k. Plus 275k Model 3. Total 550k which has been the rumor. Ok, lets be a bit realistic, that is the goal, maybe they will only manage to do 90% of their goal. Still that should put them a bit over a million for the year. And Berlin starting mid 2021, should be able to do another 100k. Plus some change from Austin and Nevada. Looking forward to seeing the Q1 deliveries, think they might surprise the market.

 

[traxila]

OT:
Noob question: is it safe to store more than $4m worth of TSLA in 1 brokerage? or is it better to divide the stocks up to multiple brokerage?

Nothing wrong with splitting it up. Transferring 2M of stock to a new broker will usually count for deposit for them and they will give you swag.

I have multiple brokerage accounts. And all of them have TSLA.

 

[Tachyon]

Just curious
Does any one have an updated list of current institutional holders of TSLA?
With the news of Blackrock owning 50 million shares , I wonder how that’s affecting the available free flaot.

 

[HG Wells]

OT:
Noob question: is it safe to store more than $4m worth of TSLA in 1 brokerage? or is it better to divide the stocks up to multiple brokerage?

I have three and trade differently in each.
One, just stock.
Another one stock where I sell calls and sell puts.
Third one mostly Leaps.

Which one makes the most ? It varies with time.

 

[lklundin]

If TSLA had Bitcoin would it be disclosed on the 10K?

I’m sure Musk would have taken a call from Michael Saylor before this conference.

MSTR is at ATH and continuing to climb.

Uptrend on BTC despite no news and equities market still outperforming..

View attachment 634330

With SpaceX being serious about Mars colonization I can see how the company would have an interest in crypto-currency.

On the assumption that a crypto-currency would actually be adopted in a bi-planetary economy, I would however expect SpaceX to introduce their own crypto-currency. Otherwise the introduction of the currency would cause a massive transfer of wealth to existing holders of that currency. But if SpaceX instead introduce their own, then members of that economy (and in fact everyone) could mine this new currency, avoiding (or at least evening out) the cost of introducing it.

I struggle to find a good analogy, but a crypto-currency is a bit like a pyramid-scheme in that the inventors (can) start out ahead of everyone else, giving them a notable financial advantage.

For the same reason, I would never expect any (well-functioning) state to adopt and back a pre-existing crypto-currency, when they can just make and back their own.

As for Tesla, I struggle to see the relevance of a crypto-currency but that could just be yet another case of my lack of ability to see future developments that Elon Musk already have in mind.

PS. Now I see it: Dojo and maybe also every FSD board will be especially suitable for mining this new crypto-currency.

 

[joh01652]

I've been impressed with how well Autopilot drives in the snow and slush already (including other low visibility conditions like a drenching rain). As the system improves I believe it will eventually be more safe than most humans. Tesla might need to retrofit side camera heaters in order to handle the nastier snow/slush conditions.

I agree that over time the system will improve for driving in inclement weather--just have to give Tesla time to figure it out. IMHO a simple remedy for FSD in snowy/rainy weather would be to simply install cameras on the inside of the vehicle with heating elements to defrost the glass where the cameras peer out of. Humans can drive in poor visibility conditions because their eyes are not obscured by outside elements. Why mount the side repeaters and back-up cameras outside without coverings where they get obscured? Why not install them inside of glass, like the three forward-facing and B-pillar cameras? Maybe mount cameras on the bottom of the A-pillars so that they can see out the side windows, like a human? Cameras take up little space, I'm sure they could be mounted such that they don't interfere with entering and exiting the vehicle.

A problem I find with both the forward facing and B pillar cameras is that they don't have a defrost process for the glass where the camera lenses mount--the cameras are often frosted over for me, rendering AP useless until I clear the frost off. To employ a vision-based FSD system, it seems most prudent to make camera visibility the top priority, which means cameras inside and processes to keep windows moisture-free.

 

[Hock1]

An informative article on short sellers. Not TSLA specific but includes a tweet by Elon.

Naked Short Selling: The Truth Is Much Worse Than You Have Been Told | OilPrice.com

RICO on steroids, right in plain view. Outrageous. As I've said here many times, it's the largest financial crime ever perpetrated against the investing public, ever.