Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jdw]

...
While we’re at it, do you know any way to pay lower fees than the terrible 4.25%-0.50% (3.75%) interest rate charged by National Bank of my margin? I still have some to pay back and I don’t know if it’s worth trying opening an interactive brokers account with a 1.25% interest rate on US margin. I don’t know if it is even possible for Canadians to open an account in the US. 2.5% could be the 3rd best saving tip down the road

IKBR has a Canadian operation (based in Montreal) and they offer the same rates & services as the US side. They also have great forex rates that make Norberts gambit unnecessary. Their interest rates are low on Portfolio Margin accounts, but their margin requirements are tighter than most (TSLA was at 80% the last while) and they don't really do margin calls, they can sell your investments with little notice. Not a company to go really deep on margin with, but overall, much better services & features than Canadian banks.

If you do the gambit, you need a stock/fund that is listed in both currencies, one that you do not own any of (to avoid cost basis issues) and one that ideally has little to no price movement.

 

[traxila]

All my TSLA was bought through my USD margin account. about 10% still on margin.
I guess the most efficient way to sell it would be to sell it in the US Margin account, then use the Norbert gambit to buy DLR.U and get it transferred to the CAD margin account and then sell it under the CAD account to avoid the 2% forEx fee.

seems better to me than transferring TSLA directly from US margin account to CAD margin account and sell it there gradually.

I have used TransferWise now known as 'Wise' multiple times for international transfers, especially for Euros. If I recall correctly, the savings were on the order of 90% in fees. They do it by never actually moving the money through Forex. Instead they do internal accounting and move the money they already have in the target country domestically.

Think they are on par with Norbert's Gambit when one includes time spent overall, but of course this depends on the amounts and I cannot say with certainty.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

there was a blurb someone posted in the past that was ready made to address most of the issues out there against EV's in general, and Tesla in particular. Anyone happen to have a link to that post?

I too could use a good blurb right about now. Seriously, I’ve been going back and forth a little bit with anti-EVers on Nextdoor.

 

[Prunesquallor]

And the Nebula Award for Geekiest Sci-Fi Dork goes to...


You have had some great references — this one is a deep cut. Respect.

Since this is in context of moon missions, go with the master:
In Heinlein's “The Man who Sold the Moon”, industrialist D. D. Harriman convinces a soft-drink company to help bankroll his moon mission by pointing out one of their rivals could fashion a product logo on the lunar surface visible from earth.

Also, in the futuristic storyline of “Cloud Atlas”, the Japanese are using gigantic laser projectors to image advertising on the new moon.

 

[Prunesquallor]

This Billionaire Investor Thinks Elon Musk Will Be A ‘Trillion Dollar Man’ — Forbes

Money manager Ron Baron has been delivering stellar returns thanks to one of the biggest holdings in Tesla. Here’s why he thinks Musk’s SpaceX will be even bigger.

apple.news

“He’s perhaps the best engineer on the planet,” Baron says of Musk. “I expect he’ll be the world’s first trillionaire.”

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

If you switch to private banking, you will get much better forex rates. You need a certain net worth to qualify for private banking, but it isn’t that high and you probably qualify. That is easier than doing the Norbert gambit.

For margin rates, I would ask your brokerage directly if they will lower your rates. I did that a couple years ago and was changed to prime. If they won’t, threaten to move and they will probably make the change for you. I’m with Scotia iTrade.

What sort of a margin rate did you manage to get with iTrade ? feel free to PM me if you don't feel comfortable posting it here. Thanks

 

[Scuttlebutt]

You may also want to have a look at xe.com.
Very competitive when you have to exchange currencies or transfer money internationally.
I guarantee you will never want to use banks anymore.

I have been using World Remit to send USD to convert to Peso's in the Philippines for several years. The rates are comparable to WISE, but the money is there in a few minutes. My debit card to my wife's bank account in a jiffy. $10,000 limit per transaction.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I too could use a good blurb right about now. Seriously, I’ve been going back and forth a little bit with anti-EVers on Nextdoor.

I post on nextdoor as well about Tesla. After nearly no feedback, someone typically replies with an intelligent comment on how nobody will understand. But I do it anyway, I warn folks about to buy a new ICE. It bothers me that it delays transition, but bothers me more that people could know about this trap but are not shown that info. (Vehicle depreciation, or even inflation on energy). I do this with energy too. People on there shooting down all solar in Az. Same players actually. Suspicious to me.

 

[Discoducky]

Please excuse me, but I'm going to use your post to answer a long standing issue that TSLA bulls face. When asked by well-intentioned friends and family about the risk of investing in TSLA or buying Tesla products, I've long struggled with an answer that won't lose their focus after just 10 seconds, let alone 10 minutes! That's why they follow the news, because it's presented in small digestible sound-bites!

There's really no short answer more appropriate than, "you've been deceived".

30-second expansion of the initial 2 second answer.
- they've been deceived by the reporter regurgitating bad info from another report.
- they've been deceived by the originating author citing reports that were flawed by design.
- they've been deceived by the reports omitting contradictory facts to spin a narrative.

And then for answers that need to dig deeper into the details (and need more time), there was a blurb someone posted in the past that was ready made to address most of the issues out there against EV's in general, and Tesla in particular. Anyone happen to have a link to that post?

I like it and usually distill it further by just saying

"you've been spoon fed cherry-picked data manipulation"

This can be used as an answer to every single bear argument I've been faced with.

Fun story: I was sitting at an offsite dinner with my coworkers, some managers and a few high up VP's from my current company and to my left sat someone whom I deeply respected as they were instrumental in helping me foster AI innovation. This was the VP in my org who then launches into a huge Tesla bear argument when someone mentioned they were thinking of getting a Tesla. This VP didn't know my background from Tesla, but many of the folks at the table did who started smiling and giggling. This VP starts to talk about some of the more infamous bear arguments like Elon is a fake, parking lots full of unsellable Tesla's...blah blah. I'm happy to listen to this as it is entertaining, but a coworker stops the VP and says, "that person sitting by your side used to work at Tesla". Well, the VP continues as they are very certain of their bear argument. As I deeply respect this person, I let them continue as I'm looking for something novel or a unique perspective that I haven't heard before. >5 minutes later it has not occurred and my coworkers are already chiming in defending the bull case as a few have Tesla's. So, they start a back and forth while looking at me and I'm biting my tongue, but I'm generous and say "I'm all for allowing time to tell". That was 2017 and even though it was hard to sit there and hear the bear argument, it prompted many at the table to talk to me and in the following months and years about everyone one of my coworkers eventually bought into Tesla in some way or another. And that VP, while they left the org a year later, was still a Tesla bear as of 2020.

 

[Unpilot]

"Time will tell" I love it...so true.

 

[lklundin]

I think the size of the touch area might have been reduced during a recent update as I also struggle to get the those screens up for tire pressure and trip meters, but they are certainly still available if you can swipe in the right spot.

After having tried about different about 20 tiny variations of a touch or swipe that would each fail by either bringing up the rear view camera or rotate the visualization of the car I cannot rule out that it does not work on my screen. But I can say with absolute certainty that the user experience is bad.

Now, is there a way to calibrate the (Model 3) touch screen?

 

[lklundin]

This Billionaire Investor Thinks Elon Musk Will Be A ‘Trillion Dollar Man’ — Forbes

Money manager Ron Baron has been delivering stellar returns thanks to one of the biggest holdings in Tesla. Here’s why he thinks Musk’s SpaceX will be even bigger.

apple.news

“He’s perhaps the best engineer on the planet,” Baron says of Musk. “I expect he’ll be the world’s first trillionaire.”

For perspective the World has only about two dozen countries with a - granted - annual GDP greater than that.

If Elon Musk's (unrealized) gains would make him a trillionaire Bernie Sanders would go absolutely crazy - and I guess a fair number of teslanaires would be actual billionaires...

 

[Curt Renz]

Weekend OT.

Neighbor lady came down to ask me about my Tesla and how I like it a few weeks ago.
Yesterday she stopped by to let me know she is heading out for a test drive.

Because she and I live in a state that does not allow direct sales she has to drive to a different state for the test drive.
I am confident she will be buying a MY after the test drive.

Think about that for a second...she has to drive to another state to test drive a car.
The sooner the power of the dealer network dies the better.

Now think of the power that we all have as “influencers” ....do all you can to spread the good news that is Tesla.

Hasten the demise of those bastages.

The strongest persuasion, is grounded in the beliefs of an idea’s adversaries. The states that prohibit direct sales of Tesla vehicles, are almost always Republican bastions of conservatism. The American conservative movement counts as one of its foundational tenets, free market economies.


“There are no limits to what free men, free women, and free markets can accomplish.” –Jack Kemp. ...

“We who live in free market societies believe that growth, prosperity, and ultimately human fulfillment are created from the bottom up, not the government down.” –Ronald Reagan.

“Free men and free women living in free market societies ought to be endowed with a freedom to choose; a freedom to create their own fulfillment.” –JB Leonard

I first posted this here in 2013, but it deserves a repeat: Tesla vs. "Rent Seekers"

Excerpts:

...Rent seekers are individuals or organizations that have succeeded with existing business models and look to the government and regulators as their first line of defense against innovative competition. They use government regulation and lawsuits to keep out new entrants with more innovative business models. They use every argument from public safety to lack of quality or loss of jobs to lobby against the new entrants. Rent seekers spend money to increase their share of an existing market instead of creating new products or markets. The key idea is that rent seeking behavior creates nothing of value.

These barriers to new innovative entrants are called economic rent. Examples of economic rent include state automobile franchise laws, taxi medallion laws, limits on charter schools, auto, steel or sugar tariffs, patent trolls, bribery of government officials, corruption and regulatory capture. They’re all part of the same pattern – they add no value to the economy and prevent innovation from reaching the consumer...

...According to the Gallup Poll American consumers view car salesman as dead last in honesty and ethics. Yet when Tesla provided consumers with a direct sales alternative, the rent seekers – the National Auto Dealers Association turned its lobbyists loose on State Legislatures robbing consumers in North Carolina, New York and Texas of choice in the marketplace.

In these states it appears innovation be damned if it gets in the way of a rent seeker with a good lobbyist.

Much like Paypal, it’s likely that after forcing Tesla to win these state-by-state battles, the auto dealers will have found that they dealt themselves the losing hand...

 

[Tim S]

After having tried about different about 20 tiny variations of a touch or swipe that would each fail by either bringing up the rear view camera or rotate the visualization of the car I cannot rule out that it does not work on my screen. But I can say with absolute certainty that the user experience is bad.

Now, is there a way to calibrate the (Model 3) touch screen?

Try rebooting... hold both steering wheel buttons down with your thumbs for a few seconds.

If you still can't get it to work, request mobile service through the app.

 

[hacer]

Care to explain your disagree Lycanthrope? Options Expiration - Options Don't Expire on Fridays

Edit: I see you replied as I was posting

It is unfortunate that the web is full of out-of-date information (such as your link above). Equity options do expire on Fridays. It used to be Saturday but that changed for all listed (i.e. standard) options expiring after Feb 1, 2015. See OCC rules change for the SEC's approval of the rule change.

The close price will determine the automatic exercise of in-the-money options. All options in-the-money at the exchange reported closing price are automatically exercised unless the option holder (buyer) instructs otherwise. At any time before the exercise notice deadline (typically Friday 3pm but check with your broker) the U.S. equity option holder can exercise the option regardless of the stock price. The actual contract expiration time is 11:59pm on Friday but exercising late on Friday is pretty much only available to OCC members and those members virtually never extended that advantage to their customers (e.g. retail investors).

 

[AudubonB]

Some very good answers to this now nigh decade-long question.

One of my responses (I tailor them to my perception of the audience):
"I own seven vehicles*. Five of them have internal combustion engines; two are full electric. As of spring 2022, the youngest one has been in the fleet for four years so I have very good knowledge of how each of them performs.

The two EVs are our go-to choices for all the right reasons: performance, total cost of ownership, cost of energizing AND utter ease of energizing....and that is even in our specific situation wherein we keep on site fuel depots of gasoline and diesel. The others are used ONLY for very specific chores."

Backstory for this thread:
*Why seven, you ask? Because in 2020, due to reasons brought on by the pandemic, we sold off three and those seven are what remains. Of them, one, two or three are yet on the chopping block but haven't sold. The remainder non-EVs include the F-350 pickup - our Model X can't haul everything we need; one of our tour vans, and the Toyota LandCruisers, which we have for sentimental/restoration/rarity/reasons, as they are collectors' items....but we're looking to diminish or eliminate them, too. And if and when the Cybertruck becomes feasible for Alaska, then the F-350 goes away as well.

 

[CLK350]

i'm aware of Peelen. he's posted many great analyses of Tesla.

i never said there was anything malicious about the post. many people post with many different handles. it's fine.

my point was, believe me or not, the person amplifying the reddit post is doing so without acknowledging that they're the one that wrote it.

it's like if i wrote a story, then got on another account and said, "hey everyone, look at this awesome story!"

Does that make sense?

One possibility could be keeping the Peelen "trademark" clean: if it were authored by Peelen, then he would have to respond and engage into any discussion at the Peelen standard. That might be too time consuming, he's already given out much of his work for free, and has his MBA to keep him busy. As deshkart or whatever there are no such obligations.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/mkk98g

Anybody thinks this holds?

For reference, @deshkart post above spelling out the possibility of a coming infinite squeeze, linked to Reddit.

" Incoming Tesla Infinity Squeeze

TL;DR: A bit of DD for those wondering about what's going on with TSLA's recent sharp rise: a dramatic contraction of the "free float", which could trigger episodes of delta-hedging and short covering fueled positive feedback loops, also known as an "Infinity Squeeze.
... "

Note that __TESLA__ on Reddit also called the previous short squeeze of last summer prior to Tesla's 5:1 masterful split(a) on Reddit's WallStreetBets

Might be fun, IF this is the case, to also help accelerate the squeeze by buying more chairs - for those that are not all in and more already - or help generate a stampede of retail guys GME style on the WallStreetBets forum

Are we on the brink of another run up - to the moon-, then? I don't have the chops to do a good analysis of that Incoming Infinity Squeeze post, but it sounds very credible to me, esp considering he also called the previous short squeeze. I did go all in, starting last week Friday.


(a) Re the previous short squeeze of last summer:

For those who joined recently and are not aware of it, last year's unexpected 5:1 TSLA split was a genius way to catch the naked shorts with their uh shorts down - and extract a $5B cash penalty for doing so. Someone correct me if I'm wrong (b), in a nutshell as the stock soared and Tesla is the only entity who can generate new (registered, real, official) stock, the naked shorts were unable to cover/ deliver stocks they were supposed to have borrowed.

This showed up when chaos ensued in the next few days after the split, as many financial institutions were unable to correctly account for their clients' revised Tesla share counts.

To restore order, Tesla then issued new stock, sold at near ATH prices to those institutions, probably naked shorts accomplices, so they could balance their accounts. Genius move from Hiro Mizuno & Zach Kirkhorn -and Elon of course who hired them in the first place of course.

This is not too polished and may need some corrections - if anyone knows of a good write up I'd love to know about it.

 

[dm28997]

One possibility could be keeping the Peelen "trademark" clean: if it were authored by Peelen, then he would have to respond and engage into any discussion at the Peelen standard. That might be too time consuming, he's already given out much of his work for free, and has his MBA to keep him busy. As deshkart or whatever there are no such obligations.




For reference, @deshkart post above spelling out the possibility of a coming infinite squeeze, linked to Reddit.

" Incoming Tesla Infinity Squeeze

TL;DR: A bit of DD for those wondering about what's going on with TSLA's recent sharp rise: a dramatic contraction of the "free float", which could trigger episodes of delta-hedging and short covering fueled positive feedback loops, also known as an "Infinity Squeeze.
... "

Note that __TESLA__ on Reddit also called the previous short squeeze of last summer prior to Tesla's 5:1 masterful split(a) on Reddit's WallStreetBets

Might be fun, IF this is the case, to also help accelerate the squeeze by buying more chairs - for those that are not all in and more already - or help generate a stampede of retail guys GME style on the WallStreetBets forum

Are we on the brink of another run up - to the moon-, then? I don't have the chops to do a good analysis of that Incoming Infinity Squeeze post, but it sounds very credible to me, esp considering he also called the previous short squeeze. I did go all in, starting last week Friday.


(a) Re the previous short squeeze of last summer:

For those who joined recently and are not aware of it, last year's unexpected 5:1 TSLA split was a genius way to catch the naked shorts with their uh shorts down - and extract a $5B cash penalty for doing so. Someone correct me if I'm wrong (b), in a nutshell as the stock soared and Tesla is the only entity who can generate new (registered, real, official) stock, the naked shorts were unable to cover/ deliver stocks they were supposed to have borrowed.

This showed up when chaos ensued in the next few days after the split, as many financial institutions were unable to correctly account for their clients' revised Tesla share counts.

To restore order, Tesla then issued new stock, sold at near ATH prices to those institutions, probably naked shorts accomplices, so they could balance their accounts. Genius move from Hiro Mizuno & Zach Kirkhorn -and Elon of course who hired them in the first place of course.

This is not too polished and may need some corrections - if anyone knows of a good write up I'd love to know about it.

I smell a big jump in the SP at any time in the next few weeks. Wouldn't it be awesome to see a stock split at the same time! More good news keeps on coming. BTW Munro discussed new unidentified molecular structure in Tesla's parts which put them light years ahead of any competition.
To the Moon and then Mars indeed.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

After having tried about different about 20 tiny variations of a touch or swipe that would each fail by either bringing up the rear view camera or rotate the visualization of the car I cannot rule out that it does not work on my screen. But I can say with absolute certainty that the user experience is bad.

Now, is there a way to calibrate the (Model 3) touch screen?

I hear ya. It used to be MUCH easier. The recent change to allow rotating the car visualization kind of nerfed the swipe-left-for-tire-pressure. Half the time I end up rotating the car image (even though I know roughly where my swipe needs to start - harder to aim when the car is in motion though).

Hope this helps: Difficulty swiping trip and tire pressure cards in new driving visualisation

 

[MP3Mike]

I smell a big jump in the SP at any time in the next few weeks. Wouldn't it be awesome to see a stock split at the same time!

A stock split is not gonna happen until sometime after there is a stockholder vote to authorize issuing additional shares. (Which I would expect to occur at the annual stockholders meeting in July.)