Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cosmacelf]

Lol Bloomberg....at least pretend you're not selling headlines. Front page of the app today....

View attachment 650498

It is actually a good article. The headline is simply pointing out that Rivian will be putting chargers in really way out locations, even more remote than Tesla has. It gives a lot of credit to Tesla for realizing ten years ago that ubiquitous chargers sell cars, and that Rivian has realized the same thing. They point out that Rivian is staying on brand by building remote chargers. The interesting info graphic:

And the article link: Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Rarity]

The growth patterns of Tesla and SpaceX are on the same exponential path, only one is a profit and one is pure cost.

They're pretty dissimilar businesses, each with its own growth trajectory, scale, and purpose. It would be difficult to align the employee and investor incentives. Easier and fairer to just let each run its own course.

If you need to create a joint venture between Tesla and SpaceX for the eVTOL market, that can be done.

 

[15Peter20]

You will see what happens when Toyota decides to be really serious. New battery technology, including the Tesla 4680 technology, will be available to Toyota if they decide to go there. Whatever you do don't equate Toyota with laggards elsewhere, wherever they are.

I’ve done a bit of work with Toyota in off highway applications and, frankly, laggards perfectly describes their entire corporate ethos.

 

[2daMoon]

I'm not a chemical or electrical engineer, but I am quite sure that the superiority of the 4680 technology was achieved through a combination of chemistry, system management, tabless format and the actual physical dimensions of the battery (46mm x 80mm). Therefore, I believe the battery will be sold to Toyota with all the physical, chemical and electrical qualities that make up the 4680, as is. Tesla has to get paid for this and, perhaps, the negotiations that are allegedly going on have to do with this. Just a couple of dots out there that I am compelled to connect.

If you haven't yet, look up "The Limiting Factor" videos on YouTube for lots of detail on battery development.

Yes, to get ALL of the benefits from 4680 revealed at Battery Day everything needs to be in the can. However, other manufacturers are already developing their own 4680 batteries and because Tesla is still finishing up the details on producing Dry Electrode, processing Lithium, sourcing Nickel, and more, I don't think those other manufacturers are waiting. They are combining what they already know, along with what their design teams might come up with, to put out versions of their own 4680 as quickly as possible. If only to sell to Tesla, and if their production allows for it, to other OEMs. This is what led me to believe the battery manufacturers are moving ahead with some, but not all, of the 4680 tech. Most prominent and easiest to adapt would be the form factor itself, and, the tabless design.

Sure, I concur that Tesla would be very likely to share/license/whatever those other aspects they are developing, once they have ironed out the details. This would be in line with the company goal of accelerating the transition. It may be a while (a few months, a year?) before they have dialed in the development of the several processes to where they can share it. (Dry electrode, Cathode chemistry, Lithium production, improvements to Nickel production, etc.) Any and all of which can be added incrementally to build upon the 4680 Tabless foundation.

Once ready, Tesla would probably not license these technologies directly to Toyota, but, to Panasonic to provide to Toyota as finished product, as Tesla already has a working relationship with Panasonic, LG Chem, and CATL. Why license battery tech to a company that doesn't make batteries?

 

[Cosmacelf]

As far as Tesla licensing battery cell technology, they will to battery cell manufacturers. Not to car makers directly. But for the next few years, all that licensing will be to allow the battery cell manufacturers to supply Tesla since Tesla will be able to use all the cells it can get its hands on. Tesla isn’t building Semi in any volume now since they don’t have cells. Going forward, we will have a huge Semi ramp as well as Cybertruck, as well as Model 2. There isn’t going to be any excess capacity at any of Tesla’s licensees for any other car manufacturer.

The legacy car manufacturers are screwed. The only cells they’ll have access to are last generation, and even then, not in huge volume. Ever since Tesla built the Nevada Giga factory, it has been obvious that legacy auto needed to follow Tesla and also have captive in house cell supply and R&D. The most forward thinking thing they’ve collectively done is invest little amounts into solid state battery manufacturers, but that’s really rolling the dice.

 

[buttershrimp]

What is the earliest brokerages tend to allow placing premarket order to buy after a holiday?

 

[Don TLR]

I seem to remember a rumor that the space might be for a prototype Tesla Semi production line.

I thought it was for setting up a Cybertruck pilot line, that was the twitter rumor, anyhow along with some of the workers moving to Texas in June iirc.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Heads up, I will be flying over Fremont today if everything goes well - in search of S & X.

Any chance you could swing by Kato Rd? We haven't seen progress there for a little while?

 

[designrs]

Primarily I think it is because he never tried to consider climate change as a risk.

Buffett is in the insurance business. He's made tens of Billions betting on things like climate change. He has the numbers for hurricanes, fires, droughts and all other kind on natural disaster at his fingertips. Following the last big wave of hurricanes in Florida he made a killing betting that they wouldn't continue (he was right). He has said that there has not been an increase in severe weather (I forget the exact quote) in recent times. He's considered it and rejected it.

I like this. A person that that backs his position with money, not politics!

 

[PeterJA]

It is actually a good article. The headline is simply pointing out that Rivian will be putting chargers in really way out locations, even more remote than Tesla has. It gives a lot of credit to Tesla for realizing ten years ago that ubiquitous chargers sell cars, and that Rivian has realized the same thing. They point out that Rivian is staying on brand by building remote chargers. The interesting info graphic:

View attachment 650560

And the article link: Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Disagree. IMO, the Bloomberg article is misleading and the headline is outright false. An accurate headline would be:
Rivian Hopes To Go Where Tesla Has Already Gone

The idea that Rivian will be putting chargers in more remote locations than Tesla is implied but not supported by the article. For example:

"Indeed, a look at the Rivian map colors its sales ambitions. It has a slew of chargers planned for Alaska, Hawaii, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Even Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia will see stations. “We can be really creative in terms of locations,” Scaringe told TechCrunch in December, “so it can allow us to get to places that are very specific and unique to Rivian.”"

Those places are not unique to Rivian. Tesla has Superchargers and Destination Chargers (either built or planned like Rivian) in Alaska, Hawaii, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia.

The article states prominently that Rivian plans "at least 3,500 fast chargers at 600 sites and at least 10,000 slower-charging “waypoints” at campsites, motels, hiking trailheads, and the like — all installed by 2024."

Farther down, it adds: "Tesla has 9,723 fast-charging cords in the U.S., according to the latest Energy Department tally." But a clear and accurate comparison with Rivian would be: Tesla already has 9,858 fast chargers at 998 sites and 11,233 slower chargers at destinations (according to the Energy Department) with a massive expansion planned for 2021.

In short, I agree with @TheTalkingMule's suggestion that the article is slanted toward Rivian and against Tesla.

 

[Thomas Edison]

What is the earliest brokerages tend to allow placing premarket order to buy after a holiday?

4am ET

 

[buttershrimp]

4am ET

See you at 3 am Central...

 

[Huskyf]

... and real world consumer reliability testing of new technologies, for new products, often from a brand new company.
Show me!

Thanks!

150 EU vs 250 USD here in USA - why such a huge diff? Am ordering via a friend just now ;D

View attachment 650487

Because in Europe the carafe is empty no teslaquilla

 

[Navin]

Do think this Toyota / Tesla has merit since it hasn’t been debunked by either group. Also - could see Hiro (Tesla board member) playing a role and middleman given Japanese cultures.

some breadcrumbs

Mr. Hiro Mizuno of Japan - Special Envoy on Innovative Finance and Sustainable Investments | United Nations Secretary-General

www.un.org

https://twitter.com/x/status/1361505560944726019

 

[2daMoon]

Because in Europe the carafe is empty no teslaquilla

As I'm not a fan of Tequila, but having such a unique decanter from which to dispense whiskey (Scotch, Irish, etc.) would be desired, I wanted very much to buy the empty carafe without the Tequila labeling on it. The French webpage won't process the purchase. Likely as I'm registered on the site from the USA.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Typical hack job by the media, this one by TheStreet's Martin Baccardax which is currently trending on my iPhone news feed.

Strike 1 - The title underscores Tesla's achievement by 300 vehicles, although they get it right in the body of the article.

Strike 2 - TheStreet makes it sound like Tesla's 2021 Q1 results are >50% below 2020 Q4 without actually saying it. I do believe this is intentionally done.

Strike 3 - Shows Street estimates of 177k to negate the impact of the beat. My readings are the Street's estimate was between 162k to 172k tops.

Strike 4 - TheStreet implies that TSLA will open lower at the opening Bell on Monday down to $658 without taking into account that the P&D numbers came out AFTER the AH Market bell on Friday. Miscreants!

Strike 5 - Wow, Delivered 183,780 Model 3 and no mention of Model Y. Daft.

If we were playing baseball, the first inning would already be over. And that's not even the whole article. Unfortunately this is so very typical. Mistakes, mistruths, deceiving, conniving. I honestly believe Main Street Media does this on purpose to discredit Tesla. There is no other explanation. Where is the editors to fact check this stuff. It is garbage, pure and simple.

There will be a time when the negative slant against Tesla is blown away, but today is not that day. When Tesla is treated fairly by the Mass Media and I read correct articles based on simple clear and redily available facts, then it will be time to temper my expectations on TSLA. As long as the Mass Media still gets it wrong, whether intentional or not, is a buying opportunity for us. Cheers everyone.

 

[Dutchie]

Getting excited about a rise in the SP on Monday is really as pointless as getting depressed when the SP goes down for a period. The stock market is a drunken sailor.

Tesla has an amazing future. TSLA will follow that, just not in a sober fashion.

And the future is accelerating. If Elon is now projecting two months to $2T, then using my Elon Time Conversion Table, it should happen sometime in 2022.

Why are so many of you obsessed by short term price movements? Aren’t we all here for the long run?

 

[OrthoSurg]

Typical hack job by the media, this one by TheStreet's Martin Baccardax which is currently trending on my iPhone news feed.

Strike 1 - The title underscores Tesla's achievement by 300 vehicles, although they get it right in the body of the article.

View attachment 650580

Strike 2 - TheStreet makes it sound like Tesla's 2021 Q1 results are >50% below 2020 Q4 without actually saying it. I do believe this is intentionally done.

Strike 3 - Shows Street estimates of 177k to negate the impact of the beat. My readings are the Street's estimate was between 162k to 172k tops.

View attachment 650578

Strike 4 - TheStreet implies that TSLA will open lower at the opening Bell on Monday down to $658 without taking into account that the P&D numbers came out AFTER the AH Market bell on Friday. Miscreants!

Strike 5 - Wow, Delivered 183,780 Model 3 and no mention of Model Y. Daft.

View attachment 650577

If we were playing baseball, the first inning would already be over. And that's not even the whole article. Unfortunately this is so very typical. Mistakes, mistruths, deceiving, conniving. I honestly believe Main Street Media does this on purpose to discredit Tesla. There is no other explanation. Where is the editors to fact check this stuff. It is garbage, pure and simple.

There will be a time when the negative slant against Tesla is blown away, but today is not that day. When Tesla is treated fairly by the Mass Media and I read correct articles based on simple clear and redily available facts, then it will be time to temper my expectations on TSLA. As long as the Mass Media still gets it wrong, whether intentional or not, is a buying opportunity for us. Cheers everyone.

Thanks for quoting it here so I don’t have to open their piece of crap article and thus avoiding them the benefit of one more click.

 

[2daMoon]

Now boys and girls, the end of the Tesla Shorts story ...

Tesla bears are becoming an endangered species

Tesla has the makings of a controversial stock. It’s a company with products that are loved by its users and hated by its skeptics, and it’s led by a man that’s both admired by his supporters and loathed by his critics. It was then no surprise when Tesla became one of the most-shorted companies...

www.teslarati.com

 

[SOULPEDL]

See you at 3 am Central...

Anyone ever tried this and had success with timing? At this point, wouldn't it be baked in even at 4AM?
Maybe wait a couple of days for some moe fud on the pullback? (I can't imagine what next.)

My closest friend was "waiting" to get in at a lower price with all his savings. My advice was to average the entry cost out by buying every week or day or whatever, no matter what. Although he's the friend who bought my 63 Buick back. It's a whole mindset just to understand what's happening.

I was afraid to look at the Q1 report until late yesterday. Was this going to be the 3rd or 4th time Q1 disappointed? About this time last year, I was selling as it rose then realized I need to stop selling. This time I only let go the usual 10%, but dumping 30% or more did cross my mind.

Here's to the Longs! I do not see this letting up, the pressure will be tremendous. And I do count FSD in my projections, it's part of my strategy to collect Tesla's for the TN.