Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

Because if Fremont is supporting European sales then without an increase in volume you end up with 2 factories at <50k/yr production which may not be feasible?

Unless you are taking issue with the colloquial use of "100k", in which case that just seems like quibbling.

Refresh plus lower prices enabled by no tariffs/trans Atlantic shipping/re assembly should enable significantly more demand.

Hergestellt in Deutschland would probably increase demand as well. Last year it was 57k.

Tesla now says 2 shifts are necessary. Just don't let S/X wither on the vine without significant updates.

 

[RobStark]

Two lines of evidence:



1. Battery day had 100 GWh in 2022 and 3 TWh by 2030 or perhaps a year earlier (if everything goes well), assuming an S curve that would put 2025 production at about 1TWh.

2 TWh internally from Tesla plus 1 TWh from partners.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I admire your optimism but what makes you believe we won't pin between 650-680?

All good pushdowns must eventually unwind. I'll take $675 tomorrow. Would be about +30% on these calls if it's right at the open.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Does anyone else find it suspicious that today was mostly a repeat of yesterday? Basically trading sideways most of the day until a huge push down during the last hour.

Except that yesterday's sideways was around +40 rather than break even, so I prefer that.

 

[WattsHappening]

All good pushdowns must eventually unwind. I'll take $675 tomorrow. Would be about +30% on these calls if it's right at the open.

I really wish you good luck and hope you're correct.

I'm actually pretty happy with TSLA's performance today. Just 1x macros, which is much better than when we were increasing by 1x macros but dropping 3-5x. Outside of any specific catalysts, macros are going to win the day more often than not.

 

[RobStark]

Two lines of evidence:



1. Battery day had 100 GWh in 2022 and 3 TWh by 2030 or perhaps a year earlier (if everything goes well), assuming an S curve that would put 2025 production at about 1TWh.

2 TWh internally from Tesla plus 1 TWh from partners.

Count Elon Musk in the "short period of time after Tesla" group. Elon has said that eventually everyone will have full self driving and robotaxis, and that Tesla's edge in self driving will only be temporary.

Specifically, Elon predicted 10 years after Tesla achieves FSD L5 will be ubiquitous.

 

[deshkart]

Andrej Karpathy on the visionary AI in Tesla's autonomous driving - Andrej Karpathy on Tesla AI

"a lot of work is now on data curation and not on writing code.. there are only 30 top level tasks "

 

[lafrisbee]

Other than being (to a currently unknown but non zero degree) cheaper per mile (and presumably quieter with no driver) there is no substantive difference in NYC between Uber/Lyft today and RT tomorrow.

And we've already established COST isn't a factor here since these folks choose to spend massively large costs on car ownership in a place it's incredibly expensive to own a car.

So unless you think the PRIMARY reason people spend crazy $ in NYC to own their own vehicle is "So I don't have to listen to a driver ask me how my day was" your argument does not appear to hold up.


My expectation is RTs will replace:

Near 100% of human operated taxis and rideshares (I suspect there'll remain niche high-end providers where they WANT a human driver to haul luggage and provide other assistance to a passenger but otherwise RTs got ya covered)

Some quite high, but significantly less than 100%, of second and third household cars that only see occasional use today. This will over time reduce demand for both used, and eventually new, vehicles- but it'll take some years for that to build up.

Some quite small, but non-0%, of PRIMARY/only vehicles in a household.



Now, between these 3 items that IS going to long term reduce the total # of new cars bought each year.... I just don't find some of the more exuberant estimates of how much of a reduction especially credible.

Damn tar!
The landscape will be monetarily, that is true. But the other landscape will be the convenience of Robo-taxis over all other current public transportation options. Tesla robo-fleet will be much more convenient safer cheaper and dependable than all the other public transportation systems. And even better than personal ownership
Look at it this way. I just thought of this. It will be the equivalent of having a very inexpensive on-demand limo service...but better. Owning a car will be seen as luddites.
People own cars now because they clearly understand that having a car is better than the current options. Tesla is going to be better than a car in the majority of people's view.

 

[MC3OZ]

I disagree. One of the reasons people avoid using taxis/uber is the human element. You have to get in some stranger's car, deal with their quirks, body odor, talking, bad driving etc. That last one get's me. If a driver isn't smooth I will get car sick, and most taxi drivers seem to have a problem with their legs and can't drive without constantly rocking the car forward and slowing down. Women also are often wary for several various reasons. Robotaxis should also be far more common so waiting times should be lower, at least in the mid-long term.

Of course some will still want their own car, but RT will open up a sizable chunk of the current market.

Those too young or old to drive are also likey RT customers.

RT usage instead of private car ownership is likely to be a generational shift.
Young passengers will start using RTs before they can drive and definitely by the age of our 14-15. Parents will know that children are safer with this mode of transport.

When they grow up using RTs they are less likely to want to own a car.

For older generations saving money will be a driver for abandoning private car ownership.
New car or overseas holiday? Some will take the holiday.

 

[RobStark]

This is why if FSD reaches Level 5 within a couple of years, the game is over. Tesla becomes to the auto industry what SpaceX is to the rocket industry.

When it comes to space launch services price is only factor. Or at least the overwhelming factor. Availability and reliability is also a factor.

When it comes to the auto industry there are many factors beyond cost. I like having mobile storage e.g.

 

[Christine69420]

For all of us when we hear FUD about the build quality of Tesla cars:

- "I am actually very impressed of this car"

The repair man looking over Bjørn "Teslabjørn" Nyland's 7 year old Model S after it has been driven 350 000 kilometres.

- "I think this car can be on the road for ... 10 or 20 years more - it should not be a problem"

Yes he got his original Millenium Falcon - his first Tesla - back and will use it while waiting for the new Model S he recently ordered.

 

[ninpb]

AH feel good. My friend just leapfrogged me as a bigger Tesla fanboy. In the span of 4ish months, went from 0 to 4 Tesla products: Y, insurance, solar and powerwall.

He has to wait for turn on but 4 months from order to install of solar and powerwall is amazing right?! So Cal.

 

[Tslynk67]

Today seems like re-rebalancing. Recent favorites like commodities, small cap value, reopening (casino), are falling faster than large tech. Interesting how market’s mood swings in a matter of weeks.

I noticed in my own watchlish that it was stay-at-home stocks that were green: Peloton, Zoom, Netflix, Amazon, etc.

I think the general view is that auto suffered with C19, so maybe Tesla is bundled with that for the moment. Good P&D plus earnings would change that narrative as it did last year

 

[Tslynk67]

All good pushdowns must eventually unwind. I'll take $675 tomorrow. Would be about +30% on these calls if it's right at the open.

You're buying $700's, today I sold a pile of $707.50's

 

[mblakele]

New podcast with Andrej Karpathy. There's some Tesla content starting at about 18-min. Nothing earthshaking so far, but useful context for folks who'd like to know more about NNs and Andrej's experience at Tesla.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1374450544475992064

The Robot Brains Podcast with Pieter Abbeel

In each episode of The Robot Brains podcast, renowned artificial intelligence researcher, professor and entrepreneur Pieter Abbeel meets the brilliant minds attempting to build robots with brains. Pieter is joined by leading experts in AI Robotics from all over the world as he explores how far...

www.therobotbrains.ai

 

[Tslynk67]

For all of us when we hear FUD about the build quality of Tesla cars:

- "I am actually very impressed of this car"

The repair man looking over Bjørn "Teslabjørn" Nyland's 7 year old Model S after it has been driven 350 000 kilometres.

- "I think this car can be on the road for ... 10 or 20 years more - it should not be a problem"

Yes he got his original Millenium Falcon - his first Tesla - back and will use it while waiting for the new Model S he recently ordered.

Bjørn, what a legend, sheeeeet!

Love that guy, devoured his videos back in 2013 when he was one of the few making good content.

If any of the youngsters here don't know him, go watch some, he's funny and informative.

 

[lklundin]

Just wanted to state that all this quarter's ships from Shanghai to the UK/EU have arrived
- this is relevant, because a large container ship has run aground in the Suez canal, currently blocking all traffic...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1374445914169831427

 

[RobStark]

For all of us when we hear FUD about the build quality of Tesla cars:

- "I am actually very impressed of this car"

The repair man looking over Bjørn "Teslabjørn" Nyland's 7 year old Model S after it has been driven 350 000 kilometres.

- "I think this car can be on the road for ... 10 or 20 years more - it should not be a problem"

Yes he got his original Millenium Falcon - his first Tesla - back and will use it while waiting for the new Model S he recently ordered.

Bjorn's mechanic says repair cost for Model S are roughly similar to Mercedes and other premium cars.

I have never had a mechanic criticize my brand choice or car choice as being less reliable than average or much worse than average.

1) He is making money servicing my car.

2) To criticize my car choice implicitly criticizes me. What Kind of idiot buys ....... A friend of mine loves British cars. Jaguar, Range Rover, and Lotus. Never been told his cars were crap.

 

[Christine69420]

Bjørn, what a legend, sheeeeet!

Love that guy, devoured his videos back in 2013 when he was one of the few making good content.

If any of the youngsters here don't know him, go watch some, he's funny and informative.

He was very useful for me too when getting my first Tesla. The online User Manual really should link to some of his videos.

 

[Knightshade]

Damn tar!
The landscape will be monetarily, that is true. But the other landscape will be the convenience of Robo-taxis over all other current public transportation options. Tesla robo-fleet will be much more convenient safer cheaper and dependable than all the other public transportation systems.

Speaking to NYC anyway, RTs are unlikely to be any of those things (MAYBE safer?) by a significant degree compared to walking for short distances (free, and the city is incredibly walkable) in decent weather, or the subway for long distances (massively faster given how bad traffic is and still pretty cheap too).

And yet nearly half the households there own their own cars despite parking being insanely expensive, traffic being horrendous, insurance being crazy, and existing rideshare, taxi, and public transit options being cheaper and in general faster and more convenient..

People really like owning their own cars.

And even better than personal ownership
Look at it this way. I just thought of this. It will be the equivalent of having a very inexpensive on-demand limo service...but better. Owning a car will be seen as luddites.
People own cars now because they clearly understand that having a car is better than the current options. Tesla is going to be better than a car in the majority of people's view.

FWIW when I actually lived in NY I didn't own a car.

I think the folks who do are nuts.

Yet it's nearly half the households there That's part of why I'm so dubious of the "RTs will mostly eliminate personal car ownership" argument.

Even in arguably the single best situation in the entire country for people TODAY to not own their own car- nearly half of all households do so anyway