Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[corduroy]

I needed a laugh today.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1372766765600501770

Eh, I wouldn't even supercharge in that scenario. But I like the thrill of seeing how close I can get 0%.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Given the massive leap in VWs share price, and the drop in teslas, I just did some instant research as a UK customer, aiming to spend around £40k. Looking at the Volkswagen ID4 vs the tesla model 3.

The ID4 only has 1 trim option, and is £3k cheaper, but...

1. ID4 0-60 in 8.5 seconds versus 5.3 seconds
2. Range 309 vs 284 (if i'm reading it right so..a bit better).
3. top speed 100mph vs 140
4. Charging network: none versus supercharger network
5. Luggage 543l versus 414l, so better.
6. 12" touchscreen versus 15" touchscreen.

I don't think there is much choice, the model 3 wins flat out IMHO, but I can see how some people would think thus:

• VW is a known, reliable brand
• Higher range is always good
• Every euro/pound/dollar counts, so why spend more?
• More luggage space is good.

So I can see VW doing well if they can market/target the car with great skill. Here is how I think tesla need to fight back:

• REALLY hammer home the convenience of the supercharger network, and how the navigation is built in, and the chargers are so easy to spot and use. It should be front and center on the tesla pages for every car.
• Absolutely stop caring about speed. Sure, plaid+ is a great halo car for testosterone fueled sports car lovers. Not so much for joe/jane who just wants to commute to the office. teslas reputation for fast cars is established now.
• Hammer-home how safe the cars are.

In short, make sure people know teslas are safe, convenient and a breeze to use.

Tesla, thanks to the roadster, the model S, elon being elon, and youtube videos have already locked down the 'teslas are super-fast high tech awesome gadgets'. Thats great, but volkswagen doesn't sell to that market anyway. VW is selling to housewives and schoolteachers, and people who see a car as a tool, not as a toy.

Elon is tony stark, and his fans love him, but he needs to be aware that to sell >1million cars a year you cant sell just to gadget lovers and speed-freaks. Luggage space and convenience and safety are a bigger draw. Otherwise we will continue to see cars like the ID3 and ID4 as technically inferior, but still watch people buy them.

 

[mars_or_bust]

Given the massive leap in VWs share price, and the drop in teslas, I just did some instant research as a UK customer, aiming to spend around £40k. Looking at the Volkswagen ID4 vs the tesla model 3.

The ID4 only has 1 trim option, and is £3k cheaper, but...

1. ID4 0-60 in 8.5 seconds versus 5.3 seconds
2. Range 309 vs 284 (if i'm reading it right so..a bit better).
3. top speed 100mph vs 140
4. Charging network: none versus supercharger network
5. Luggage 543l versus 414l, so better.
6. 12" touchscreen versus 15" touchscreen.

I don't think there is much choice, the model 3 wins flat out IMHO, but I can see how some people would think thus:

• VW is a known, reliable brand
• Higher range is always good
• Every euro/pound/dollar counts, so why spend more?
• More luggage space is good.

So I can see VW doing well if they can market/target the car with great skill. Here is how I think tesla need to fight back:

• REALLY hammer home the convenience of the supercharger network, and how the navigation is built in, and the chargers are so easy to spot and use. It should be front and center on the tesla pages for every car.
• Absolutely stop caring about speed. Sure, plaid+ is a great halo car for testosterone fueled sports car lovers. Not so much for joe/jane who just wants to commute to the office. teslas reputation for fast cars is established now.
• Hammer-home how safe the cars are.

In short, make sure people know teslas are safe, convenient and a breeze to use.

Tesla, thanks to the roadster, the model S, elon being elon, and youtube videos have already locked down the 'teslas are super-fast high tech awesome gadgets'. Thats great, but volkswagen doesn't sell to that market anyway. VW is selling to housewives and schoolteachers, and people who see a car as a tool, not as a toy.

Elon is tony stark, and his fans love him, but he needs to be aware that to sell >1million cars a year you cant sell just to gadget lovers and speed-freaks. Luggage space and convenience and safety are a bigger draw. Otherwise we will continue to see cars like the ID3 and ID4 as technically inferior, but still watch people buy them.

Uh, you neglected by far the most important difference, and the mother of all Tesla Moats - software/Autopilot/FSD. The software is what sets Tesla completely apart, and will do so, from what I see, for at least 5++ years. This is an advantage that is equivalent to iPhone software -it took many years for a (semi)competitor in the from of Android to appear.

And once you experience the Tesla software environment, everything else will seem (and in fact is) like outdated crap.

 

[keydiver]

Not trying to drive the conversation OT so just a quick update on my 3
Insurance is calling it totalled and is offering me either
- $18K and the car back as is
Or
- $58K and no car back

This is similar to what happened with my Model 3 Midrange (Lemur) when it was skewered by the hitch on a pickup truck. It went from a $14,000 repair to "totalled", simply because Progressive didn't want to deal with a cracked harness connector in the front fender. The offers that they were getting for a 4,000 mile Lemur (with the upgraded wheels and full white interior) were ridiculously high, so they decided to scrap it. They actually paid me more ($48k) than I paid for the Lemur, so I upgraded to a Long Range, which now came standard with Autopilot. I say just take the deal, get a Model Y with a little more road clearance, and be happy.

 

[scaesare]

Now I want a T-shirt with the button.

Or a pair of short-shorts with it placed strategically upon them...

 

[Singuy]

Welp, there goes our recovery.

The Fed will not extend a pandemic-crisis rule that had allowed banks to relax capital levels

The Fed declined to extend a pandemic-era rule that relaxed the amount of capital banks had to maintain against Treasurys and other holdings.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Christine69420]

Last night I ordered a new Model S Plaid. Delivery in November so a part of Q4 results. Today for me this is more interesting than the share price.

 

[Huskyf]

I thought Tesla was just another dumb car company? /s

Answers of Tesla

https://twitter.com/x/status/1372887418341261316

https://twitter.com/x/status/1372829742970245120

 

[Singuy]

Answers of Tesla

https://twitter.com/x/status/1372887418341261316

https://twitter.com/x/status/1372829742970245120

Isn't the exterior cameras the main reason for the ban? Seems like Tesla will have to remove sentry mode or something. And I think all lane keep assist has some kind of external camera, including back up cameras. So it's probably a matter of cameras on while car is on vs off.

 

[Huskyf]

Isn't the exterior cameras the main reason for the ban? Seems like Tesla will have to remove sentry mode or something. And I think all lane keep assist has some kind of external camera, including back up cameras. So it's probably a matter of cameras on while car is on vs off.

Yes but in short term normally thex want to built a new center in China and all connexions or autipolit images are stored
in China

 

[Jetpad]

Just doesn’t make sense to build $5k car, which is essentially like the cheapest car sold in the word today.

I think the lowest tesla may go for is $15k car but that too I don’t see happening. Most likely Model2 will be the lowest Tesla will ever produce, because at that time they should have reasonable FSD. After that Tesla would rather operate fleet cars than sell it in volumes. We will see.

I think if Tesla made a car (which is technically a motorcycle) similar to the Arcimoto for India they could probably do it today for about that price.

 

[Johnny Ma]

Isn't the exterior cameras the main reason for the ban? Seems like Tesla will have to remove sentry mode or something. And I think all lane keep assist has some kind of external camera, including back up cameras. So it's probably a matter of cameras on while car is on vs off.

From the tweet in Chinese, it's just talking about the interior camera.

The ban on military bases is a different issue that was somehow tied linked to this, but maybe that's due to the fact that it has cameras at all.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Uh, you neglected by far the most important difference, and the mother of all Tesla Moats - software/Autopilot/FSD. The software is what sets Tesla completely apart, and will do so, from what I see, for at least 5++ years. This is an advantage that is equivalent to iPhone software -it took many years for a (semi)competitor in the from of Android to appear.

And once you experience the Tesla software environment, everything else will seem (and in fact is) like outdated crap.

Nope, I deliberately did not include them, because at my (imaginary) £40k budget, I couldn't afford them on the tesla model 3, so the fact that they are an option is nice but...

Again to many people right now, thats a gadget. Sure, its a cool gadget. I have AP1 on my S, and I love it. But Volkswagen are not competing for the best gadget, they are selling cars RIGHT NOW to people who might love autopilot but cannot afford it.
Its great and very forward thinking that a model 3 even without autopilot has a HW3 computer and a lot of sensors, but it might be one reason why they still cannot match the ID4 on cost.

Put yourself in the shoes of someone who normally spends £25k on a car and is stretching massively to hit the £40k ID4. They are not going to pay extra for AP/FSD, especially if they only do short city driving to take the kids to school.

 

[Doit]

Nice informative commentary. You provide two links to articles on distortion of time perception during stress; it turns out they are links to two different articles. The one that is downloadable ("pdf" in your note) talks about effects of stress but does not discuss time distortion at all. The "on time distortion under stress" link is to a site where the article is behind a paywall. Is there a way to access that article at a site without a paywall?

Sorry for the mix-up. Here: On time distortion under stress
Google Scholar and Sci-Hub are two good places to find papers. People might have a second thought about websites like Sci-Hub, but authors with published papers know how ridiculous the situation is.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

$700c 3/26 @ $7.65

Buying at $700c as we move down today. Nomnomnomnom

 

[thx1139]

I think market for Tesla is going to be like this for awhile. Until 2021 numbers start arriving and showing the true trajectory Tesla sales will be for 2021 investors are nervous. Afraid the S and X delivery delays may make this be something that continues through the 2nd quarter. The S and X delivery delays are going to allow negative news to have legs when it comes to deliveries and Tesla not being able to execute. Unless the Model 3 and Model Y numbers are absolutely blowout 1st quarter I thing negativity may rule the day until Q2 ends and deliveries are back to where the significant amount above 50% year over year growth looks probable.

 

[Stars aligned]

Vague price targets in ugly markets that allow for lower and higher do not mean much. Just sounds like you are gloating.

Tell us how low you think it will go. What is ‘much lower before it gets better’?

500? 400? 300? 200?

Stop me when I get there.

More generally, price targets do not mean much, independent of ugly or favorable markets.

Can't give a price target but it will change when the current headwinds turn. Headwinds turning is something which can be observed.

Depending on that all of your given figures are certainly possible. 200 is a bit on the very low side, though.

 

[SpaceCash]

More generally, price targets do not mean much, independent of ugly or favorable markets.

Can't give a price target but it will change when the current headwinds turn. Headwinds turning is something which can be observed.

Depending on that all of your given figures are certainly possible. 200 is a bit on the very low side, though.

This ticker can be at 8 fitty next week for exactly no reason and you know it.

 

[Brunel]

Question for UK-based investors: after buying and holding shares for a couple of years I might be ready to get more adventurous. I only have 800 shares that are not in ISAs, but selling covered calls is an acceptable risk before i dare think about other options. I use a couple of very basic platforms, but UK seems to have limited choice. Is Interactive Brokers best place to move shares to if I decide to go down covered calls route? Feel free to DM me with recommendations or even offer more specific advice/"not advice" (post-lockdown there might be a coffee and muffin in it to give me an excuse to use the car)! I can keep the basic platforms for my ISA based shares as I doubt one can muddy the water.

 

[15Peter20]

More generally, price targets do not mean much, independent of ugly or favorable markets.

Can't give a price target but it will change when the current headwinds turn. Headwinds turning is something which can be observed.

Depending on that all of your given figures are certainly possible. 200 is a bit on the very low side, though.

Never used the ignore function before. Don't know where to find it actually, but give me 5 minutes....