Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JayNT]

It comes down to this:

Tesla is a thinking person's car. Some are ill-equipped for ownership.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Naming a product Autopilot gives the impression it can operate by itself. When a company constantly advertises it close to to FSD, one can expect the masses to leap ahead and do stupid tricks like in Houston or on Youtube. I wander what effect has this accident had on the next Beta FSD release. Of course Tesla does not want people putting themselves at risk doing these "tricks" and should be commended by keeping a tight lease on who gets future Beta FSD releases.

 

[lafrisbee]

Regarding words, names and trademarks -

First - and I do say this not with humility but with pride - I think that most here recognize, and some acknowledge, that I wear the mantle of TMC’s word maven. The most “Disagrees” I’ve ever garnered was, in fact, for a post in which I declared “Words matter.”

Now, I understand, appreciate but disagree with the crux of @jbcarioca’s post. @Unpilot, @StealthP3D, @Krugerrand and others disagree for different reasons; mine are encompassed in my reasonably longstanding Sig-line. In that the new TMC format truncates signatures, I’m repeating it in-post:

”To NHTSA, NTSB and German Courts: Ban the deceptive word ‘Automobile’!”

Now, before someone jumps in with historical claims of intent: no - you cannot claim that “auto” means “horseless”, because it does not, regardless of whether that was indeed the intent of the word’s originators. However, even if you wish to take that line, it thereupon opens the use of the prefix to mean exactly what Tesla chooses it to mean.

And yes, I am being tongue-in-cheek with my call for proscription. Rather, I am using my line’s obvious facetiousness to shame them for their two-facedness. It is utterly incumbent to the point that ===>NO<=== deviation must occur upon those in authority and those charged with upholding and interpreting the law that they remain consistent in their dictates and terminology. One cannot, I aver, turn a blind eye to the idiocy of “automobile” and then proscribe “autopilot”.

With that, I would address @jbcarioca’s concerns by suggesting that rather than capitulating and altering its name, there should be a movement, one in which Mr Musk should aggressively participate, to excoriate those criticizing “autopilot” by revealing this double standard - this duplicity.

Seems to me the annoyance you have with the Germans would be with the autobahn, meinFurher.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

I know there's nothing wrong with the name "Autopilot". But changing the name would disarm Tesla's enemies of one of their favorite weapons -- permanently ending one of the most common lines of attack. The cost to Tesla would be mild inconvenience. It's an easy win, objectively. But petty pride stand in the way of actually taking that road. Most people would rather FEEL strong and beat their chest stubbornly rather than actually BE strong and do the smart, pragmatic thing that would negatively impact their emotions for a moment, but ultimately move them closer to achieving their long-term goals.

Making actual, real-world large scale change requires intelligent choices that remove roadblocks from the path. Standing there yelling that the roadblock has no right to be there -- even correctly -- is the dumb thing to do. It makes one feel superior, but it is ultimately a weak course of action that accomplishes nothing.

We've been entrenched in the dumb "autopilot" name debate for YEARS. So rip the rug out from under Tesla's opponents. Problem solved. Force THEM to scramble and do the work to find some other tool to attack with, make THEM have to do the work of establishing some new negative narrative. Put THEM on the defensive and in a position of having to build a new obstacle somewhere else further down the path. It would cost Tesla practically nothing.

That's how to move forward on this if one cares more about the long-term goals than one's own ego.

Not sure it is pride standing in the way.
Should Tesla reward the bullying of the FUDsters (by caving and changing the name)? Being timid is not how you make bullies stop. Winning is.

 

[Hock1]

The issue with the 25 new EVs in four years is the internal resistance at Toyota to EVs. Unless they have an outside partner that's pro-EV I don't see it happening--at least not on a large scale. I doubt that they will partner with Tesla because the last partnership didn't pan out. My understanding is that it was mainly due to Toyota wanting design changes that Tesla didn't have the capacity for. I would expect the same problem is there today because Tesla can sell all the cars it makes with their own designs. Adding third party designs would just slow things up.

A few questions:
Do you think that Tesla can grow enough to complete "the mission" on its own in any reasonable time frame? Or, alternatively, do you think that any of the legacy companies that are trying to get BEV tech up to speed, will do so quickly enough to help the mission in any meaningful way? If Tesla does not "lend" its technology superiority to Toyota (or any other legacy manufacturer), then who will? Please name these companies that are capable? With Tesla's undisputed and unchallenged superiority, time is of the essence for everyone.

 

[lafrisbee]

MarketWatch - this morning: Mizuho Boosts TSLA Price Target

Excerpt:

Rakesh reiterated his buy rating but raised his stock price target to $820, which implies a 15% gain off Monday’s closing price, from $775.

Monday close at $775? either that is an old article, or their old Price target.

 

[jbcarioca]

Regarding words, names and trademarks -

...

With that, I would address @jbcarioca’s concerns by suggesting that rather than capitulating and altering its name, there should be a movement, one in which Mr Musk should aggressively participate, to excoriate those criticizing “autopilot” by revealing this double standard - this duplicity.

I do admire your consistency and well-argued appeal to consistency even though I know that language is a living think so words constantly change in meaning. Those of us who are doomed to miscommunicate in more than one language have copies examples. I offer one only:
Exquisite in English. Esquisito in Portuguese. Both have the same etymology from the Latin 'to see out' but it means 'weird' in one language and 'unusually beautiful' in another.

Thus we come to truly bizarre prefix such as 'auto' which came from the Greek for 'self' or 'independent'.
Obviously such etymology makes obvious sense with automobile, since the vehicle and locomotion were internal to itself not implying navigation. Autopilot, correspondingly, received that name in 1912 when Lawrence Sperry invented it. the 'auto' prefix indicated that it reduced the workload of the human pilot.

The Greek easily accommodated such uses. However the word automatic came accurately from the Greek for 'acting of one's own will'.

Rigidity in use of words and their definitions is not possible in a living language. We rail and flail trying to prevent misinterpretation of the Tesla Autopilot or even Full Self Driving. How the common people understand those words is different. That we must accept rather than defeat the practice.

In practice even the French, Spanish, Portuguese, Japanese and soon have all pretty much given up on language purity.

Back to Tesla. I suggest practicality, not purity. We all know words that are now considered profane or derogatory that were simply descriptive or complimentary a few years ago.

I only suggest the term Autopilot has been redefined to mean 'ability to act as a human driver without supervision', more or less as the Level 5 definition. Thus, the name should change because preservation is a losing battle. Rather like 'aspirin', for example.

 

[Curt Renz]

ABC - this morning: Subaru - Engine & Suspension Recall

Excerpt:

Subaru is recalling nearly 875,000 cars and SUVs in the U.S. because the engines can stall or a rear suspension part can fall off.

The stalling recall covers more than 466,000 Crosstrek SUVs from 2018 and 2019 and Impreza cars from 2017 through 2019. The company says in government documents that a computer can power the ignition coil after the car is shut off. That can cause a short circuit.

Dealers will update the software, replace ignition coils and if necessary install a new front exhaust pipe. The recall is to start May 28.

The suspension recall affects more than 408,000 2018 and 2019 Crosstreks and 2019 Foresters. Some rear stabilizer bar bolts can loosen and detach, increasing the risk of a crash.

 

[Curt Renz]

Monday close at $775? either that is an old article, or their old Price target.

New article - old price target of $775 written at sentence end after new price target of $820. The wording may have been a bit clumsy, but that is what was meant.

 

[AudubonB]

I do admire your consistency and well-argued appeal to consistency even though I know that language is a living think so words constantly change in meaning. Those of us who are doomed to miscommunicate in more than one language have copies examples. I offer one only:
Exquisite in English. Esquisito in Portuguese. Both have the same etymology from the Latin 'to see out' but it means 'weird' in one language and 'unusually beautiful' in another.

Thus we come to truly bizarre prefix such as 'auto' which came from the Greek for 'self' or 'independent'.
Obviously such etymology makes obvious sense with automobile, since the vehicle and locomotion were internal to itself not implying navigation. Autopilot, correspondingly, received that name in 1912 when Lawrence Sperry invented it. the 'auto' prefix indicated that it reduced the workload of the human pilot.

The Greek easily accommodated such uses. However the word automatic came accurately from the Greek for 'acting of one's own will'.

Rigidity in use of words and their definitions is not possible in a living language. We rail and flail trying to prevent misinterpretation of the Tesla Autopilot or even Full Self Driving. How the common people understand those words is different. That we must accept rather than defeat the practice.

In practice even the French, Spanish, Portuguese, Japanese and soon have all pretty much given up on language purity.

Back to Tesla. I suggest practicality, not purity. We all know words that are now considered profane or derogatory that were simply descriptive or complimentary a few years ago.

I only suggest the term Autopilot has been redefined to mean 'ability to act as a human driver without supervision', more or less as the Level 5 definition. Thus, the name should change because preservation is a losing battle. Rather like 'aspirin', for example.

An exquisite response. Obrigado, meu irmāo.

 

[Krugerrand]

Emotionally I agree. However, the better technology becomes the easier using it becomes. That certainly is the case with aircraft as it is with automobiles and computers. "Dumbing down" iOS the process that allows broader acceptance; it is making operation easier and more intuitive while being less error prone. I suspect you'd agree with all that.

The problem I'm thinking about is just vocabulary. Nothing in my statements suggested dictating who does what. It does suggest making as much as possible easier to understand to poorly informed people. It has nothing to do with what is often called Political Correctnesss. It has to do with easy communication.

Many of us, are disagreeing with me, almost of of you are ones I respect. We do, I think, have an obligation to better understand the people buying Tesla products who are not Weill-informed, thoughtful or even well-disciplined. To wit: the early adopters, like most of us, are being joined by the 'hoi polloi'. How should Tesla cope with that transition?

Dumbing Down: making complex products usable by the mass market.

I think our disagreement is based on what we believe about humans at a core philosophical basis. I think too stupid to live is a valid stance for life.

This isn’t rocket science. You’re responsible for the operation of the vehicle at this time in history. You have to acknowledge that in vehicle before being allowed to operate it. That’s not complex regardless what the system is called. Call it Chocolate Doughnuts for all it matters.

English is a peculiar language. Has always been peculiar. Not Tesla’s fault people are purposefully obtuse, refusing to understand a word like autopilot and ultimately refusing to be responsible for their own actions.

So no, I don’t think we have to try and understand every potential buyer. Most don’t know what they need until it’s shown to them. Many fall for this ridiculous FUD and parrot it like it’s true. Tesla does enough hand holding as it is, imo. They aren’t responsible for changing people. The fact they’re trying to change the world doesn’t mean they should be held to some ridiculous level of responsibility. That’s what you’re advocating. I’m wholly against it because too stupid to live is a core belief for me. I own that.

 

[canoemore]

One of the reasons I'm invested in TSLA is because I think they stand a good chance of making this entire argument about Autopilot semantics totally irrelevant in the near future.

 

[capster]

Maybe Elon will announce that his sons will take TSLA private with their recent gains on Doge.

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This begs the question: What does Elon consider a "little" rig?

 

[jerry33]

A few questions:
Do you think that Tesla can grow enough to complete "the mission" on its own in any reasonable time frame? Or, alternatively, do you think that any of the legacy companies that are trying to get BEV tech up to speed, will do so quickly enough to help the mission in any meaningful way? If Tesla does not "lend" its technology superiority to Toyota (or any other legacy manufacturer), then who will? Please name these companies that are capable? With Tesla's undisputed and unchallenged superiority, time is of the essence for everyone.

1. No. Others will have to help.
2. No. Legacy companies have too much debt, too much internal resistance, and the need to maintain dividends to keep investors invested. Even if Tesla gave them the technology, they wouldn't have the capital to use it as it was meant to be used.
3. We'll have to look for startups, likely from China and India. North America is mostly a lost cause for new startups due to politics and the entrenched fossil fuel lobbyists.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Aren't you expecting a sell off after earnings - hopefully very short term?!

I was expecting a selloff from $950 in mid-May back to $750-800, but now that SO MUCH energy is being expended on the front end, I think we're more likely to see a post-earnings explosion.

They're holding TSLA to $750 last week, $800 this week, and $[X] next week because that's the logical route as of today. I think the inputs to the algos are gonna change a lot Monday and the SP rise won't be something they can contain.

Gotta remember what goes with FUD.....an equal amount of naked shorting. It's a 1-2 punch and the shorting needs to unwind. I'm sure they're unwinding intra-day and from day-to-day, but not nearly enough to be even remotely covered come Tuesday.

We shall see. It's all a guessing game obviously.

 

[lafrisbee]

Naming a product Autopilot gives the impression it can operate by itself. When a company constantly advertises it close to to FSD, one can expect the masses to leap ahead and do stupid tricks like in Houston or on Youtube. I wander what effect has this accident had on the next Beta FSD release. Of course Tesla does not want people putting themselves at risk doing these "tricks" and should be commended by keeping a tight lease on who gets future Beta FSD releases.

lol, you have not made an intelligent decision by referring to the Fatal tesla tx crash as a "stupid trick". The cop did the same thing. Any LEO that had been first on the scene of that event would have surmised that the driver had been able to exit the vehicle before it became engulfed in flames, and had fled. And a search for that individual would have been initiated. The limited time I was associated with law enforcement on the municipal level was in one where the LEO's consistently looked for a "Bad Guy." As in if a person has a tail light out check for warrants and a DUI in progress. The affluence of the neighborhood may have an influence over this officer, but to disregard the scene as anything other than an accident where the driver fled the scene is not within the assessment of a normal law enforcement officer.
I believe a thorough investigation will find the driver is very closely related to the victim(s), and is still very much alive.

 

[woodisgood]

Hard to see today of all days passing by without something. Not that I want to stoke expectations. Maybe AH.

 

[Scuttlebutt]

1. No. Others will have to help.
2. No. Legacy companies have too much debt, too much internal resistance, and the need to maintain dividends to keep investors invested. Even if Tesla gave them the technology, they wouldn't have the capital to use it as it was meant to be used.
3. We'll have to look for startups, likely from China and India. North America is mostly a lost cause for new startups due to politics and the entrenched fossil fuel lobbyists.

Of the non-startups, I think the one to watch will be Geely. They own Polestar and Volvo, too. Geely is making huge strides with production quality, safety, and value for money VS other ICE.
They essentially offer a luxury Volvo compact SUV (the CoolRay Sport) with a ton of tech and Volvo mechanicals/design for USD 25K in the Philippines and elsewhere.

 

[Hock1]

1. No. Others will have to help.
2. No. Legacy companies have too much debt, too much internal resistance, and the need to maintain dividends to keep investors invested. Even if Tesla gave them the technology, they wouldn't have the capital to use it as it was meant to be used.
3. We'll have to look for startups, likely from China and India. North America is mostly a lost cause for new startups due to politics and the entrenched fossil fuel lobbyists.

Those are all reasoned points, but we were talking about Toyota (either 1st or 2nd in the world for auto sales), a non-american company, making the statement that they plan to have 25 BEV models for sale by 2026. Maybe they are "overly optimistic" like GM and VW. We'll see soon, IMO.

 

[SN_8]

A stock split announcement would be a great way to say

We're "# 1"?

I don't know. According to my wife, they had the Tesla crash on the Today Show this morning, talking about how it took 4 hours to put out the fire (which we have known since yesterday is NOT true). I'm sick of it.

I've found the NBC channels to be considerably more dishonest than other networks on this issue (not that the others have handled this well).

It was a top story on NBC nightly news yesterday, ironically immediately followed by a story on the growing climate crisis. Well how about you stop trying to ruin the only major corporation actually doing something to combat the climate crisis you dumb étron.