Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Karma's a b!t@h, and when it hits Gordo, we're all going to sit back with popcorn and watch the show. Until then . . . buy and HODL!

Karma hit him years ago. That's why he no longer works for a real investment firm, but instead has a fake office that gives him the image of being a real company.

 

[asburgers]

Uh, power is back on in Austin. This story is 99.44% FUD.

Best thing Tesla Energy could do is provide Megapack backups for Samsung, just like Tesla did for themselves at Kato Road (pilot plant for 4680 cell production). Yes, Roadrunner has bty backup.

Cheers!

The way I think about it. They were able to meet target last year being down for 6 weeks on their only factory. They can handle 2 weeks this year with an extra factory in service + 2 upcoming later this year.

 

[goinfraftw]

Karma hit him years ago. That's why he no longer works for a real investment firm, but instead has a fake office that gives him the image of being a real company.

Tbh, it is how Amazon started too. Apple was in a garage.

Personally, I think the lesson is to do the due diligence and not to be on the wrong side of (good) history and be doing the same thing.

 

[Krugerrand]

Are you suggesting that, at the time the SR Model Y was removed as an option from the configurator, Tesla was NOT aware of the chip shortage (assuming that is the reason for the Fremont production line shutdown)?

I’m not making any assumptions, that’s the point. I’m only accepting facts and patiently waiting for additional ones to come to light, so I can to do absolutely nothing about it regardless.

Tesla is pausing production of the 3 line in Fremont for a short period of time - not an unusual occurrence on the face of it. It’s not important why and it’s even less important for us to wildly speculate why, getting ourselves in a panicked tither.

Might this cause some short term impact to the bottom line and Q1 results? Pretty good odds of that so bet accordingly if you’re a betting person.

Not sure why you'd get defensive on this. I never claimed Elon lied, it simply might not have been the only reason, and the timing matches my suggestion.

Not sure why you’d think my reasonable, sensible and logical post is defensive.

And no that’s not what you were suggesting or you’d have stated it as such, but we can go with it.

 

[2daMoon]

Karma hit him years ago. That's why he no longer works for a real investment firm, but instead has a fake office that gives him the image of being a real company.

Some day maybe we can learn who pays to keep his (dim) lights on. Then, his bent logic will probably make more sense.

My suspicions are the initials of those funding El Gordo will start with the letters BIGOIL and/or LEGACYAUTO.

 

[Krugerrand]

They did at some point before they sent the production workers their notices that they won't be needed for a couple of weeks. Reasonably, the management might have been aware of this situation sometime last week, before the time when the SR Model Y was pulled from the configurator.

You can't argue that Elon plays 4D chess and anticipates everything, but at the same time expect the management had no advanced knowledge that they will be hit by this chip shortage. Do you think Elon found out about it last night on Twitter?

For the sake of all that is good please stop ASSUMING the shutdown is because of a chip shortage. There is no evidence of that.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Tesla Shares Lower Amid Report of Idled Model 3 Production -- Market Talk
10:31 AM ET 2/25/2021
1131 ET - Tesla dips following a report that it’s idling some production at its Fremont, Calif. plant. Bloomberg says a production line for the company’s Model 3 sedan would be down for two weeks, starting Feb. 22. Tesla Chief Financial Officer Zach Kirkhorn said last month that a global semiconductor shortage and port capacity issues could impact the company temporarily. Tesla shares off 4%

 

[StealthP3D]

You can't argue that Elon plays 4D chess and anticipates everything, but at the same time expect the management had no advanced knowledge that they will be hit by this chip shortage.

I haven't even been following this that closely but my understanding is that the shutdown of the Texas chip supply due to winter weather (pull it together Texas) is a very separate issue from the overall chip shortage.

How could Tesla know the winter weather would result in a disruption to their contracted chip supply before Samsung notified them of the problem? That's assuming the shut down is due to chip supply, of course.

I'm always surprised how many armchair quarterbacks Tesla has. With all this wisdom at their disposal, it's surprisingly Tesla is not more successful.

/s

 

[Artful Dodger]

The way I think about it. They were able to meet target last year being down for 6 weeks on their only factory. They can handle 2 weeks this year with an extra factory in service + 2 upcoming later this year.

The aux. "tent" line only produces about 2K Models 3 per week. The main line inside the factory does about 5k wk. Likely the main line is still running, and the tent is having it's infrastructure upgraded (after which time it'll be MOAR productive).

Such a nothingburger, but that's all shortzes got with such a wealthy and well-run business.

Cheers!

 

[SOULPEDL]

There is a general shortage for a number of reasons. It's unclear if this is having any impact on Tesla.

Supposedly the Samsung chip factory in Texas ran into problems during the storm and had/have some problems to get back to full production. I have no idea what, if anything, Tesla is getting from this factory but presumably something.

While most of the rest of the car industry has had problems for months it seems like Teslas happened right when the storm hit which gives some credibility to the Texas chip factory being the problem.

Nice summary, thanks. Could be a chip problem, but little to go on still.
I've never heard Tesla announce a shutdown in advance. So a sudden shutdown, also normal. Sending people home, wouldn't you during a shutdown?

After some reading... from Electrec (from Jan 2021).

"In 2019, Tesla finally unveiled the chip as part of its Hardware 3.0 (HW 3.0) self-driving computer."​

And further down...

"When launching the new chip, CEO Elon Musk announced that Tesla is already working on the next generation of the chip, and they expect it to be three times better than the new chip and roughly two years from production. ​

That's about now (2019+2). So maybe it's the new 5 nm process. (Are we down to 5 already? Walking by a litho machine that precise can cause defects from vibrations and why these factories are on vibration dampers. Story 25 yrs ago was that they were installed bc the trucks on streets caused alignment problems. Imagine 5 nm tech! I just can't see it.)

 

[AudubonB]

Whether they fall from the sky or not, I have no intention today or at any other time of finding out what red kibbles taste like.

 

[Singuy]

Tesla Shares Lower Amid Report of Idled Model 3 Production -- Market Talk
10:31 AM ET 2/25/2021
1131 ET - Tesla dips following a report that it’s idling some production at its Fremont, Calif. plant. Bloomberg says a production line for the company’s Model 3 sedan would be down for two weeks, starting Feb. 22. Tesla Chief Financial Officer Zach Kirkhorn said last month that a global semiconductor shortage and port capacity issues could impact the company temporarily. Tesla shares off 4%

There are two separate type of chip shortages. The one Zach was referring are ones the industry uses. The Samsung fab shortage is FSD computer only and was not guided for because no one can predict the weather.

 

[Krugerrand]

Whether they fall from the sky or not, I have no intention today or at any other time of finding out what red kibbles taste like.

You’ve just not been in the right situation yet.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Assuming this shut down does have a significant impact on Tesla’s sales/financials, what is stopping them from selling their BTC and booking the profit in Q1 to compensate for it? Anyone who argues that this is a one time profit would have to concede that the chip shortage is also a one time event.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

in for 10 more @$700....where else would i rather put my declining US $

 

[Singuy]

Assuming this shut down does have a significant impact on Tesla’s sales/financials, what is stopping them from selling their BTC and booking the profit in Q1 to compensate for it? Anyone who argues that this is a one time profit would have to concede that the chip shortage is also a one time event.

Short term profits doesn't matter and it's better to see Tesla maneuver out of a bind without resorting to shenanigans to book a profit.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Subtle reminder from Gordo 'genius':

View attachment 639891

You can win big just betting against whatever Gordo says. When the TSLA FUD looks fishy - Buy!
I'm going with "The shutdown was planned so production can meet the continuing rise in demand for Tesla products."
At least that's what I think he signalled, lol.

 

[Beltsbear]

A lot of people fail to see the position Tesla is in. If they have a shortage of a MY/M3 part, they can use the remaining supply to build just the high end cars. While cost per car may go up due to the lower quantity, they will CERTAINLY make a profit on them. So Model Y will get the pick of the litter, and Model 3 Performance will get anything it needs as well. The $38k cars will suffer. Unlike other auto makers, Tesla has things they can do to the line when it is down to improve it and space efficiency as well.

 

[mekberg]

Demand is fine and will probably be boosted later this summer with a renewal of the EV tax credit in some form or another.

The only thing I care about is production CAGR. That is directly linked to construction of new factories and as we can see Tesla is killing it in that department.

Everything else is hand wringing for no reason. Tesla is not in a dangerous cash position.

 

[SOULPEDL]

in for 10 more @$700....where else would i rather put my declining US $

50 more at 701.
But getting low on cash... what is that couch trick?