Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

Fremont is already one of the largest car manufacturing facilities in the world, and it will be one of Tesla’s smallest facilities.

The legacy model of hyper-localization to accommodate suppliers is a thing of the past.

VW sold 10.7M cars from 118 factories around the world in 2019 with a capacity of ~13M units.

This allows

1) VW to get behind many tariff walls/customs unions.

2) Engenders widespread political support, even within countries.

3) Protects against natural disasters in one location. One earthquake, tornado, tsunami etc won't wipe out your production.

4) Protects against manmade disasters like labor strikes or nationalizations in one particular country.

5) The one VW factory that is only producing BEVs previously made combustion engines. Many of the others can/will be converted to BEV/battery cell manufacturing in the future.

 

[MC3OZ]

Are you saying that Toyota will have access to the 4680 technology through their relationship with Pana? How will Tesla get paid for the use of this technology? Maybe I missed something along the way. Thanks.

Edit: Guess I should have read the intervening posts. Seems like others are wondering the same thing.

IMO Tesla is sharing tabless techology with cell makers because they want them to make 4680 cells. For example, Pana is building a 4680 line at Nevada.

My hunch, Tesla might be making something on licensing and perhaps suppliing equipment, but it is not significant.

Tesla are probably not sharing, DBE, Anode and Cathode process, Lithium Extraction from clays, Tesla formation and Roadrunner line. Or the casting alloy.

So Tesla supplies just enough to allow others to to male 4680 cells for them and others while retaining a cost advantage.

For the possible Toyota partnership I think Toyota may be able to source the casting alloy or castings from Tesla. Toyota can souce 4680 cells from Pana.
Not sure the partnership will happen, but if it does, great and essential for Toyots, great for Tesla, great for the mission.

 

[CLK350]

Because in Europe the carafe is empty no teslaquilla

Ha ha - yes I saw that, no free lunch! - and also missed the earlier post mentioning it, hadn't seen it as I was writing mine. My friend pointed out that indeed it is only the carafe that can contain up to xxx ml. Since I am cluttering the thread, I should mention that the current reposado Tequila from Nosotros is very good and very close to Tesla's more aged anejo, per this review " It may say reposado on the bottle, but tequila pros will immediately peg this as an anejo — plan accordingly."
There, so you all who missed the Teslaquila sale can still get pretty close - I got mine just in time Thursday to celebrate the SP mini jump, and the next day the 1Q announcement (order 3 for free shipping). Note, there is a blank label on the back of the reposado for a gift note - I use it to mark the notable TSLA moves ;D

 

[sdtslafan]

Since its the weekend, I hope its ok to post this here. Trying to understand better about charitable remainder trusts, potentially as a way to retire, avoid taxes on selling Tesla, and get an income stream. Because Tesla could go up soon and many of us are contemplating retirement, I think its relevant to a lot of people. I learned about it from my tax advisor.

Not investment advise but from what I can tell positives are you can put tesla in a CRT, sell tesla in the CRT without paying any tax, manage the money in the CRT and direct into safer investments, get an annuity, get a tax deduction up from which can be spread out over first 5 years and cover the taxes on the annuity those years. If you die early, the charity gets the entire sum but you can offset this risk with life insurance which i have.

If you have any thoughts, I'd be curious... thanks!

OK to move to early retirement thread if needed.

 

[buttershrimp]

I don't think this has any significant likelihood of happening anytime soon for reasons already discussed here ad infinitum. But if it does, I sincerely hope that they bring in Neuralink rather than Neurolink, and include Gwynne Shotwell and Zach Kirkhorn instead of the folks you mentioned. I'm pretty sure they have much more relevant experience.

Am I the only person that views Neuralink as the runt of the litter? A runt with a clumsy implant in its head with a serious need for legitimate researchers with cash? I’m not saying they should try but perhaps would be wise to think of it as the most difficult of all endeavors.

 

[Mo City]

VW sold 10.7M cars from 118 factories around the world in 2019 with a capacity of ~13M units.

This allows

1) VW to get behind many tariff walls/customs unions.

2) Engenders widespread political support, even within countries.

3) Protects against natural disasters in one location. One earthquake, tornado, tsunami etc won't wipe out your production.

4) Protects against manmade disasters like labor strikes or nationalizations in one particular country.

5) The one VW factory that is only producing BEVs previously made combustion engines. Many of the others can/will be converted to BEV/battery cell manufacturing in the future.

I'm glad this worked so well for them from ancient history up to now.

However, old things must pass away and be replaced by the new. I (sincerely) hope VW can successfully navigate the transition.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Am I the only person that views Neuralink as the runt of the litter? A runt with a clumsy implant in its head with a serious need for legitimate researchers with cash? I’m not saying they should try but perhaps would be wise to think of it as the most difficult of all endeavors.

It is by far the company with the farthest time horizon to achieve something significant. On the flip side, if Neuralink is successful, it will be the company that is the most significant in terms of changing the outcome of humanity, in my opinion.

 

[RobStark]

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry says he'll stop tweeting after SEC regulators paid him a visit

The Scion Asset Management boss has tweeted about market bubbles and criticized Tesla, bitcoin, Robinhood, and the GameStop buying frenzy this year.

markets.businessinsider.com

 

[RobStark]

I'm glad this worked so well for them from ancient history up to now.

However, old things must pass away and be replaced by the new. I (sincerely) hope VW can successfully navigate the transition.

I hope Tesla is as successful at creating a new reality more suitable for Tesla as many here hope.

But it is not part of my investment thesis. And in no way stops Tesla from becoming the biggest market cap co in the world.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Am I the only person that views Neuralink as the runt of the litter? A runt with a clumsy implant in its head with a serious need for legitimate researchers with cash? I’m not saying they should try but perhaps would be wise to think of it as the most difficult of all endeavors.

Second Foundation vs First Foundation

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Tesla Q1 2021 Earnings Preview (spoiler: HUGE)" | Solving the Money Problem w. SMR

 

[st_lopes]

VW sold 10.7M cars from 118 factories around the world in 2019 with a capacity of ~13M units.

This allows

1) VW to get behind many tariff walls/customs unions.

2) Engenders widespread political support, even within countries.

3) Protects against natural disasters in one location. One earthquake, tornado, tsunami etc won't wipe out your production.

4) Protects against manmade disasters like labor strikes or nationalizations in one particular country.

5) The one VW factory that is only producing BEVs previously made combustion engines. Many of the others can/will be converted to BEV/battery cell manufacturing in the future.

Yes, I oversimplified the rationale for having 118 locations, but you do understand that VW’s model converts to 90k units per location. That is an incredible amount of logistics complexity that they have introduced to their supply chain (and a lot of overhead cost) for what is a very small capacity per location.

You’ve also grossly oversimplified a legacy OEM’s ability to convert stranded facilities in to BEV facilities. Each of those conversions will be additional capital they need to raise (when their debt levels are already astronomical) to produce vehicles that may never reach the margins of their ICE predecessors.

The operating model is broken and filled with points of failure that will put VW at the mercy of suppliers, unions, and governments. All while needing to maintain dozens if not hundreds of PR and government and labor relations lawyers. Again, expensive additional overhead for a business that is going to need every dollar to survive the transformation they need to undertake, just to survive, let alone succeed.

 

[SN_8]

Chargepoint getting feisty on Twitter...

/endofthread

 

[Cosmacelf]

Chargepoint getting feisty on Twitter...
View attachment 650635
/endofthread

What are they referring to?

 

[MP3Mike]

BTW, while we're on the subject of Rivian, it's interesting that they are copying another Tesla innovation, that of mobile service. Finally this week, they told us how they are going to service vehicles, and the answer is mobile service vans, at your home or work. The always connected vehicle (more Tesla innovations) will report to the mothership the health status, and Rivian will reach out to you to schedule service, and presumably they'll have an app to request service yourself.

And they are being sued for stealing Tesla's IP related to charging infrastructure and mobile service...

 

[Cosmacelf]

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry says he'll stop tweeting after SEC regulators paid him a visit

The Scion Asset Management boss has tweeted about market bubbles and criticized Tesla, bitcoin, Robinhood, and the GameStop buying frenzy this year.

markets.businessinsider.com

Anyone know why the SEC called on Burry? The article doesn’t say. I’m not upset that yet another Tesla bear gets shut up, but on the flip side, not sure that the SEC should be shutting up people at all. Are opinions about companies verboten now, or did Burry cross some line?

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Why are so many of you obsessed by short term price movements? Aren’t we all here for the long run?

I don't get posts like this.

If you are building wealth presumably you want to do something with it???

If you are 60 and want to retire now instead of in five years time wouldn't it be better if the share price goes up sooner rather than later?

If you are 50 and want to buy a nice apartment/house wouldn't it be better if the value of your shares reaches your goal in a year rather than in ten years from now so you can actually live in that house for longer?

If you are 40 and looking to do charitable work wouldn't it be better if you have a million to give away now rather than later?

I don't care if I have $X million when I'm 80. I want it while I can still have some use for it. I plan to be close to broke when I'm 80 (free healthcare here so that's not an issue)

I'm actually not that far from where I could sell half my shares and buy a very nice place for myself. I'ld probably do it around $1200. Will we reach that price in five years? Almost certainly. Will it happen this year? Probably not but I would much prefer if it did.

 

[SN_8]

What are they referring to?

I took it to mean that VW has no real history with EVs

 

[woodisgood]

I don't get posts like this.

If you are building wealth presumably you want to do something with it???

If you are 60 and want to retire now instead of in five years time wouldn't it be better if the share price goes up sooner rather than later?

If you are 50 and want to buy a nice apartment/house wouldn't it be better if the value of your shares reaches you goal in a year rather than in ten years from now so you can actually live in that house for longer?

If you are 40 and looking to do charitable work wouldn't it be better if you have a million to give away now rather than later?

I don't care if I have $X million when I'm 80. I want it while I can still have some use for it. I plan to be close to broke when I'm 80 (free healthcare here so that's not an issue)

I'm actually not that far from where I could sell half my shares and buy a very nice place for myself. I'ld probably do it around $1200. Will we reach that price in five years? Almost certainly. Will it happen this year? Probably not but I would much prefer if it did.

Even the wisest of people tend to have difficulty fathoming how someone else could be in a different situation than themselves. It is frequently noticeable on this forum but it’s a heck of a lot better here than anywhere else on the internet. At least folks here tend to be humble enough to accept when their blind spots are pointed out.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I took it to mean that VW has no real history with EVs

Ah. That’s way too subtle for my poor brain. I guess Chargepoint is competing against VW’s charging network...