Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVMeister]

Wow. I’ve never seen a person (hrtme) with a negative rating on this site.

This forum should just autoban people who reach a certain negative rating. Especially if it's spread out over multple posts. Not saying this member has reached that state. But if a certain negative rating is reached, what is the person doing besides annoying other forum members?

 

[Todd Burch]

There is a slightly less than zero chance that the casting yields are 10%. Probably -8% chance.
Trash should stay where it belongs: it the nether regions of the interwebs.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

"Gigafactory" used to be only in the Tesla-sphere. It seemed like a mislabeling by sloppy journalists at one time, But now the term carries little "Teslaness" with it.
In the last week I kept hearing it mentioned in reference to both car and battery manufacturing by "others."

Volkswagen Group to open six European gigafactories by 2030 | Autocar

Firm will massively upscale its battery production strategy, and introduce new single-cell format to make EVs cheaper

www.autocar.co.uk

This is just more verification of Tesla becoming a major entity in the world.

As the world becomes more Tesla-tastic, at plaid speed, a lot of Elon'esque terms will become everyday language. And the people will rejoice.

 

[ZeApelido]

There is a slightly less than zero chance that the casting yields are 10%. Probably -8% chance.
Trash should stay where it belongs: it the nether regions of the interwebs.

Conversely, there is a slightly greater than 100% chance the casting yields are greater than 100%.

Bullish.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

CNBC front of app. Top story.....

TESLA SOLAR WILL BURN YOUR CHILDREN ALIVE!!!​

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

It infuriates me how they question Cathie, who has a proven track record of success, yet none of them EVER question any of their bear guests (ex: Gordo) after years of failed predictions.

I wonder why - could they or their puppet masters perhaps, possibly, have an agenda which is slightly different from serving the public and delivering actual news?
FaceBORG has a lot of success pimping out their users to advertisers. Did they really invent that? Or did (parts) of mainstream media? Perhaps not only to advertisers but also to other powerful organizations, wishing to get a certain message out there. And stay there.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Lol....big push down followed promptly by 4pm FUD. I don't think this will stick. Too much money out there!

 

[Singuy]

CNBC front of app. Top story.....

TESLA SOLAR WILL BURN YOUR CHILDREN ALIVE!!!​

Sounds like a feature

 

[Pras]

CNBC front of app. Top story.....

TESLA SOLAR WILL BURN YOUR CHILDREN ALIVE!!!​

Lora Kolodny is on a streak! One FUD piece every other day.

 

[MXWing]

CNBC front of app. Top story.....

TESLA SOLAR WILL BURN YOUR CHILDREN ALIVE!!!​

How to sign up? Early [email protected] ?

 

[buttershrimp]

So similar amount it went up last Monday and less than it went up Monday March 1st without Ark's price target? A far cry from the 20% people were trying to convince us over the weekend.

20%? That's bananas... I was predicting something above 30%. After all, some of us have reputations on the line.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Yeah, every bootloader is unique to the chip, memory, board layout, OS...etc and is a must in order to add real features to devices as changes are always necessary at the memory level or you end up with a huge mess of code, poor performance and very buggy behaviors.

And just to be very clear, I believe (and I'm biased of course) that this is a such a huge lead for Tesla. Being so vertically integrated allows for vast innovation with crazy fast turn around times. I've always described Tesla as a playground for engineers which leads to the eventual conclusion that all engineers will want to work there to make things that are simply not possible anywhere else. And even if they were, you'll never catch Tesla as their process is 'move as fast as you can, no roadblocks and access to the highest leadership whenever you need it'.

I know that Elon dislikes moats, but this is a big one.
Yes you may be biased - that doesn't mean you are wrong.

So not only did you work for Tesla but made something really difficult part of Teslas core tech stack. Huge respect! Hope you join again someday.

 

[Opus BC fan]

It infuriates me how they question Cathie, who has a proven track record of success, yet none of them EVER question any of their bear guests (ex: Gordo) after years of failed predictions.

OT
I've always assumed that it was the good old boys club engaged in sexism (masquerading as an intellectual discussion). Mansplaners are very threatened by intelligent articulate women.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Looking at the Max Pain charts there is a huge spike at 700 for this week. Combine that with Curt's post. If I had sold those options I would be happy to push TSLA down all week. And would jump at the chance if macros dumped to make sure the TSLA multiplier was stretched to the max.

View attachment 647079

Over the years, I have discovered Max Pain has more power on the amount of money left at the end of the day than my wife out for shopping.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Didn't see it posted, speculation from Now You Know / Zac & Jesse youtube channel that Model S & X to be made in Berlin (possibly Shanghai) in November.

Related to Tilburg job losses, later delivery date in Europe & new ways of making Model S & X (structural battery or large castings?)

I'm not convinced, probably just shipping S & X as whole cars as made differently or another way to transport. Any changes to USA/EU tariffs?

Link to youtube at timestamp

 

[elasalle]

Didn't see it posted, speculation from Now You Know / Zac & Jesse youtube channel that Model S & X to be made in Berlin (possibly Shanghai) in November.

Related to Tilburg job losses & new ways of making Model S & X (structural battery or large castings?)

Link to youtube at timestamp

Would be better if the produced the Model 3 as well (rather than S/X) , and some new hatch back model.

 

[2daMoon]

Didn't see it posted, speculation from Now You Know / Zac & Jesse youtube channel that Model S & X to be made in Berlin (possibly Shanghai) in November.

Related to Tilburg job losses, later delivery date in Europe & new ways of making Model S & X (structural battery or large castings?)

I'm not convinced, probably just shipping S & X as whole cars as made differently or another way to transport. Any changes to USA/EU tariffs?

Link to youtube at timestamp

My bet would be the late delivery date is so they may put as many S & X on the boat from Fremont to Europe to deliver them all in one swell foop. Good for Euro Q4 delivery numbers, giving El Gordo a restless night's sleep, etc.

 

[Electroman]

The incident I cite, as I specifically said in the post you quoted as replying to, was like 12-15 months ago, with his suggesting just regular FSD well before the new beta

I don't know what you are talking, but there was no FSD beta before Nov last year. So how could he or anyone would have made a video claiming FSD one year ago? I have seen Omar's and many other videos. They are all genuine, but again it is possible some of them are not posting the ones that fails.

 

[Mike Smith]

Ignoring energy is really strange, ARK can't say that they think it is unlikely to amount to much so ignore it. That is the whole point of using a Monte Carlo model - uncertainty in beliefs and outcomes can be modeled.

Let's not pretend we don't know why ARK didn't include entire business segments in their estimate. ARK doesn't benefit from being accurate, they benefit from being right. If in 2025 TSLA is:

$1000: ARK was wrong
$2500: ARK was wrong
$3000: ARK was right
$5000: ARK was right (even though they were actually wrong)
$7,000: ARK was right (even though they were actually completely wrong)
$20,000: ARK was right (even though they were actually completely, wildly wrong)

If the SP starts running ahead of what they projected, they can simply raise their PT to reflect this, and still be credited with being right. In fact this is what has actually happened. Their 2019 PT for 2024 was proving to be way too low, so they are now increasing the price target to reflect this, but are still getting full credit for being right. Setting the PT as low as possible is in ARK's interest, and openly omitting entire business segments is the obvious way to do it without lying.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Todays FUD...

View attachment 647016

Well, as long as VW can continue to buy a good fraction of VW EVs, why not?