Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kbeckley]

My bear concerns (in order of highest concern to lowest):

- FDS hits a new local max - it is amazing but they just cannot quite get far enough along the march of nines with the current hardware/software that people will 1) opt for it or 2) regulators will allow it.
- Similarly, they achieve acceptable level 5 safety but 5% of the time the sensors cannot deal with the weather.
- In the mad ramp of the 3 and Y production there is a nasty recall in there somewhere.
- The new battery manufacturing tech is delayed by 6 months - 1 year.
- China changes policy to really favour domestic companies.
- The one-piece casting has a long-term durability problem (hopefully this has been modelled to very low risk).
- Black swan - Elon gets hit by a silent electric Semi, 3rd party battery breakthrough.

Let me be clear that these concerns are only in the context of the current stock valuation. Near-zero concern about the company over the long haul. Would love to hear everyone’s biggest worry.

Here is what does not worry me:
Competition

Bull drivers:
Too many to list...but basically speed of innovation.

Not thrilled about the bitcoin move but trying but remain open about it.

Today I did sell (for the first time ever) a portion of my 2011-purchased shares to pay for the construction of a new house for retirement and a new Model S - which I had ordered. What a ride.

The only thing that would get me to sell the rest is a change in the mission.

 

[Singuy]

It's more about trust in Elon's judgement.\ should it all go to crap. This feels like him taking a jab at the universe to see how much juice he really has these days. Fair enough. I'm sure it will appear perfectly logical once it's purpose is revealed, but it's a head-scratcher for now.

What I'd like to know is how on board the CFO was and if the board simply rubber stamps everything Elon wants.

No way of judging causation, but the world sure seems different since this Zach Kirkhorn fellow filled the CFO roll. He initiated the calmer sandbagging strategy that appears much more bulletproof for TSLA than the previous chaos. I wonder if he and Elon were high-fiving over this or fighting?

And the board IMO was able to push Elon into capital raises during the run-up, so they hold at least some sway(lol). Did Elon make an eloquent case for this BTC move or just fax them a receipt after it the transaction was processed?

Never a dull moment! <-- or perhaps that's half the point?

Seems like

1. BTC is finite
2. BTC's value increases due to desirability, which is directly linked to it's adoption
3. Elon just saying the word BTC moves its value
4. Tesla joins the BTC train, increasing credibility to adoption overnight
5. Profit. Up 22% today already. Tesla literally gained about the equivalent of delivering 30k worth of model 3 profits for doing nothing.

Disclaimer: I always thought BTC as a moronic investment. It transformer from moronic to instant genius if I or my company have the ability to influence it's desirability.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Burn.

 

[Silentk]

Well seems like that 1.5 billion is up 20% just today. Depending when they invested, could be 2/3/4 times that.

Trust in the Musk and ye shall be blessed

 

[Dutchie]

Of what possible benefit to the mission (or the company, or to anyone, really) would that be?

if they know or have doubts, they have the obligation to disclose. That is why you see all kinds of (outlandish) risks mentioned.

 

[Paul_SF]

OT

Starlink is open on a first come first served basis.

Starlink

 

[MXWing]

Seems like

1. BTC is finite
2. BTC's value increases due to desirability, which is directly linked to it's adoption
3. Elon just saying the word BTC moves its value
4. Tesla joins the BTC train, increasing credibility to adoption overnight
5. Profit. Up 22% today already. Tesla literally gained about the equivalent of delivering 30k worth of model 3 profits for doing nothing.

Disclaimer: I always thought BTC as a moronic investment. It transformer from moronic to instant genius if I or my company have the ability to influence it's desirability.

let me simplify the virtuous cycle:

tesla like btc
Btc go up
Btc go up, tesla go up
Tesla go up Btc go up.

 

[ZeApelido]

Anyone who invests in a S&P 500 tracking fund now owns Bitcoin.

 

[LN1_Casey]

OT

Starlink is open on a first come first served basis.

Starlink

Placed my order in, but they're not expecting to serve my area until 2022.

 

[Scuttlebutt]

Placed my order in, but they're not expecting to serve my area until 2022.

Same for the Philippines.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Same for the Philippines.

Undoubtedly due the altitude. Near the equator after all.

Though you may be able to get it sooner from your *MN location.

*corrected

 

[ammulder]

More better batteries are/will be a good thing.
The world will need a crap ton.

Seriously! Let’s turn the question around: if Tesla delivers on all their battery day promises, and yet the market is nevertheless swamped with an endless supply of superior batteries, is that a problem?

Only for the oil companies, my friend.

 

[Scuttlebutt]

Undoubtedly due the altitude. Near the equator after all.

Though you may be able to get it sooner from your MI location.

I think your right about the location near the equator.

 

[MC3OZ]

Of what possible benefit to the mission (or the company, or to anyone, really) would that be?

Specifically why FSD is being held back is it is very close to right, but not perfect.

The concern is many drivers would overly relax and not supervise, so as it gets better it gets a progressively wider release.
I do think the driver profile might play a role.

This has to be carefully managed to avoid accidents and bad press.

So overall, it can work brilliantly at times, perhaps a lot of the time, but not all the time.
Whatever we call this progress is begin made.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Seems like

1. BTC is finite
2. BTC's value increases due to desirability, which is directly linked to it's adoption
3. Elon just saying the word BTC moves its value
4. Tesla joins the BTC train, increasing credibility to adoption overnight
5. Profit. Up 22% today already. Tesla literally gained about the equivalent of delivering 30k worth of model 3 profits for doing nothing.

Disclaimer: I always thought BTC as a moronic investment. It transformer from moronic to instant genius if I or my company have the ability to influence it's desirability.

My primary concern is most of my shares are bundled under long covered calls at $1300 and if Elon is now in charge of the universe that might be financially disadvantageous. Seemed like an OK proposition about 40 days ago......

 

[pjferr]

For all those who are on the fence about Elon's decision to add Bitcoin to Tesla's Balance Sheet. A few Months ago I was mulling over the difficult decision whether to add a small exposure to Bitcoin in my portfolio. What was the biggest influence in my decision to pull the trigger? Mark Spiegel is vehemently Anti-Bitcoin. Nuff said

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Mon, Feb 08, 2021: (Pre+Main Session Trading)

Headline: "TSLA 2020 10-K (now w. BTC)"

Pre-Market:

Volume: 1,647,396
SP High $877.88
SP Low $840.54​

Main Session:

Traded: $17,176,772,777.49 ($17.18B)
Volume: 19,836,102
VWAP: $865.93

Close: $863.42 / VWAP: 99.71%
TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $842.50 (+$2.50 from Thu)​

TSLA S&P 500 Weight: 1.969979% (Feb 05)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / FB $818.437B / $759.132B = 107.81%
NB: Yahoo hasn't updated Mkt Cap re 7.916M shares issued Dec 11th

CEO Comp. Status: (est'd Mkt Cap including 10-K (Feb 01) shares @ $10.32B)

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $811.70B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $515.70B

Mkt Cap req'd for 8th tranche ($450B) likely achieved Tue, Jan 19, 2021
Mkt Cap req'd for 9th tranche ($500B) likely achieved Wed, Feb 03, 2021
Nota Bene: Operational milestones req'd (chart at link).
​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 42.3% (41st Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 36.9% (44th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt ratio was 0.97% of Short Volume (50th Percentile Rank Exempt)​

QOTD: @ben a "Tesla's purchase of $1.5B in BTC up 10% this a.m. ($150m profit)"

Comment: "Bitcoin is the new Doge; not your father's Oldsmobile"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[davecolene0606]

Couple of items,
There were already a few early Signature Tesla’s bought with BTC in 2012...
Confused by Karen’s reaction to the extent of retweet the likes of Russ what’s his face la times...
Gary? Was never quite sure but now I am, nothing (including by his own posts) has changed in the Tesla story So???
The general level of attacks (Lopez on CNN, S. Rule MSNBC on 401k stuff) has gone old timey parabolic, why now?
Dave Lee tossing out inconclusive surprise...

all over 1.5bil of cash parked in BTC!?

me thinks thou dost protest to much...

way to much much emotion attached to this.

I think I’ll go w/ Kathy from ArkInvest on this.

Fire Away!
(It’s still the batteries, Stupid!)

 

[buttershrimp]

OT

Starlink is open on a first come first served basis.

Starlink

Well I’m in

 

[Maitri982]

It isn't just the shock of this reveal that has thrown people off; the uncertainty of Tesla's purpose is making some uncomfortable.

Ron Baron said it well: I look forward to learning the rationale.

What I am shocked about is that given the forward looking people on this board how few understand the brilliance of this move. Buy BTC and thank me later. I guess thank Elon too