Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CyberDutchie]

What a pathetic day/week/month/year this has been for the stock. Sad, where are my tissues.

Without the Florida crash and subsequent media attack, we would be at $800 now, I’m absolutely sure about this. The media was able to take control of the narrative, from the just released safety report which showed a 10x safety improvement with Autopilot, to blaming Autopilot for the death of two people. Basically the media (with the help of Consumer Reports) were able to completely change public opinion about Tesla Autopilot and FSD.

This is what killed the TSLA momentum and it cost us at least $100 in stock price, and a few million net worth for several of us here.

My only hope, once again, is what Cathy Wood predicted before: the longer the base, the bigger the break-out. I still believe TSLA will hit $1000 but no longer think it will be this year.

 

[Big Time]

Selfishly, I agree. Since I hold calls thru June.

But in reality that's what MoC is doing. Guidance is currently set at 750k+, which is absolutely crushable. Elon's ramblings are annoying, but the print presentation was totally on point.

It doesn't help us much today, but when it comes to the Master Plan....today doesn't matter. We're at like $3400 pre-split and moaning about it. TSLA debt will be boosted to investment grade in short order and we have the next 3 ratcheting blowout quarters locked in.

This current short effort will eventually fuel the next leg up. It's sad that some shorts who were completely wrong on 1Q will still get rewarded, buy hey.....that's how it goes in this regulatory environment. Nothing we can do about it in the near term.

If my May and June calls don't pan out, I'm learning how to value these multi-leg LEAPs and will convert even more shares to 2023 leverage. I'm a total psycho who can't just sit on the knowledge we're likely going above $1k this year without putting some bets on it. You people should just relax and enjoy!

Great points. Yes, long term we will be fine.

I do think short term we would be better off with a change. But I agree with your points.

for instance
Elon says “we expect model Y to be the best selling car in any class by 2022 or 2023”
(Can someone clarify when?)

ok......what does that mean to the average brainless automotive analyst. If Jonas heard that 3 years ago, he wouldn’t even look up what that number is let alone try to compare it to Tesla’s current P&D. He would just say “oh your talking about the future? I care about the next 3 months, Sell”

instead investors have to go onto the internet and search for what is the best selling car, than try to figure out what percentage of production will be Model Y....Ya great deep dive(which any investor should do)
Unfortunately the NY Minute dosnt have time for that.
Give an update like the old days
Like when Tesla M3 production hit, was it...2500 cars a week?
The photos of success went such a long ways.

 

[CLK350]

Without the Florida crash and subsequent media attack, we would be at $800 now, I’m absolutely sure about this. The media was able to take control of the narrative, from the just released safety report which showed a 10x safety improvement with Autopilot, to blaming Autopilot for the death of two people. Basically the media (with the help of Consumer Reports) were able to completely change public opinion about Tesla Autopilot and FSD.

This is what killed the TSLA momentum and it cost us at least $100 in stock price, and a few million net worth for several of us here.

My only hope, once again, is what Cathy Wood predicted before: the longer the base, the bigger the break-out. I still believe TSLA will hit $1000 but no longer think it will be this year.

In my opinion, It's NOT the particular Houston or Florida crash that is the problem. The powerful anti Tesla faction (clearly oil & gas, car interests ) would surely have found *another* way to smear Tesla ahead of positive earnings in order to deflate /prevent any positive momentum.
See my previous post there and what we can all do to help combat this FUD.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Without the Florida crash and subsequent media attack, we would be at $800 now, I’m absolutely sure about this. The media was able to take control of the narrative, from the just released safety report which showed a 10x safety improvement with Autopilot, to blaming Autopilot for the death of two people. Basically the media (with the help of Consumer Reports) were able to completely change public opinion about Tesla Autopilot and FSD.

This is what killed the TSLA momentum and it cost us at least $100 in stock price, and a few million net worth for several of us here.

My only hope, once again, is what Cathy Wood predicted before: the longer the base, the bigger the break-out. I still believe TSLA will hit $1000 but no longer think it will be this year.

Couple things I disagreed with here. I don't believe public opinion has changed that much, if at all. They want us to think that, but the selling likely is due to shorting not retail running so fast.

I don't think $800 was quite in the cards post Earnings. It's Q1, they just were having some trouble spinning it until the accident. I think all the media channels were already well greased.

However, I did not sell despite knowing this was a likely outcome because I'm twice as bad buying back at the right price. So I'm saving 2 mistakes by doing nothing. This too shall pass, and why I don't do options.

 

[Rammstein]

<s>Thank God Facebook is up almost 6% today, because they are the way of the future.</s>

Actually their VR Oculus is pretty sweet. First stand alone VR that I know of. Sales are starting to take off too. If they can stay ahead this could be a huge market for them.

 

[Tslynk67]

Well let's see how Consumer Reports takes this response post on THEIR stream

Feel free to use this original Tweet to share/ repost anywhere you feel appropriate - This smear/ FUD campaign needs to stop - see my previous post on TMC re the Tesla smear campaign


For example, this is the Tweet I reposted on CR's Twitter stream. https://twitter.com/alexisdetoc/status/1387788264518692867

View attachment 657998


More on ExxonMobil's stream, the WSJ and others to follow - join the fight and share or repost/ riposte!


View attachment 658006

You know you can post the actual Twitter link? Just saying

 

[jerry33]

But the main point is that it's the methane we extract from the ground, or cause to be released by our actions, that is the issue - not that from livestock

And this must be regulated, controlled, reduced, stopped.

Correct. The beetles in the pudding here in Texas is that the methane could be burned immediately but that looks scary to people so many cities have banned it. Because the oil companies don't want the methane, they just release it into the air--often near schools and residential areas (Texas now makes it illegal for cities to have anti-drilling laws.) Amazing what government you can buy for a few dollars.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm reading the sentiment on this forum, and it's pretty dismal. Various forecasts here suggest Q3/Q4 return to "normal."

This means... I'm calling bottom at $668.5 because, if this crowd is feeling defeated, it's actually a GREAT time to buy. Yields are coming off their highs today. I'm bullish here... but check back tomorrow.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm reading the sentiment on this forum, and it's pretty dismal. Various forecasts here suggest Q3/Q4 return to "normal."

This means... I'm calling bottom at $668.5 because, if this crowd is feeling defeated, it's actually a GREAT time to buy. Yields are coming off their highs today. I'm bullish here... but check back tomorrow.

Don't forget April China numbers will likely be out next week at some point. They'll essentially guarantee Q2 will be a 200k quarter and if they show decent expansion of production of the MIC Y, then 210k P/D becomes very likely if not conservative.

 

[elasalle]

I'm reading the sentiment on this forum, and it's pretty dismal. Various forecasts here suggest Q3/Q4 return to "normal."

This means... I'm calling bottom at $668.5 because, if this crowd is feeling defeated, it's actually a GREAT time to buy. Yields are coming off their highs today. I'm bullish here... but check back tomorrow.

No sweat, all my sold CC's are already 70-80% profits
No $$ to close, and Rolling them not an option right now.

 

[CLK350]

You know you can post the actual Twitter link? Just saying

Like this ? O ooooo .. thanks ;D

Although on second thought .. the way I did it prevents link rot issues where if the original Tweet is deleted at least there is a record kept locally - unless TMC does the smart thing, to automatically save a local copy on its server - is that the case? Maybe someone knows, else that should go to the TMC suggestions/ improvements thread

https://twitter.com/x/status/1387758278885711874

 

[Singuy]

Without the Florida crash and subsequent media attack, we would be at $800 now, I’m absolutely sure about this. The media was able to take control of the narrative, from the just released safety report which showed a 10x safety improvement with Autopilot, to blaming Autopilot for the death of two people. Basically the media (with the help of Consumer Reports) were able to completely change public opinion about Tesla Autopilot and FSD.

This is what killed the TSLA momentum and it cost us at least $100 in stock price, and a few million net worth for several of us here.

My only hope, once again, is what Cathy Wood predicted before: the longer the base, the bigger the break-out. I still believe TSLA will hit $1000 but no longer think it will be this year.

Nah. The ER definitely contributed to more worries than not.

1. New batteries not reliable for cars yet, 12-18months out. This is perhaps the biggest downer

2. Energy margins are even worst than q4 which means Tesla can't provide the cheap solar and make good margins like we have hoped. Also news that megapack margins are apparently awful too.

3. S/X delays and not even sure what Elon was saying. Tooling? Unreliable smart shift? No idea. He was mumbling about something there.

The positive of course were auto margins despite the headwinds and overwhelming demand going forward. But the call was pretty meh. Also even in the world where the call was super bullish, sp would probably take a dump anyways given the current macro sentiment towards growth stocks.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

C'mon y'all....through every dip...i could count on at least one thing...The TMC fam to pull all of us through, no need for negativity and gloom. That attitude is what the FUDsters are gunning for....we know what we have in Tesla, what the runway ramp is, and what the rest of 2021 is going to bring (somewhat)

Stay the course and brighter days are ahead....2 months maybe...6 months definitely

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla needs to change the way it releases data.
Elon rambling on incoherently on the ER every 3 months is not good enough with the headwinds they(we) are facing. ER answered all the questions no one cares about(in the short term anyway). Thanks for the in depth Bitcoin update MoC, but no one cares........
Give us some guidance on P&D levels , low ball to sandbag if you must, but give the investors and Wall Street something to look at or look forward to.

Wise up MoC......you are in control of the most shorted company on the planet and you get the investors beat up by FUD due to no PR department.
Sure, Tesla dosnt need it, and Elon has stated multiple times he dosnt care about the stock price, we sure do though.
Utterly stupid. Constant shroud of mystery.

Still here, won’t sell, can’t sell.....can’t buy.
Stuck

edit: I’m not trying to be a little whiny ungrateful child, & word of mouth has gone a LOOONG ways, but wtf, have a press release outside of the ER. Elon says “don’t wanna talk about that here at the ER, OK, talk about it somewhere else then....

I disagreed with you because I've owned high growth stocks in which the management was always trying to engineer perfection in terms of public appearances. Yes, it can help boost share price during good times but when the sugar hits the fan and everything isn't perfect, then the share price gets mercilessly punished. If you want drama and huge swings, that's the way to go. But in the end the company is not worth more or less than the actual results so I would prefer to have management focus more time on the nuts and bolts of the business and less time and energy on glossy presentations that add no true underlying value to the company.

Elon Musk is much more of a very valuable strategic thinker than a good talking PR man. Trevor Milton was a good talker. Maybe his image can be given a makeover so Tesla could hire him to run the ,calls and pump up the share price. Personally, I like hearing it straight from the mouth of the central nervous system of the company. It no longer bothers me that he rambles on - it's more like he's sending a message, which is to say he doesn't respect the financial types that analyze our business because they have repeatedly shown they can't understand, even when you show them directly what you are doing. He's more than earned the right to that.

Management's time and energy are extremely valuable things that are finite and they need to be used where they will do the most good, not to the immediate share price, but to the growth of the business and underlying mission.

 

[Singuy]

C'mon y'all....through every dip...i could count on at least one thing...The TMC fam to pull all of us through, no need for negativity and gloom. That attitude is what the FUDsters are gunning for....we know what we have in Tesla, what the runway ramp is, and what the rest of 2021 is going to bring (somewhat)

Stay the course and brighter days are ahead....2 months maybe...6 months definitely

Tesla is following macros of high PE stocks and renewable stocks. I would say it's doing better than expected. Also demand is insane to the point that I thought maybe we have production issues but no, it's just that cars are flying off the factory floor.

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla needs to change the way it releases data.
Elon rambling on incoherently on the ER every 3 months is not good enough with the headwinds they(we) are facing. ER answered all the questions no one cares about(in the short term anyway). Thanks for the in depth Bitcoin update MoC, but no one cares........
Give us some guidance on P&D levels , low ball to sandbag if you must, but give the investors and Wall Street something to look at or look forward to.

Wise up MoC......you are in control of the most shorted company on the planet and you get the investors beat up by FUD due to no PR department.
Sure, Tesla dosnt need it, and Elon has stated multiple times he dosnt care about the stock price, we sure do though.
Utterly stupid. Constant shroud of mystery.

Still here, won’t sell, can’t sell.....can’t buy.
Stuck

edit: I’m not trying to be a little whiny ungrateful child, & word of mouth has gone a LOOONG ways, but wtf, have a press release outside of the ER. Elon says “don’t wanna talk about that here at the ER, OK, talk about it somewhere else then....

Stick to what you know; spanking - hmm. Well, just pick something else.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Haven't we all learned that $TSLA goes down after an earnings report where they kill all the numbers?? Everyone here is acting like they're surprised and the hyper growth is stagnant.....Our CEO lands rockets...let that sink in before anything else

 

[SOULPEDL]

Nah. The ER definitely contributed to more worries than not.

1. New batteries not reliable for cars yet, 12-18months out. This is perhaps the biggest downer

2. Energy margins are even worst than q4 which means Tesla can't provide the cheap solar and make good margins like we have hoped. Also news that megapack margins are apparently awful too.

3. S/X delays and not even sure what Elon was saying. Tooling? Unreliable smart shift? No idea. He was mumbling about something there.

The positive of course were auto margins despite the headwinds and overwhelming demand going forward. But the call was pretty meh. Also even in the world where the call was super bullish, sp would probably take a dump anyways given the current macro sentiment towards growth stocks.

You forgot the FSD comment "It's really hard." That was my chill pill for the show. There's trouble here I think, it's the humans.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Today we had our Model 3 filter changed and foam-cleaned (Tesla service in my driveway). It smells wonderful now!
I mentioned stock price to the tech, and he goes "Why, is it below 600?" He really didn't seem to care - impressed again! They must feed them spinach or something.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I might buy more.
I will not sell.
Fundamentals are improving.
but