Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Lessmog]

I know the subject of advertising has been over-covered but I just wanted to add a final summary of my thoughts:

Advertising for traditional cars adds around $2000 to the cost of each car. That's money the consumer pays.

Tesla's strategy is to make a better product for less. Adding the $2000 savings from not advertising will make it a lot less. That gives them more pricing power. When offering a better product for considerably less money only dumb people, people biased against Tesla or people with special needs that Tesla cannot fill will choose the poorer value.

That leaves Tesla with the more discriminating, more informed customers. This is good from a PR perspective - smart financially savvy people who are good with their money drive a Tesla. It's also good from an insurance perspective - rational, even-keeled people are less likely to be in an auto accident. It probably has a small positive impact on warranty costs too. I also think people will appreciate they are not having to fund a propaganda (advertising) campaign. That's more goodwill. The message it sends is Tesla is the real deal.

It's hard to put a price on some of these intangibles but the big one is the larger potential margin/lower selling price. The only way I can see it making sense for Tesla to advertise is in the unlikely event that the competition can match the value Tesla offers. Currently, cars like the Mach-e are not as good of a value and are almost certainly being sold at a loss, even counting the value of the emission credits they earn. So I don't see this changing anytime soon. The longer Tesla can postpone the need to advertise, hopefully indefinitely, the better. Elon believes, and I agree, the product should be such a good value it sells itself. I think Tesla will be able to achieve this while maintaining industry-leading margins without any advertising campaigns. Once you start to advertise, I'm not sure it's very easy to go back - the damage to your brand has already been done.

But, as Elon has quoted, you **** one horse ...

 

[Cobos]

Norway gets a much larger % of their road money from tolls.... which don't even exist in a LOT of US states, and even in the ones that do are usually pretty narrow in location/scope.

Further- they not just a ton less miles of road- but a ton less cars using them.

The US has 0.86 cars per 1 person living here. Norway has 0.44 cars per 1 person- less than half (and better public transit).

Not that they don't get ANY road funding from gas taxes- they do- just not nearly as much as US states tend to.

You are correct that we do have a lot of tolls, though they generally pay for specific road project and are removed when it's paid down.

But I think this is a major cultural difference between the US and Europe/Norway. The US are hyper focused on taxes, while Europeans are not. I say that based on the fact that shops and restaurants lists items without taxes in the US and are not allowed to do that in Europe. That makes US citizens a lot more aware of the amount the pay in taxes, while us Europeans knows it's there but it is not so much in our face.
While Norway is slightly different on taxes. We love Pigouvian taxes. We disincentivize buying gas guzzlers with our total taxes and fees on gasoline around $1.5/L, so if you use a lot of gas you pay more into the system. On the flip side we remove the disincentives from EVs, that make them approach price parity with gas cars. At the same time there is no link between gasoline taxes and road maintenance. There's just a total budget.
We pay quite a lot of money on from taxes, fees, tolls etc. and the goverment uses quite a lot of money on roads, military, healthcare etc. It's basically all general funds. That does not imply we in Norway politcally agrees on how the different taxes or spenditures should be, and hence certain trepidation around elections.

How is this relevant for Tesla, well Norway hasn't technically been friendly to Tesla, they have been friendly to EVs. At some point in time the combination of a fairly wealthy population and Tesla being the only one to supply quality family sized EVs in abundance meant we bought a lot of Model S. But the recent sales spikes of Audi e-tron and Model 3 shows it's about a model that hits what Norwegians wants that matter. And our incentive package is brand and model indiffferent.

 

[Artful Dodger]

View attachment 656691

The Red line is 150 MA.

No, the Red Line on your chart is the MA(200). The current value for MA(150) is 623.61

 

[Tslynk67]

Elon hosting SNL with Miley Cyrus as musician.

I totally forgot Musk was roped into taunting MontanaSkeptic by one twitter troll, then responded to another twitter troll making fun of both MontanaSkeptic and Cyrus.

Oh wait, those twitter trolls were me, and @Lycanthrope

Spoiler

Elon Musk deletes twerking Miley Cyrus tweet after backlash

What a twerk.

www.foxnews.com

We even made Fox News...

Elon Musk deletes twerking Miley Cyrus tweet after backlash

What a twerk.

www.foxnews.com

 

[lascavarian]

Tesla already stated on a recent Earnings Call that european Models 3 already have all the hardware necessary to do V2H and it would just take a software change to enable the feature?

Have you noticed how Telsa is becoming a licenced grid provider in several european countries? VPPs will include cars: (its the bty chem changes we've been waiting for)

Tesla may become power provider in Germany – pv magazine ... https://www.pv-magazine.com › 2020/08/06 › tesla-ma...

Tesla Puts New Emphasis On Becoming An Electricity ... https://cleantechnica.com › 2020/09/09 › tesla-puts-new...

Agreed. I think there is a plug/receptacle construct that plays well for the EU models.

I believe EM is developing complete model communities on some level in the UK. I say this because I toy with the idea of what will be the voltages used in Martian communities. Will it be AC or DC? What will be the voltage? Can North America build new housing that establishes these new high efficiency standards now.

Its infrastructure baby!

 

[winfield100]

But here there's no special "electricity tax" that goes to "grid maintenance"
But since electricity is charged per kwh delivered generally I'm unsure how it'd be "more than your share" anyway- it should be exactly your share.
(on top of that- in my case anyway, by owning an EV I get access to special ToU billing... so I actually spend less on electricity than I did before I got an EV)

this will be rambling, however, I make about 17,400 kwh/year (17.4 megawatt hours) and have made from free fuel, around 45 megawatt hours.

this is about 1.6x my exorbitant needs (pool heater , all LED’s lighting, A/C) so i daily send an excess to the grid

I pay a minimum of $260.28/year as my occupancy permit requires grid connection.

shared resources and the common good

when i rarely need electricity i buy retail price (8.3 cents/kwh) but sell at wholesale cost (2.3 cents per kwh) (rough numbers)

however the grid needs maintenance during this probably 25 year transition so the money comes from somewhere (there were virtually no PV arrays in the neighborhood 7 years ago, now popping up weekly and same or larger whole roof probably 12 - 15kw or larger, all that’s needed is some software and probably could have megawatt VPP in the neighborhood

Everyone of these PV arrays is changing the revenue stream from (mine was around $110/month, others higher) to $21.69/month, a massive drop and accelerating

download the BP statistical review of energy and look at the PV growth curve and the LLNL Sankey graphs of energy flow from 10-12 years ago and recently and look at the growth of Solar (and wind)

massive, inexorable, changes in revenue streams and accelerating as costs of use drop (PV, $1,600/watt 1956, $101/watt 1974, now maybe 50cents)

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

You mean the NASA "meatball" logo on the Driver's (left-side) door? It's still there. Here are 2 images taken of Model SpaceX during the Crew Demo-2 launch in May 2020: (astronauts Bob & Doug)

Left side of Model SpaceX, May 2020 w/o "meatball": (Dragon on Pad 39A in the backgrnd)

View attachment 656757

Right side, May 2020: (on the ride out to Pad 39A) w. NASA "meatball"

View attachment 656758

Not to worry; all is well...

Cheers!

The screenshot below is from Crew-1. The logo is no longer there for Crew-2....

 

[Artful Dodger]

The screenshot below is from Crew-1. The logo is no longer there for Crew-2....View attachment 656782

Yeah, probably a different Model X. SpaceX owns several of them. Still, it looks good on that pearl white paint. I wonder how long before these are available to the public from EVannex?

Cheers!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Oh, my...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1386158212970340354

 

[Prunesquallor]

The screenshot below is from Crew-1. The logo is no longer there for Crew-2....View attachment 656782

SpaceX has a privately funded flight coming up. Can't use the meatball on those MXs. Maybe they just figured they should make it generic.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I don't think they have to add any shares to stay balanced.

However, IIUC, once the upward trajectory reaches a point of discomfort the shorts will eventually have to cover by buying, and this ought to accelerate the eventual breakout rise in SP.

In the mean time, the shorts are making it easy for those backing up the truck to load up on chairs while the getting is good.

Some might go so far as to say, ...

Shorting TSLA is like tossing gasoline on a fire. ​

My understanding was that NET investment in S&P500 funds increase. Also, that index funds are a huge part of investments.

I just mean that on average, aren't the public adding (net) S&P Index funds in retirement, pension, investing accounts? Part of that index buying leads to Apple, Tesla, Google, Ford etc being bought most days. Therefore, isn't there a gentle push on share price due to demand (relevant to all S&P 500 shares.

Or is this tiny push irrelevant compared to the volumes MM / algos trade? I'm just thinking that when MM1 sells a bazillion shares on the market, even though most might go to a related entity, Vanguard & other index trackers will pick up a few because the funds have had inflows (or if ETFs, a similar effect is achieved through the process Cathie Wood describes when saying redemptions made no difference to Ark).

So MMS/shorts have a slight upward battle while S&P 500 tracker inflows > redemptions

 

[Unpilot]

this will be rambling, however, I make about 17,400 kwh/year (17.4 megawatt hours) and have made from free fuel, around 45 megawatt hours.

this is about 1.6x my exorbitant needs (pool heater , all LED’s lighting, A/C) so i daily send an excess to the grid

I pay a minimum of $260.28/year as my occupancy permit requires grid connection.

shared resources and the common good

when i rarely need electricity i buy retail price (8.3 cents/kwh) but sell at wholesale cost (2.3 cents per kwh) (rough numbers)

however the grid needs maintenance during this probably 25 year transition so the money comes from somewhere (there were virtually no PV arrays in the neighborhood 7 years ago, now popping up weekly and same or larger whole roof probably 12 - 15kw or larger, all that’s needed is some software and probably could have megawatt VPP in the neighborhood

Everyone of these PV arrays is changing the revenue stream from (mine was around $110/month, others higher) to $21.69/month, a massive drop and accelerating

download the BP statistical review of energy and look at the PV growth curve and the LLNL Sankey graphs of energy flow from 10-12 years ago and recently and look at the growth of Solar (and wind)

massive, inexorable, changes in revenue streams and accelerating as costs of use drop (PV, $1,600/watt 1956, $101/watt 1974, now maybe 50cents)

Yep change is coming.

‘Insanely cheap energy’: how solar power continues to shock the world

Australian smarts and Chinese industrial might made solar power the cheapest power humanity has seen – and no one saw it coming

www.theguardian.com

 

[elasalle]

EM please wear “not a CEO” t-shirt for SNL
Else MSM might go crazy with your antics

 

[bpjod]

How many more sleeps until Earnings Report Day? This weekend is interminable.

 

[2daMoon]

I like to think of what the folks riding horses thought, who paid taxes on horse feed ,when cars started driving on their roads.

We need to incentivize less pollution. EV's accomplish this, and more so when powered by sustainable energy. So let's incentivize cleaner energy generation. I'd imagine everyone that likes to breathe clean air can agree that clean air is nice to breathe. Making a plan to get their is the next step. A staged plan is a pragmatic solution and usually agreeable in some form or fashion. I'd like to see it happen sooner rather than later.

This is spot on.

I don't think most folks understand how drastically the transition to sustainable energy will affect everything, including taxation. Once energy is essentially free the tax burden to support existing systems will be reduced by the amount that accounts for the change in energy costs. This amount is significant as energy is the foundation of nearly every aspect of our world. Reduce that cost and the cost of living nosedives.

Plus, clean air.

 

[2daMoon]

My understanding was that NET investment in S&P500 funds increase. Also, that index funds are a huge part of investments.

I just mean that on average, aren't the public adding (net) S&P Index funds in retirement, pension, investing accounts? Part of that index buying leads to Apple, Tesla, Google, Ford etc being bought most days. Therefore, isn't there a gentle push on share price due to demand (relevant to all S&P 500 shares.

Or is this tiny push irrelevant compared to the volumes MM / algos trade? I'm just thinking that when MM1 sells a bazillion shares on the market, even though most might go to a related entity, Vanguard & other index trackers will pick up a few because the funds have had inflows (or if ETFs, a similar effect is achieved through the process Cathie Wood describes when saying redemptions made no difference to Ark).

So MMS/shorts have a slight upward battle while S&P 500 tracker inflows > redemptions

I see what you mean. If the size of any individual tracking fund is growing they will be buying more of each of the S&P member's stocks in order to stay balanced. Thanks for the clarification.

 

[2daMoon]

Lars is out with a new episode of Best in Tesla, hitting all the high points.

 

[The Accountant]

My understanding was that NET investment in S&P500 funds increase. Also, that index funds are a huge part of investments.

I just mean that on average, aren't the public adding (net) S&P Index funds in retirement, pension, investing accounts? Part of that index buying leads to Apple, Tesla, Google, Ford etc being bought most days. Therefore, isn't there a gentle push on share price due to demand (relevant to all S&P 500 shares.

Or is this tiny push irrelevant compared to the volumes MM / algos trade? I'm just thinking that when MM1 sells a bazillion shares on the market, even though most might go to a related entity, Vanguard & other index trackers will pick up a few because the funds have had inflows (or if ETFs, a similar effect is achieved through the process Cathie Wood describes when saying redemptions made no difference to Ark).

So MMS/shorts have a slight upward battle while S&P 500 tracker inflows > redemptions

Supporting your observation:
In the US, there are 80 million active participants in 401k retirment plans. These plans have annual inflows of $500 Billion.
Many participants select the S&P500 fund as one of their investment funds. At this point in time, there are more inflows than outflows into S&P500 Index funds.
I would think that the S&P500 Index funds are net buyers of Tesla stock every month.

 

[The Accountant]

EM please wear “not a CEO” t-shirt for SNL
Else MSM might go crazy with your antics

and for TSLAQ - maybe a "not an engineer" t-shirt.

 

[SunCatcher]

Oh, my...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1386158212970340354

Oh dear. What could possibly go wrong?