Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

no, you broke it for me. you're a fool if you think Elon's going to go off-script, make some impassioned plea for climate change, or ad lib a single thing. have you people literally ever seen an episode of SNL?

{ignoring insult}

I've only seen just about every episode from the last 45 years.

Have you literally ever seen Elon speak? Off script is a bit of his thing.

See also: his tweet about testing how "live" SNL really is.

they read goofy jokes off cue cards. once every couple of decades, a musical guest does something controversial for attention.

Of, so people occasionally do go off script? Huh.... how foolish of me to assert that the show is supposed to be scripted then...

 

[canoemore]

Even the Saturn V had launch clamps that held it down before it went to the moon. $TSLA's just waiting to confirm that thrust is nominal.

 

[Discoducky]

I have a good feeling about today... mainly from my visit to the factory yesterday... check it out ...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1386449121507086337

Awesome! I'm now following you. I'm @TeslaTrip

 

[2daMoon]

{ignoring insult}

I've only seen just about every episode from the last 45 years.

Have you literally ever seen Elon speak? Off script is a bit of his thing.

See also: his tweet about testing how "live" SNL really is.



Of, so people do go off script? Huh.... how foolish of me to assert that the show is supposed to be scripted then...

That's just crazy talk. If that were true wouldn't they just put the word "Live" in the name?

 

[Prunesquallor]

No one believed that timeline when it was published on April 30, 2000.

This story is the result of more media FUD, in this case probably instigated by billionaire interests who had reduced their exposure to the market in March near the bottom due to COVID concerns and had not yet re-invested back into stocks. They were hoping to help create a double-dip so they could get back in.

....,

Gives a new potential motivation for “market rotation” and “inflation fear”.

 

[StealthP3D]

Your perspective is interesting, but...
The Holy Grail of marketing is Word-of-mouth, phraseology that predates cellular phones, not to mention the internet and social media. The most successful brands have almost always had quite small advertising budgets (FWIW 'advertising' is paid promotion. If it is not paid it isn't advertising. Those highly successful brands achieve the most important promotion by their own customers (examples: Airstream, Tesla, Porsche). Then there are those we do not even consider as possibilities that also have that same character (examples: Boeing, SpaceX, Magna (including Magna-Steyr).

Every highly successful brand, repeat EVERY, has a loyal and enthusiastic customer base that promotes the brand, usually without direct compensation, and excuses faults while promoting virtue. In short, they are enthusiasts. Even plumbing fixtures, tools and electrical supplies have that character. Think Snap-On, Moen, even Madison Electric [until they were acquired, perhaps].

I keep posting these things because it is crucial to the prosperity of Tesla that we retail investors understand just how different Tesla is. Tesla DOES NOT follow conventional wisdom. Tesla does not even have dealers, imagine that! Tesla has since inception used very precise and very disciplined cultivation of influencers (early adopters in Marketing context) specifically they have cultivated emerging buyers in a very disciplined way. Young children and young adults all over the world know and admire Tesla. That is where long term loyalty and growth are already being discovered.

Without a doubt I'm influenced by both academic study (My PhD was in Marketing, specifically oriented to women's Islamic banking). That taught me about the role of non-traditional marketing. Please think about how far Tesla has come and is continuing to come just from understanding the modern world.

Frankly there is minimal need to convince the unconvincable. Those people are older and not too likely to buy anyway. The people being convinced are all over the world, including in places Tesla has never been. There is active social media support for Tesla in Brazil, for example, where Tesla is not and probably will not be for some time. less than two years ago I was in Botswana wearing a Tesla T-shirt and was approached by several enthusiastic young people asking me if I had a Tesla. Those stories abound and most of us have them.

Please, please just think about hard core reality. Tesla saves roughly 15% of gross revenues by NOT having dealers and NOT having old-fashioned advertising and promotion. Tesla does NOT pay for product placement, nor even provide test products to press for either TE nor automotive. Tesla does not even have glitzy parties to launch new products. Their releases are, in comparison, boring with not much careful preparation. Geeks loved Battery Day but nobody else understood or cared. Please just think about that. People who mattered, who influence buyers, devoted lots of time and effort to understanding. Everyone else ignored the news or dismissed it as 'vaporware'.

Tesla has such precise and well directed efforts that everyone who does not understand "Word-of-mouth" thinks Tesla is losing sales. That is not true. Tesla is just very, very efficient and rapidly becoming more so.

Even FUD ends out to be not entirely negative since Tesla consistently proves their abilities.

If I seem to be belaboring these points just think of that 15% of Gross sales that Tesla does not spend!

^^^^^ Mod Alert: Post of Special Merit! ^^^^^

I really like the way you laid this out for people who STILL are not seeing the bigger picture! Bravo!

Looking at it from a different angle:

Elon knew the auto competition was easy pickings if he could simply survive long enough to reach critical mass/volume. They were massively inefficient behemoths that had no ability to change course in any reasonable amount of time. They were offering increasingly worse value every year while simultaneously struggling with margins in a world where their highest margin products were being phased out. They would be easy pickings if he could just survive long enough to get his foot in the door.

He knew once Tesla had achieved proper scale he could achieve unbelievable margins and the inefficient competition couldn't do anything about it. He could either use the margins to make absolutely insane profits (traditional business theory says this is the proper course) but that would involve selling fewer cars at higher margins and would not speed adoption of sustainable energy. In this model he would advertise enough to assure the highest margins.

The other option was to sell the cars as inexpensively as possible while still generating enough profit to grow as quickly as possible. This model does not contain the inefficiencies of advertising (forcing the customer to pay for advertising in an attempt to maximize profits for the corporation).

I believe Elon recognized that the legacy dinosaurs were so fat and so inefficient that following the traditional model of maximizing profits would lead to such obscene profits in the short-term that the biggest risk would be hate and backlash. And there is no telling what kind of legal and regulatory changes that might lead to in an attempt to stamp out such a pest. He knew the safest path to success was the one that put the proper principles on the pedestal, namely, accelerating sustainability. Do this and success would follow. Risk would be reduced. The company would grow and build true value at maximum speed (not value based on obscene profits that were unsustainable in the long-run). This is the model that offers the most value to consumers and society and ironically, long-term shareholders too. And this is the model that would not advertise at the direct expense of your customers simply to increase short-term margins.

I won't go into detail why I think advertising is only good for a short-term boost and that it's is actually addictive, like a narcotic, the company quickly becomes dependent upon it. It's used as a short-term crutch to the detriment of society as a whole and, ironically, even the corporation that uses it. But telling this to an adman (advertising executive) is like telling a 1960's tobacco executive that smoking is harmful and addictive. Advertising, when your product offers superior value to the consumer, is counter-productive, both to the consumer and, by extension, to the corporation. Publicity is different.

Sex does not equal prostitution and, similarly, publicity does not equal advertising.

 

[viridi]

"They" are now fighting $740. Pretty obvious that they do not want TSLA to cross this psychologically important level. Capping occurring right now at $740 (order to sell 10,100 shares was just put in and pulled as it achieved the desired impact).

 

[TheTalkingMule]

A stock split doesn't change valuation though. I mean sure it will raise the share value somewhat due to people buying at the lower SP but not by much overall.

The only drivers I could see which would catapult TSLA over Apple in the short term are things like Level 5 FSD or a huge government contract or something.

A stock split seems to "require" the covering of synthetic shares by MM's, and likely creates at least some impetus for covering traditionally shorted shares.

We have 46M normal shares short as of last month, and since March 1 it's my estimation(guess) we have a far larger synthetic short positions than we've ever seen in the past.

With all the institutional holding that's going nowhere, plus all the insider shares and diamond handed retail investors....I think there's a half decent chance of a squeeze if a stock split is mentioned on today's call. Maybe a controlled snap to $1200 over a couple weeks.

That's if a split is planned tho, and I give that about a 5% chance of happening now. More likely in the late fall or winter if we spend all summer >$800.

Long story short.....the float feels veeeeeeery tight to me, but only if you rice all the synthetic shares.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

A stock split seems to "require" the covering of synthetic shares by MM's, and likely creates at least some impetus for covering traditionally shorted shares.

We have 46M normal shares short as of last month, and since March 1 it's my estimation(guess) we have a far larger synthetic short positions than we've ever seen in the past.

With all the institutional holding that's going nowhere, plus all the insider shares and diamond handed retail investors....I think there's a half decent chance of a squeeze if a stock split is mentioned on today's call. Maybe a controlled snap to $1200 over a couple weeks.

That's if a split is planned tho, and I give that about a 5% chance of happening now. More likely in the late fall or winter if we spend all summer >$800.

Long story short.....the float feels veeeeeeery tight to me, but only if you rice all the synthetic shares.

According to some 'experts'...a stock split does nothing for the stock...it's like taking 8 slices of pizza and splitting it into 16...you still have the same amount of pizza....Remember Tulips back in the 1600's?

 

[jbcarioca]

what will be funny is when Tesla does eventually start doing some form of conventional advertising and everyone here instantly does a hypocritical 180 and falls over themselves to praise the ad and the strategy, whatever it turns out to be.

It would be funny were it to happen. It won't precisely because they have all the awareness they can use and more plus all the demand they can use and more. The only remotely conventional techniques they use are end-of-quarter promotions and periodic incentives. Even those are communicated solely with now-traditional Tesla techniques. never have they reported to industry traditional broad-spectrum promotions.

Those are simply too inefficient for use today. Sadly, much fo the industry hasn't clue so they continue with purely traditional techniques. Even traditional giants such as Procter and Gamble now spent more on targeted techniques than they do on broad-spectrum advertising. Clearly you don't believe these things.
Do a little research on advertising expenditures by channel and expenditures for internet targeted promotion and purchase-location promotion. When/if you do that you'll understand a bit more about this.

Finally, Super Bowl ads and similar splashes are almost always done to satisfy senior executives whims. Those obsolescent men (nearly all those dinosaurs are men) continue to see value because they can see/observe their Super Bowl and other pitches and brag to their friends. Never underestimate how important it is to make your pitch to the Board of Directors and the old Senior Execs. That aspect is so important that a good many knowledgable people make those pitches to help sell corporate decisions that they otherwise might oppose. Here is a prototypical such pitch:
PreviewPreview0:31GMC HUMMER EV Super Bowl LIV Ad With LeBron JamesYouTube · CarscoopsFeb 2, 2020
That one is quite certain to have been worthwhile to help Mary Barra sell an EV approach that is opposed by a number of senior executives and board members. Maybe it generated a few sales to prior Hummer buyers, but they'd have been convinced later on anyway using modern techniques. It is definitely value delivered when such activity converts living dinosaurs.

I have participated in a handful of settings where such decisions were made explicitly for that reason.
One of the most blatantly obvious ones was this:

Northrop Grumman TV Spot, 'Stealth Fighters'

Northrop Grumman has always been at the forefront of technology with speed, stealth, and intelligence.

www.ispot.tv

Tesla and SpaceX are not weak enough to need such antics, nor do either have cost-plus contracts to help them to bilk the taxpayers for them:

 

[Mengy]

With all the institutional holding that's going nowhere, plus all the insider shares and diamond handed retail investors....I think there's a half decent chance of a squeeze if a stock split is mentioned on today's call. Maybe a controlled snap to $1200 over a couple weeks.

I'd be more than okay with that!

 

[jbcarioca]

To me, some seem to have a different meaning of what constitutes "word of mouth" dissemination of a brand.

The way I see it, word of mouth happens when others seeing what you have ask about it... the topic comes up in normal conversation, rather than consciously going out of one's way campaigning for a brand. I think of the process more as people doing very little out of the ordinary.

These days, the same people who take pictures of their food and post it to social media are also doing this with their other purchases (unboxing and the like) and this sort of falls into the category as well. ..

The basic premise of "word of mouth" is more natural than it is contrived, and happens organically whenever there is something notable to talk about.

Yes, and that is exactly why doing it well is so very hard. The two prototypical examples that are stable and enduring are Airstream and Tesla. Both start from clear and obvious advantages that are difficult to justify without enthusiasm. There are some odd examples that the manufacturer barely understands. Both Boeing and Airbus are good examples because their pilots often do the promotion within their own operators. As with almost all word-of-mouth the subject of adulation must deliver on the positive public.

Tesla must every careful to deliver, especially as adoption is becoming more mainstream.

 

[CLK350]

so let me get this right...
People that buy teslas are one of two types..either they understand it or they don't? Great Observation.. Oh wait there is another perspective...either they got it as a status symbol (I'm Rich or a techie, or a tree hugger)...or they did.
No one got the car because of its worth.

My point is that the best target audience for Tesla soft ads is people who can afford expensive cars, more as a status symbol than for any other reason, since these are the ones who seem to be the majority, from my experience, who *have* bought Teslas (usually MX) and didn't understand or care much for tech or eco aspects.
Others who bought a Tesla and do not fall in the above category are those who were personally introduced to a Tesla - neighbors, friends, family.

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - premarket:

 

[henchman24]

I don't think Tesla won't get into ads until there is actually a demand problem. Right now, they are selling every car they can make and doing it pretty quickly. There are times where they might have some slight incentives like free Supercharging, FSD trial, etc... but right now they simply have no issues selling cars. If there is a point where they have to throttle plants due to lack of demand or cars suddenly are piling up at the stores, then I'm sure we will see some advertising. I don't see that happening anytime soon personally as I think even with Berlin and Austin, Tesla still won't be able to saturate the market.

 

[jerry33]

According to some 'experts'...a stock split does nothing for the stock...it's like taking 8 slices of pizza and splitting it into 16...you still have the same amount of pizza....Remember Tulips back in the 1600's?

Theoretically true. In practice, not so much.

 

[Todd Burch]

An analyst is going to bring up the "Autopilot safety issue" at the call today.

And Elon will rip into the media.

And it will be a beautiful thing.

 

[Pezpunk]

{ignoring insult}

I've only seen just about every episode from the last 45 years.

Have you literally ever seen Elon speak? Off script is a bit of his thing.

See also: his tweet about testing how "live" SNL really is.



Of, so people occasionally do go off script? Huh.... how foolish of me to assert that the show is supposed to be scripted then...

musical guests don't have a script. you're trying way too hard. it's a show where the hosts read jokes off cue cards, not an improv session. at no point will Elon be speaking off the cuff. for someone who claims to watch it all the time, it's disturbing that this is news to you.

 

[dl003]

I only need to sell 10 shares to pay the rest of my 2020 taxes but can't bring myself to. I think I need help.

 

[ZachF]

Today is TSLA HODL Christmas!

Happy HODLdays!