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This is what I posted on the Tesla shorts/writers seekingalpha.com. This article is a bull from Elazar Advisor, LLC.

Tesla's RoboTaxi Future Upside (NASDAQ:TSLA)


"For all the Tesla shorts and skeptics. Longs enjoy the video

Awesome Tesla FSD beta 8.2 during night time on Chestnut St


The author tweets: “I seriously *sugar* my pants when I saw it do this without any interventions! I couldn’t believe it. Jaw on the floor.”

Watch this in larger screen and it repeats itself:


Make sure you watch it several times and read all the tweets

Enjoy. There will be beta 8.3 and version 9 coming."

By the way, what city and state is the very busy Chestnut St ?
 

...A whole network of cameras, radar, and lidar sensors help to eliminate blind spots and to provide a 270 degree field of vision. Considering that the car can reach speeds of 75 miles per hour, all those sensors are pretty important. Safety also includes an airbag system on all four seats. The car’s 133 kWh battery provides for 16 hours of use, making this a prime candidate for fleets and ride-hailing services....

Hmm, sounds more expensive than a robo-Model 3 or Y or $25k world car. But it kinda resembles Cinderella's coach, so maybe it will be a Cinderella story.

Zoox-Amazons-Self-Driving-Taxi-9.jpg

pumpkin-carriage-isolated-white-background-31329545.jpg
I have to see its demo pickup 4 customers on the same Chestnut St as done by Whole Mars Catalog to believe its capacity.
 
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Oh, yes, the Hummer EV. This fall. OK.

All 1000 of them? Or do you expect more? As in a lot more?

I can guarantee they were not priming the market for the Hummer EV or the Cadillac EV (which is a year and a half out by their own admission) because that's not how you market to sell more Hummer EV's and Cadillac EV's - they don't want to sell more because their ICE vehicles have sweet margins but they would be lucky to make a single dollar per Hummer or Cadillac EV, high prices aside and they know they can't sell enough to make a difference anyway. It would be dumb to advertise for the Hummer EV and Caddy EV at this point in time. Superbowl ads are not cheap and they need revenue to show for their expenditures.

I do agree, part of the ad was brand-building. Yes. They don't want their ad to help Ford just as much as it helps GM. They also need to tread carefully around EV's and avoid offending EV enthusiasts and environmentalists. This ad sliced their difficult pie perfectly - it gave GM EV fans a good feeling and something to look forward to while subtly positioning EV's as not ready for prime time yet without actually saying that. But that's the message fence-sitters got. That there will be plenty of time to go EV down the road. Go ahead and buy one or two more ICE vehicle with fat margins because we're not really ready for EV's yet. And there is no shame in buying ICE - I mean, you're an American, right?

And they did this all without looking lame. We are going to kick some serious EV ass, but not on the Norwegian's terms, on our terms. We are Americans and we are not bad people for doing it when we are good and ready! Personally, I think it was over the top but just sitting there and saying nothing about EV's will start to make them look lame.

It sounds like you actually believe they will have 30 Ultium BEV's available by 2025. I would love that, but it's not gonna happen (mark my words). I'm more than a little surprised that you actually believe them. It's just marketing double-speak. Oh, sure, they will have an excuse why it didn't happen, maybe the economy isn't strong enough and their customers demand better value, maybe the charging infrastructure didn't get built-out as fast as expected and they want to ensure their EV customers have a good ownership experience. So, here, by another gas car knowing we are hard at work on the problem. He-he! :rolleyes:

I expect GM to deliver more Hummer EVs in 2021 than Tesla sells Cybertrucks.

I don't know if your just being intentionally dense. GM NEEDs to sell lots of EVs. For every 2.5 Escalades they sell they need to sell a Hummer EV/Cadillac Lyriq to meet their CAFE obligations. Not to mention their CARB obligations. If not those sweet sweet ICE Escalade profits evaporate in fines or purchasing regulatory credits from Tesla. Then there is all the GM pickups and truck based SUVs like Suburban that needs to be offset.

I don't see advertising that says EVs are not ready for primetime. It says they are coming soon. There won't be 30 radically different Ultium EVs. The Hummer pickup is one of the 30 while the Hummer SUV is another of the 30. That is how legacy automakers count such things.
 
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Omar extremely impressed with FSD beta 8.2. Two minute clip with car handling numerous challenging situations without intervention.
That was great. So complex with the cars just parked along the side of the road with hazard lights blinking, lots of pedestrians, complex 4-way crossing etc. Seeing that makes me bullish on a Sunday!

@Norwalk79: I think it's Philadephia, but I could be wrong.
 
Their current plan appears to be to delay the volume BEV sales as long as possible.

That is factually untrue given they are currently building a 30 GWh battery factory. And a second factory has apparently imminent approval in Tennessee.


The reason their smaller ICE cars and hybrids sell at huge losses is because their manufacturing cannot compete with the Koreans and the Japanese. They are very bad at offering good value. The only reason they make money on large trucks and SUV's is because people are willing to pay a premium for large trucks and SUV's with a traditional American nameplate. That's a very tenuous advantage in a segment that is shrinking.

Toyota and Honda are also losing money on Corolla and Civic. The Honda Fit and Toyota Yaris were losing so much money Honda and Toyota cancelled those too in the USA. Americans simply don't want small cars and need massive discounts below cost in order to be bribed into buying them.

The main reason small Asian ICE cars command a premium to small American ICE cars is because Americans believe Detroit can't make a decent small car while the Asians can. This is based on the late 20th century reality not current reality. Once perception sets in it is very difficult to change.

Consumers everywhere pay premium for bigger cars. In USA, Europe and China. Americans, especially Midwestern and Southern Americans trust Detroit to make good pickup trucks and pickup truck based SUVs. Nothing tenuous about it. Brand loyalty is extremely high.


Do you believe they will be able to sell hydrogen fuel stacks in growing volumes for very long? I don't. For many reasons. Manufacturing costs are only one. Do they even make significant profit (or any profit) from this business?

I don't believe it is very relevant but if I didn't mention it someone would correct me and say GM is not getting completely out of the hydrogen fuel cell business.



What surprises me is that you think GM will be able to manufacture and sell EV's more profitably than they could manufacture and sell small ICE cars over the last several years. Why would the fact that they are EV's make GM's passenger car products any more competitive? Oh, that's right, because Ultium. Remind me again what advantage Ultium batteries have over the current trajectory of competing batteries? Please. I can't seem to wrap my head around the differentiator between Ultium and the rest. Besides that they are the ultimate battery. I know they are supposed to be better, I just can't wrap my head around WHY they are better. Or how this supposed advantage is able to transform GM's passenger car business from huge losses to profitability.

GM will sell Utlium BEVs at a profit because the ASP will be ~$60k versus $22k for a small ICEv. My guess is the cheapest Ultium BEV will be $40k while a fully loaded Celestiq will be $250k.

The Hummer EV launch edition will be $113k. That will also be profitable before ramp up. Ultium batteries will be produced at mass scale and be imported from Ohio to Detroit. Not on a small scale and imported from S. Korea to Detroit. I am not a battery expert . I will leave it to Sandy Munro to take apart and tell us if they are any better than standard LG cells.

For now GM is NOT attempting a $25k Model 2 competitor. They don't need kWh cost to match Tesla 4860 cells. Whereas Tesla sells USA regulatory credits at 50% discount GM will consume them internally at full value. Because they can sell ICE Pickups and SUVs with $15k-$50k profit without paying fines or buying regulatory credits from others..
 
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News flash: No such thing as personal privacy and hasn’t been for two decades.
Personal privacy lives on a continuum, but yes, it has been going in the wrong direction for a long time.

But it is not all bad. I knowingly and willingly choose to give up some privacy in order to benefit from the utility of a smart phone. Same for a Tesla with 8 external cameras, one internal camera, gps, and microphone. (But I do opt out of data sharing options whenever possible, assuming that actually does something.) As with anything in life, there are trade-offs.
 
Remember to reset you clocks to daylight saving time tonight at 2:00 am local (void where prohibited) :p

March 14 Falcon 9 • Starlink V1.0-L21
Launch time: 1001 GMT (6:01 a.m. EDT)​
Launch site: LC-39A, Kennedy Space Center, Florida​
A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the 22nd batch of approximately 60 satellites for SpaceX’s Starlink broadband network, a mission designated Starlink V1.0-L21. Delayed from March 13. [March 12]​
SpaceX rocket booster aces 9th launch and landing for the first time

Falcon flies for the 9th time tonight
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 14, 2021

SpaceX is certainly doing its best to make up for 2 launches in February – this mission (Starlink-21) will be the third Falcon 9 launch in ~10 days if the schedule holds. After that, Starlink-22 is already scheduled NET March 21st, which would = 4 SpaceX launches in 16 days! https://t.co/vFURGTFQ6E
— Eric Ralph (@13ericralph31) March 13, 2021
 
I happened to revisit this post today. Sigh.. I really miss Fact Checking. He is not that effective in Twitter. His verbose, very detailed factual posts suits better for a TMC like forum. I miss him.
I had a tweet exchange with Russ Mitchell on Twitter ( he approached me) and explained to him why his article about the Tesla letter to the regulator's interpretation is factually wrong. Obviously, Russ unblocked me in the meantime and did not like my comment on LinkedIn either.

The EU responsible person for ADAS system, Anthony Lagrange shared the article from Russ but after I pointed it out as irresponsible a true *sugar* storm happened on linekedIn and Twitter, and the retweet was deleted by him. I have received a mail response from Karen who wrote to him and shared it with me where he explained that he and the commission do not support the article. Tesla reached out to me in private and explained Anthony is a good guy and his intention of the retweet was a different one. I will talk about that in a YT lifestream and may write an article too (half-finished already)

I explained to Russ that the Level 2 described in the Tesla letter does not describe the technical capabilities but the liabilities. I had the same conversation with Green who is active on Twitter and got that point totally wrong too.

I will have a life YouTube session with Steven Peters to discuss all that matters more in-depth with Q&A to give everybody a heads up. Time tbd. I will inform on Twitter when and where.

George who is great at explaining the difference between the autonomy level did a fine job in this panel session to explain why the Level definitions are meaningless with regards to technical capabilities.

 
Tesla can easily start by putting out more YouTube videos and the occasional blog post.

There is a whole army of excellent volunteer YouTubers that generally make excellent videos and help get the message out.
Tesla doesn't need to pay or motivate these people, the mission motivates them.

The easy step is for Tesla to provide these YouTubers with a bit more raw material, blog posts and annual reports are an excellent way of providing detailed information that costs little to produce.

At present the advertising budget is spent building factories, producing cars which also help the mission, in fact the cars themselves are excellent advertising and also help motivate volunteer YouTubers.

So the question is if Tesla can do anything effective via conventional advertising.
I think a short positive message might help, something like "Tesla drive the future".

It is best to focus of the excellent advantages of the cars, rather than the "save the planet" narrative, everyone wants to drive a great car, sadly not everyone wants to save the planet, or face up to problems.

Sell them on the car, let them drive the car, that may case them to rethink the future...
An interview of Musk by Marques Brownlee has more impact for tech enthusiasts than any ad any company would run.
an interview with Sandy Munro has more impact on engineering enthusiasts than any review.
an interview with Jay Leno has more impact for car enthusiasts than any review from any autoguide.

I think Elon has long understood the power of social media using Twitter, and letting youtubers with the most influence interview him. the day the orders won’t be coming in like they are right now, expansion in new marketing markets might be an option.
 
Personal privacy lives on a continuum, but yes, it has been going in the wrong direction for a long time.

But it is not all bad. I knowingly and willingly choose to give up some privacy in order to benefit from the utility of a smart phone. Same for a Tesla with 8 external cameras, one internal camera, gps, and microphone. (But I do opt out of data sharing options whenever possible, assuming that actually does something.) As with anything in life, there are trade-offs.
Let me count the ways;

Cellphone
Credit Card
Bank Account
Trading Account
Loan
Mortgage
Owner, Leaser or Renter of property
Taxpayer
Internet User
Car Owner circa anything less than 20 years old
Registered Voter
Visitor of a Doctor, Dentist or other registered healthcare professional
Utility user
Walking into any building with surveillance
Walking on any city street with surveillance
Walking past a Tesla with Sentry Mode activated
Driving through any intersection with surveillance
Selling Girl Guide cookies door to door where the home owner has surveillance

The list in ways your life is not private is endless. So arguing that an in-cabin camera meant to make sure a driver is using the vehicle in a safe manner (thus not unnecessarily risking the lives of others on the road) is somehow an a front to one’s privacy is ridiculous. That was the context of the original posting.
 
The list in ways your life is not private is endless. So arguing that an in-cabin camera meant to make sure a driver is using the vehicle in a safe manner (thus not unnecessarily risking the lives of others on the road) is somehow an a front to one’s privacy is ridiculous. That was the context of the original posting.
On this we certainly agree. The only nuance I wanted to convey is that unlike the majority of your very valid examples which I would describe as personal metadata, constant video monitoring in your own personal vehicle rightly or wrongly just "feels" more intrusive than those other examples to many people.

But to your point, it is not at all unreasonable to need to accept that monitoring when (and only when) you put your car into FSD mode. And all the better if, as others have mentioned, images do not need to be shared with the mothership to accomplish the goal.

EDIT: Although I find this topic important which is why I keep responding, there's probably not a direct impact from it on TSLA investing. Apologies. Happy to move to another thread.
 
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I’m still digesting this...

An indication that Tesla is capable of, and probably moving towards, taking care of its own battery needs.
Reminds me of a break-up statement after being dumped, "she didn't leave me, I left her."