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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Might be stating the obvious, but the market makers are expert at taking advantage of downturns in the markets to rapidly bring TSLA down, and then they are even better at capping through spoofing and other methods any rise in TSLA even as the markets recover. We are in a vicious cycle where they are clearly in control. However, the game they are playing is quite dangerous - good news from TSLA will end their game, and end it quickly (as it has done when they have done this in the past). And, there will be lots of good news this year. Looking forward to them hopefully getting crushed in the not so distant future.
 
Well one went bankrupt in 08 and one saw it coming and did what had to be done to keep from going bankrupt. The US govt bailed out GM which is allowed that investment in the Volt/Bolt to keep going but instead of treating it as the gift that it was GM spent all the EV credits capability on cars that did not develop any capability on the EV powertrain, it all went to LG chem. Shame on GM, why bother. Really...why? Burning through the tax credits with literally nothing to show for it is something I'd call idiotic.

Ford spent nothing on EVs for 12 years but then again both generated the same amount of profit from EVs. NONE. Only Ford did not wasted investments.

For a first EV the Mach e was a better product than the volt and reflects a serious commitment by leveraging the only car brand they have to the EV effort. It would be as if GM only made an electric Corvette or Cadillac.

Ford committed to owning the truck world and as someone that uses trucks there is no comparison. Dodge has a second place effort and GM is..just useless as a work truck. A ford diesel work truck is a serious piece of equipment and they literally can't make enough, forget the chip issues. Even before that they could not keep up with demand. So, yes. Not run by idiots. They saw the shift away from cars and shifted. They saw the move to efficiency in trucks and moved. They created an aluminum truck! I mean that took some huge gonads in Detroit.

GM is floundering around with no serious truck offering and partnered with a fraudster on trucks (they have to pray the whole hummer thing works out) and Ford placed bets on best in class diesel tech, lightweight truck body/frames, and superior transmissions for towing. In fact the ford diesel engines are better than competitors such as Cummins. It is simply a world class engine and it took a lot of pain to get there. Think growing efforts that dwarfed the model 3. I see no comparison, one company has a shot of still being alive in 2026. The ford pickup will still do things that GM can't and Tesla wont. They may have to downsize but they have a product that is differentiated. In the mean time they backed Rivian. They did not waste battery efforts when it was a steep curve. Now that the investment curve is flattening it looks like a good time to invest so they are studying. Tesla won the first mover in battery tech. Ford spent that money elsewhere. GM partnered with Milton. I really don't know what else there is to say about that.
You make a strong case. I will point out that the management of all three companies has changed at least once since the financial crisis. If Ford cannot make it through the transition to electrics then Tesla will remain as the only American auto maker who has never gone bankrupt!
 
While I’m expecting TSLA to make a move “any day now”, I can’t ever seem to call the bottom.... I can just accumulate when I’m bored with the movement. I doubt this is it yet, either. Just a little perspective, I picked up more shares at $567 just last month. With these MM + macros, you have to always keep some dry powder....
 
All bets are off with this yield/inflation.

There are trillions and trillions of dollars sitting on the sidelines.
Traditional cyclical fossil fuel "investments" are verging on disappearing.
Renewables contracting has yet to scale and soak up all this cash.

I don't see any way to twist the math into anything other than ultra-low yields for at least a couple more years.
Where can anyone put their money to get more? AAPL? Apparently not!
 
Finally, someone in the financial media who gets it about emissions credits. They state that if Tesla didn't have the credits, their pricing and business practices would adjust accordingly, But as it is now, they are taking advantage of a non-recurring revenue stream and turning it into a recurring revenue stream.


Falling regulatory credits at some undefined point in the future aren't a threat to Tesla's stock.

The article is behind a paywall, but if you look at https://twitter.com/WholeMarsBlog there are some snippets there. Also Gary Black mentions it.

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Yeah, I always felt that the credit crazies were postulating an alternate universe where Tesla didn’t earn any credits, but did everything else the same. My thinking was in that alternate universe we’d have Berlin next year and Austin the year after that, but still remain profitable.
 
50-day Moving Average is 687.65 (that provided support for a few minutes). Do you think their next target will be the Lower-BB? Tomorrow? Catch the falling knife?

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I'll be watching for a close above / below the 50-day MA to determine whether or not to make a short-term trade.
 
we have seen TSLA price being impacted by changes in the 10yr treasury yield. what are we thinking about inflation? I'm seeing iron price increasing, cardboard prices increasing, trans-pacific shipping seems to have a snag because containers are in the wrong location, and price increases in restaurant menus as they're opening up again and are fully booked. All of that stuff has to translate into higher prices eventually, which might trigger the yield to increase

this is really one thing I'm concerned about short-/mid-term wrt $TSLA price. What do you all think?

Higher expected inflation is one of the best reasons to increase allocation of stocks over more cash based assets.

To my way of thinking, it's not the change in interest rates that impacts stocks, it's the change in interest rates relative to expected inflation. But nobody can accurately predict either so it's still just a matter of opinion.
 
Well let's see how Consumer Reports takes this response post on THEIR stream

Feel free to use this original Tweet to share/ repost anywhere you feel appropriate - This smear/ FUD campaign needs to stop - see my previous post on TMC re the Tesla smear campaign


For example, this is the Tweet I reposted on CR's Twitter stream. https://twitter.com/alexisdetoc/status/1387788264518692867

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More on ExxonMobil's stream, the WSJ and others to follow - join the fight and share or repost/ riposte!


TESLA.FUD.Alex.tweet.EXXON.1.jpg
 

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There are trillions and trillions of dollars sitting on the sidelines.
Traditional cyclical fossil fuel "investments" are verging on disappearing.
Renewables contracting has yet to scale and soak up all this cash.

I don't see any way to twist the math into anything other than ultra-low yields for at least a couple more years.
Where can anyone put their money to get more? AAPL? Apparently not!
I asked a silly question yesterday to my banker neighbor (gonna sound real junior here, oh well). I asked him, should I buy bonds? Then I got the lecture on how worthless those are (opposite the yield). He's the one that got me into BTC, Wow, and ARRR recently... diversification? It is for me, I used to only hold TSLA (still 95% of my investment today).

Many friends just sitting on cash while prices of goods rise. They think they're doing well, maybe they don't pay the grocery bills IDK. Everyone waiting, and more stimulus in the pipeline. Isn't inflation supposed to make the stocks rise too? Meanwhile, Bob's calling me the fool to not unload some and here I am buying more today. I just can't believe they're tightening the spring even more.
 
FYI, I know the indexes are treading barely positive but I see a bloodbath across renewables everywhere. This is not just TSLA. This market is trashing almost all stocks outside of a few leaders. If the leaders break down expect even more punishment across the board at that point. Think buyers are having a tantrum. Have been for a while. They want cheap stocks. So they talk about stuff like interest rates, inflation and taxes, but really they want good buys and a LOT of money is just waiting.
 
My read was that Munro was a bit torn about the first batches of the M3. When I saw the M3 tear down on youtube he gave the built quality and gaps a sound trashing - no holding back. But he did praise the electronics and the super bottle.
Don't know the validity re. 6 years... could very well be true, since he used to do consulting for companies solely, before he also built a youtube brand, and expanded that during covid. Tesla could have been on his radar back in '15. Not promoting Tesla, but perhaps using them as a leverage to get his corporate customers to take EVs seriously.
I think he has done a full turnaround: He seems genuinely impressed by the many iterations and the speed of innovation at Tesla since '17. Also, for Elon to take the time to meet and talk shop with Munro was both kind and clever. The visit to SpaceX and design meeting was icing on the cake. Munro has a lot of respect for Elon.


Munro is the type to say 3 statements in quick succession that 2 of the 3 negate each other

* It is, it isn't, it is

or

* It isn't, it is, it isn't

So if you listen to him in short bursts you might hear one part of that and get a false view of his average/long term view on the issue. Or you could listen to all of it and still end up unsure/confused about where he stands.

I'd trust him to say how long he has though he was positive on Tesla, but I wouldn't say our perception matches his internal compass exactly.