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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Here’s a fun weekend challenge to get us to Monday sooner.....
Who has the largest spread between their cheapest shares and their most expensive shares purchased? Please always adjust the prices for the split to make the math easy...

I’ll go first. Can anyone beat $705.05 ?
lowest is $17.80
highest is $722.85
Yes!!! Lowest $5.45. (That could be a few cents out, as its from memory) highest $795.
 
I wonder what the locals on the forum think about this:

Local here:

The IGM has below 0 chances to get an agreement with Tesla done. The BI article is as often a sensational piece but the content is wrong. The Union has messed everything up in 2017 when Tesla bought Grohman and they wanted desperately to get an agreement done but Tesla did pay well and people a 30% raise and options hence workers had no interest.

Since then the IGM smears Tesla in the media with plain lies (see my last Fullycharged article) and tried to force some kind of conversation without having any leverage. Tesla pays for Giga Berlin over average in Brandenburg and IGM has nothing to offer for workers. IGM is desperate because not having an agreement sets a bad example in automotive to be obsolete and they feel the heat.

The only option the IGM has is if a majority of workers from Tesla become Union members but that's not likely.They select everyone very carefully and certainly don't take people who want the Unions in.

What even many Germans do not know and understand is that having an agreement with the Unions could mean that you get worse pay and not better! Tesla pays already over average. People who burn for the Tesla mission will be flexible with working hours and that's what a company that is growing fast needs.

In the last hit piece from Frontal21 the Union representative lied life in the camera giving their last option away for any kind of conversation. With regards to NABU IGM can do nothing either as almost all permits are given already. The last environmental permit is just a formality.
 
I think the majority of VWs plants will be able to produce EVs with various levels of retooling, so I dont think they can be called stranded assets at all.

Even Tesla factories have plenty of assets that you will also find in a standard ICE plant: The external structure itself that houses the lines, the surrounding warehousing/holding areas, the BIW assembly, Stamping presses, the general assembly lines filled with reprogrammable automation, the paint shops etc, the parts of the plants handling electricity/water/HVAC etc, the seperate plants dedicated to wheels/seats etc, the logistics and distribution facilities, the actual land itself, the consent rights to the environmental resources it uses. It is much easier/quicker/cheaper to retool these existing plants than it would be to acquire land, get building consents, build/order and install entire new production facilities.
The point I made in my tweet is that its stranded assets because the investment you need to lift to transform an ICE factory into a BEV factory is comparable to building a brand new BEV factory.

In fact, you throw almost all previous invested capital away. it's not like you change a few tools and can start production again. This is not retooling at all but the entire layout needs to change. Everybody who is telling you that knows nothing about automotive production and as a side note, I am a production engineer by education.

Some parts of the old ICE factory can be used again but it's minor compared to what you invest again.

For VW it's a major investment and when they finished it they still have an old factory more costly and with lower productivity. factoring productivity gains in Tesla has with a new factory compared to lower productivity VW has with an old transformed ICE factory they lose money although all the investment.

If you ask why VW does not start on a green field but goes for a blue field investment its the Unions. The VW law allows unions to decide what is produced where and not the VW Management.
 
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Tesla files a petition against U.S. labor board order | Reuters Apr 03 2021

"Tesla Inc has filed an appeal on a U.S. National Labor Relations Board ruling that the electric-car maker had violated U.S. labor law, and on the agency's order that Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk delete a tweet from the account."​

Good luck to the Nat'l Labor Relations Board trying to ignore the 1st Amendment. /S

Especially when they (likely deliberately) misinterpreted the tweet: It is UNION POLICY that union autoworkers can't receive stock options. And the board also ignores the fact that Tesla workers voted down a recent attempt to unionize the Fremont factory.

Oh, did I mention that it was the United Auto Workers (UAW) union that agreed to the previous shuttering of the (former) NUMMI plant, back when it was a joint venture by Toyota/GM? Gotta protect those Union Jobs (in Michigan). That's how Tesla was able to buy the unused plant for on $50M (and bring back over 10K jobs to the Fremont plant).

Meanwhile (less than a year ago), the former president of the UAW plead guilty to charges of corruption. embezzlement, racketeering and tax evasion as part of a larger scandal over union corruption (protecting no jobs btw).


The Nat'l Labor Board is a political body with no final authority. That is reserved for the courts, which will render their judgement (based on actual facts and the law) in due course.

In the mean time, look for the 1st Amendment to be unaffected. :D

Cheers!
 
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Here’s a fun weekend challenge to get us to Monday sooner.....
Who has the largest spread between their cheapest shares and their most expensive shares purchased? Please always adjust the prices for the split to make the math easy...

I’ll go first. Can anyone beat $705.05 ?
lowest is $17.80
highest is $722.85
I was a student when my wife and I went all in with all our savings and bought our first 450 TSLA shares at $34. I sold them to pay my student debts when I graduated after internship where I couldn’t work for 5 years. The dumbest mistake of all time, I know.
I bought back at $310 the same amount after 3 years of work. The greatest reverse investing of all time.
Bought 10 shares at $815.

I don’t beat you with my delta of $781. Just with my average cost basis of $395 that would have been $39 if I forgot I had went all in on TSLA when I was a student and kept the money of my 7 years of working as dispatcher and manager before internship.

a delta average cost basis of $354. Now, try to beat that ;)
 
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Here’s a fun weekend challenge to get us to Monday sooner.....
Who has the largest spread between their cheapest shares and their most expensive shares purchased? Please always adjust the prices for the split to make the math easy...

I’ll go first. Can anyone beat $705.05 ?
lowest is $17.80
highest is $722.85
Well, for now a top 5 finish.
Probably finish in the top 12 :cool:
Started at $6.70 and last purchased at $827 for a $827 finish.
All in.....;)
 
Now boys and girls, the end of the Tesla Shorts story ...

They say the TSLA shorts went from 25% to 7%. Has BillGates covered his short position yet? Is he still an endangered specie? Lol
 
Anyone know why the SEC called on Burry? The article doesn’t say. I’m not upset that yet another Tesla bear gets shut up, but on the flip side, not sure that the SEC should be shutting up people at all. Are opinions about companies verboten now, or did Burry cross some line?

Presumably because Burry was straddling the line between legal and illegal. In principle one way for Burry's negative tweeting to get SEC's attention would be through a short-and-distort scheme, although some would see the SEC's interference with this type of fraud as unlikely.

 
Tesla files a petition against U.S. labor board order | Reuters Apr 03 2021

"Tesla Inc has filed an appeal on a U.S. National Labor Relations Board ruling that the electric-car maker had violated U.S. labor law, and on the agency's order that Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk delete a tweet from the account."​

Good luck to the Nat'l Labor Relations Board trying to ignore the 1st Amendment. /S

Especially when they (likely deliberately) misinterpreted the tweet: It is UNION POLICY that union autoworkers can't receive stock options. And the board also ignores the fact that Tesla workers voted down a recent attempt to unionize the Fremont factory.

Oh, did I mention that it was the United Auto Workers (UAW) union that agreed to the previous shuttering of the (former) NUMMI plant, back when it was a joint venture by Toyota/GM? Gotta protect those Union Jobs (in Michigan). That's how Tesla was able to buy the unused plant for on $50M (and bring back over 10K jobs to the Fremont plant).

Meanwhile (less than a year ago), the former president of the UAW plead guilty to charges of corruption. embezzlement, racketeering and tax evasion as part of a larger scandal over union corruption (protecting no jobs btw).


The Nat'l Labor Board is a political body with no final authority. That is reserved for the courts, which will render their judgement (based on actual facts and the law) in due course.

In the mean time, look for the 1st Amendment to be unaffected. :D

Cheers!

Agreed. What confused me when this "ruling" came out was . . . what "authority" do the NLRB have to fine Tesla, etc.? They are not a judge and jury. It's a bunch of F-ing bureaucrats that are more likely than not paid off by the UAW to go after companies like Tesla.
 
With GM launching Hummer EV, I found this article from ieee, very good comparison of the “competition”. They do put cybertruck with the best odds of being first to showroom (ironically they may just sell directly and not reach showroom at all for a few years).

 
Here’s a fun weekend challenge to get us to Monday sooner.....
Who has the largest spread between their cheapest shares and their most expensive shares purchased? Please always adjust the prices for the split to make the math easy...

I’ll go first. Can anyone beat $705.05 ?
lowest is $17.80
highest is $722.85
I have been at this for a long time.:-D

I bought most at $6.4 ($32 pre split).
Highest buy was at $862 I think. ;-)

Edit: I also dipped into margin and bought 400 shares at $640 or so last month.
 
That's going to be hard to beat...!

This is a fun story. I had been following Tesla mid 2012 and specifically, the Model S as I was looking at replacing my wife’s BMW 335D which she really liked. We were taking a vacation down in Florida in late December when I showed my wife an image of the new Model S 85 and asked if she wanted to take a test drive In January when we got back. She said that she liked the look of the tesla but was happy with her BMW and she was not sure about Electric vehicles. I told her that her commute to work was only 28 miles each way and she was going for her Doctorate at PCOM IN philly which was another 20 miles so her total round trip commute was only about 100 miles and this Tesla had a range of 265 miles so she could charge the car in the Garage at night and always have a full “tank“ for her commute each day. She did not quite understand the concept, but I said, let’s give it a try and test drive the car when we get back. Luckily, my wife is a car girl, likes fast cars and was ok with taking a test drive, and she always liked to check out new cars. I immediately called that Tesla showroom in PA and talked to a salesperson or associate and asked to set up a test drive. He asked if we put down a deposit online because they were busy giving test drives to deposit holders and really had no available time left in the first part of January as they were just staffing up this new temporary showroom. I said we could come in any time they had a free slot and he reiterated that they were too busy and that I really need to put a deposit down and then wait in line like everyone else. I really pressed him and said, look, I do not put down deposits on cars I have not test driven, but I am very interested and promise not to waste your time and we will come in on Monday morning After the beginning of the year, you must have some time then as I am sure it will not be to busy on a Monday. He finally gave in and said ok, come in on January 14th, which was a Monday and I will give you and your wife a quick test drive. Tesla had a temporary showroom some where near King of Prussia, PA (Can’t remember the specific town, but Washington comes to mind) and it was in a weird nondescript office park/business park setting.

We get there around 10 in the morning, right when they are opening. They have a few cars in the back, a garage with 3-4 lifts and the front of the building had a small office suite with 1 chair in it. A really funky set up. The people were very nice. The guy took our information and photocopied our license and took us out. I told my wife she should go first. The guy gave us a “tour” of the car and my wife was very impressed. We go out on one of the local roads and my wife is really enjoying the drive and then the guy says to hit it, all I can say is whoa, my wife loved it and was giggling. This coming from a family where we had a GTR, Porsche 911 and her BMW 335D which was quick for a diesel with lots of low end torque. Suffice it to say that she was sold.
We came back, ordered a Model S 85 in Blue with every option except the 3rd rear facing seat and we were to get our car in April. After ordering the car online, I also bought 300 shares of Tesla at $6.67 (split adjusted) and we have not looked back since. My highest share price, as we have been buying TSLA through all the ups and downs, is $889 a share. We are now on our 3rd Tesla, which is a Model 3 performance with the track software. Life is good!
 
Ok I watched it, I had watched it once before but really delved in more this evening. Yes they have some pretty smart people as part of the team, and it is exciting to see them try to get engineers working on the issue (this is sorely needed), but the real value at this point is that Elon is the only person actually capable of inspiring people to take it seriously.

I am someone who likes this research and subject, but I respectfully think they don’t have a serious group of researchers yet. My hope is that they will one day. There are some fantastic neuroscience researchers at the University of Texas. we need a Karpathy equivalent but in neuroscience and medicine and the problem is that person is going to be a weird mix of of a neurotologist and an academic. I love the idea and the mission of neuralink but they need to be building a wing of a major university and incredibly strong at basic research. I think the reason I care about neuralink being the weakest of Elon’s projects is because it’s the most important, and I don’t want it to be written off by real scientists that understand the challenge. I’m very thankful they are trying but want it not to suck or die an early death. Or worse, that it be associated with something like Theranos where engineers are tasked with solving a basic science question.
Well, it was a ‘recruitment’ endeavor for all types. I imagine that means R&D people too. And you are aware they’re beyond the pigs now, right? They implanted a monkey and taught it to play video games.

Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your view of the living), R&D involving animals, and even more so people, is subject to a lot of moral and ethical questions nowadays which often slows progress to a crawl.

I would say their current approach to nail down the safety of the technology, the ability to add or remove it with no ill effects, to make it practically unnoticeable, to have it implanted and removed by the precision of a programmed robot rather than human hands in a matter of minutes etc... is the best choice.

I would also say that when the time comes, human volunteers will line up for the chance to be a guinea pig, and that as Elon has demonstrated before, smart people will want to work there.

I think, as is your tendency, your concerns are misplaced and focused on the wrong aspect.
 
I don’t think Tesla will deliver 1m cars this year but I do think Q4 production will be over 250k

And next year will be easy 1m

Telsa's stretch goal for 2021 likely looks something like this: (Model 3/Y Deliveries)

Q1: 185K +​
Q2: 228K +​
Q3: 272K +​
Q4: 315K =​
1 M Models 3/Y​

Then throw in 100K Models S/X and that's 1.1M deliveries for 2021.

Ambitious, but achievable IMO.

Cheers!
 
Do Robotaxi's Dream of Electric Bottles?


Will the switch to Rivian EV delivery vehicles make this a 'shorting hazard'? :p

Cheers!
 
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