Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

People who say valuation has gotten out of control as rates remained low forgot TSLA nearly quadrupled in 5 months BEFORE COVID hit.

 

[Krugerrand]

Ha see this is where my plan is so brilliant.
I get a 10percent employee discount on stuff.

Lots of carabiner and rope and ...other stuff.

In other words party is still on...at your place.

The fact you think a lousy 10% discount is a big deal suggests you don’t have nearly enough TSLA stock to get past my first level of hell defenses.

 

[asburgers]

This notion - that nothing has fundamentally changed with the company but the macro economic factors are pushing us down, is something I've been thinking about for more than a year (since this Covid thing started). Doesn't mean I was right then or now, but I also continue to see the bias in the shares as down over up.

I've also seen this dynamic - a good company with no changes in fundamentals - have their shares driven down back in 2008 or 09. I found a great company paying a nearly guaranteed dividend that was worth $80/share that was on sale for $40/share. Bought me a 11% dividend that continued expanding every quarter I owned the company.

Or more specifically - even back at 700 - I was expecting 600 before 800 and that is still true (and not nearly as big of a prediction today ).

I'm also starting to think 500 before 800 with low 400s on the table. Low 400s was where we were when the S&P announcement was made. We traded from there up to 700 awfully fast. So one view on this downward move is its a retracement to go fill in that move from low 400s to high 600s that went by so fast.


And more broadly for anybody that is looking to their TSLA holding to provide income (via sales or options), be sure you're positioned for the rest of a 50% move down (low 400s from upper 800s). I've felt like at least one of these over the next decade was inevitable. I didn't really consider the start of 2021 to be one of these, but I also didn't think that it couldn't happen.

I would sure like to be wrong and see the shares start moving back up.

This macro movement is complete bull in my opinion. Yields have been higher previously in a healthy economy and a re-opening economy is good for Tesla. Even a moderately inflating economy is good.

 

[Singuy]

This macro movement is complete in my opinion. Yields have been higher previously in a healthy economy and a re-opening economy is good for Tesla. Even a moderately inflating economy is good.

Right? Stock is crashing as of rates became 5% or something. People are expecting rates to recover to pre-Covid levels. IMO it's more of an issue if rates doesn't recover to pre-covid levels(meaning the expected boom in economy as things open up is fake news and the economy is actually a lot weaker than the market suggest).

 

[jschwefel]

What a ride the last few weeks have been! I'm thinking about changing my account passwords so my wife can't see how much money we've lost.

 

[vikings123]

I bought a 1/22 400 call when we were at 680 for $330.
Been selling weekly covered calls at the highest daily resistance level for $6-7. First it was 750, then 730. Next week its 715.
I have no problem selling my LEAP to close out a weekly because I will win anyway. If it was my core shares, I would pick a much higher strike.
But yes, I can roll the weeklies up and/or out quite easily with Portfolio Margin.

Just curious why you would need the LEAP for this strategy. You could just simply sell those weekly calls against the long shares in your account correct? What am I missing?

 

[ZsoZso]

OK, barchart is on some drugs, I wish their dream was true, but....

 

[2daMoon]

Right? Stock is crashing as of rates became 5% or something. People are expecting rates to recover to pre-Covid levels. IMO it's more of an issue if rates doesn't recover to pre-covid levels(meaning the expected boom in economy as things open up is fake news and the economy is actually a lot weaker than the market suggest).

Essentially, I take this to support how the faith people are putting into the distribution of the vaccine is providing evidence of a broad placebo effect upon how they consider the bigger picture.

Not saying the vaccine is a placebo, only that the tremendous faith in the positive effect of it as being both instantaneous and universal is a placebo effect. The result of this emotional aspect results in a rush back into some investments as if everything is already "back to normal" when that transition will only be achieved over time, rather than overnight. (not to say that there is no benefit in positive thinking)

We are trained to expect instant gratification by the "programming" we've been subjected to over generations of feeding upon advertisement and promotion of goods and services. ("we" being the general populous) This expectation has been instilled into the collective psyche by repetition via successful transactions in common things like consumer shopping. This expectation of instant gratification is realized often enough to establish it as being a somewhat valid baseline to many folks. They make their business decisions by measuring to some degree against this benchmark. Hence, some explanation for part of the current silliness we are seeing.

People, are a problem. Particularly when their lizard brains overrule their more rational grey matter parts.

 

[Singuy]

Essentially, I take this to support how the faith people are putting into the distribution of the vaccine is providing evidence of a broad placebo effect upon how they consider the bigger picture.

Not saying the vaccine is a placebo, only that the tremendous faith in the positive effect of it as being both instantaneous and universal is a placebo effect. The result of this emotional aspect results in a rush back into some investments as if everything is already "back to normal" when that transition will only be achieved over time, rather than overnight. (not to say that there is no benefit in positive thinking)

We are trained to expect instant gratification by the "programming" we've been subjected to over generations of feeding upon advertisement and promotion of goods and services. ("we" being the general populous) This expectation has been instilled into the collective psyche by repetition via successful transactions in common things like consumer shopping. This expectation of instant gratification is realized often enough to establish it as being a somewhat valid baseline to many folks. They make their business decisions by measuring to some degree against this benchmark. Hence, some explanation for part of the current silliness we are seeing.

People, are a problem. Particularly when their lizard brains overrule their more rational grey matter parts.

It's fine to dump bonds on forward looking sentiment, but the yield is not even at pre-covid levels so what is the big deal? They say "well now there's an alternative"..in what way? If everyone shifts back to bonds then it'll drop. If you buy bonds today then the value of your bond may drop if rates go up. Treasury bonds have been a crap alternative for the past 2 decades and all of a sudden it's an alternative at current yield rates? LoL.

 

[asburgers]

Just curious why you would need the LEAP for this strategy. You could just simply sell those weekly calls against the long shares in your account correct? What am I missing?

Lower capital outlay. Synthetic covered call aka Poor Man's Covered Call. Can be very effective.

 

[RobStark]

Does everyone REALLY think that at the flip of a switch we all go back to the life before covid? Laughable.

I will kill my instacart/prime membership as soon as the pandemic is over.

Can't wait to pick my own fruit.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Gotta love losing 5% every day.

Don’t be jealous of these $883 bags I’m holding

I share your pain.
A friend bought at $850.
He sold today at $650.
He’s planning to rebuy in 2 weeks at $500

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I share your pain.
A friend bought at $850.
He sold today at $650.
He’s planning to rebuy in 2 weeks at $500

It may pay off for him......or that might be an excruciatingly painful mistake. I would actually be more stressed about it randomly shooting 10% higher one day next week and then having to chase it over it dropping into the 500's.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Thu, Mar 04, 2021: (Pre+Main Session Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Mugged by with Macros"

Pre-Market:

Pre-Market Volume: 1,031,313
Pre-Market High: $661.99
Pre-Market Low: $636.00
Consolidated Last Sale: $660.89 +7.69 (+1.18%)​

Main Session:

Traded: $40,454,855,151.51 ($40.45B)
Volume: 64,599,424
VWAP: $626.24

Close: $621.44 / VWAP: 99.23%
TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $710 (-$10 from Wed)​

TSLA S&P 500 Weight: 1.53526% (Mar 03)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / FB $596.492B / $733.674B = 81.30%
NB: Yahoo has updated Mkt Cap re 10-K shares (Feb 10, 2021)

CEO Comp. Status: (est'd Mkt Cap including 10-K (Feb 01) shares)

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $719.80B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $567.53B

Mkt Cap for 10th tranche ($550B) likely achieved Tue, Feb 23, 2021
Mkt Cap for 9th tranche ($500B) likely achieved Wed, Feb 03, 2021
Mkt Cap for 8th tranche ($450B) likely achieved Tue, Jan 19, 2021
Nota Bene: Operational milestones req'd (chart at link).
​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 47.2% (47th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 38.3% (44th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt ratio was 1.69% of Short Volume (55th Percentile Rank Exempt)​

QOTD: @capster "Patience is (still) a superpower"

Comment: "Buy'n'hold is a game best played cold"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Work? I thought you all were retired multi-millionaires around here?

If one retires early, because of an addiction to TSLA, what exactly do you think one would be doing during retirement?!

 

[Navin]

Ok. The fat lady has sung or at least tweeted. Should be over.

 

[elasalle]

Ok. The fat lady has sung or at least tweeted. Should be over. View attachment 642154

Another field of MUD, it will be a DUD

 

[Tyler34]

Another field of MUD, it will be a DUD

More like a field of FUD, amirite guyz?

 

[EVWatcher]

I share your pain.
A friend bought at $850.
He sold today at $650.
He’s planning to rebuy in 2 weeks at $500

Does your friend know what a wash sale is?

 

[OrthoSurg]

I would be a "retired millionaire", and as I am 65, I really should enjoy the fruits of my patience with TSLA since 2012. But sadly, I am emotionally involved with my shares, I just can't let any of them go. And so, I continue to work my business. I guess it will be my children who will be those to reap the good life.

Let them work for their money and let them buy their own TSLA shares with their hard worked money so they know the actual value of those shares