Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
They specify ZERO CapEx in 2025, so are pricing the terminal value of the company (no future growth after 2025), priced at standard market multiples. Pretty weak-ass assumption, given the STATED Tesla growth roadmap (20m vehicles/yr by 2030).$0 from energy, $0 from licensing, $0 from any software other than FSD
Their Monte Carlo simulation outputs have prices going upward of $28k/share. I’m going to enjoy poking through the excel models over the weekend.
I love the fact that it’s conservative and yet their bull case is a 6x in 5 years with the expected case being a 5x.
Now just imagine 2030.
ARK Invest is again trying to cram Tesla into their box (5-year horizon). That part is just bad accounting / valuation practice. But do they really think that TE will be worth nothing in 5 years? When TE deployments of megapack tripled in 2020, and bty costs are going down by 75% in that time frame.
Next: Tesla will NOT, EVER launch a human ride hailing service. Tesla owners who want to do that can drive for Uber or Lyft. Building that infrastruture (Call Centre, HR, Tax/Payroll, inevitable dismissals and lawsuits) is a waste of company time and effort, a distraction and and delay for what is guaranteed to be a dead end. Hey ARK: Tesla DON'T NEED THE STINKIN' $$$ or the B.S.
ARK is just plain wrong on human ride hailing, and won't give it up because it fills a perceived gap in their model so nicely (while ignoring that it doesn't fit ANYWHERE in Tesla's plans).
Finally, ARK's 5-yr Bull case gives Tesla a CAGR of 43.8% (if everthing goes well). You took a friggin' year to come up with 44%?! Try again next year...
Cheers!
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