Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tes La Ferrari]

big deal.
"death wobble is just a strong "shimmy with a bit of a shudder"
:We had a 1956 Plymouth station wagon that had a "shimmy" if you got up to 50 that forced you to slow down. The car would still be controlable it was good for beginner drivers to be safer.
He just needs more practice is all

a.k.a. the great grandfather of chill mode.

 

[MC3OZ]

Will Tesla ever become mature, meaning they run out of major problems to solve? Their mission started out with sustainable transport, then broadened to sustainable energy. Maybe it will broaden again to sustainable living, on the home planet and others.

Elon wants to sustain human life ("the light of consciousness"), but said Tesla currently can't tackle some problems (e.g., electric aircraft) because their braintrust is too busy. That will change as transport and energy get solved and the braintrust of top engineers continues to grow (attracted by Tesla's culture), perhaps aided by Tesla artificial intelligence.

Plenty of other problems need solving to get our species off the freight train to extinction: climate change, soil depletion, ecosystem collapse, chemical pollution, global pandemics, toxic medicine and food production, biological and nuclear terrorism, poverty and violent revolution. Maybe by the time those are solved, the concept of dividends will be obsolete. If humans learn to share the immense wealth created by technology, and start taking better care of each other, your children might not need dividends or money as we know it. I can dream.

Dividends are a pragmatic, rather than an ideological, decision.

It will depend on how much they are earning, and how quickly they can efficiently spend it.

We are still in a rapid expansion phase for the next 5 years, perhaps the next 10 years, so dividends are unlikely in that timeframe.

But if Tesla keeps growing revenues and 50% per year, for 10 years, what does that look like, and do they hit a point where revenues and profits exceed the opportunities for sensible investment decisions?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

To anyone worried Tesla could be losing market shares to the Mustang MachE, do not worry, Ford might also offer the Death Wobble option available to the MachE.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1371327511238385665

Might be a driving assist feature to make sure you stay awake.

If you know Tesla owners complaning of road noise at higher speed, please feel free to share the strong competition offered by Ford.

Let me guess, the media isn't going to say much about this but don't worry, the next time a Tesla crashes it will be all over CNBC and Bloomberg about how it was probably in Autopilot!

 

[JRP3]

I see 2 ways to correct for the sub-optimal location of Giga Sparks/Nevada:

Alien Dreadnought, eliminate the humans in manufacturing.

 

[generalenthu]

If they ever pay dividends I think they'll be paid out in Bitcoins and not dollars.

If they ever pay dividends, I hope they pay in TeslaCoin, that shorts can't borrow. A nice way to force them to cover, if there are any at that point. OSTK did this and saw it's share price skyrocket, though I think the CEO is a card carrying Crazy.

 

[Pras]

So I have been thinking about my long term holding of TSLA. I’ve been an investor since 2013 and have not sold a single share (only accumulated more) and don’t plan on doing so until 2030 at the earliest.

Then I started think, once Tesla is a mature boring company, they will most likely start paying a dividend. Depending on the dividend and the number of share I have, maybe it makes sense to never sell and just pass the shares down to my kids. I know it’s a total WAG but what are your thoughts on what one could expect on a dividend of a mature Tesla.

And buybacks. Look at aapl

 

[Maitri982]

Meet Kevin channel more analysis on Ark's prediction and his twitter response to Cathie Wood.

Elon's response:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1373492611231535111

Per my prior post, this is true unless you productize the tech stack. Do you think ifvtesla creates cars that are ten times safer than humans they will be able to keep it captive? They wont. So before government mandate you productize it and sell it to other automakers.

As I also hinted, there is huge market for something that can navigate in uncertain environment. Robots...

So market even bigger than cars and Tesla has all the pieces.

 

[RobStark]

I think Elon has repeatedly said no. But I feel like at some point if tesl pays a dividend it both helps his plan to colonize space and maintain control of Tesla.

Elon has said no. In the foreseeable future.

Sometimes he says 5 years is the foreseeable future. Sometimes 10 years.

The chances of getting a second Elon after he retires/dies to intelligently invest $1T + in profits per year are low.

The chances global governments being ok with Tesla controlling an ever increasing share of GDP is also low. 10% 20% 50% 90%?

 

[Opus BC fan]

I am thinking we will have some continuing buying opportunities for the next 2 weeks. Monday may see a small bump up but that will be eroded quickly.
(WAG based on macros remaining wonky and FUD looking elevated to me)

I suggest keeping the seat belts fastened, HODLing, and continuing the search for dry powder.

 

[Maitri982]

Per my prior post, this is true unless you productize the tech stack. Do you think ifvtesla creates cars that are ten times safer than humans they will be able to keep it captive? They wont. So before government mandate you productize it and sell it to other automakers.

As I also hinted, there is huge market for something that can navigate in uncertain environment. Robots...

So market even bigger than cars and Tesla has all the pieces.

And maybe you require them to use Tesla network too and get an annuity.

 

[S3XY]

Does anyone have thoughts as to why some beta testers have videos that look amazing while some drivers have videos like this for the same version?

I didn't watch any of this after the point where the car put the right turn signal on to change lanes near the stop light and he canceled FSD because there was a truck approaching in that next lane (1:40). But FSD wasn't going to just run into the truck. It likely would have waited for it to pass and had room to move over or was moving partially in front of it before the truck got there. It's hard to say though since we couldn't see the truck approaching and he canceled it when it started moving right. So then he continues in that same left lane until he gets to a left turn only section and wonders why it tried to move right and cross the lane hash markings to get in the lane that goes straight, which is where the navigation is pointing. The problem is that he activated FSD just when it hits that restricted lane section and navigation didn't have time to avoid that lane beforehand. If he hadn't cancelled it at the previous block FSD already knew it had to, and actually started to, move to the next lane to the right so it could continue straight at the next block.

 

[Knightshade]

ultrasonic sensors are probably necessary as cameras don’t have a sufficiently wide field of view at super close range. E.g., if you’re inches away from an obstruction that is very low in a parking spot.

Ultrasonics can't actually do that either though.

It's why the car still hits curbs (and sometimes other cars) when parking itself.

It can see fairly close- it can't see VERY close if the object is quite high or quite low.


In my "If Tesla wants a real L5 sensor suite" idea; the car has fisheye cameras low on the bumpers- which would both provide a genuine overhead 360 parking view, and provide safe self parking even in narrow/tight spots where the front cameras that can't see below the hood line can't tell if there's anything low/in front of the wheels.

If it had em to the sides too it'd let it see better around tight corners where now the car has to keep inching up into traffic to see to the sides with the B-pillar cameras... (and in the back it'd provide better to-the-side cross traffic view backing out of something).

Radar is only necessary for superhuman performance.

Why would we not want that?

No reasonable way to model it right now

They modeled robotaxis, and those don't even exist yet- and ask 10 people and get 10 different answers of the actual demand, the impact on "regular" car ownership, the real cost per mile, and so on.

The solar and energy businesses do actually exist and we have a reasonable idea of the size of the addressable market, the current costs and profits, and so on. How's THAT no reasonable way to model, but RTs are?

Then I started think, once Tesla is a mature boring company, they will most likely start paying a dividend.

Elon has in the past explicitly said Tesla does not pay a dividend and never will.

Not that he never changes his mind- but I certainly wouldn't base any long term investment plans on him doing so.

EDIT: I've gone back a month to look the various videos from this YouTube channel and the videos NEVER demonstrate the actual version number of the FW. Also, the views of the interior show different cars. Sometimes the mylar is on the center screen and sometimes NOT. Seems like they might be getting a hold of different cars at different times before they are getting delivered. And remember that during delivery the FW is updated to the latest. None of these videos demonstrate the actual version number of the FW.

So your premise is they somehow keep getting multiple, different, "new" cars that never had their firmware updated... but.... somehow ALL came from the factory with FSDBeta enabled, but also an old version of it? And Tesla hasn't caught on to any of this happening too?


Seems....somewhat less plausable....than "sometimes FSDBeta screws up, and the guy isn't afraid to include those examples when he posts video"

If FSDBeta did not sometimes screw up, it'd already be in wide release after all.

 

[Discoducky]

So your premise is they somehow keep getting multiple, different, "new" cars that never had their firmware updated... but.... somehow ALL came from the factory with FSDBeta enabled, but also an old version of it? And Tesla hasn't caught on to any of this happening too?


Seems....somewhat less plausable....than "sometimes FSDBeta screws up, and the guy isn't afraid to include those examples when he posts video"

If FSDBeta did not sometimes screw up, it'd already be in wide release after all.

Did you watch the video? They seem to be using different cars unless they took the mylar off the center screen and then put it back on a few times.

I'm all for figuring out these FSD issues, but let's do it to improve the firmware as opposed to trying to 'get clicks'

 

[EVCollies]

So I have been thinking about my long term holding of TSLA. I’ve been an investor since 2013 and have not sold a single share (only accumulated more) and don’t plan on doing so until 2030 at the earliest.

Then I started think, once Tesla is a mature boring company, they will most likely start paying a dividend. Depending on the dividend and the number of share I have, maybe it makes sense to never sell and just pass the shares down to my kids. I know it’s a total WAG but what are your thoughts on what one could expect on a dividend of a mature Tesla.

You can possibly create your own dividend, or reinvest shares, with options trading.

 

[mongo]

Elon has in the past explicitly said Tesla does not pay a dividend and never will.

Ummm.... never? What about this Tweet from 2013?

https://twitter.com/x/status/329635321824309248

@RealTomLangel
Maybe a v long time from now. Paying div is a sign that a company cannot find good ways to spend money.

 

[Discoducky]

To anyone worried Tesla could be losing market shares to the Mustang MachE, do not worry, Ford might also offer the Death Wobble option available to the MachE.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1371327511238385665

Might be a driving assist feature to make sure you stay awake.

If you know Tesla owners complaning of road noise at higher speed, please feel free to share the strong competition offered by Ford.

I was amazed to find out that the Mach E does NOT have regen. And, to my knowledge, every EV to up until this point, has had regen. From an engineering point, regen is so simple to just run the motor in reverse, so it makes me wonder why Ford does NOT have it currently or is this forever? Put more bluntly, it seems like a huge red flag at this point as regen is free energy as well as greatly reducing wear and tear on the braking system.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I was amazed to find out that the Mach E does NOT have regen. And, to my knowledge, every EV to up until this point, has had regen. From an engineering point, regen is so simple to just run the motor in reverse, so it makes me wonder why Ford does NOT have it currently or is this forever? Put more bluntly, it seems like a huge red flag at this point as regen is free energy as well as greatly reducing wear and tear on the braking system.

I did not know that.
this is good for Ford, more brake wear, more brake maintenance, more visits and profits to the Ford dealership.
not so good for customers.

 

[AudubonB]

How is it a joke? Sure, they have only built it to about a third of the originally planned size, but at that size it is already producing more than the quantity of cells that they had said it was going to produce when fully built. And in addition they have added production of other things, like the electric motors, to the plant. So they have gotten way more out of way less than they planned. How is that a joke?

This is not correct. Tesla's original proclamations about the Sparks plant were that its fully-built out size would have it producing 105 gWh of batteries each year. Even when I visited it in 2016, Mr Musk said that the 105 gWh number would be the eventual full size.

I think he meant it is a joke compared to the relative expected production capacity of other gigafactories. The others having significantly greater production projections.

I concur with @Beltsbear that NY properly should be considered a Really Big Factory, but not a Gigafactory. A reminder, though: there are quite a few - not surprisingly, most appear to be Texans - who take severe umbrage in my disparaging their bombast about Austin being a Terafactory.

 

[Discoducky]

I think it is worth commenting on this statement in particular.

"VW’s software platform and ecosystem are top-notch compared to most classic OEMs, but are “years behind Tesla”."

Specifically for OTA. To be clear, it is wholly unknown to what level/depth any OTA solution has until you see it actually functioning in production to do updates of specific components and then that those components can then be updated again in production.

The hardest part about OTA is that you might 'brick' components. Where bricking is defined as rendering a component inoperable to further updates to completely nonfunctional. And whenever you OTA a component you run a risk of bricking that component. The bricking is due to the memory that the code is both being written to as well as what memory the old code is written to and how they are swapped. It is super hard and no matter how solid you think the process is, there is always a fraction of memory that goes bad. In other words, unless you've written amazing bootloader code, implemented robust abundant memory and have a full proof process for ensuring code stability, I can guarantee you'll brick at least 1% of components everytime they are updated.

Imagine bricking the brake system, EPAS, body controls ECUs, drive control, BMS...etc for 10000 cars when you update 1M in your fleet.

When we first started writing this code at Tesla it was crazy hard, never been done before and our suppliers had no idea what we were talking about.

So I saw this article and while it is hard to read (as there is no chart or matrix of anykind) it is worth noting that not a single car company TO DATE has implemented OTA for FW (firmware). But if anyone knows differently that would be great to know.

Just to be crystal clear on this, to enable FW OTA is super hard. Also, there is really no way to know that you got a FW OTA update **UNLESS** one of the systems had very different behavior (which includes the infotainment system). This does NOT include new maps updates or even better performance of the infotainment system.

To describe this very different behavior would be very different like faster 0-60 times, materially better braking performance, better self driving characteristics, suspension features or behaviors, changes in how windows or doors operate, changes in pedal performance or regen feel...etc.

 

[Mo City]

I was amazed to find out that the Mach E does NOT have regen. And, to my knowledge, every EV to up until this point, has had regen. From an engineering point, regen is so simple to just run the motor in reverse, so it makes me wonder why Ford does NOT have it currently or is this forever? Put more bluntly, it seems like a huge red flag at this point as regen is free energy as well as greatly reducing wear and tear on the braking system.

LOL, fortunately for Ford, people who haven't owned EVs have little or no appreciation for regen braking. They will benefit from that ignorance for some time.