Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Love this quote: "Tesla is bringing a machine gun to a knife fight, and that will allow them to continue to expand their lead."

 

[StealthP3D]

Looks like weather causes a possibly dangerous issue as well. At 21 minute into this video:

It's definitely not up to Tesla's safety standards but I disagree it's "unbelievably dangerous" as he claims in the video. What surprises me is how easy this would be to fix (and that they haven't). It shows how much so many other manufacturers are STILL struggling with software.

 

[dgodfrey]

Anybody seen preliminary profit estimates for Ford with the Mach-E? I’d be very surprised if their first EV Is profitable at all, especially when just buying batteries....

Depends on how you define "profitable". A similar logic as applied to Tesla's profitability will show it profitable as it allows the obscenely profitable truck and SUV division to crank out millions. The Mach-E is a compliance car just as the Bolt is. This is why it's earmarked for Europe initially. They have no intention of making any more than necessary to keep their truck production at peak.

Individually, the legacy BEV's outside of how their carbon credits skew the numbers, so far have not been able to hold their own. As opposed to Tesla that does make BEV's that individually are profitable. As a company however Tesla, unlike the legacy's is still in a hypergrowth trajectory so they spend more than they earn. Without the carbon credits, as a company, they (Tesla) would show a loss. If those credits or financing dried up, Tesla would just scale back the growth. That's a lot easier than trying to squeeze $9,000 of cost out of a Bolt. I would imagine the Mach-E no different.

 

[PV4EV]

ˈəʊn(ə)rəs,ˈɒn(ə)rəs

Ahh, that's the name being reserved for XÆA-12's brother.

.

 

[ZsoZso]

The interns at the MMs terminal are going to get some rough marks for today's performance.
They keep missing to whack some moles who pop their heads up above 700.

 

[StealthP3D]

Depends on how you define "profitable". A similar logic as applied to Tesla's profitability will show it profitable as it allows the obscenely profitable truck and SUV division to crank out millions. The Mach-E is a compliance car just as the Bolt is. This is why it's earmarked for Europe initially. They have no intention of making any more than necessary to keep their truck production at peak.

Individually, the legacy BEV's outside of how their carbon credits skew the numbers, so far have not been able to hold their own. As opposed to Tesla that does make BEV's that individually are profitable. As a company however Tesla, unlike the legacy's is still in a hypergrowth trajectory so they spend more than they earn. Without the carbon credits, as a company, they (Tesla) would show a loss. If those credits or financing dried up, Tesla would just scale back the growth. That's a lot easier than trying to squeeze $9,000 of cost out of a Bolt. I would imagine the Mach-E no different.

As TSLA investors who have heard it all, we know that emissions credits must be included in the overall calculation. So, the Mach-e reduces the need for Ford to buy the credits from their competitors. That's probably a ~$2k cash value right there. There is a little additional benefit that they don't have to give this money to a competitor (which would allow them to undercut their prices even more). I put that value at about 10-15% the value of the credit (which probably covers the negative value of the few sales the Mach-e steals from other Ford products).

Even considering these things, I think the Mach-e is probably about break-even or worse. Which is to say the value to Ford is primarily a learning experience. The hardest part is actually manufacturing, so the value is in gaining expertise. Everyone has to start somewhere.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I have a conflicted view of the Roadster II. On one hand, I've always appreciated outstanding performance, mostly in the motorcycle world, because being smaller and lighter motorcycles require less resources and are closer to the human experience. But I've also appreciated small, light sportscars, Formula 1, etc. not so much muscle cars (because they are not ultimate performance machines). It's always been about pushing the technology to be faster and more agile. To me, that has value and the Roadster has that. I don't need one, no one does really, but I'm glad it exists. You do what you want, just do it for the right reasons. I won't look down on you if your primary interest is the technology and capabilities. If you buy it to impress others and think it puts you on a pedestal then I'll just look away in shame.

I would still respect more someone who buys a Roadster 2.0 to show off than a Lambo veneno to show off

 

[Knightshade]

We need to get some basic facts on this story....I cherish the fact that I can come to TMC to get away from FUD!

Mach E owners manual.

https://www.fordservicecontent.com/Ford_Content/Catalog/owner_information/2021-Ford-Mustang-Mach-E-Owners-Manual-version-1_om_EN-US_09_2020-1.pdf

The lane keeping system alerts you by
providing temporary steering assistance
or steering wheel vibration when it detects
an unintended lane departure.

and

When the camera detects a drift out of the
travel lane, the lane keeping system alerts
the driver by vibrating the steering wheel,
or aids the driver by providing a small
steering input to move the vehicle back
into the travel lane.

Sounds pretty much like the Lane Departure Avoidance system Tesla has if you have AP off....up to and including both have the same 3 settings... Off, warn-only, and assist.

Neither system would handle the situations in that video significantly differently, as they're NOT meant to keep you in lane around curves or blind hills or anything like it.


Tesla has AP to handle that.

Ford will have, later this year, their own (hands off, since like caddy is uses a camera-based dedicated driving monitoring system) such system but DOES NOT have such a system today. I certainly don't know how well the system will work compared to basic AP, but it should work a TON better at that task than the mere lane keep system from either maker

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Pretty soon we're gonna have our answer for the week. Macro's have been recovering for the past 45 mins while Tesla can't get back to it's high of the day. I think it's safe to say, barring any big news (which even then as we saw last week might not matter), we're going to be capped at 700 all week if Macro's turn green and we're still at 700

Man whoever manages to pick the right week to play short term call options is gonna be hella lucky. Cause the spring is being compressed like crazy at this point. You gotta figure it's going to be a massive move when it does break out

 

[ninpb]

On the luxury topic, most of the uber luxury brands don't even own themselves anymore but are now owned by the people's car companies. Sorta like the poor eating the rich when things get so bad. I'm happy with Tesla just being themselves.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Pretty soon we're gonna have our answer for the week. Macro's have been recovering for the past 45 mins while Tesla can't get back to it's high of the day. I think it's safe to say, barring any big news (which even then as we saw last week might not matter), we're going to be capped at 700 all week if Macro's turn green and we're still at 700

Man whoever manages to pick the right week to play short term call options is gonna be hella lucky. Cause the spring is being compressed like crazy at this point. You gotta figure it's going to be a massive move when it does break out

The moment anyone shows up to buy ahead of earnings all this begins to unwind. That could be this week, next week, or 5 minutes from now.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The moment anyone shows up to buy ahead of earnings all this begins to unwind. That could be this week, next week, or 5 minutes from now.

Yup, really feels like a ticking timebomb.......except no ones knows the numbers on the clock

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Interesting thread about replacing radar in FSD since it has been brought up here a lot. How does this relate to TSLA? Looking at the thread, Tesla has some amazing AI talent, which makes TSLA worth even more.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1381654404885929984

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Yup, really feels like a ticking timebomb.......except no ones knows the numbers on the clock

This is as tight of a "certainty window" as I've ever seen for TSLA. We were already getting shoved down irrationally.....and then the P&D hit. Good time to be a TSLA investor with cash.

I'm contemplating selling the last of my Chamath SPAC stocks to ship into TSLA calls if we float near $700 all this week. I doubt we stay here now that earnings day is known and near.

 

[Todd Burch]

Another sign that Tesla's margins > competitors.

 

[StealthP3D]

Pretty soon we're gonna have our answer for the week. Macro's have been recovering for the past 45 mins while Tesla can't get back to it's high of the day. I think it's safe to say, barring any big news (which even then as we saw last week might not matter), we're going to be capped at 700 all week if Macro's turn green and we're still at 700

It's a mistake to think news is reflected in the share price in one day or one week or if the market didn't react instantly to the news that the news didn't matter. Most money in TSLA doesn't hang on on every little piece of new info as it's released. It's a long, slow consideration, it takes time for new information to become fully digested. The share price will often rise when you least expect it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It's a mistake to think news is reflected in the share price in one day or one week or if the market didn't react instantly to the news that the news didn't matter. Most money in TSLA doesn't hang on on every little piece of new info as it's released. It's a long, slow consideration, it takes time for new information to become fully digested. The share price will often rise when you least expect it.

Exactly. Hence why I was saying whoever picks the right week if they're playing short term calls.........is going to hit it big. But it's a total guessing game as to when that week will come.

 

[StealthP3D]

Just as I predicted well over a year ago, the Porsche Taycan is no match on the racetrack for the lowly Model 3 Performance:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1381324707811586049

 

[StealthP3D]

Exactly. Hence why I was saying whoever picks the right week if they're playing short term calls.........is going to hit it big. But it's a total guessing game as to when that week will come.

I was taking exception to your claim that it couldn't be this week if TSLA doesn't show more strength today.

 

[Mengy]

Most of the market is down today, but TSLA is not only holding up nicely but actually UP as well.

Feels like a turn in the tide running up to Q1 earnings. It will be interesting to see once the macros reverse if TSLA breaks out of the channel it's been stuck in for awhile now.