Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[gabeincal]

Fremont Flyover Mar 12, 2021

• Gigapresses have no visible damage from the fire though not operational on the video. New overhead crane system seems to be installed now

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

So if they only rolled to 1000 more specific people, and next update isn't till April, does that mean they're not doing the "button to download it if you want it" thing in roughly another week from now?

The current thinking from the superfans, as near as I can tell, is:

8.2 => Added 1000 more people or whatever
8.3 => Maybe next week, adding 10k+ or whatever (the button!), 1000s of fixes perhaps, not a "significant change"
9.0 => April sometime, maybe, Tesla PureVision, the significant change referenced in Elon's tweet.

 

[Buckminster]

Its happening!

View attachment 643958

Elon said "This is the way"

Explanation of joke for non retards and boomers:
1) "This is the way" has recently been popularised by the Disney show "The Mandalorian"
2) WSB crowd use it a lot

Explaining your not very funny joke immediately renders the joke hilarious. I will do it more.
This is the way.

 

[Buckminster]

The no radar thing is pretty weird to me too- at the time HW2 radar was introduced they made a huge deal out of its ability to bounce under cars to "see" things it was physically impossible for the cameras to see- not sure how even perfectly solved vision replaces that.

I think they will add it back in eventually. Keeping things simple to start with.

 

[dhanson865]

Look at the Facts, Ford Mustang is a broken growth story, according to this article, Mustang sales in US peaked in 2000 with 173K units, it was 122K in 2015 and only 72K in 2019. So the question is, can they sell enough Mach-E to counter their losses in ICE mustang sales ? The answer appears NO!
Based on this article their January sales are down ~20% from 2019 to 2021 (no data for 2020). And if you look at Europe or China the Mach-E is a complete failure with not a single unit sold the whole year! They are also losing money on every unit if you do not count the regulatory credit sales, which are just a one-time item anyway.

-- Am I doing this right, Gordo ?

Well I'm no gordon johson but it looks like to me in that article the peak year was 1966.

So maybe that portion should be something about Mustang sales peaking over 50 years ago, clearly a sign that the brand name of Ford and Mustang no longer has value in this century. They were strong in the1900s but competition has their number and they'll be putting out new cars next year.

as a style point I think Gordo always names Tesla as a singular and the competition is the "they" so he can mention multiple possibilities and not be pinned to any single point of comparison. So you should reserve "they" for Ford's competition if you are copying his style.

 

[mongo]

Yup, that's how hard Wall St. thinks about *sugar*. According to those geniuses, TSLA will be "worth" it's ATH SP on Oct 12, 2021 (and $1,000 per share by year-end, 2021):

View attachment 643970

Cheers!

Yeah, that's silly. With Tesla projecting 50% growth YoY, a logarithmic Y axis is more appropriate:
$2k by EoY (at least with my poorly drawn line)...

 

[Tslynk67]

How exactly are they able to tell you aren't paying attention? Are they watching you through the cabin camera?

There're a lot of these folks post their antics on social media, plus I daresay Tesla can deduce a lot from the car's logs

 

[Johann Koeber]

What would happen if you put a piece of duct tape over the cabin camera? I can imagine this becoming a privacy issue if you aren't allowed to cover the camera or your FSD access gets revoked.

We are entering a new era.

I am buying a piece of equipment which I may only use if I let it monitor my behavior and if it agrees with my actions.
If it does not agree, it will not function.
If I do not want to be monitored, it will not function.

As cars are getting more 'intelligent' I begin to feel less important. Am I really on the wheel? A truly intelligent car would make sure not to make me feel inferior.

There is a big difference between the car warning me about a danger or revoking functions that I have paid for. Was I informed of this behavior of the software before I purchased? Can it be refunded, if the conditions are changed by the seller of the equipment?

 

[Johann Koeber]

I have just checked my order for Model S in Germany.

Plaid Model S is scheduled for delivery in November 2021
Plaid+ End 2021; price was raised 10.000 Euro since I ordered.

If there were problems with the design or manufacturing, Tesla would have changed the date, as they did in the US.

It seems the number of MS Plaid+ allocated for Europe have not sold out.

Roadster has still no date, but Founder Edition (1,000) is still available. Anyone want to bite?

 

[15Peter20]

DUDE! I just thought of IT! I mean the big "IT."
Impartial car reviews....
I can do it. I can.
Or at least I have the concept.
And I am going to "Share" it here in case someone wants to become famous on YouTube...and remember I expect a royalty for whatever side you choose to do. And there are TWO sides. You have to choose one, and can only ever do one for the life of your youtube channel.
Ready?

Create a channel where you only provide either everything right or wrong with the vehicle you "review." Don't lie, just discuss "ONLY" what is wrong with every car you review. Leave it to the other guy to talk about all the pluses. Never mention a good thing about ANY vehicle.
Or take the other channel, and never give an inkling that cars are anything but perfect.

"Today we are going to discuss Tesla model 3...
It's ugly
It's breath stinks. (even though it does not breathe)
It goes too fast.
It is too quiet.

But be factual and honest..but NOTHING but the bad.
Never even say It is uglier than a Ford or chevy or whatever other car because that is saying something nice about another car. You can say it is uglier than yourself or the southern end of a in heat northbound bulldog.

People would actually watch the video to get the facts when they hear something about a car they like being mentioned as having battery issues. Or if they already hate the car and want to hear more.

Unfortunately I think you’d end up with something like the original Top Gear.

Not enough opinionated bluster for most audiences.

 

[15Peter20]

We are entering a new era.

I am buying a piece of equipment which I may only use if I let it monitor my behavior and if it agrees with my actions.
If it does not agree, it will not function.
If I do not want to be monitored, it will not function.

As cars are getting more 'intelligent' I begin to feel less important. Am I really on the wheel? A truly intelligent car would make sure not to make me feel inferior.

There is a big difference between the car warning me about a danger or revoking functions that I have paid for. Was I informed of this behavior of the software before I purchased? Can it be refunded, if the conditions are changed by the seller of the equipment?

These are beta testers. Tesla have to be certain the system is not being abused at this stage.

Once FSD is widespread this shouldn’t be necessary, since the amount of real world data on FSD will absolutely rocket and the significance of any single incident that can be blamed on FSD will diminish.

 

[CLK350]

I thought about that ... But financial laws are stupid. You need a lot of expensive paper to show "you know what you do" (even if you don't .. paying for your papers is enough)..
in 2020 i had a performance of +2500% due to teslas rise. Currently i am at +20% YTD (while tesla is at the price of 1.1. ). I want to share that but i can't.
As soon as a third party can invest/uninvest dynamically you get into compliance-hell.
If everyone just throws money into a pot that gets "managed" then it is a bit simpler - but if you allow people to join/leave afterwards (instead of just recieving dividends) then .. compliance hell again.

In Germany it is even critical to talk about that in the wrong way.. and no .. a "not an advisor. do your own dd" is not enough.... Even to give some recommendation to friends is a very fine line and you may be liable for their losses....

OT (brain dump under the influence)

Yep - agreed, some of our laws and regulations are a royal pain in .. - except for lawyers, accountants, politicians and status quo & paper lovers. I'm also sure they see the creative and artsy, even useful/ necessary side of their work all the same. Well, after another couple of drinks (appropriately from my *Ampere* wine stash) my neurons, thinking from first principles, thought the following.

I do enjoy the feeling of being rewarded by sizeable % gains just for being right about Tesla AND doing the right thing the right HODLING way (after some down swings to amuse w/ some contrasting backdrop) => the rush from trading/ gambling. But is it the best/ only way to enjoy my time? Playing golf (nah, I don't do golf), ballroom dancing (nah, but I wish), tennis and other things I do do, noodling or just hanging around with other musicians, techies, poets and artists, ..having parties rank just as high in the enjoyment list.

So what's the purpose of moving around money from some accounts into TSLA accounts? Besides feeling good helping to do the right thing - to get more money at some later date, to spend then for some enjoyable /satisfying experience. Do I really "need" that feeling of ownership/ control for moneys that I will eventually bequeath to other persons surviving me, or some organization that will dispense/ reinvest later?

So why not create a Church or Non Profit Foundation of X, yes could be interpreted as a different cross LOL - investing mostly in TSLA or whatever the necessary charter requires, maybe "TBD beneficial" enterprises - would have its tax sheltered places (aka playgrounds uh its "places of worship", or retreats, schools, farms, etc). Only possible problem would be issues ( though creating a 501.c3 is quite easy paperwork, and tax reporting is non existent, no taxes to pay). But yes there is the usual people organization/ management issues (tho some groups did alright, like the Amana, or Moravians, at least for a while).

Well, some folks have figured out harder problems. Like busting our archaic illogical wasteful and ecolo nightmarish ICE and Fossil Fuels FUDsters world, or our frozen in time politics greasy palms space tech.

Break time for now - Delamain is my favorite gold ;D - It's 5 AM, time for a nap and then getting ready for a local trip, rumbling my faithful old (but mileage wise young) Benz (yeah an ICE but it's a 2008 edition when Mercedes saved Tesla's skin with a $50M investment and an EV powertrain order for their B-class EV's of the time).

Clara the Benz visiting its birth place, mother luxe stealership ;-D

PS. Why not a Tesla? Well -for now- I don't really need a car, living in NYC it spends 95% of its time in a sheltered garage.

 

[Cobbler]

Is my assumption correct:
With the surround camera BEV NN-rewrite (Birds Eye View using all camera feeds), Tesla has solved vision and made LIDAR & HD mapping obsolete?

So real world can be replicated in vector space.



However this doesn't necessarily mean L5 FSD is reached. The logic/decision making (manual code or based on NN) on how to react to the environment still needs a lot of debugging?
Or will this be solved using Dojo through end-to-end learning? (Training on steering wheel/accelerator input vs vector objects)

 

[hobbes]

How exactly are they able to tell you aren't paying attention? Are they watching you through the cabin camera?

Cabin camera use confirmed:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1370525365358243842

 

[22522]

Cabin camera use confirmed:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1370525365358243842

I wonder if they care about good line discipline. I prioritize space/padding to solid objects over perfect line obedience. Will that disqualify me?

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

The no radar thing is pretty weird to me too- at the time HW2 radar was introduced they made a huge deal out of its ability to bounce under cars to "see" things it was physically impossible for the cameras to see- not sure how even perfectly solved vision replaces that.

It does seem a little strange, but perhaps its a cost thing. I have no idea how much radar stuff costs but these days I don't think any sensor gets cheaper than a camera. Tesla may want ALL their cars to be capable of FSD, and that might include a future $25k model 2. Removing radar entirely might nudge the cost down a bit, not just component cost, but the wiring complexity and logistics of production.
Anything tesla can do to make their EVs more affordable is fine by me.

 

[lascavarian]

Cabin camera use confirmed:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1370525365358243842

Interesting. I would consider it possible that the cabin camera is distinct from Birdseye View. Required (for beta) now but a separate NN that can be switched on or off depending if there is driver monitoring required (future L5 mode).

Later, in the Tesla Network, it can perform different tasks.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yeah, that's silly. With Tesla projecting 50% growth YoY, a logarithmic Y axis is more appropriate:
$2k by EoY (at least with my poorly drawn line)...
View attachment 644030

Your T/A represents a central estimate of value. The T/A in question puts in the floor for value (SP support), two very separate things.

Finally, Tesla said their auto production would grow at 50%+ per year, not their SP.

It's Wall St. that is dependant on wiggle analysis: (wouldn't know a differential equation if it kicked them in the ***s)

Cheers!

 

[lascavarian]

It does seem a little strange, but perhaps its a cost thing. I have no idea how much radar stuff costs but these days I don't think any sensor gets cheaper than a camera. Tesla may want ALL their cars to be capable of FSD, and that might include a future $25k model 2. Removing radar entirely might nudge the cost down a bit, not just component cost, but the wiring complexity and logistics of production.
Anything tesla can do to make their EVs more affordable is fine by me.

FSD will be important in trucks. StarLink will be important in trucks. RF noise is not great for StarLink reception. I would speculate that radar and StarLink may not play well together, just speculation. Note that StarLink has applied for mobile use.

Additionally, radar utility may drop off as the number of vehicles using it rises, RF interference. If vision can be worked to reduce the utility of radar then all the better.

 

[CorneliusXX]

So if they only rolled to 1000 more specific people, and next update isn't till April, does that mean they're not doing the "button to download it if you want it" thing in roughly another week from now?


The no radar thing is pretty weird to me too- at the time HW2 radar was introduced they made a huge deal out of its ability to bounce under cars to "see" things it was physically impossible for the cameras to see- not sure how even perfectly solved vision replaces that.

On the bright side that they're monitoring closely enough to revoke for bad drivers is excellent though I wonder how automated the process is as it'll get difficult to do that at scale otherwise.

Agree with the point on radar. Unless vision is now so good that it has rendered radar as unnecessary - but as a simple human and not an advanced AI I find it difficult to accept that the ability to see through bad weather and reflections under vehicles holds no benefit.