Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Words of HABIT]

It's funny how two people looking at the same data see two different things:

You see the $CAD going from $0.70 to $0.80 $USD.

I see the $CAD has remained more or less stable at about $0.77 $USD.

Is the recent move part of a longer term trend higher? Who knows, I have no reason to think it is. Everything fluctuates, what matters is long-term trends.

@StealthP3D, The rate of change of the exchange rate between CAD and USD can be significant, as I'm sure with most countries and the US. Twice in recent history, CAD was >110% of USD, in 2007 and again in 2011. When Tesla first produced the Model S, I could have purchased one for <$50k CAD (mind you it was the 40 kWh version, woulda, coulda, shoulda). Now the least expensive Model S is $115k CAD. US Citizens would come up to Canada and when dining using USD they would be offended that during these times, their US dollars were considered less valuable than Canadian dollars and would have to cough up more.

Will CAD go back up to $1.10 USD? Maybe. $0.77 USD historically may be too low. Regardless, for Canadians such as myself who have >95% of their investments in a different currency (US), this is something I think about from time to time. I don't find it funny to do so.

 

[Tslynk67]

Care to explain your disagree Lycanthrope? Options Expiration - Options Don't Expire on Fridays

Edit: I see you replied as I was posting

OK, so it's possible to exercise a call after the bell and of course an option holder can exercise OTM calls too, if they wish, but these are rather exceptions

So a bit a of grey area, I'll grant you - and I tend to close out my calls for 1c anyway, just to tidy things up and avoid any weirdness

 

[Tyler34]

OK, so it's possible to exercise a call after the bell and of course an option holder can exercise OTM calls too, if they wish, but these are rather exceptions

So a bit a of grey area, I'll grant you - and I tend to close out my calls for 1c anyway, just to tidy things up and avoid any weirdness

Oh I do too. The only reason I said anything is if someone on this forum that had 730 calls today is celebrating because they are going to get shares at a $10 discount later today and dont just close the position for the gain, and then the market manipulators push the after hours price down to $729.

 

[Singuy]

I think it's actually the other way around. Tesla defines the sector. Making it hard for anyone else to re-define it.

Others are just following the footsteps of Tesla, maybe adding a touch here and there. But ultimately, it's Tesla who's deciding the industry direction.

It's similar to how AAPL has led the development of smartphones for a while. Whatever AAPL does, the others follow. And it's not until very recent where other manufacturers started to venture onto other stuff that AAPL doesn't/hasn't gone. (like flex screen)

And even then, most are just niche or enhancement of that AAPL did.

From what I'm seeing, there is no other EV players, even established companies with plenty of resources who dares to do what Tesla hasn't in the grand scheme of things. Much of it, I think it has something to do with the scale that Tesla is doing with things. They plan everything to eventually be put onto millions of EVs out there. And for any small entity wishing to develop something amazing... the first question they are likely to encounter from a potential investor is "what is the scale of this product in the future?". And without a strong backing such as Tesla, it's difficult for any major breakthrough to happen outside of Tesla given Tesla is basically a synonym for EV. And if Tesla is not backing such technology, and EV is what the development of such product is destined for, that product just lost 20% of the market (or 80% in US)

Think you misunderstood what I mean by "out innovate the clone/stolen products". The clone and stolen products are clone of Tesla products produced by other manufactures years after Tesla's production. They are out innovating those(aka their own products) at lightning speed.

 

[pz1975]

I think his extrapolation is spot on.
as he once said: « I am always right, it’s even better when the others are wrong. »
his wife and mine became really good friends, she often talked with my wife about divorcing him, however she makes a tenth of the money he does, he fully paid their multimillion dollars home in upscale neighborhoo, she owns nothing. He created a full state of dependence for his wife and she is trapped them with 2 kids with an overly exigent husband that forces her to publish 4 scientific papers yearly. She has been getting into fights with her research assistants because she has been pressurized so much lately by him. His parents take care of their 2 young kids 90% of the time so they can train and do their research.
One of the best surgeons I know, one of the most prolific publisher in scientific papers, one of the worst husband I know and also a mediocre investor. The positive aspect is that it makes my wife realize how amazing I am of a husband, even when I am sleep deprived with crazy weeks on call, sleeping 3 hours a night. And she found out I am prolific investor in comparison. She became the strongest supporter of any move I do. I would announce her I sell all my TSLA shares and go full margin on Dogecoin and she would probably support me. Not.

Thanks everyone for the help, I think I’ll just ignore his investor madman ramblings from now on and the SP in 2-3 years will prove himself wrong. It’s just that I considered him a smart person and thought smart people could be convinced out of FUD. But when he said that Tesla Model 3 was overpriced for the quality defects and then he said he would like to have a Porsche Taycan, it became evident he was conflictual in his reasoning.

He sounds like the classic very smart person/Dunning-Kruger effect. combo. Because he is obviously very smart in at least a couple things (surgery, research) and maybe more, he thinks (knows) that he is smart in everything. This is a dangerous mindset and is probably why physicians are often looked at as jokes in the investment world as they often make stupid decision due to their arrogance in their own intelligence/wisdom. He is also the type that will rationalize the mistakes he makes in investing due to external factors and that one day he will still be right and never admit he was wrong. This is what TSLAQ continues to do as well.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/mkk98g

Anybody thinks this holds?

Meh. There's elements of truth in there, but it reeks of reddit/wsb sensationalism. Personally I think the discussion here is far more rational and the math more complete. People that refer to positive price action on good news when the float is merely tight as a "short squeeze".....usually don't know what they're talking about.

I think the float is super tight and than we're going to $850-$900 on earnings then maybe $1000-1200 over the summer. But that ain't a short squeeze. There is nearly zero chance of a true short squeeze on a $700B market cap company.

 

[StealthP3D]

Closed green on a Friday....been a little while since that happened.

Dang! Two whole weeks! Aren't we spoiled!

I don't see why we can't be worth more every week than we were the week before! Don't we deserve that?

 

[Ohmster]

agree 100%. My Cybr is my retirement present to myself and am planning to do exactly what you propose 2-3 years from now.

Not sure why I waited so long, but I put in my reservation for the tri-motor last night. I might be driving to Texas for the CT before my Plaid+ arrives! But same idea. Fly out. Drive back. Will be a gas. Not.

Munros New ID4 review just out:

WOW: He really digs into VW: He actually gets furious with the navigation. He couldn't get it to work.

It is becomming clear that Munro is suffering from Tesla withdrawal syndrome, specifically re. tech.
Pre-Tesla the ID4 might have gotten a better review from, but now he finds the UI to be slow, UN-intuitive and outright annoying. He reaches peak irritation when it turns out that the map he spent precious minutes trying to get working is available, but only using voice commands: "I asked for the damn thing to turn on the map, but I didn't address it properly!" Dripping with scorn.
Once you go Tesla...

Fabulous ending statement. "Tesla has no worries". Unfortunately, rest of video played off like a grumpy old man.....

 

[Knightshade]

Dang! Two whole weeks! Aren't we spoiled!

I don't see why we can't be worth more every week than we were the week before! Don't we deserve that?

2 weeks ago the market was closed Friday- so no we did not close green on Friday 2 weeks ago- we weren't even open.

It's almost like there was a reason I used that specific word or something

 

[ZsoZso]

That tweet by Gary really clarified something that I didn't know until he posted that.

Namely, G.B. is still long TSLA.

A slight correction: this demonstrates that G.B. is still now / again long TSLA.

 

[dhanson865]

Good news for Tesla:

Car shoppers should expect high prices and limited inventory this spring

Consumer demand and manufacturing snags — a shortage of microchips — have led to an inventory squeeze in both the new- and used-car markets.

www.cnbc.com

'Average price of a new car is about $40,000'

The delta in this graph between used and trade in screams at me but trying to write a paragraph about who should gain from it became to complicated to finish.

 

[Nocturnal]

Autotrader - page unavailable

You can't make this sugar up. The 10 best EVs (it's not like there are so many) and guess what famous EV company isn't on the list?

OT: Today may be the day everyone looks back on as a major turning point for SpaceX. Exclusivity clearly demonstrates the U.S. government acknowledges them as top dog.

This is an absolute nuclear bomb dropped on top of Blue Origin. A huge, demoralizing miss. Well, Bezos now has extra time on his hands to shake things up.

This tweet by Elon last week now seems like it could have been risky.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1380781539647053826

It's more than that even. It's a turning point for the United States (I really wanted to say America but I appreciate the feelings of our N and S American neighbors). Returning to the moon via a new public/private partnership is amazing. This country only works when we have a common enemy, or a common aspirational goal. You decide which one of those "The Moon" is.

 

[Johnny Ma]

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/mkk98g

Anybody thinks this holds?

VERY interesting post.

One thing that's a red (or pehaps yellow) flag for me is this reddit user posts on twitter under a different handle. And used to post here on ANOTHER different handle. And they're using their own accounts to amplify their own message without acknowledging they're the same person.

That's all I'm going to say in this thread about it.

Edit: Would be nice if this reddit poster would come (back) to discuss their post here. Like I said, it's VERY interesting.

 

[StealthP3D]

@StealthP3D, The rate of change of the exchange rate between CAD and USD can be significant, as I'm sure with most countries and the US. Twice in recent history, CAD was >110% of USD, in 2007 and again in 2011. When Tesla first produced the Model S, I could have purchased one for <$50k CAD (mind you it was the 40 kWh version, woulda, coulda, shoulda). Now the least expensive Model S is $115k CAD. US Citizens would come up to Canada and when dining using USD they would be offended that during these times, their US dollars were considered less valuable than Canadian dollars and would have to cough up more.

Will CAD go back up to $1.10 USD? Maybe. $0.77 USD historically may be too low. Regardless, for Canadians such as myself who have >95% of their investments in a different currency (US), this is something I think about from time to time. I don't find it funny to do so.

View attachment 654364

All I was saying is that you saw the highest high and the lowest low and I saw the middle. Yet none of that informs us which direction it may go in the future.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'd like to see Tesla offer a Mr. Fusion option.

Or, maybe Elon could improve upon the Oscillation Over-thruster for those customers who can't wait for Boring tunnels?

​

That DeLorean still requires gas to run the ICE though. Only the flux capacitor is powered by Mr. Fusion.

 

[JusRelax]

Does anyone know where the original Sandy Munro presentation video that Solving the Money Problem references in this youtube clip is from?

 

[ammulder]

So I'm a bit confused on the SpaceX/moon lander news. According to the NASA release, it will launch with the SLS with the astronauts in the Orion spacecraft... but the moon landing will be handled by Starship? It this thing going to launch with both an Orion and a Starship? Is that sensible? Is there some good reason I'm not seeing to keep two astronauts in orbit instead of just having the astronauts in Starship to begin with and have it land them all on the moon?

 

[Words of HABIT]

All I was saying is that you saw the highest high and the lowest low and I saw the middle. Yet none of that informs us which direction it may go in the future.

Your 0.77 CAD/USD middle is lower than my middle. Agree past does not represent future, although from 17 year history, it appears the CAD is trending higher to be in the 0.85 CAD/USD range.

 

[Curt Renz]

Autotrader - page unavailable

You can't make this sugar up. The 10 best EVs (it's not like there are so many) and guess what famous EV company isn't on the list?
...

No Teslas on the list??? Autotrader makes it appear that it is a pay-to-play syndicate, without sincere interest in properly informing its readers. It's advertisers all seem to be auto dealerships. It looks as though Autotrader is able to track a reader's location, and only post ads for local dealers. Enough said.

 

[StealthP3D]

2 weeks ago the market was closed Friday- so no we did not close green on Friday 2 weeks ago- we weren't even open.

It's almost like there was a reason I used that specific word or something

Was it to try to make something seem like something it was not?

Do you pride yourself on using technicalities to create a false impression?