Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

Here's what's in Biden's infrastructure proposal

Now that his massive coronavirus relief package is law, President Joe Biden is laying out his next big proposal: A roughly $2 trillion plan for improving the nation's infrastructure and shifting to greener energy over the next 8 years.

www.cnn.com

Biden is also proposing to accelerate the shift to electric vehicles with a $174 billion investment in the electric vehicle market. It includes giving consumers rebates and tax incentives to buy American-made electric vehicles and establishing grant and incentive programs to build a national network of 500,000 charging stations by 2030. It would also replace 50,000 diesel transit vehicles and electrify at least 20% of yellow school buses.

If it's just rebates for American made, not sure if the Mustang Mach-E qualifies? (Made in Mexico?)

To take a dump over all our USMCA/WTO trade rule obligations would be more Trumpian than Trump.

Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Germany would win the right to install countervailing duties on American goods.

Somehow I doubt this language over subsidies for only Made in the USA vehicles makes it in the final language of the law.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

....This includes launching ARPA-C to develop new methods for reducing emissions and building climate resilience, as well as expanding across-the-board funding for climate research. In addition to a $5 billion increase in funding for other climate-focused research, his plan will invest $15 billion in demonstration projects for climate R&D priorities, including utility-scale energy storage, carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, advanced nuclear, rare earth element separations, floating offshore wind, biofuel/bioproducts, quantum computing, and electric vehicles, as well as strengthening U.S. technological leadership in these areas in global markets.

The speech has a little bit for everyone since that's how you do it in gov't, but I've been pleasantly surprised with what we've been hearing out the DoE(who will implement much of this) so far. For a bunch of politicians reliant on centralized control for their existence, they sure do have a laser focus on storage as the key to scaling sustainability efforts.

There are some very simple regulatory(free!) moves that can be made to achieve a lot of these goals, and the overall agenda sure feels like it's gaining traction.

Mandates for charging infrastructure.
Mandates for grid level storage to be integrated across utilities not solely forced into wind/solar PPAs.

What we need now is something like an "Energy Bill of Rights" to protect normal people and commercial users from whatever insane shenanigans are coming from the corporate and IOU utilities.

The biggest advantage Tesla and the sustainability agenda have is the simple fact these also provide savings. None of the real proven stuff "costs" anything, and that will naturally float to the top of legislation as things like carbon capture and advanced nuclear fade into the background.

 

[jeewee3000]

Spoiler: previous comments

No, not only is it not universal, I am not aware of any driving jurisdiction in the USA or Canada where drivers should negotiate the right-of-way at an intersection with each other. Because the person who has the right-of-way is determined by who came to a stop at the intersection first. If it was tie, then the position of the vehicles relative to one another determines right-of-way. The right-of-way exists without any need for driver's to negotiate or gift it and the negotiating or gifting of it is almost always the result of a driver that doesn't even know the basic rules of the road.

If someone tries to "gift" the right-of-way to me, when I do not have the right-of-way, I ignore them. If they don't take the right-of-way even though they have had generous opportunities to do so, I will go, generally quickly enough and taking a path such that I always have an out should I see they have decided to finally go. I'm not going to sit there for 5 minutes if they are not taking their right-of-way.

If I ever see an AI driven vehicle signal that it's yielding the right of way to a vehicle that doesn't have the right of way, I will know the Ai developers didn't properly filter which human drivers were used to train the neural net.

Spoiler: previous comments

Your state may differ, but I had to re-learn Rules of the Road etc. when I moved to Alaska and had to take a driver test. At that time, I learned :

ONE NEVER has the right of way. Rather, the rules specifically present situations where one must yield the right of way.

I’m guessing that somewhere along the line, litigation must have reached some breaking point and thus the above ThroughTheLookingGlass situation developed.

Is Alaska ahead of its time? No, the world is not that LookingGlass-y.

That's exactly what a right-of-way is! Saying one car must yield to another is granting the right-of-way to the other car. The right-of-way is relative to that one other car only - it doesn't mean the car with the right-of-way doesn't have to yield to other traffic! You are splitting hairs that absolutely don't need to be split.

As an attorney specializing in - among other things - traffic law, it's hilarious reading the range of opinions regarding something as important as 'right of way'. Lives depend on it.

I won't be helpful and provide insights, though. That would be lead us too far OT. Carry on .

 

[mejojo]

As an attorney specializing in - among other things - traffic law, it's hilarious reading the range of opinions regarding something as important as 'right of way'. Lives depend on it.

I won't be helpful and provide insights, though. That would be lead us too far OT. Carry on .

 

[uujjj2]

To take a dump over all our USMCA/WTO trade rule obligations would be more Trumpian than Trump.

Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Germany would win the right to install countervailing duties on American goods.

Somehow I doubt this language over subsidies for only Made in the USA vehicles makes it in the final language of the law.

Right now, the way the EV tax credit is done, the popular American made EVs (Tesla, Chevy Bolt, Nissan Leaf) are excluded while all the imported EVs are included. This is just plain stupid.

Also, Democrats don't exactly love our free trade deals. Most of them were passed with mostly Republican votes, supported by the Chamber of Commerce and opposed by unions and environmentalists.

 

[MP3Mike]

Right now, the way the EV tax credit is done, the popular American made EVs (Tesla, Chevy Bolt, Nissan Leaf) are excluded while all the imported EVs are included. This is just plain stupid.

I'm pretty sure the Nissan Leaf still qualifies for the EV tax credit...

 

[willow_hiller]

To take a dump over all our USMCA/WTO trade rule obligations would be more Trumpian than Trump.

Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Germany would win the right to install countervailing duties on American goods.

Somehow I doubt this language over subsidies for only Made in the USA vehicles makes it in the final language of the law.

I think the language in this bill will likely mirror S.395 (Electric Cars Act of 2021); and you can see a lot of the policy intent in Jeff Merkley's press release on the bill: Merkley, Welch Introduce Bicameral Legislation to Accelerate Growing Adoption of Electric Vehicles | U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon

"Currently, a federal tax credit of up to $7,500 is available for the purchase of electric vehicles—with federal statute capping the number of eligible vehicles at 200,000 per manufacturer. Several domestic manufactures have already hit the manufacturing cap and consumers seeking to buy those vehicles will no longer receive tax credits. As a result, the law currently creates incentives for electric car buyers to purchase imported vehicles rather than American-made ones."

So in all likelihood, I believe "consumers rebates and tax incentives to buy American-made electric vehicles" literally translates to "lifting the per-manufacturer cap so Tesla and GM can resume benefiting from the program."

 

[Discoducky]

I have this itch that the 4680's are going somewhere either into Plaid S's (that's why they haven't shipped) or into Semi's (that we haven't seen yet) or somehow into Y's (we haven't seen yet).

My thoughts on this are that it seems Kato is putting out a ton and these can't all be for validation. Also, I just don't see why the Plaid S's haven't shipped yet. While I was working on vehicle software, we didn't have any issue that held up production this long, maybe a week at max. So there's that.

Why on earth have those not been delivered? I'm honestly out of ideas other than they have 4680's and Tesla is tweaking BMS+drivetrain, vehicle dynamics, NVH and harmonics while queuing up for a huge delivery push in Q2. Whatever the reason for delaying the Plaid S's, it will be very interesting if we ever hear why.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I have this itch that the 4680's are going somewhere either into Plaid S's (that's why they haven't shipped) or into Semi's (that we haven't seen yet) or somehow into Y's (we haven't seen yet).

My thoughts on this are that it seems Kato is putting out a ton and these can't all be for validation. Also, I just don't see why the Plaid S's haven't shipped yet. While I was working on vehicle software, we didn't have any issue that held up production this long, maybe a week at max. So there's that.

Why on earth have those not been delivered? I'm honestly out of ideas other than they have 4680's and Tesla is tweaking BMS+drivetrain, vehicle dynamics, NVH and harmonics while queuing up for a huge delivery push in Q2. Whatever the reason for delaying the Plaid S's, it will be very interesting if we ever hear why.

Model Y in Berlin will need all the 4680's Kato can make from now till end of year. If they don't get those batteries from Kato there would be no reason to hurry with Berlin because they would not be producing any cars.

There's a potential for 10-20k model y made in Berlin this fall. That's a lot of batteries that can only come from Kato. They are stockpiling.

For some reason they haven't even started building the building for the battery production in Berlin yet.

 

[MP3Mike]

I have this itch that the 4680's are going somewhere either into Plaid S's (that's why they haven't shipped) or into Semi's (that we haven't seen yet) or somehow into Y's (we haven't seen yet).

As has been covered repeatedly. The 4680s, which are rumored to be coming out very slowly, are being stockpiled to use in GigaBerlin in Model Ys. (They haven't even started building the cell production facility in Berlin yet.)

The Semi is using 2170s for now. The S&X LR and Plaid are using 18650s. The S Plaid+ will be using 4680s, but it isn't coming until late this year or next year.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

As has been covered repeatedly. The 4680s, which are rumored to be coming out very slowly, are being stockpiled to use in GigaBerlin in Model Ys. (They haven't even started building the cell production facility in Berlin yet.)

The Semi is using 2170s for now. The S&X LR and Plaid are using 18650s. The S Plaid+ will be using 4680s, but it isn't coming until late this year or next year.

Where are you getting "rumored to be coming out very slowly"? The only leaks/rumors I've seen is that they're about 30% ahead of schedule and according to Tesla themselves as of 2 months ago, they're getting better yields than they expected at this point.

 

[MP3Mike]

Where are you getting "rumored to be coming out very slowly"? The only leaks/rumors I've seen is that they're about 30% ahead of schedule and according to Tesla themselves as of 2 months ago, they're getting better yields than they expected at this point.

From postings in this thread:

9mins in - possible anonymous insider told Warren they are making one Semi's worth of 4680s / day.

The guy in the video said about 5,000 cells, he then said that's only enough for a few cars or one semi.

I would call ~5,000 cells a day very slow.

 

[Mo City]

Do we know what the cost was/is of the current $7,500 program?

200K x $7,500 = $1.5B per OEM.

Only Tesla and GM reached 200K.

 

[Mike Smith]

Tesla (TSLA) could surprise with strong deliveries in Q1 despite production constraints

Tesla (TSLA) might surprise us with deliveries in the first quarter, despite having run into some issues on the production...

electrek.co

'sources are telling us that Tesla is hitting its goals in the US, but they are not letting anyone know what those goals are.'

 

[Words of HABIT]

Portfolio Of The Future Blog: March 31, 2021

Fresh insights into key market dynamics.

ca.rbcwealthmanagement.com

 

[capster]

200K x $7,500 = $1.5B per OEM.

Only Tesla and GM reached 200K.

You’d have to add in the phase out period too. It was half of $7,500 and then half again across two quarters total after 200K was reached, IIRC.

 

[Discoducky]

As has been covered repeatedly. The 4680s, which are rumored to be coming out very slowly, are being stockpiled to use in GigaBerlin in Model Ys. (They haven't even started building the cell production facility in Berlin yet.)

The Semi is using 2170s for now. The S&X LR and Plaid are using 18650s. The S Plaid+ will be using 4680s, but it isn't coming until late this year or next year.

Yeah, I'm aware, but it doesn't add up. Why stockpile perfectly good batteries that will revolutionize the industry. Something about this feels weird. I get that it might be overall beneficial to wait for the release until Berlin is making Y's. But don't see how. I guess time will tell.

Also, I'm very skeptical of 18650's being used for Semi, but also, time will tell.

 

[AimStellar]

Following yesterday's successful debut of jokeswagen.com, I wanted to fill everyone in on a more serious project I am working on.

It's called Shorting Earth, and my goal is to create the definitive list of persons and corporations who are financing the destruction of our planet.

Short selling is legal, but information is power. Armed with knowledge, I believe people will be more targeted with where/whom they place their money.

Mods, I will reserve future posts to a separate thread, but I invite anyone with ideas on how to make this as impact a resource as possible to please PM me!

 

[uujjj2]

I'm pretty sure the Nissan Leaf still qualifies for the EV tax credit...

There's no friggin way. That thing's been on sale for a decade. They must have sold enough to run out of credits by now.

<looks it up>

Holy moly they still haven't sold 200k of the Leaf. My jaw is on the floor.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Decent unwinding of MMs shorting today, SP sitting at $671 and 4/1 $700c's at $2.

Gonna hold half my 4/1 700c til tomorrow but selling the last few of the other half today at 2.35. Hopefully no regrets at open tomorrow.

All is looking good. And on pretty low volume no less!