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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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And the future is accelerating. If Elon is now projecting two months to $2T, then using my Elon Time Conversion Table, it should happen sometime in 2022.
Can we all please stop saying Elon is projecting Tesla to be the largest company market cap in a several months. This is ridiculous. Anyone that says this is confusing >0% chance with 100% chance and makes what I have thought of many smart posters here on TMC look very foolish. "Two months" @Sancho? Really? IMO, these statements are just as bad as those saying TSLA will go to zero.

Not specific to @Sancho, however enought of the ToDaMoon and Diamond Hands talk which puts us in GameStop fantasy world. I'm heavily invested in Tesla and am investing in real growth fundamentals and results in a company that is changing the world. Think of the readers that will be viewing TMC today for the first time. What impression do we want to make on them? There is excellent discussion on this forum, there is none better in my opinion on all things Tesla. Let's keep it real.
 
Why are so many of you obsessed by short term price movements? Aren’t we all here for the long run?
Depends on your definition of “long run”. I will be in a position, possibly this year, when I could benefit by taking some profits from my investments. I am delaying that somewhat by using an SBLOC so I can at least choose the time to sell.

That’s also why I find it mildly annoying when posters around here jump up and down in glee when the SP falls. That’s the reaction of people with plenty of money who expect to make more money in the indeterminate future. That’s great, but not everyone's situation.

And, no. I don’t want to play options lotto to generate income, thanks anyway.
 
I think we're very very likely to see Elon bring all his enterprises under one umbrella within the next year. Why on Earth wouldn't he?

l would hope EM keeps diversified a bit. Independent operations reduce risk and allow development of management talent. Talent is extremely important to Tesla’s future.

This is not to minimize the benefits of change. For instance, it would be wonderful to move S & X production to Texas where new possibilities of paint are possible. Steel bodied production focused on CA where paint is such a PIA Etc
 
My closest friend was "waiting" to get in at a lower price with all his savings. My advice was to average the entry cost out by buying every week or day or whatever, no matter what. Although he's the friend who bought my 63 Buick back. It's a whole mindset just to understand what's happening.
It's tough to be uberbullish when market cap is $600B+ and P/E is fleventy bazillion, but I really think we're seeing a major window closing here. Was thinking this even before blowout P&D.

A lot of my logic hinges on the gravity of inclusion price. That to me is now our global-economic-downturn-floor. As always, it'll probably take far longer than we at TMC think for the crest back over $800 and then a march to ATH, but it's happening.

The days of a $5xx handle aren't quite gone, but it would take an awful lot to get us back below $600 in the near term and is borderline impossible after year end earnings. We're verging on a leg up to $1T after 4Q earnings IMO.
 
It's tough to be uberbullish when market cap is $600B+ and P/E is fleventy bazillion, but I really think we're seeing a major window closing here. Was thinking this even before blowout P&D.

A lot of my logic hinges on the gravity of inclusion price. That to me is now our global-economic-downturn-floor. As always, it'll probably take far longer than we at TMC think for the crest back over $800 and then a march to ATH, but it's happening.

The days of a $5xx handle aren't quite gone, but it would take an awful lot to get us back below $600 in the near term and is borderline impossible after year end earnings. We're verging on a leg up to $1T after 4Q earnings IMO.
Double bottom and multiple test under 600 has confirmed sellers dry up while buyers swoop in at those levels. 200ma, which is a number we touch due to a catastrophe is 520 and climbing daily. So based on fundamentals pushing Tsla below 600 is not easy.
 
It's tough to be uberbullish when market cap is $600B+ and P/E is fleventy bazillion, but I really think we're seeing a major window closing here. Was thinking this even before blowout P&D.

A lot of my logic hinges on the gravity of inclusion price. That to me is now our global-economic-downturn-floor. As always, it'll probably take far longer than we at TMC think for the crest back over $800 and then a march to ATH, but it's happening.

The days of a $5xx handle aren't quite gone, but it would take an awful lot to get us back below $600 in the near term and is borderline impossible after year end earnings. We're verging on a leg up to $1T after 4Q earnings IMO.
I want to believe, but I remain unconvinced that market manipulators couldn't keep this stock range-bound between 600 and 700 indefinitely, if it served their purposes. I eagerly anticipate watching the next month or two to be proven wrong.
 
It's tough to be uberbullish when market cap is $600B+ and P/E is fleventy bazillion, but I really think we're seeing a major window closing here. Was thinking this even before blowout P&D.

A lot of my logic hinges on the gravity of inclusion price. That to me is now our global-economic-downturn-floor. As always, it'll probably take far longer than we at TMC think for the crest back over $800 and then a march to ATH, but it's happening.

The days of a $5xx handle aren't quite gone, but it would take an awful lot to get us back below $600 in the near term and is borderline impossible after year end earnings. We're verging on a leg up to $1T after 4Q earnings IMO.
$901 sooner than ppl think. Seen FOMO here before. Like you just said, "major window closing here." I'm expecting many others to believe the same thing.

Game, Set, Match.
 
If you haven't yet, look up "The Limiting Factor" videos on YouTube for lots of detail on battery development.

Yes, to get ALL of the benefits from 4680 revealed at Battery Day everything needs to be in the can. However, other manufacturers are already developing their own 4680 batteries and because Tesla is still finishing up the details on producing Dry Electrode, processing Lithium, sourcing Nickel, and more, I don't think those other manufacturers are waiting. They are combining what they already know, along with what their design teams might come up with, to put out versions of their own 4680 as quickly as possible. If only to sell to Tesla, and if their production allows for it, to other OEMs. This is what led me to believe the battery manufacturers are moving ahead with some, but not all, of the 4680 tech. Most prominent and easiest to adapt would be the form factor itself, and, the tabless design.

Sure, I concur that Tesla would be very likely to share/license/whatever those other aspects they are developing, once they have ironed out the details. This would be in line with the company goal of accelerating the transition. It may be a while (a few months, a year?) before they have dialed in the development of the several processes to where they can share it. (Dry electrode, Cathode chemistry, Lithium production, improvements to Nickel production, etc.) Any and all of which can be added incrementally to build upon the 4680 Tabless foundation.

Once ready, Tesla would probably not license these technologies directly to Toyota, but, to Panasonic to provide to Toyota as finished product, as Tesla already has a working relationship with Panasonic, LG Chem, and CATL. Why license battery tech to a company that doesn't make batteries?

So far the realization of the more economical 4680 form factor has been prevented by the cell's internal resistance - since this produces heat, which cannot be quickly removed from a large volume via its relatively small surface. So I would say that at the very least other realizations of the 4680 form factor would include the tabless design, for which Tesla has been issued a patent (which would fall under the patent pledge).
 
So far the realization of the more economical 4680 form factor has been prevented by the cell's internal resistance - since this produces heat, which cannot be quickly removed from a large volume via its relatively small surface. So I would say that at the very least other realizations of the 4680 form factor would include the tabless design, for which Tesla has been issued a patent (which would fall under the patent pledge).
No, they have a patent application.

The included Search report doesn’t look too promising, but one has to wait until the prosecution stage to find out whether the patent attorney manages to salvage something meeting the patentability requirements.
 
Can we all please stop saying Elon is projecting Tesla to be the largest company market cap in a several months. This is ridiculous. Anyone that says this is confusing >0% chance with 100% chance and makes what I have thought of many smart posters here on TMC look very foolish. "Two months" @Sancho? Really? IMO, these statements are just as bad as those saying TSLA will go to zero.

Not specific to @Sancho, however enought of the ToDaMoon and Diamond Hands talk which puts us in GameStop fantasy world. I'm heavily invested in Tesla and am investing in real growth fundamentals and results in a company that is changing the world. Think of the readers that will be viewing TMC today for the first time. What impression do we want to make on them? There is excellent discussion on this forum, there is none better in my opinion on all things Tesla. Let's keep it real.
It boggles the mind that my coruscating post - in full Mod Mode - shaming all those who so thought - or so wrote, which unfortunately may not be synonymous - did not put a full stop to such foolishness as you once again had to point out. 99th time's a charm?
Wearing appropriate hazmat gear, I waded through Twitter & elsewhere and found the full set of Mr Musk's tweets. My best guess is he quickly realized the low reading comprehension of those who follow Twitter and determined that his second post had a >0% probability of being misconstrued, and that is why he deleted it.

I.
Hate.
Twitter.
 
Disagree. IMO, the Bloomberg article is misleading and the headline is outright false. An accurate headline would be:
Rivian Hopes To Go Where Tesla Has Already Gone

The idea that Rivian will be putting chargers in more remote locations than Tesla is implied but not supported by the article. For example:

"Indeed, a look at the Rivian map colors its sales ambitions. It has a slew of chargers planned for Alaska, Hawaii, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Even Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia will see stations. “We can be really creative in terms of locations,” Scaringe told TechCrunch in December, “so it can allow us to get to places that are very specific and unique to Rivian.”"

Those places are not unique to Rivian. Tesla has Superchargers and Destination Chargers (either built or planned like Rivian) in Alaska, Hawaii, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia.

The article states prominently that Rivian plans "at least 3,500 fast chargers at 600 sites and at least 10,000 slower-charging “waypoints” at campsites, motels, hiking trailheads, and the like — all installed by 2024."

Farther down, it adds: "Tesla has 9,723 fast-charging cords in the U.S., according to the latest Energy Department tally." But a clear and accurate comparison with Rivian would be: Tesla already has 9,858 fast chargers at 998 sites and 11,233 slower chargers at destinations (according to the Energy Department) with a massive expansion planned for 2021.

In short, I agree with @TheTalkingMule's suggestion that the article is slanted toward Rivian and against Tesla.

Yikes. Well, whatever man. I think you guys are being a bit too sensitive, but hey, that's just my opinion.

BTW, while we're on the subject of Rivian, it's interesting that they are copying another Tesla innovation, that of mobile service. Finally this week, they told us how they are going to service vehicles, and the answer is mobile service vans, at your home or work. The always connected vehicle (more Tesla innovations) will report to the mothership the health status, and Rivian will reach out to you to schedule service, and presumably they'll have an app to request service yourself.
 
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Yes. Almost certainly for Starlink. SpaceX needs to build millions of Starlink terminals.
@Cosmacelf
take a look at Nextspaceflight.com and an astounding number of upcoming Starlink launches , plus others
Starlink V1
L23, L24, L25 April
L26, L27, L28, L29 May
L30, L31. L32 (plus Transporter) June
L33, L34 July (plus USSF-44 Falcon Heavy) (a launch to watch locally) !!ROAD TRIP!!
L35, L36. L37 August
L38 September

15 launches x 60 Starlinks another 900 added to constellation so around 2,260+
(there may be a bit of slippage on the launch dates obviously)

Space Adventures 1, Jan 2022

as an aside
For the ArabSat 6 launch and landing of Falcon Heavy boosters it was __intense__ being in a "FlashCrowd" at the beach just south of the Cape
Everybody parks more or less everywhere, heads to beach, launch, landing 8+ minutes later, crowd disperses, some got there way early
 
My pure speculation (guided by some public hints Elon has given) is that after the current 10 year CEO contract at Tesla is fulfilled by Elon, he will consolidate his holdings as one corporate entity, X , holding both public and private corporate entities.

By that time he will own 25 to 30 percent of Tesla. Having a top management team in "X" guide Tesla, SpaceX, Boring Company, Neurolink, and Starlink is the only rational way I can think of for Elon to manage all these entities in a coherent, conflict free way going forward; as well as use some of the management talent across the whole group, Gwen Stockwell, Zack Kirkman, etc..

I don't think this has any significant likelihood of happening anytime soon for reasons already discussed here ad infinitum. But if it does, I sincerely hope that they bring in Neuralink rather than Neurolink, and include Gwynne Shotwell and Zach Kirkhorn instead of the folks you mentioned. I'm pretty sure they have much more relevant experience.
 
Typical hack job by the media, this one by TheStreet's Martin Baccardax which is currently trending on my iPhone news feed.

my favorite part of that article was their assertion that Tesla delivered 499,500 cars in Q4 of last year, so Q1 deliveries are far below their record quarter. It's pretty impressive when someone can be so catastrophically wrong and confuse annual numbers with quarterly ones.