Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tschmidty]

The new Powerwall+ spec sheet has a wider crop of the image posted earlier with more of the bike visible (lo-res, sorry).

While I can see wanting something else besides the PW/meter in a marketing photo, the bike is not an obvious choice (ostensibly a bike needs no power at all). The back of a white M3, for example, would have worked.

I have a hard time seeing this as anything other than a Tesla e-bike tease, as was posited earlier. And I want one of them more than I want the cyberquad.

View attachment 658586

This rendering bugs the heck out of me since the meter should be on the outside of the garage so the implication is the power wall and bike are sitting outside the garage. I get why they did it because a meter is more recognizable than a panel so this more obviously shows how the powerwall sits between the meter and the panel but it is still very wrong.

 

[2daMoon]

Very interesting!

I didn't think they would bother to move the cement plant when they have sooo much other land in Texas. (Pretty sure they have a contractual obligation to ensure an alternate site for Martin Marietta)
Since the new site is apparently the same size as the current very large building, it seems logical that it will be - more or less - a clone. If true, then WOW.
Co-location of the soon to be two adjacent factories must be worth more than I thought.

This is very good news.

Could be they used an existing address there to represent all of the Tesla land as that address is used for mail and deliveries. If so, the new construction may be West of the toll road in the land they have been clearing. Including the SpaceX facility that is likely going on the pad being finished there.

Looking forward to see if they start connecting buildings with Boring Company tunnels. Cathode plant to Battery section of main building would be a good first candidate. It wouldn't surprise me to see a network of tunnels between sites duplicating what they did at LVCC. Even the main plant, which was mentioned in a drone video as being 3/4 of a mile in length might benefit from 2 or three stops on a tunnel path beneath or beside it.

It also seems reasonable to expect construction for other Musk companies on site, as well as the Tesla HQ, as has been mentioned. Wasn't Neuralink advertising for jobs in Austin recently? Boring has an office now in Pflugerville and SpaceX is already building (Starlink factory?) on the TeraFactory site.

 

[Lessmog]

For sure a Tesla e-bike would sell plenty, but that just looks like an ordinary bike to me .. (?)

The new Powerwall+ spec sheet has a wider crop of the image posted earlier with more of the bike visible (lo-res, sorry).

While I can see wanting something else besides the PW/meter in a marketing photo, the bike is not an obvious choice (ostensibly a bike needs no power at all). The back of a white M3, for example, would have worked.

I have a hard time seeing this as anything other than a Tesla e-bike tease, as was posited earlier. And I want one of them more than I want the cyberquad.

View attachment 658586

I agree with you.

seat tube not tubular to hold a hidden electric motor.
downtube too small to hold significative amount of batteries.

this looks like a debranded regular carbon road bike frame.

with this tube geometry, it would be holding a really small electric motor with some batteries to push 200 watts for couple minutes but not the range of the Trek Domane+ or Specialized Turbo. Unless Tesla has decided to surprise us, again, which means I would have to add another bike in my crowded basement.

Oh, it's most likely just one of those show concept models. Reality will be much different.

 

[2daMoon]

Oh, it's most likely just one of those show concept models. Reality will be much different.

I expect the Cyberbike will be made from folded stainless steel and have a pedal-assist 0-60 time under 2 seconds.

 

[joh01652]

I agree with you.

seat tube not tubular to hold a hidden electric motor.
downtube too small to hold significative amount of batteries.

this looks like a debranded regular carbon road bike frame.

with this tube geometry, it would be holding a really small electric motor with some batteries to push 200 watts for couple minutes but not the range of the Trek Domane+ or Specialized Turbo. Unless Tesla has decided to surprise us, again, which means I would have to add another bike in my crowded basement.

Actually, they've made road bikes with with small motors and battery packs for awhile now to assist pro riders (illegally, of course) at strategic times during a race. As a racer yourself, imagine the benefit of a small motor to give you just 15-30 watt bump in your power output at certain times during your race--monster advantage if used judiciously.

"Motorized doping" is why organizers now regularly scan bikes for magnetism at the start line of major international competitions like the Tour de France.

The tiny motors can also pose a problem if you forget to shut off the constant-output motor while descending--check out this 20 second clip from the 2014 Vuelta a Espana:

If this link doesn't work, try this 3 minute video:

If anyone can make a sophisticated e-road bike, it's Tesla.

 

[kbM3]

From the plan:


So a full 4 quarters, not 4x one quarter.

Also, just to confirm, once a level is reached, it counts even if it later is not satisfied.

That’s such great news. If I did the math correctly, Tesla is now stating it’s probable that they will achieve an astounding 75%+ revenue growth this year. It’s no wonder the stock popped Friday after Gary Black tweeted about this and drawing even more attention to it in addition to Pierre.

I believe Tesla now thinks it will exceed 900k this year and knowing Elon’s propensity for big round numbers and audacious goals, plus the supplier leaks, plus Tesla’s internal call leak, I would say the odds are very good the internal goal really is 1M vehicles this year

AND even more astounding, if we put together Elon’s statement that cell orders from suppliers will double next year in addition to Tesla’s stated goal of 100 GWh internal 4680 production (and a 200 GWh / year rate by the end of 2022), then 2M in 2022 seems likely to be their goal.

It’s all so unbelievable. I believe 50% annual growth for a large company in a capital intensive industry is unprecedented in human history and Tesla might be striving for 100% growth for the next couple of years?

 

[dm28997]

Super excited. Just paid for my Starlink kit as it became available in our area. Now I would like to get the CT ASAP and hook up Starlink to it. I might consider getting to Austin for the CT and drive it back to CA taking lots of National Park stops along the way. I'm assuming the CT will be made in Austin but perhaps Sparks or Fremont is possible. They may need more than one city to meet demand.
I have a folding electric bike(not so heavy) and a electric full suspension mountain bike which is heavy as I have to remove the battery pack to put it safely on our bike rack. A light weight air suspension mountain bike might be a hot item; I would pay 8 grand for a good one. The 4680 battery system in the bike structure might be killer.

 

[SOULPEDL]

For sure a Tesla e-bike would sell plenty, but that just looks like an ordinary bike to me .. (?)

Agree. That photo is saying something else to me and the bike just declares it a garage. It's the Meter next to their new inverter and PW trying to look very compact. I think this is the reason. Look at my connection mess. (looks better painted same as the house color). But still, imagine adding another 8 Kw system! Where? I saw a photo of an install in Scottdale where the power was on the wall facing the street and all this got mounted around it - Plain sight from the street.

I'm not really liking the padlocks on my own equipment, and "DO NOT Touch" basically all over my power panel. This is both the sore spot and the expensive part in labor. It took 4-5 heads about 2 days for an 8kw+2PW system, and using my existing conduit underground to the garage where the batteries are kept cooler. Every home is unique, so maybe this explains the adjustments in pricing (however, the conventional solar seems to have dropped past 2 years from $38K US to $33K, same system today.

 

[2daMoon]

It’s all so unbelievable. I believe 50% annual growth for a large company in a capital intensive industry is unprecedented in human history and Tesla might be striving for 100% growth for the next couple of years?

Warren Redlich agrees...

 

[Lessmog]

Super excited. Just paid for my Starlink kit as it became available in our area. Now I would like to get the CT ASAP and hook up Starlink to it. I might consider getting to Austin for the CT and drive it back to CA taking lots of National Park stops along the way. I'm assuming the CT will be made in Austin but perhaps Sparks or Fremont is possible. They may need more than one city to meet demand.
I have a folding electric bike(not so heavy) and a electric full suspension mountain bike which is heavy as I have to remove the battery pack to put it safely on our bike rack. A light weight air suspension mountain bike might be a hot item; I would pay 8 grand for a good one. The 4680 battery system in the bike structure might be killer.

Sounds lovely!
But: for the time being, Starlink is limited to the "cell" where your operational address is, so it is not going to work if moved too far.
Someone on YT published an "unbox" video where he tried to install it at his sister's, 100 miles away, and it refused.

Possibly that will change in the (near?) future, seeing as SpaceX has applied for a license for use on ships and airplanes, IIUC. Maybe trucks too, eh?

 

[lafrisbee]

Is there a link where the new information is located.

I wish...I have had to wade through a sea of muck to harvest the few worthwhile clams of truth/facts.
For instance, I have read full on articles how the "pugilistic pose" of one of the occupants was an attempt to "fight off the fire" by the press.
Which could not be further from the truth/facts. For those that didn't educate themselves on the matter (and really why would you? Just take the words of the press as fact):
Pugilistic attitude (posture)

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

The new Powerwall+ spec sheet has a wider crop of the image posted earlier with more of the bike visible (lo-res, sorry).

While I can see wanting something else besides the PW/meter in a marketing photo, the bike is not an obvious choice (ostensibly a bike needs no power at all). The back of a white M3, for example, would have worked.

I have a hard time seeing this as anything other than a Tesla e-bike tease, as was posited earlier. And I want one of them more than I want the cyberquad.



View attachment 658586

FWIW. Design looks heavily inspired by the Cannondale Slice.

 

[22522]

Sounds lovely!
But: for the time being, Starlink is limited to the "cell" where your operational address is, so it is not going to work if moved too far.
Someone on YT published an "unbox" video where he tried to install it at his sister's, 100 miles away, and it refused.

Possibly that will change in the (near?) future, seeing as SpaceX has applied for a license for use on ships and airplanes, IIUC. Maybe trucks too, eh?

That is changing. It will work on RVs (soon) and they got permission to lower the orbit for better service.

FCC approves SpaceX change to its Starlink network, a win despite objections from Amazon and others

The Federal Communications Commission approved SpaceX's proposed modification of its Starlink satellite license on Tuesday, a win for Elon Musk's network.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Mengy]

AND even more astounding, if we put together Elon’s statement that cell orders from suppliers will double next year in addition to Tesla’s stated goal of 100 GWh internal 4680 production (and a 200 GWh / year rate by the end of 2022), then 2M in 2022 seems likely to be their goal.

I feel 2M in 2022 is too high. Yes its looking like battery production will be huge by the end of 2022 but we can't forget Tesla Energy will be growing as well, thus gobbling up quite a bit of that battery production. I don't think it will all be going into cars.

 

[lafrisbee]

But did you see what he drew!?

an "enhanced" self-portrait

 

[lafrisbee]

I agree with you.

seat tube not tubular to hold a hidden electric motor.
downtube too small to hold significative amount of batteries.

this looks like a debranded regular carbon road bike frame.

with this tube geometry, it would be holding a really small electric motor with some batteries to push 200 watts for couple minutes but not the range of the Trek Domane+ or Specialized Turbo. Unless Tesla has decided to surprise us, again, which means I would have to add another bike in my crowded basement.

Could you address the funkiness of the wheel/tire thingy to us guy's that owned a 10-speed back in the 70's?

 

[JRP3]

Could you address the funkiness of the wheel/tire thingy to us guy's that owned a 10-speed back in the 70's?

Aerodynamics.

 

[JRP3]

The construction of the Tesla Gigafactory in Grünheide has been delayed - and with it the start of production. It was supposed to start in July, but there are several problems, reports German Tagesschau.

Tesla Giga Berlin Will Rather Be Late In The Year

Giga Berlin will probably be in winter, rather than in summer: The construction of the Tesla Gigafactory in Grünheide has been delayed - and with it the start of production. It was supposed to start in July, but there are several problems, reports German Tagesschau.

www.torquenews.com

 

[avoigt]

Tesla Giga Berlin Will Rather Be Late In The Year

Giga Berlin will probably be in winter, rather than in summer: The construction of the Tesla Gigafactory in Grünheide has been delayed - and with it the start of production. It was supposed to start in July, but there are several problems, reports German Tagesschau.

www.torquenews.com

That's incorrect. Unfortunately, there is a lot of incorrect information at Torque news with click-bait in particular about Giga Berlin which is why I declined to publish for them.

Giga Berlin may be delayed but as of now nothing is official and all is speculation.

 

[MXWing]

Is it just me or is Elon Twitter now better than earnings calls? I feel like he's giving so much with a bit of decoding we know, somewhat, when v9 hits and how good it will be, updates on Model Y 22/23 beating Corolla for #1 spot, updates on Texas crash and many details.

Also, something I noticed since 2020 is that Elon/Tesla have been sandbagging and coy on their guidance/future plans.

In the past, Elon might have said "Aspirationally" they would aim for 1.2 million vehicles this year - pull off the IMPOSIBLE and get 1.15.

Huge miss on Tesla, 20% share tank afterwards.

Now they don't want to even mention 1 million which is great for longs and investors who have a chance to still get in.