Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SpaceCash]

Disagree. That article is quite objective with a lot of positive things to say about her. There are way too many blind Tesla fanboys on this forum who will look for a conspiracy theory to explain why the sun rose this morning.

Psshhhh... yeah, okay buddy tell us how you really feel
I bet you believe birds are real

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm also surprised that Ark's forecast left out the Semi, in fact, they didn't even mention they left it out.

Surely, this is going to be ramping up quickly. Why else would Tesla name Jerome Guillen as President of Tesla Heavy Trucking?

Does anyone have forecasts for Semi revenue from now till 2025?

You should review this article from Feb 4, 2021:

Rumor: Tesla Semi Production Could Start July, Target of 2,500 Builds

Release Candidate (RC) in May 2021. Pilot production by July 2021. Target 350 semi's total built by Aug 2021. The target for 2021 year end is 2,500 (see below - projections 'single-sourced' so substantial salt recommended):

Volume Projections:​

​

• 100 / week by end of 2021​

• 500 / week by end of 2022​

​

Total builds projection:​

​

• 2021: 2,500​

• 2022: 10,000​

• 2023: 25,000​

• Final: 50,000 (Update: Full production volume)​

​

This is not enough volume to move the SP substantially for 2021, but gives us an idea how Semi production may progress. Significantly, the article says production for Europe may begin in 2023, but does NOT say if said production will occur in N. America or in Europe (presumably Austin vs. Berlin). Also, I would be gob-smak'd if Semi wasn't also produced in China (v. large truck market), so again this from a single-source of information, Tesla supplier who is possibly not a supplier for China, and would therefore not have any production-intent information relevant to Tesla China.​

​

Cheers!​

​

P.S. From other sources, pilot production & early Semi's will be assembled at Giga Nevada, with their 2170 cells, and using cab/bodies built in Fremont.​

 

[WolfHero]

Meet Kevin channel more analysis on Ark's prediction and his twitter response to Cathie Wood.

Elon's response:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1373492611231535111

 

[RobStark]

Meet Kevin channel more analysis on Ark's prediction and his twitter response to Cathie Wood.

Elon's response:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1373492611231535111

I guess some TMCers will call Elon a concern troll because he is not predicting Tesla with 65%-100% market share.

 

[SpaceCash]

I guess some TMCers will call Elon a concern troll because he is not predicting Tesla with 65%-100% market share.

No, we're gonna call that SANDBAGGING, sheesh man get it right

 

[2daMoon]

Didn’t see this shared here so I thought I’d pass it along. Matt over at sparkspread is an excellent analyst and has done some great research.
Spoiler:it’s higher than today’s SP. By quite a bit.

Take away FSD and Robotaxi and his number is $680. Considering neither of those are "real" at this time those can only be added in once they are generating revenue. (granted, FSD is "generating revenue" through subscriptions, but you know what I mean)

I like the guy's work, but today $2900 isn't the valuation, maybe someday soon it could be.

 

[st_lopes]

Meet Kevin channel more analysis on Ark's prediction and his twitter response to Cathie Wood.

Elon's response:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1373492611231535111

One major flaw in his discussions... he’s comparing his 2030 target to ark’s 2025.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

50M will never happen, unless you think Tesla achieves well over a 50% worldwide market share. At some point (even if it doesn't happen in the next couple of years), robotaxis will arrive and car ownership will level off and gradually decline.

Piper Sandler believes global auto sales will peak ~2030 and decline from there. They are probably accurate within 1-2 years.

I'll eat my hat if Tesla builds more than 10-11 total GFs.

Yes: 50 mio robo-vehicles/year is a staggeringly wild assumption. Granted.

But ... we don't know how the transportation market will look like in 20-30 years.
There is a path for Tesla to get robotaxi cost down to 5 cent/mile. Lets say 7 cent/mile price. With some extrapolation of growth globally, and more and more people joining the (perhaps lower) middle class globally there might be a huge market for 7 cent/mile transport.

If you include vans and mini-buses you can perhaps get the price per customer below 1 cent/mile. At 1 cent/mile almost all people can afford some kind of robo-transport in 20-30 years. So around 9 billion customers. (depending on population growth)

 

[FireMedic]

Take away FSD and Robotaxi and his number is $680. Considering neither of those are "real" at this time those can only be added in once they are generating revenue. (granted, FSD is "generating revenue" through subscriptions, but you know what I mean)

I like the guy's work, but today $2900 isn't the valuation, maybe someday soon it could be.

I get there will be some discount for the FSD portion as it’s not feature complete; but to discount it completely would be disingenuous IMO.
There is already revenue for FSD and even TSLA bears, I believe, would assign some value to it especially as many tech companies are attempting their own versions of FSD.

 

[Subhuman]

So I have been thinking about my long term holding of TSLA. I’ve been an investor since 2013 and have not sold a single share (only accumulated more) and don’t plan on doing so until 2030 at the earliest.

Then I started think, once Tesla is a mature boring company, they will most likely start paying a dividend. Depending on the dividend and the number of share I have, maybe it makes sense to never sell and just pass the shares down to my kids. I know it’s a total WAG but what are your thoughts on what one could expect on a dividend of a mature Tesla.

 

[Hock1]

Meet Kevin channel more analysis on Ark's prediction and his twitter response to Cathie Wood.

Elon's response:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1373492611231535111

My take on Elon's response is: expect a partner/licensee or two for the $25,000 "World Car".

 

[EVWatcher]

So I have been thinking about my long term holding of TSLA. I’ve been an investor since 2013 and have not sold a single share (only accumulated more) and don’t plan on doing so until 2030 at the earliest.

Then I started think, once Tesla is a mature boring company, they will most likely start paying a dividend. Depending on the dividend and the number of share I have, maybe it makes sense to never sell and just pass the shares down to my kids. I know it’s a total WAG but what are your thoughts on what one could expect on a dividend of a mature Tesla.

I think Elon has repeatedly said no. But I feel like at some point if tesl pays a dividend it both helps his plan to colonize space and maintain control of Tesla.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

How is it a joke? Sure, they have only built it to about a third of the originally planned size, but at that size it is already producing more than the quantity of cells that they had said it was going to produce when fully built. And in addition they have added production of other things, like the electric motors, to the plant. So they have gotten way more out of way less than they planned. How is that a joke?

Not to mention a few other very important things: The got Panasonic to believe they were serious. They got some investors to believe same.

At the end, as others have mentioned, people are just not that keen on Nevada and Sparks. Elon specifically addressed this re. both Berlin and Austin: It is important to be close to an good urban center. 'Cause most people are not totally driven by achievements, they want to live a nice place with many things to do and visit.
I see 2 ways to correct for the sub-optimal location of Giga Sparks/Nevada:

• Perhaps in 10 years The Boring company can provide faster transport. It doesn't really solve the bad location, but it mitigates it.
• If Tesla at some point goes all-in on robotics, including humanoid shapes, some or most of these will likely have tele-presence too. Soo, you commute from your home by linking up with an android - and then go to work. Couple of times a month, you schlepp there physically back and forth, for socializing and keeping the human touch.

 

[mickle]

So I have been thinking about my long term holding of TSLA. I’ve been an investor since 2013 and have not sold a single share (only accumulated more) and don’t plan on doing so until 2030 at the earliest.

Then I started think, once Tesla is a mature boring company, they will most likely start paying a dividend. Depending on the dividend and the number of share I have, maybe it makes sense to never sell and just pass the shares down to my kids. I know it’s a total WAG but what are your thoughts on what one could expect on a dividend of a mature Tesla.

If they ever pay dividends I think they'll be paid out in Bitcoins and not dollars.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

My take on Elon's response is: expect a partner/licensee or two for the $25,000 "World Car".

Hm...
Pros: Politics - looks good for Tesla to be cooperating instead of crushing competition. And thus can alleviate, reduce or avoid regulatory obstructions.
Cons: Lack of Tesla culture (hard to define, but open, fast and chaotic seems to be the norm) You can train people for that, but it takes time.

Partnering/licensing might happen.
But I think we need to wait a few more years for Tesla to grow and expand, and for the traditional OEMS to be more scared and desperate than today.

 

[Hock1]

Hm...
Pros: Politics - looks good for Tesla to be cooperating instead of crushing competition. And thus can alleviate, reduce or avoid regulatory obstructions.
Cons: Lack of Tesla culture (hard to define, but open, fast and chaotic seems to be the norm) You can train people for that, but it takes time.

Partnering/licensing might happen.
But I think we need to wait a few more years for Tesla to grow and expand, and for the traditional OEMS to be more scared and desperate than today.

Good points, but I believe what Elon is saying is that, no matter how fast Tesla can manufacture robotaxis, it still won't be fast enough without engaging manufacturing capacity other that what Tesla can muster, to complete the mission.

 

[Beltsbear]

Are we at 5 really? GF1 is kinda a joke at current size, and I don't see any signs of further build-out - do you?

You understand GF1 is truly a monster? It made about the same amount of round Lion batteries as everyone else combined in 2019. If you want to not count one, don't count GF2, NY.

 

[PeterJA]

So I have been thinking about my long term holding of TSLA. I’ve been an investor since 2013 and have not sold a single share (only accumulated more) and don’t plan on doing so until 2030 at the earliest.

Then I started think, once Tesla is a mature boring company, they will most likely start paying a dividend. Depending on the dividend and the number of share I have, maybe it makes sense to never sell and just pass the shares down to my kids. I know it’s a total WAG but what are your thoughts on what one could expect on a dividend of a mature Tesla.

Will Tesla ever become mature, meaning they run out of major problems to solve? Their mission started out with sustainable transport, then broadened to sustainable energy. Maybe it will broaden again to sustainable living, on the home planet and others.

Elon wants to sustain human life ("the light of consciousness"), but said Tesla currently can't tackle some problems (e.g., electric aircraft) because their braintrust is too busy. That will change as transport and energy get solved and the braintrust of top engineers continues to grow (attracted by Tesla's culture), perhaps aided by Tesla artificial intelligence.

Plenty of other problems need solving to get our species off the freight train to extinction: climate change, soil depletion, ecosystem collapse, chemical pollution, global pandemics, toxic medicine and food production, biological and nuclear terrorism, poverty and violent revolution. Maybe by the time those are solved, the concept of dividends will be obsolete. If humans learn to share the immense wealth created by technology, and start taking better care of each other, your children might not need dividends or money as we know it. I can dream.

 

[Subhuman]

Will Tesla ever become mature, meaning they run out of major problems to solve? Their mission started out with sustainable transport, then broadened to sustainable energy. Maybe it will broaden again to sustainable living, on the home planet and others.

Elon wants to sustain human life ("the light of consciousness"), but said Tesla currently can't tackle some problems (e.g., electric aircraft) because their braintrust is too busy. That will change as transport and energy get solved and the braintrust of top engineers continues to grow (attracted by Tesla's culture), perhaps aided by Tesla artificial intelligence.

Plenty of other problems need solving to get our species off the freight train to extinction: climate change, soil depletion, ecosystem collapse, chemical pollution, global pandemics, toxic medicine and food production, biological and nuclear terrorism, poverty and violent revolution. Maybe by the time those are solved, the concept of dividends will be obsolete. If humans learn to share the immense wealth created by technology, and start taking better care of each other, your children might not need dividends or money as we know it. I can dream.

To this point, they will have to mature at some point but the question is how long will that be. I see Tesla as a modern day General Electric. GE ran the table for around 100 years. They use to make anything and everything. Unfortunately their time has come to an end and the business in now in fast decline but you can’t really argue about being king if the hill for that long.

 

[OrthoSurg]

To anyone worried Tesla could be losing market shares to the Mustang MachE, do not worry, Ford might also offer the Death Wobble option available to the MachE.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1371327511238385665

Might be a driving assist feature to make sure you stay awake.

If you know Tesla owners complaning of road noise at higher speed, please feel free to share the strong competition offered by Ford.