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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
I've long thought we need a practical FUD_fighting thread here. Posts would be nothing more than links to easily upvoted/commented articles / tweets that the folks here can add their virtual weight to. Posts where people are asking honest opinions on issues surrounding EVs, or where people are being attacked by FUDsters on twitter/facebook/reddit wherever.
Most of us have actual day jobs, and not enough time to go searching for these battles, but up/downvoting appropriate posts and comments is trivial for me if people link to them from an uncluttered, easily viewed thread of such content.
TMC has a lot of members, we should focus our efforts. tweets and retweets are free
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
.
<citation needed>
Because no, I don't think it has.
A well optioned Camry (or Accord, or comparable Hyundai) costs a similar price to an SR+ 3, that's not a "stretch" anyway.
The discussion specifically, in case you didn't read it all- was versus cars like the Corolla that can be had for about 20k. I've seen no evidence, let alone 'repeated debunking' that folks are commonly cross shopping those with a new Tesla.
That's why Elon keeps repeatedly telling us the cars are still too expensive and lots of people still can't buy them as a result.
<citation needed>
Because no, I don't think it has.
A well optioned Camry (or Accord, or comparable Hyundai) costs a similar price to an SR+ 3, that's not a "stretch" anyway.
The discussion specifically, in case you didn't read it all- was versus cars like the Corolla that can be had for about 20k. I've seen no evidence, let alone 'repeated debunking' that folks are commonly cross shopping those with a new Tesla.
That's why Elon keeps repeatedly telling us the cars are still too expensive and lots of people still can't buy them as a result.
On pricing models:
As a company, Tesla has many product lines. In coming up with future pricing and/or market caps, each line contributes. Each business line likely has different probabilities of coming true. For instance, in seems like their can be high confidence or high probability of Tesla selling 1M cars this year and 2M cars some near term year. I would assign a lower probability to robotaxi network contributing.
The thing to me is to assign probabilities for different things to happen, then come up with a future price to justify holding now. There are many ways to value the total probability of events.
Which model should be used? Why?
I've only used the Specific Multiplication Rule of Independent Events
As a company, Tesla has many product lines. In coming up with future pricing and/or market caps, each line contributes. Each business line likely has different probabilities of coming true. For instance, in seems like their can be high confidence or high probability of Tesla selling 1M cars this year and 2M cars some near term year. I would assign a lower probability to robotaxi network contributing.
The thing to me is to assign probabilities for different things to happen, then come up with a future price to justify holding now. There are many ways to value the total probability of events.
Which model should be used? Why?
I've only used the Specific Multiplication Rule of Independent Events
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Something that currently is not actually there doesn't prove anything.
When it's actually deployed to consumers and working as advertised THEN it proves something.
(If it misses the date-or does not work as well as advertised- that proves something else
)This is called assuming facts not in evidence.
So far neither has deployed a consumer L4/L5 system.
Both have claimed they're really close to doing so, and both have shown impressive demo videos.
Lots of OTHER companies have also claimed to be "close" over the years and shown impressive demo videos- and still don't have a consumer product on the market.
It's totally understandable if someone is no longer willing to give Elon the benefit of the doubt given the frequency of missed dates.
It's totally irrational to simply take another companies word that they "secretly" solved the problem dozens of other companies- including those backed by Apple, Google, and others have been working on for over a decade, especially without any public-facing fleet or data collection to work the problem- and that it'll be out shortly.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
The war is already over, these last few "battles" are just generals going thru the motions hoping for small personal victories. We need to focus on cell production.
This statement is in present tense:
This statement references future events that have not yet happened to "prove" your point:
See the problem?
Bladerskb said:
This statement references future events that have not yet happened to "prove" your point:
See the problem?
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
@Krugerrand is that you looking for investment funds?
Steering wheel is the smoking gun. I wish people would just use Occam's razor here. Person without seatbelt was thrown around vs coming up with Rube Goldbergian scenarios.
I don't think when Elon said the sale was to "prove the liquidity" of BTC, it meant the same thing some of us are thinking. Call me a fanboi, hell I call myself a fanboi, but the man thinks on another plane of existence. He probably was just trying to dumb it down for us. "Think of an easy word that is close enough to describe it. Liquidity it is."
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Are we really sitting around arguing the merits of a +93% investment? Some like it, some don't. I'm not seeing many new data points or insights here.
I would rather spend time planning what I would buy with my ER gain
IF I HAD ANY
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/6MMAJA6UBZP6RPW7LKIURKAXXU.jpg)
Tesla says bitcoin investment worth $2.48 billion
Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) said on Wednesday that the fair market value of bitcoin the electric carmaker held as of March 31 was $2.48 billion, suggesting it could stand to make around $1 billion dollars out of the investment were it to cash in the digital currency.www.reuters.com
Note 3 – Digital Assets, Net
During the three months ended March 31, 2021, we purchased and received $1.50 billion of bitcoin. During the three months ended March 31, 2021, we recorded $27 million of impairment losses on bitcoin. We also realized gains of $128 million through sales during the three months ended March 31, 2021. Such gains are presented net of impairment losses in Restructuring and other in the consolidated statement of operations. As of March 31, 2021, the carrying value of our bitcoin held was $1.33 billion, which reflects cumulative impairments of $27 million. The fair market value of bitcoin held as of March 31, 2021 was $2.48 billion.
From Tesla's 2021 Q1 10-Q: (pg. 22)
2018 CEO Performance Award
The achievement status of the operational milestones as of March 31, 2021 is provided below. Although an operational milestone is deemed achieved in the last quarter of the relevant annualized period, it may be certified only after the financial statements supporting its achievement have been filed with our Forms 10-Q and/or 10-K.
(1) Achieved in the first quarter of 2021 and expected to be certified following the filing of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.
Attn: @The Accountant
My wife fits this. Even though we have a net worth of 7-8 digits for 15 years spending money on high end brands has been like pulling teeth. She loved her Camry and no car could compare to her until we started buying Tesla's. She was never really happy with our Lexus, BMW or Mercedes purchases.
"They" are going to fight $700 hard today, especially if volume remains relatively low. Doing it already with large sell orders at $700 just now. Drove the price down over $6 in seconds with the bounce off of $700. But, hey, this stock is not manipulated! (-;
Hey, got a light? I read earlier that gasoline burns.
"Kloza thinks the national average will flirt with $3 a gallon this summer, and could top that level if any hurricanes hit the Gulf Coast or there are any other disruptions to supply, such as a refinery fire."
NOT ADVICE!
Do you say that there is no match for big oil?
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