Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[asburgers]

Hopefully that never happens! The problem is obviously known for a long time; I think there's a lot smarter people than the both of us out there managing things while we twiddle our thumbs on a internet forum pontificating!

I find it best to enjoy the ride that the heroes are doing like Musk and pay it forward in the future.

I'm paying back to the company by purchasing another vehicle if the stock hits 1K in the next 6 months. It might even be a 2 +2 seater.

 

[JusRelax]

Does

This is pretty neat. They're not looking to convert btc payments into fiat - accumulating btc for Mars currency?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1374619379929772034

Does anybody find it weird that you can't pay a plaid+ with bitcoin? Seems like it's only the Plaid +... I wonder if it has something to do with the longer timeframe for Plaid +

EDIT: I beieve this is because all bitcoin payments are final (no refunds). Thus, anything that is a longer-term reservation (Semi, Roadster, Cybertruck, Plaid+) do not allow purchase in bitcoin.

 

[15Peter20]

This share price is like war. Ages of tedium punctuated by short periods of terror.

 

[asburgers]

This share price is like war. Ages of tedium punctuated by short periods of terror.

I am living the terror of holding mid-long term options where the CEO tries to convince people to not buy the (already depressed) stock on TV. (Looking at you, Karp).

 

[FireMedic]

OT sorry, I had to share a conversation I had with my 7 YO last night. As we were listening to the Andrej Karpathy podcast about AI/FSD stuff and my son said...

”So the FSD will eventually be like using a calculator for difficult math... like, that much better than humans? So nobody will really do complicated driving themselves, right?”

I had no words. Maybe it’s my simple mind. I hadn’t really heard that analogy; but it seemed quite appropriate.
Bullish.

Way OT:
Last night my son told me he wants his 8th birthday (4/13) to be a Tesla theme. We have a flag, a Tesla cake, and there will be a “MODELXMAS” show.

Input welcome.

 

[WattsHappening]

In for one more Friday $700c @ $2.75

Now lets hope that's the bottom and we can offload these things!

Still pulling for you Mule.

But I'm having a hard time seeing value in these. 2.5 trading days left, macros working against us, MMs with incentive to keep the SP at $680 through Friday. I also expect TSLA is in a quiet period before quarter end, so I don't expect any market-moving statements the rest of the month. Still time left, but I can't help but think that @Lycanthrope (I recall he wrote $707.50c contracts) will get the better of the two sides of this trade.

 

[insaneoctane]

Kudos to you option traders who can see the Matrix. This week is a perfect example of how I see the TSLA stock price....I’ll stick with my old faithful...HODL.

(Geeks, be sure to ignore the implied time travel)

 

[WattsHappening]

OT sorry, I had to share a conversation I had with my 7 YO last night. As we were listening to the Andrej Karpathy podcast about AI/FSD stuff and my son said...

”So the FSD will eventually be like using a calculator for difficult math... like, that much better than humans? So nobody will really do complicated driving themselves, right?”

I had no words. Maybe it’s my simple mind. I hadn’t really heard that analogy; but it seemed quite appropriate.
Bullish.

Way OT:
Last night my son told me he wants his 8th birthday (4/13) to be a Tesla theme. We have a flag, a Tesla cake, and there will be a “MODELXMAS” show.

Input welcome.

Love it! You're clearly raising your son properly.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Still pulling you for Mule.

But I'm having a hard time seeing value in these. 2.5 trading days left, macros working against us, MMs with incentive to keep the SP at $680 through Friday. I also expect TSLA is in a quiet period before quarter end, so I don't expect any market-moving statements the rest of the month. Still time left, but I can't help but think that @Lycanthrope (I recall he wrote $707.50c contracts) will get the better of the two sides of this trade.

Mules holding out hope for the Elon Email to come out before Friday

Any quiet period don't mean diddly squat to Elon. He knows sending out an email to the company will be leaked within hours. Now if we don't get any leaked email before Q1 P/D numbers are out everyone should hold on to their butts.........cause that'll mean Tesla wildly missed estimates for Q1 or blew them out of the water lol

 

[asburgers]

Still pulling you for Mule.

But I'm having a hard time seeing value in these. 2.5 trading days left, macros working against us, MMs with incentive to keep the SP at $680 through Friday. I also expect TSLA is in a quiet period before quarter end, so I don't expect any market-moving statements the rest of the month. Still time left, but I can't help but think that @Lycanthrope (I recall he wrote $707.50c contracts) will get the better of the two sides of this trade.

I would sell $700c but I don't have it in my heart to do that. So I sold $660p instead.

 

[WattsHappening]

Mules holding out hope for the Elon Email to come out before Friday

Any quiet period don't mean diddly squat to Elon. He knows sending out an email to the company will be leaked within hours. Now if we don't get any leaked email before Q1 P/D numbers are out everyone should hold on to their butts.........cause that'll mean Tesla wildly missed estimates for Q1 or blew them out of the water lol

TruDat.

 

[Knightshade]

All payment choices suggest that the buyer choose to use the payment which they believe will appreciate the least, no? Which is most likely to be worth less in the future, $, BTC, or TSLA? I would personally recommend using $....

Even better- use someone ELSES $ at 2% or less.

Then repay it with inflation devalued $ in the future.

Allegedly there's a few countries where buying a Tesla with BTC would not be taxable on the gains, if that's true and Tesla opens BTC ordering there, that MIGHT make sense- but otherwise I can't imagine why anybody would trade a supposedly "deflationary store of value" for a car rather than getting an at/near inflation cash loan .

It's more free press for Tesla, but it'd require a lot of weirdness to have any material impact on anything.

 

[JustMe]

Still pulling for you Mule.

But I'm having a hard time seeing value in these. 2.5 trading days left, macros working against us, MMs with incentive to keep the SP at $680 through Friday. I also expect TSLA is in a quiet period before quarter end, so I don't expect any market-moving statements the rest of the month. Still time left, but I can't help but think that @Lycanthrope (I recall he wrote $707.50c contracts) will get the better of the two sides of this trade.

You’re being too pessimistic. It would be a piece of cake to put these options in the money by buying up a few million shares.

I confess to gambling this morning buying a few 8/28 $680 calls on the dip.

 

[mekberg]

but otherwise I can't imagine why anybody would trade a supposedly "deflationary store of value" for a car rather than getting an at/near inflation cash loan .

It's more free press for Tesla, but it'd require a lot of weirdness to have any material impact on anything.

You can be BTC rich and cash poor.

 

[asburgers]

So we're probably about 3 weeks or so from the Q1 earnings release. Off the top of my head:

Possible Bullish News
- China production comes out better than expected supported by MY ramp
- China supercharger factory production ramps
- Market finally recognizes value of crypto gain
- Positive updates on semi development
- Positive updates on FSD (V9) release (albeit delayed a quarter)
- TSLA provides guidance to help investors price in energy projects (ie. Angleton)
- Discloses they purchased additional land in Shanghai for expansion
- Clarifies that casting machinery (and production) was not affected by fire
- India updates
- M2 development update

Bearish
- Berlin slower than expected??
- Silicon shortage
- Foam shortage
- Price increases due to battery input material cost increases
- Fed screws up auctions (2, 5Y today + 7Y tomorrow) and/or does nothing else
- Biden EV plan underwhelms and only includes unionized manufacturers
- Ford unveils a previously undisclosed hidden rotisserie compartment in the rear of the Mach E.

 

[thx1139]

What new countries if any did Tesla start selling vehicles in this quarter? Or Tesla made significant changes to models available or significant price change.

 

[Unpilot]

Your a drug dealer.

And a good one as I bit for some 700's at 2.7.....and down they go.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Troy Teslike used to be a regular here and devotes a lot of time to estimating deliveries with pretty good results.

https://twitter.com/troyteslike?lang=en

@Troy also maintains a Patreon listserv where he posts updates earlier than on Twitter, and with far more insight into his methodology. It costs $5 a month.

 

[FireMedic]

Looking for TESLA party favors for aforementioned bday party. Found these for $12. How do I not already have them? FML

 

[ZeApelido]

”So the FSD will eventually be like using a calculator for difficult math... like, that much better than humans? So nobody will really do complicated driving themselves, right?”

What's funny is even given the amazing potential of deep neural networks, try to build one to do something as "simple" as division and you'll be tearing your hair out.