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In 2018, Elon said that Tesla was a dozen or so start ups having little correlation to legacy auto. Comments about my list, please:

Chip design
Supercharger design/build/manage
Motor and drive unit design/build
Insurance design/build
Sales
Autonomy design/build/manage
Factory design/build
Solar roof design/build
Utility energy storage design/build
Residential/commercial energy storage design/build
Auto design/build
Semi design/build
Battery design/build
Vehicle service

Future

HVAC design/build
AI interaction with physical world
EV ships/planes
Fossil fuel site remediation
Battery recycling (Redwood)
Thanks!
Not just utility storage products, also being the utility.

Edit: and solar inverter manufacturer.
Right! thanks! Hey, Mule, should I keep my 16 X or get a new one? Love it, but, O so yesterday.....
 
Elon says it’ll be available sometime in the next couple weeks; once they finish the 8.3 build. It’ll be in the service section of the app and you’ll need to check off on some liability options...then you’ll be able to download the update in your car via the usual update process.

Just my understanding. I could be mistaken.
April 1st will be available in the next "couple weeks" too. :confused:;)
 
1615353899220.png


I am a bit perplexilated over what one would make of unicorns with this image.

If a unicorn was in in the image, it would be the S&P Board. *S&P 500 Inclusion* - who woulda thought the requirements would be met in 2020...
 
My database goes back to May 2015. Today ranks in 2nd place for all-time daily percent gains, close behind Feb 03, 2020

View attachment 643211

But today exceeded the % gains on 2020-03-02 if you include today's After-hrs session, which ended at $689.21 +15.63 (+2.32%) on 1.825M shares traded.

On Feb 3rd, 2020 (chart below) the SP was down -14.00 (-1.79%) After-hrs: (beginning of the Q1 2020 'dip')

View attachment 643212

While I have you here Lars, I recall that you used some of your TSLA assets to make a real-life real-estate dream come true back in May 2020. Can you share any of your experiences and results with us? Especially, how's that dream home?

May I ask, have you gotten back into holding TSLA shares since then? Were you able to participate in any of TSLA's historic run in H2 2020?

Cheers!
March 2020 was a crazy month, even by $TSLA standards...
 
Time to warm this thread up.

TSLA in the doldrums. However, the future is going to be brighter than we can imagine.

Rob Maurer has an estimate of $3.7 T market cap in 2030 here

ARK are due to provide their updated estimate in the next week or so.

James Douma might be sharing his estimate with @DaveT soon. This will likely be super bullish on the robotaxi revenue modelling. He mentioned here for instance that ARK's current model uses a p/e of 14 on FSD currently.

Mine is here:

50 million Tesla owned robotaxis in 2030 * $50k per annum net income per car * 50 p/e ratio
= $125 T market cap in 2030 (TE income should offset COGS for 2030 vehicles)

Nobody is gonna outdo me!
Wrote this yesterday on the Super Bulls thread. Posting here because I am less embarrassed about it today.

It's a complex model. Three variables which I have made mathematical constants - all with a value of 50.

Working on simplification for non Super Bull autists.
 
Funny thing: It turns out that Warren is not the only one doing wild future robotaxi valuations.

James Douma also has wild ideas about Teslas FDS/robotaxi valuation.

TLDR:
0. FSD may not be solvable - we cannot be totally sure - yet.
1. If Waymo and other companies with lidar-driven solutions can solve FSD then so can Tesla. Lidar == Pseudo-lidar.
But the converse is not true: If Tesla can solve FSD using only cameras then it does not follow that Waymo and other lidar-companies can also. (Off course they can in the primitive sense that they can just ignore all lidar input but that has not been their claim or strategy)
2. When Tesla (as is likely) solves FSD they will in the upper bound reach large-country-level wealth. Especially if the solve it first, and use the proceeds to consolidate their position by extreme and rapid scaling.

I don't get the "FSD might be impossible" argument. WAYMO shows it's working within limits today - so with a remote operations center to manually control the car in corner cases (speaking to police controls, handling accident communication etc ... ) isn't WAYMO proove that FSD is already solved?

If so then the ratio of control center intervention per million miles is just a profit margin and scale-out argument - not a general argument against FSD isn't it?
 
In 2018, Elon said that Tesla was a dozen or so start ups having little correlation to legacy auto. Comments about my list, please:

Chip design
Supercharger design/build/manage
Motor and drive unit design/build
Insurance design/build
Sales
Autonomy design/build/manage
Factory design/build
Solar roof design/build
Utility energy storage design/build
Residential/commercial energy storage design/build
Auto design/build
Semi design/build
Battery design/build
Vehicle service

Future

HVAC design/build
AI interaction with physical world
EV ships/planes
Fossil fuel site remediation
Battery recycling (Redwood)
Think you nailed current 'startup' list.

The future: Well...
don't think Elon really likes planes. He seems to be focused on either ground transport or rockets. Maybe to him planes are are weird middle-thing, which will be obsoleted by a) cars in tunnels for distances of 0-300 km, b) hyperloop for distances of 300-1500 km and c) earth-to-earth starship launches doing continental hops.
He did however spend around 5 minutes on a recent Rogan pod explaining how a battery-driven plane could be very fast and energy efficient. So ... maybe.
I just think that he really likes solving big problems and ground transport and space is just ... bigger.
If Tesla and perhaps SpaceX does a collab re. planes I suspect a 20-30 person plane, because that can be done within ~2028-2030 battery tech as self-funded proof-of-concept.
Then quickly moving into 100-400 person envelopes, because that is where the volume is - and also where fossil fuel displaced really will move the needle.
Problem is that SpaceX spaceships earth-to-earth travel would soundly beat those planes.
However, it may be the case that public will be disinclined to accepting a lot of earth-to-earth starhip travelling: They are noise and are perceived to be dangerous. (Perhaps rightfully so: imagine the 2001 terrorist scenario played out with spacehips instead of planes...)
So, space ships may be allowed and popular for continent hopping on dedicated specialized platforms in the range of 20 places on earth (a handful per continent)
That would leave a large market open for quiet, effective, VTOL planes.
Also, being VTOL, that makes it possible to integrate with new dedicated air-strips: Not only can the planes themselves be fast and energy efficient. They could also be allowed to operate within city cores. This would make them extremely attractive, because then you no longer have to add 30-60 minute commute at each end of a current plane travel, but could instead add a few minutes.
(For sure, big corporations would transform their current heli-pads to handle VTOL planes also, making the air-strip commute an elevator ride instead of a car-trip)

I don't think Tesla would go into fossil fuel remediation. An important issue for sure. But Elons contribution is by solving current and future energy and transport. That is a very big thing. He does not also have to clean up the mess made by the fossil industry.
Battery recycling is a given. I think they are doing that already in-house - and are setting that up to scale alongside extreme expansion in battery production. With or without Redwood. Remember, that redwood have to support generic battery recycling which is limited due to being generic. Tesla can solve for specialized batteries, namely their own.

I don't think ship building are in Teslas future. But for sure, selling a kit of motors, batteries and control unit would be. Shipyards are pretty competetive. For sure, Tesla could eek out some innovations here also. But ... there are so many other opportunities were their innovation talents are better spent. Selling motor-battery-control-kits to shipbuilders captures a lot of the value add for electric ships.

I would add house building as a wild card.
When Tesla is ready to announce the widely anticipated HVAC for houses, the have 3 huge building blocks: Solar, Home batteries and HVAC. It makes a lot of sense to include custom sensors (temperature, moisture, etc) as well as house climate control. Now you have 4-5 building blocks of a house. Now, perhaps you can make innovation re. concrete or bricks (recall boring bricks). We know that Tesla has experience in glass: witness Tesla glass roofs and Semi and Cyber truck hardened glass.
Then it is getting to a point where you have most of what constitutes a house. From a vertical integration standpoint, it probably makes sense to just build the house fully, and do fast iteration and improvement, instead of spending a lot of time dealing with (and waiting for) sub-contractors not used to acting at the speed of Tesla/the speed of thought.
Tesla factory team is also beginning to accumulate a lot of experience handling the whole of planning and logistics of large construction projects.
House building is a big mouthful though. I would be surprised if they enter that space before 2030. But when (if) they do, I predict building whole neighborhoods or mini cities in one go because, again, being Tesla, scale is just very important.
 
I don't get the "FSD might be impossible" argument. WAYMO shows it's working within limits today - so with a remote operations center to manually control the car in corner cases (speaking to police controls, handling accident communication etc ... ) isn't WAYMO proove that FSD is already solved?

If so then the ratio of control center intervention per million miles is just a profit margin and scale-out argument - not a general argument against FSD isn't it?

Well WAYMO does all the hard things people think only a human being can do with HD maps, meaning a human being has done them beforehand.
So if you think a robot can never actually *understand* what it sees, WAYMO doesn't prove otherwise.
 
In 2018, Elon said that Tesla was a dozen or so start ups having little correlation to legacy auto. Comments about my list, please:

Chip design
Supercharger design/build/manage
Motor and drive unit design/build
Insurance design/build
Sales
Autonomy design/build/manage
Factory design/build
Solar roof design/build
Utility energy storage design/build
Residential/commercial energy storage design/build
Auto design/build
Semi design/build
Battery design/build
Vehicle service

Future

HVAC design/build
AI interaction with physical world
EV ships/planes
Fossil fuel site remediation
Battery recycling (Redwood)
I think Tesla will make a version of the semi that is an RV. I guess any 3rd party could make a boujee/ opulent trailer ....Tesla will have the FSD cab! Maybe Tesla has to make an iPad controller for destinations and controlling the settings from the waterbed 😂
 
Short interest decreased from the period 02/12/2021 (share price $811) to 02/26/2021 (share price $675).
The short amount also decreased in this period.
  • Shares shorted from 47.690.000,00 to 44.000.000,00
  • Float shorted from 6,20% to 5,72%
  • Amount shorted from $38.676.590.000,00 to $29.700.000.000,00
During this period and the falling of the share price the shorts were able to reduce their exposure a bit.

1615370565124.png
 
Short interest decreased from the period 02/12/2021 (share price $811) to 02/26/2021 (share price $675).
The short amount also decreased in this period.
  • Shares shorted from 47.690.000,00 to 44.000.000,00
  • Float shorted from 6,20% to 5,72%
  • Amount shorted from $38.676.590.000,00 to $29.700.000.000,00
During this period and the falling of the share price the shorts were able to reduce their exposure a bit.

View attachment 643260
My read is that this means that, despite all their FUD and BS, shorts are low conviction about their TSLA thesis. If they really believed their own BS, you wouldn’t see all this closing out of short positions. And with reduced short positions, the FUD lets up as well.