Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Oveeus]

Flat out terrible idea. We can just agree to disagree.

I’m going to love all that backing of the most valuable company in the world with no batteries for the next 5 years

Last time I checked, Apple has almost 200B in cash on hand or about 10x what TSLA has. If it wants to raise a price war on battery... very few can go unscathed. That's enough to buy out a few suppliers in the whole vertical line. And if it wants to buy battery... even if it has to lose money... it WILL get them. That's the perk of being one of the most valuable companies on earth.

Tesla might be able to shelter just fine... but the idea is simple... Apple has enough cash to do whatever the heck they want, at least for a while. There is no stopping them to try EV. And why see them as your enemy when they are going exactly the direction Tesla wants to go?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Last time I checked, Apple has almost 200B in cash on hand or about 10x what TSLA has. If it wants to raise a price war on battery... very few can go unscathed. And if it wants to buy battery... even if it has to lose money... it WILL get them.

Tesla might be able to shelter just fine... but the idea is simple... Apple has enough cash to do whatever the heck they want, at least for a while. There is no stopping them to try EV. And why see them as your enemy when they are going exactly the direction Tesla wants to go?

Ugh I don’t think I’ve ever disagreed with a post as much as this one. I’m not sure if you understand the limitations of battery production now or over the next 5 years. Tesla already has a roadmap for terra watts of battery production through proprietary advancements......meanwhile no one else has a clue as to what they’re doing, much less a roadmap or plan. Apple chest of money has no real world leverage now or for the next 5 years AT minimum because of the batteries

 

[Buckminster]

Chat about fruit. There is a thread for that. Or try here:
Hyundai and Kia Now Say They Aren't in Discussions to Develop Apple Car

 

[Paul_SF]

 

[Oveeus]

Ugh I don’t think I’ve ever disagreed with a post as much as this one. I’m not sure if you understand the limitations of battery production now or over the next 5 years. Tesla already has a roadmap for terra watts of battery production through proprietary advancements......meanwhile no one else has a clue as to what they’re doing, much less a roadmap or plan. Apple chest of money had no real world leverage here or for the next 5 years AT minimum

I don't think you realize how much money exactly AAPL has. Panasonic market cap is 33B. LG (which holds most of LG Chem) is 27B, a few miners for all the raw materials are all under a billion dollar.

With 1/4 of AAPL's war chest, it can buy enough "strategic holding" in ALL those key companies. Which can lead to 2 things: either wreaking havoc in the EV supply chain industry or business as usual. In both cases, Apple will get their EV made.

Tesla still holds a position as market leader, but then it would either have to go to war with a company that has a nearly infinite war chest (Apple revenue was 110B last Q and growing... that can finance their EVs play for a very long time). Why go to war at all in the first place? EV is a market big enough to accommodate many players. And by adopting a different strategy, say make a Teslaconn in charge to make 3rd party EVs, there are a lot of things to gain for TSLA as a whole in the long run to achieve its mission.

And disclaimer, I am long TSLA and hold no AAPL position and has no plan to do so.

I'm just thinking, there's no need for Tesla to be cocky against the 500lb gorilla that AAPL is. It can play along nicely until it too is a 500lb gorilla.

 

[abasile]

Not to worry, I live in Austin. It’s all good, there is plenty of everything.... plenty of housing, top talent, ample Mexican free tail bats, music. It’s amazing.

As compared to Alameda County, you mean?

There's no question that Austin is much more affordable than the Bay Area, and the area has more talent and available labor than around Gigafactory Nevada. Overall, Austin seems like a good choice for the new US Gigafactory.

Still, I remain a little concerned about housing shortages presenting a staffing headwind over the next few years. Maybe I'm sensitive to this because of the challenges Tesla has had in Reno and the fact that Tesla sales are production constrained. Thankfully, increasing automation, including innovations like giant casting machines, should help reduce staffing needs.

How hard is it to rent a house in/near Austin today? Zillow is showing 320 available rental houses in Austin, and the city's population is about one million. For comparison, Denver has 731 rental house listings on Zillow and a city population of about 750,000. Dallas has 1371 listings and about 1.3 million people.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla is up early in the session at Tradegate in Berlin:

718.9 Euro equals 865.39 United States Dollar (+1.54%)​

Macros are also positive:

• NASDAQ-100 Futures +0.56%
• S&P 500 Futures +0.42%

Cheers!

 

[MC3OZ]

Apple has enough finance that it will eventually find someone to build their EVs for them. And Tesla will still be unable to access anything in those cars such as entertainment, autonomy... etc.

The difficult part for Apple and any Tesla competitor is making a car that is equal or better than a Tesla for around the same price and making money.

It is fairly unlikely Apple or their partner can build the non-software part of the car cheaper than Tesla, Tesla already has all the software they need including FSD.

Apple (or whoever) has to develop the software and compete in the market place.
Outside of the cars themselves, software (FSD) and entertainment are potential income streams.

I think Apple would be happy to more or less break-even on the car, and would aim to make money from the software.
But it is a tough business, simply making the car compelling via software is hard, a combination of software and hardware is needed.

In addition, how does the car supplier make money?

There are 2 options:-

1. Mark up the cost of the car.
2. Take a cut from software revenues.

IMO it is no accident some of the companies dealing with Apple have asked for a slice of the software revenues.

Contrast this to Tesla, they already have the software revenues, so they have scope to price the car competitively, if they really need to.

So Apple might (or might not) end up being a competitor, there is plenty of market there available for all at present, but it is only available easily for the next 3-5 years. Arriving when the guests are leaving the party, or when the Super Bowl is over, is bad timing.
Once EVs are at saturation close to 100% of new car sales, we will have competition, that isn't a great time for a new player to enter the market.

 

[WarpedOne]

Apple's profess is inventing and/or changing the game. The change now is ICE => EV and it is tesla doing it for two decades already.
Apple is thus 2 decades late, it was busy reinventing the mobile music player and mobile phone.
Now it is to late to start reinventing automobile. They tried and canned the project.

Maybe in hundred years when batteries and magnetic motors are old tech and some new tech is becoming viable.

 

[lascavarian]

Apple (or whoever) has to develop the software and compete in the market place.
Outside of the cars themselves, software (FSD) and entertainment are potential income streams.

I think StarLink might play a part in Apple’s plans. They could buy quite a large position at IPO time. They have ability for proprietary chips. If they actually have some some sort of FSD IP, a chip and a global network, then they could have a compelling position for some sort of deal with a metal bender.

 

[jeewee3000]

This Apple/Tesla collaboration idea pops up every few months on TMC. It's mainly an indication we are starved of real Tesla news.

TL;DR never gonna happen, move along now.

 

[MXWing]

No one wants to deal with Apple. Just ask Epic, the maker of Fortnite.

When scorned, you’d rather smash someone than work with them. That’s where Elon is at I bet.

If Apple wants to build five factories and a worldwide fast charging network, they have the money to do so.

Investors however will be leaving in droves.

 

[Christine69420]

If Tesla outsource the software to Apple I will start diversifying. It would be a sign that Tesla has given up innovating.


Edit: To be more precise: I would not like Tesla giving up on software development. And letting Apple or others make the software for Tesla.

 

[Pezpunk]

If Tesla outsource the software to Apple I will start diversifying. It would be a sign that Tesla has given up innovating.

Your phrasing makes it unclear which direction you mean. i wouldn't mind Tesla selling software to Apple. I would mind them licensing Apple software in Tesla's vehicles (unless it's for integration with Apple products, such as interfacing with iPhones for advanced texting or music features).

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Tesla commands nearly a quarter of the world's EV sales in 2020, and it’s still just getting started

In a statement to The Driven, José Pontes of the EV Sales Blog, who has been tracking the electric vehicle market for years, noted that Tesla essentially outsold its challengers two-to-one. Estimates indicate that the worldwide BEV market sold 2,141,311 electric cars last year, and among this, Tesla accounted for 499,535 cars. That’s 23% of the global EV market, which is impressive considering that Tesla, for the most part, was producing cars in just one factory and a half.

Given the higher ASP of Tesla cars, it probably took almost half the total value and the vast majority of profit worldwide.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Day 200 of Gigafactory Austin build, this video shows the progress from day 100, then a more general overflight.

 

[truwa]

Has anyone ever thought about a possibility of a collab between Apple and Tesla?

Tesla has 4680 and its patents. Tesla already has the pilot production line running.

High volume battery production the world has never seen before with dry-electrode process.

7x more production speed in 10x less space with 70% less investment cost.

The machinery for production is also produced and patented by Tesla.

It is game over people.

All Apple trying to do is to be a player in autonomous driving with their own data collecting fleet. Unless, of course, they have a new battery production technology that is as good as 4680 while costing less. Even with that, they will be simply too late. 2025 is simply too late.

Tesla would (and should) show the door to Apple.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Powering up: UK hills could be used as energy 'batteries'

Smaller scale pumped hydro which should be cheaper and have far more potential sites than traditional pumped hydro. Potential competitor to Tesla battery storage. It will loose out to batteries in being slower to react, and to traditional pumped hydro (where available) due to smaller capacity. Civil engineering and planning delays probably means that this can't be deployed quickly.

 

[Nocturnal]

Not to worry, I live in Austin. It’s all good, there is plenty of everything.... plenty of housing, top talent, ample Mexican free tail bats, music. It’s amazing.

Torchy’s just came to KC and I’m very happy. Ours even has a full bar with great margaritas. I know this is OT but tacos are important.

 

[lascavarian]

I think StarLink might play a part in Apple’s plans. They could buy quite a large position at IPO time. They have ability for proprietary chips. If they actually have some some sort of FSD IP, a chip and a global network, then they could have a compelling position for some sort of deal with a metal bender.

And now Hyundai denying talks with Apple in regulatory filing.