Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Paul_SF]

It was one hell of a PR risk move to build in the state that was the most reticent to let Tesla sell his cars directly to consumers.

Has this promise of thousand jobs creation changed the view of Tesla by the legislation makers? Will they allow Tesla to finally sell directly to customers?

It will happen. Have no doubts.

 

[Cosmacelf]

It was one hell of a PR risk move to build in the state that was the most reticent to let Tesla sell his cars directly to consumers.

Has this promise of thousand jobs creation changed the view of Tesla by the legislation makers? Will they allow Tesla to finally sell directly to customers?

Anyone know how many Tesla’s weren’t sold in Texas due to the restrictions?

I didn’t see it as a PR risk move, more of a PR opportunity to help get legislation fixed. Regardless, that isn’t why Tesla chose Austin. They learned from the Nevada Gigafactory that you can’t build a large factory where you don’t have enough of a population for employees. Austin was chosen because enough of the right kind of people want to live there to be both engineers and manufacturing line employees.

 

[Baumisch]

I'd be surprised if they ditch it this soon. I think they'll want to gather significant statistical evidence that the radar isn't helpful before pulling it from production vehicles.

Yeah right, like with the rainsensor the 3 never got and til today it works suboptimal ....

 

[reardencode]

Yeah right, like with the rainsensor the 3 never got and til today it works suboptimal ....

?? Seattle Model Y owner totally satisfied with camera based rain sensing here...

 

[EVMeister]

Yeah right, like with the rainsensor the 3 never got and til today it works suboptimal ....

Matter of perspective. It works better than the rain sensor did in the Jaguar, Nissan or Renault I've owned.

 

[willow_hiller]

Matter of perspective. It works better than the rain sensor did in the Jaguar, Nissan or Renault I've owned.

This is probably an apt analogy for many of the sensor/neural network decisions being made at Tesla.

A hardwired rain sensor works okay. But after it's installed in a vehicle, it can never improve. The sensor outputs a binary rain/dry signal, and no amount of software can improve its reliability.

A camera based system can be bad to start out with, but as long as there is some signal in the noise, firmware can be designed such that the functionality continues to improve over time.

 

[Prunesquallor]

It was one hell of a PR risk move to build in the state that was the most reticent to let Tesla sell his cars directly to consumers.

Has this promise of thousand jobs creation changed the view of Tesla by the legislation makers? Will they allow Tesla to finally sell directly to customers?

Texas H.B. 4379, currently in the Texas House Transportation Subcommittee

SECTION 2. Section 2301.476, Occupations Code, is amended by adding Subsection(i-1) to read as follows:

(i-1) Notwithstanding any other provision of this chapter, a manufacturer or distributor may own or operate a dealership, may own, operate, or otherwise act in the capacity of a dealer, and may obtain a dealer general distinguishing number if:
(1) The manufacturer or distributor manufactures or distributes motor vehicles powered only by electricity or battery;
and
(2) the manufacturer’s line-make has never been sold in this state through an independent franchised new motor vehicle dealership.

 

[Knightshade]

Matter of perspective. It works better than the rain sensor did in the Jaguar, Nissan or Renault I've owned.

it's still noticeably worse for me than the physical rain sensor I had in my Lexus.

That said, it was massively bordering on uselessly worse at first. To the point it was the first time in over a decade I found myself driving a car with the wipers in a setting OTHER than auto because of how bad auto was.

Now it's only annoyingly worse- to where I still have to hit the button for manual wipes some of the time, but can leave it on auto and it works ok most of the time.

How good or bad it is for any given owner does seem to vary quite a bit based on both:

Where they live and what kinda rain they get
and
Their previous experiences with auto wipers

(there's a bunch of threads on this elsewhere.


I expect over time it'll catch up fully to a quality physical sensor even if it has taken a while.... in fact, Elon just mentioned this as one of the things significantly improved in the next big update-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1380688750179586049

Also promises improvement to seat heaters, which I'm kinda curious what that is exactly....

 

[Big Time]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1381239315116797952

 

[Mike Smith]

Night time at Giga Texas

https://twitter.com/x/status/1380930527428014085

 

[lklundin]

The full and now fixed version of today's flyover. Apologies for the mixup.

Thanks. 10m38s and 11m28s show casts from the operational gigapress. Since the last video (I saw) from there, the casts are now placed in metal structures, suitable for being moved by a fork lift. Some structures hold 3 (stacked) others 5 (vertically side-by-side). There seems to be a few hundred casts stored in these structures. The containers with rejects seem to hold a rather small number. What that says above the reject-rate is hard to say.

 

[CorneliusXX]

In Wu Wa's latest video he opens with new construction starting to the east of the factory, which is in addition to the anticipated southern land expansion that has been mentioned recently. It's a bit tricky to get it into view with the current factory, but in the top left of the photo you can see the current north east building under construction. I wonder if this is Tesla related, and if so it looks large enough to be another phase expansion - Maybe Semi, cybertruck or batteries.

Video below for reference

 

[capster]

I always thought the biggest benefit from radar was the ability to measure relative speed at a distance, say 50-300 yards. If you don't think radar is better at that task, just ask the officer next time you get pulled over for speeding, I know my binocular vision is challenged estimating relative speed at longer distances. I'm very dependent on break lights. but they don't always work.

I trust that Tesla's solution using just vision is real, I just don't know how they do it. Do they measure distance by having binocular vision with wider separation of the cameras, measure changes in focal length of the cameras, measure changes in relative size of the Images, etc.? What other options are availabe?

Optic flow allows depth perception even in monocular systems: Surfaces and boundaries of objects projected onto a retina or other imaging surface will move differently as a function of distance when the observer is moving relative to the scene. Distances can be estimated from the flow in a trained/calibrated system. Optic flow - Scholarpedia

Binocular (or multi-ocular) disparity, the separation between eyes/cameras, provides another means to estimate distance as you mention.

 

[wtlloyd]

No reason to have a truck unless you’re a contractor. The skilled workers just bring their skills and some small hand tools. The contractor supplies the power tools and the material.

Depends on the trade and how advanced you are in it. I have more tools than the two guys I'm working for...combined.

 

[RobStark]

SK Innovation To Pay $1.8 Billion To LG Energy To Avert Ban

The two South Korean lithium-ion battery manufacturers officially announced the agreement to end the U.S. ITC trade secret dispute and end litigation.

insideevs.com

 

[UnknownSoldier]

?? Seattle Model Y owner totally satisfied with camera based rain sensing here...

Seattle Model 3 owner here and the auto sensing is trash. All you need to do is drive through a storm at night. The camera can't see the rain and the wipers never come on unless you drive under a street light and then they come on when the camera can suddenly see the rain but then they stop shortly afterwards when they can't see it again.

Also often they go from completely stopped to the fastest wiper speed even with only light rain. They don't seem to have a good idea of the amount of rain so they tend to be overly aggressive when it's not necessary.

 

[jerry33]

I was surprised at the ratio of passenger cars to pickups/SUV's there were in the construction worker parking lots. Even more surprised how few were Tesla (less than 1%). This shows just how early we are in the transition.

Unless you are bringing your own tools and materials (e.g. small job site), there's no reason to drive the expensive pickup.

 

[insaneoctane]

Does anyone know where any TSLA forecast models reside on the web? I am unsatisfied with my overly simple one (currently lacking future P/E reduction) and want to estimate SP out 5, 10, 15+ years. I am hoping to adjust an existing one to match my personal assumptions. I realize that looking that far out is very difficult, riddled with unknowns, but Id like to try.

 

[jerry33]

It was one hell of a PR risk move to build in the state that was the most reticent to let Tesla sell his cars directly to consumers.

Has this promise of thousand jobs creation changed the view of Tesla by the legislation makers? Will they allow Tesla to finally sell directly to customers?

It will happen as soon as the dealers are no longer capable of massive campaign contributions.

 

[jerry33]

Anyone know how many Tesla’s weren’t sold in Texas due to the restrictions?

No one knows, but there are many people who purchase cars on impulse, need a car right now because the previous car just got totaled, want an immediate test drive, want financing through the sales place, etc. I'd guess the number could be anywhere from 10% to 30%, but we'll never know.