Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sudre]

The stock price from my observations does move towards max pain most of the time. The time it does not is unexpected news comes out that pushes it higher or lower than max pain. Currently max pain is 830 and I know the day isn’t over yet but if this Max pain is a thing then why aren’t the MM’s pushing TSLA up?

That is simple. Max Pain is NOT $830. As I have said before, the printed max pain is an aggregate of more than one army.
Today THEY now WANT it under $830.
They want it ABOVE $800 (that would actually hurt to be under)
Everything between those is chicken feed. Puts almost match Calls.

THEY are trading Options today so all this can move while we don't get to see the magic wand.

The reason I say THEY is because I actually have no clue who THEY are. The 800 Puts can be a difference THEY than the $830 Calls. Could be hedge funds. Could be MMs. If the magnet works easily then it's most likely MMs. Notice how after $785 someone went "NO!" and it was immediately brought up above $800. That was almost like a nun with a ruler.

These days are fun to watch when big guys (THEY) are having a disagreement. Stay out of the way.

 

[agastya]

Correct and I was about to show the visual of what you just explained. Sure, TSLA rides with the macro swings mostly, but then it gets thrown around 10x on stupid stories that take advantage of the limited math knowledge out there. The sharp rises happen when people come to realize the truth, and the truth on FSD is about to come out, and technically already did with Germany already on board. I can't wait for $1,000+. Might take a few months so just gonna ride out whatever this thing is. Think coil spring - Boing!


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This is generally a quiet time between quarters ... In the absence of any news catapulting the stock higher, TSLA is still tracking with the market broadly (if you compare with SPX - it is a similar looking graph)

We are simply prone to more swings and that is expected given TSLA's beta is double that of the likes of APPL and AMZN.

 

[asburgers]

Is it better to do this when SP and LEAP prices are higher, or better to do this when SP and LEAP prices reach a new ATH? My simian mathematical abilities preclude wrapping my head around this.

All else equal - You typically want to go long on options when implied volatility is low. It's relatively low right now so it could be a good entry point.

 

[dww12]

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How can I buy some of those 2025 expiration calls?

Selling 157,000 shares and then buying 150,000 ditm calls doesn’t add up. They are 100x apart. Who does he buy those from and for what price?

 

[saniflash]

Who does he buy those from

most likely OTC from GS, JPM or any other one of those fun folks

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Is it better to do this when SP and LEAP prices are higher, or better to do this when SP and LEAP prices reach a new ATH? My simian mathematical abilities preclude wrapping my head around this.

There's not necessarily a "better", just different levels of risk/reward. I tend to increase my leverage when the SP corrects by 10%, as it just has, and then decrease it again if it quickly recovers.

But if it recovers slowly, then the moves I've made will be worse than sticking with the longer-term deeper ITM calls. Potentially quite a bit worse.

If you increase your leverage at an ATH, though, you're betting that it's going to continue to go up. That's the time I'd be shifting to more stock than options, and getting my cash balance to zero (no margin). That way I can try to catch the falling knife on the next inevitable dip (and my hands are rather bloody from this week).

All that being said, in my retirement account I haven't touched anything this week, and it's doing just fine with almost everything in TSLA shares and requiring a whole lot less work.

 

[JRP3]

I think he is just following Joe's question about certain people's counter view that CO2 is good for plant. But Elon's position is loud and clear that CO2 level, "if we are complacent and do nothing", especially if there is a "major event, such as the melting of the north pole tundra", then we are definitely screwed. He made this very clear in the same interview, same topic, even same answer.

To only focus on Elon's comment about CO2 being good for plant is really trying to pick bone from egg. Nothing there. It's like trying to review SpaceX's government launch contract because Elon smoked a joint. Makes sense in the strict sense, but nonsense anyway.

When your mission is to reduce human output of CO2 you need to use every weapon in your arsenal. That includes debunking the often used and wrong talking about that CO2 is good for plants. I was simply expressing my surprise that someone who has been concerned about human generated CO2 for as long as Elon didn't know that what Rogan was saying was false and didn't correct him. Pointing out inaccuracies is never "nonsense".

 

[agastya]

Selling 157,000 shares and then buying 150,000 ditm calls doesn’t add up. They are 100x apart. Who does he buy those from and for what price?

can't do the exact math of his trade, but if one is bullish AF - they could hold 1 JAN23 200c for the same price as holding ~70 TSLA shares today(rough math)

Lets say TSLA is at 2000 at expiry:
70 shares would be worth: 140k
1 Jan23 200c would have an intrinsic value of 180k.

DITM leaps are as good as holding shares(for a lower cost basis) if bullish.

not advice.

 

[dl003]

Selling 157,000 shares and then buying 150,000 ditm calls doesn’t add up. They are 100x apart. Who does he buy those from and for what price?

I suspect those were the premium. Why would anyone buy calls with insanely odd strikes? Imagine calling your broker and say "I want to buy 50,000 52.38 calls on TSLA." The order will probably get rejected due to fear of breaking their algorithm.
Antonio Gracias net worth is about $100M. He simply cannot afford the premium on 150,000 DITM call options which would cost > $12B.
PS: yes, I would make a good detective.

 

[Brian121]

I am at the point where Elon talking about Bill Gates shorting TSLA. I really don't care whether Bill shorted TSLA or not. But I just want to make it clear. Here is what Elon said:

"I also heard that at one point he get a big short position against Tesla".

This implied that this is in the past. And the short has been covered.

Again, I really don't care what Bill Gates did to TSLA. Just like Bill Gates could laugh at Elon's assertion about Covid. And Elon obviously did not care and was not certain IF Gates actually shorted or not.

Just an observation.

 

[Brian121]

When your mission is to reduce human output of CO2 you need to use every weapon in your arsenal. That includes debunking the often used and wrong talking about that CO2 is good for plants. I was simply expressing my surprise that someone who has been concerned about human generated CO2 for as long as Elon didn't know that what Rogan was saying was false and didn't correct him. Pointing out inaccuracies is never "nonsense".

I understand what you said. But let's all chill out a bit and let Elon have some fun. He has done more than anybody else. Let him relax a bit and not being a fighter all the time. Fighting can be exhausting.

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

I am at the point where Elon talking about Bill Gates shorting TSLA. I really don't care whether Bill shorted TSLA or not. But I just want to make it clear. Here is what Elon said:

"I also heard that at one point he get a big short position against Tesla".

This implied that this is in the past. And the short has been covered.

Again, I really don't care what Bill Gates did to TSLA. Just like Bill Gates could laugh at Elon's assertion about Covid. And Elon obviously did not care and was not certain IF Gates actually shorted or not.

Just an observation.

It wouldn't surprise me. For awhile Bill seemed to have a subtle but odd negative bias towards Tesla. Not sure whether it was to cover his own investments in other technologies and stuff or just anti-Elon.

That said as Elon mentioned, think this is in the past. I think I recall Bill in an interview last year giving credit to Tesla for really pushing the EV path forward.

 

[JRP3]

I understand what you said. But let's all chill out a bit and let Elon have some fun. He has done more than anybody else. Let him relax a bit and not being a fighter all the time. Fighting can be exhausting.

I don't think Elon read or was affected by my comment. If he did I hope he'd be grateful for the additional information.

 

[agastya]

What alt-right impulses has he bet the company on?

Think your reaction here is beyond extreme. Just as there is an alt-right, I would argue there is an equally dangerous alt-left that prides itself on severe public shaming and outrage for someone saying even anything they slightly disagree with.

One can agree with some of the things Elon says all the time,
the same person can agree with all of the things Elon says, some of the times.
but it is very rare that you will find a person who will agree with all of the things Elon says, all of the times.

It's called being human and having your own opinions - there will always be a yin to the yang. My biggest takeaway from these recent interactions with Clubouse, Munro, and now Rogan is that Elon is in excellent mood, and not stressed about achieving the targets they have set for themselves across the companies. You will see the occasional ramp is hard, starlink integration is complex and expensive - but the underlying currents of his thoughts indicate he is more than ready to take these challenges on and win like he has done.

Read something on twitter y'day which I think summed up Elon the best way possible. It's funny how he ruffles feathers on both sides of the spectrum.
https://twitter.com/benedictevans/status/1358760338724974594

 

[Nocturnal]

Whoever bought the $800 march puts I sold a few weeks back is going to kick themselves for not exercising.

Summary of that short seller TSLA twitter thread:

1. Lie to self by believing you're much smarter than you are
2. Short TSLA
3. Tell everyone you shorted TSLA and make up some dumb story on why this is smart
4. Wait a little bit
5. Get margin called

Same thing that's been happening for years.

You also forgot "get a raging every time some person dies horribly anywhere near a Tesla". That's why I hate TSLAQ. Garbage people.

 

[dww12]

I suspect those were the premium. Why would anyone buy calls with insanely odd strikes? Imagine calling your broker and say "I want to buy 50,000 52.38 calls on TSLA." The order will probably get rejected due to fear of breaking their algorithm.
Antonio Gracias net worth is about $100M. He simply cannot afford the premium on 150,000 DITM call options which would cost > $12B.
PS: yes, I would make a good detective.

Ok, if that was the premium paid and not the strike, then bullish AF, AF. And that was the math I was getting that made no sense.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Are they really going to keep pinning this at $800 for the next 3.5 hours?

 

[asburgers]

Ok, if that was the premium paid and not the strike, then bullish AF, AF. And that was the math I was getting that made no sense.

The problem is that there is nothing out there for that time frame with those premiums. ie. Jun17'22 1725C are trading around $98.

Possible conclusion. Mr G YOLO'd on Jun19'21 1100C instead.

 

[mejojo]

Gary drew a line in the sand saying he would sell $TSLA if it bought Bitcoin. It did and he sold.

I suppose you could say good for him for sticking to his guns, but the BTC purchase represented only about 0.18% of Tesla's market cap -- hardly a basis to sell shares from a strictly dollars and cents perspective even if you think it is a terrible use of cash.

That bitcoin conversion that has seemed to have increased about a half billion $.

 

[dww12]

Ok, if that was the premium paid and not the strike, then bullish AF, AF. And that was the math I was getting that made no sense.

Still not enough $$.
157,000 x 830 = $129m
150,000x100x60= $900m