Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[asburgers]

For me, the promised expansion of FSD Beta (if it ever comes to pass) has a real downside potential. Maybe Elon should have kept the testing internal and released just carefully screened excerpts. Letting it out in the wild and allowing people to post their own videos of its failings isn't confidence inspiring and that feeds the FUD machine.

I think the videos have been really good and should have raised the probabilities of success (as it did with ARK). However, forecasting that FSD would be ready in Q1 (during the Q4 call) and the aggressive button timeline gave critics enough ammunition to perpetuate the narrative that they are having problems with development.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

For me, the promised expansion of FSD Beta (if it ever comes to pass) has a real downside potential. Maybe Elon should have kept the testing internal and released just carefully screened excerpts. Letting it out in the wild and allowing people to post their own videos of its failings isn't confidence inspiring and that feeds the FUD machine.

Completely disagree. The FSD Beta videos have been a net positive by far especially since there have been no accidents. The more people and the more videos that get posted, the more Wall St has to start accepting the fact sooner rather than later. Will V9 be perfect? Not at all. But considering there's been multiple vides of 8.2 Beta going through very complex situation in SF make it impossible to ignore at this point

 

[Motor Mouth]

Completely disagree. The FSD Beta videos have been a net positive by far especially since there have been no accidents. The more people and the more videos that get posted, the more Wall St has to start accepting the fact sooner rather than later. Will V9 be perfect? Not at all. But considering there's been multiple vides of 8.2 Beta going through very complex situation in SF make it impossible to ignore at this point

Agree - and at some point it has to be put out there for people to start getting used to the idea of it. The videos I've seen are certainly more positive than negative.

 

[Krugerrand]

OT sorry, I had to share a conversation I had with my 7 YO last night. As we were listening to the Andrej Karpathy podcast about AI/FSD stuff and my son said...

”So the FSD will eventually be like using a calculator for difficult math... like, that much better than humans? So nobody will really do complicated driving themselves, right?”

I had no words. Maybe it’s my simple mind. I hadn’t really heard that analogy; but it seemed quite appropriate.
Bullish.

Way OT:
Last night my son told me he wants his 8th birthday (4/13) to be a Tesla theme. We have a flag, a Tesla cake, and there will be a “MODELXMAS” show.

Input welcome.

Safe to say you won’t be needing that DNA test now. Clearly, he’s not yours. He appears to be a keeper, regardless.

 

[Krugerrand]

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Um. Why is his hand down the short shorts?

 

[JustMe]

Bad day! No biscuit

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Agreed. I guess a more accurate comment would be that it should be the responsibility of the press to fact check, just like the auto manufacturer should be truthful. Why are we always the ones doing the legwork???

Heard the saying in the early 10's: Journalism is dead.
Well, ... it has reincarnated and took a job doing paid programming.

It's like an arms race, like Tour de France: Who pays best? The doping specialist and teams benefitting from victory at all cost - or the doping controllers?

We investor activists are the real journalists now. Because we actually value and benefit from the truth.
What we lack in reach we make up for in depth.

The fact that we are thriving shows how factually wrong and deceitful the programming regarding Tesla, TSLA and Elon is.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Bad day! No biscuit

Actually someone's stepping in to buy or limit further downside in the past 30 mins compared to the Nasdaq. We went from down 3.5X multiple, nearing 4X to only 2.5X. The stock pretty much flat lined in the past 30 mins while the Nasdaq fell further

 

[Singuy]

Actually someone's stepping in to buy or limit further downside in the past 30 mins compared to the Nasdaq. We went from down 3.5X multiple, nearing 4X to only 2.5X. The stock pretty much flat lined in the past 30 mins while the Nasdaq fell further

Yup, not bad.

Hate to be the guy on Cnbc changing headlines every 30 mins for GME.

 

[EVMeister]

$700 tomorrow?

 

[JustMe]

$700 tomorrow?

Are you serious? We haven’t seen that kind of reversal since . . . Monday

 

[Mo City]

Sorry but that was a garbage note by that analyst. It's BS to say you're keeping your one year 1200 PT(Which he's had since Jan) while at the same time saying there will be significantly cheaper entry points over the next year. If he puts that much weight into the Cybertruck , which Tesla has already telegraphed as not being in full production until early next year, that it can cause the stock to go significantly down from these THESE levels.....well then I don't put much weight into his analysis at all....even if he is a Bull.

It isn't garbage at all. He's just reaffirming TSLA will soar within ~12 months but choppy results in the short term could cause the market to punish the stock more than it already has.

This is what I've believed could happen since December. I also suspect the uncertainty is why the forecast was vague on the Q4 earnings call.

It's also why I bought Jan 2023 LEAPS earlier and resisted the siren call of earlier expiration dates.

 

[Nocturnal]

'You can now buy a Tesla with bitcoin,' CEO Elon Musk said. But it could mean a big tax bill

The automaker said its customers can now purchase one of its electric cars using bitcoin as payment. Here's what that transaction would mean for your taxes.

www.cnbc.com

CNBC brining in the hard hitting news. "You have to pay taxes on your capital gains".

That also seems like a financially terrible idea compared to a 2% car loan- unless you believe TSLA isn't going to increase in value more than 2% a year....

Of course, depending on your financial plan. I'm a big fan of low interest debt vs selling investments but we all have a point where it makes sense to trim etc.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Well today's little leveraging exercise is going well.....lol! Started out doubling down on Friday $700c and ended the day with just as many 4/1 700c's. A bargain at $4.90.

If this 47th "rotation to value" unwinds as quickly as the previous 46, we'll be in great shape. Otherwise.....I can continue about 4 more weeks and still break even if that's the kind of fight these clowns want!

Trying to figure out exactly how today's EIA crude oil report could be twisted into anything positive to spike WTI 6%. Bloomberg was telling me the "analysts" see "signs of demand recovery". I see swelling crude stockpiles and a looming European lockdown. We shall see if this all unwinds dramatically!

 

[st_lopes]

So I guess we’re just not going to talk about the near vertical drop once again at open. Getting real tired of always going down. Deliveries better be good.

Same feeling I get whenever the Habs go on a winning streak... just to realize they don't have the depth for the playoffs. At least with TSLA, I know it'll EVENTUALLY win something.

Sorry I meant to say is there a way of getting an accurate read of whether deliveries will beat estimates? Or profits? I’m sure the options folks on this thread have their black art methods.

@Troy is likely one of your best sources for that; definitely worth following him on Twitter or contributing to Patreon.

So last year they sent out Q1 P&D report on the 2nd which was midweek. 2nd lands on a Friday this year so guessing it will be around then?

The 2nd is also a holiday with a market close. Hence why options contracts expire on Thursday next week.

 

[Krugerrand]

Porsche has said 200kW is optional not 270kW.

Porsche says LG promised 350kW charging capable cells by Taycan launch but only 270kW cells available at launch. Moving forward VW Group will no longer buy LG cells. The rest of the architecture is ready to go.

I can't find a map that filters only 350kW charging stations but their are at least 100 CCS 350kW chargers in the US and another 100+ in Europe. Only hardcore EV nerds knew that Porsche said 350kW was coming. Said nerds would know 270kW is what is available.

Ah, so LG’s fault. Okay, let’s pass the buck around a bit. Zero reason for Porsche to have obtained cells for testing trials, huh? Established OEMs just take their supplier’s word for it. Ok, then.

 

[CanadaEV]

'You can now buy a Tesla with bitcoin,' CEO Elon Musk said. But it could mean a big tax bill

The automaker said its customers can now purchase one of its electric cars using bitcoin as payment. Here's what that transaction would mean for your taxes.

www.cnbc.com

CNBC brining in the hard hitting news. "You have to pay taxes on your capital gains".


Of course, depending on your financial plan. I'm a big fan of low interest debt vs selling investments but we all have a point where it makes sense to trim etc.

They forgot to mention the important detail that the government is depreciating their currency, and will tax any measures you take to preserve the value of your earnings

 

[Curt Renz]

A very credible Tesla bull (Alexander Potter) says we may need to fasten our seat belts for 2020 but it will be worth it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1374765386298765316

Alexander Potter has a $1200 12-month price target for TSLA, but understands it could be a bumpy rider before getting there. Of course Cathie Wood looks even further out (4 years) with her $3000 price target.

Unlike those two, most Wall Street analysts primarily study recent hard data, and are uncomfortable with determining the long-term present value of a company undergoing exponential growth. They must justify their decisions with evidence presented to their bosses. We may hear from some of them after the Q1 deliveries report, and more after the Q1 earnings report. If those reports are good, they may come closer to joining Potter and Wood.

Bosses in all spheres demand evidence in the reports from their subordinates. Like this:

 

[lklundin]

The "shredder" described in the 2nd picture is not correct. The two ramps going up are actually just unused conveyors that currently feed to nothing present beneath them. They are probably used in the past to feed cardboard or paper into a horizontal baler. I build equipment used on horizontal balers and shredders.

If you look on google maps, the 2nd reddit picture is of the scrap yard located on the south side of the Fremont factory while the Gigapress is on the Northside of the Fremont factory. It isn't that hard to realize that the scrap aluminum doesn't travel that far just to be stored so likely that is from another source of the factory.

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Thanks very much for this very helpful and entertaining analysis!

On the topic of the GigaPress, someone with a reasonable insight in both the engineering and the economics went through quite a diverse set of sources and made a video with their estimate of the cost of one gigacasting, with some rather bullish findings. Their English pronunciation is not perfect and while the presentation is interesting enough, I will just post the estimated, main numbers (assuming among other things a 10% scrap rate):
1) 7/8 of the cost per unit is the cost of the raw aluminum,
2) depending on wage level (China vs US) and some other variables, unit cost is in the range 167$ - 273$.

If these numbers are anywhere near realistic, I think we can expect Tesla to try to Gigacast as much as possible...

 

[MC3OZ]

I love dividends, but not more than the mission. Once the world has transitioned to sustainable transportation all bets are off.

Maybe when they eventually decide to pay dividends, they can pay them in Bitcoin, shorts then need to purchase Bitcoin.